Baccarat How to Spot a BAD System

The same trash gets said by everyone in casinos. I'll give you the same response..."sureeeee you are".... laughs.

 

C'mon people. Every Baccarat player totally believes past results don't affect future outcomes but we need to use Fallacies to make a decision and what is better than looking at past results? People like LungYeh in particular believes in one's LUCK trend which is also based on past events. He called them phases as Gitzmotron calls them streaks. The criteria to win is to bet according to the philosophy Dare to Win & Scared to lose.
The bottom line is It's all a choice. There is no right or wrong. It's how well you can make it work and you are at the mercy of DESTINY.

 

And if you guys wants to talk about MM, nothing is more superior than the proven Kelly Criterion but however Mr Kelly himself stress that it only works for stuffs with positive expectancy.
And yet many people still believes it can work for Baccarat. It's not fallacy based nor it is based on past events. It simply calculates the proper risk with the proper bankroll.

 

Craps you amaze me at times, this is a great post!!! You seem so close to cracking the glass ceiling when you posts similar to the post this quote . Imho you then veer off on an almighty tangent the total opposite swing of the pendulum like there are two separate posters posting . Please don’t think I’m critical or being hostile to you as that is not my intention in the slightest.

You are really quite knowledgeable but imho you do your self no favours by jumping around as you do. You are professional Marty man as your choice of m m , I support you on that and always will, as opposed to others here that lack your skills in Marty. I would suggest you take time to find that one selection criteria, read again, that One Selection criteria that will do you Marty m m justice. Pick one from the many and stick to it religiously aka per Nathan, soxfan etc they are one trick ponies ( no disrespect intended) and that one trick works for them.

Yes there is no right or wrong and I’m the first to repeat that over and over again, it cannot be stressed enough and I always appreciate you reposting that line as I have as well. I think you are at a stage with the skills, information, knowledge and m m that it’s time you found what’s right for you. Take some time, think, plan , take action, succeed , believe in yourself.
Good harvesting.
Cheers

 

Just to reiterate you are so close so often. By the way good reply to jbs, epic , but water off a ducks back with that one, too old too deaf too everything else the etc etc cover the rest lol.
Cheers

 

this is comical. when will people learn. reinventing the wheel gets you............. but another wheel.

 

Hi it's the math zombie, I'm back for a day, got brains?

Ok so seriously, let's chat. I would like to understand your side of the argument (equation). You said,

You use the term, "coincidence" and talk about finding it, and about also showing when it is not working in your favor. You state that real results are "evidence" as they occur.

The dictionary definition of "coincidence" is: a remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection.

Something which has no causal relationship should be utterly dismissed and not considered, as it is unconnected to outcome. The normal use of this term is literally to express, "ignore this, it means nothing". Coincidence cannot work in your favor or against you. It's kinda the purpose of the term: "Just a coincidence" usually followed by, "don't worry about it." You seem to be using it to suggest the exact opposite. It is perplexing.

My guess is that you are using divergent definitions for some of these words and phrases. Let's try to clarify so we are speaking the same language. I've run into these sorts of things before. When I asked 30 of my radio-show listeners for their definition of luck, I got thirty different answers, none of which Merriam Webster would have recognized.

What is your definition for:

1. Coincidence
2. Working in your favor
3. Evidence
4. Real results
5. Not working in your favor
6. Capacity to predict
7. Claim of prediction
8. Projecting

I have no illusions that you'll ever change your mind. That being said, I would at least like to understand what your viewpoint is, and where it comes from. Accurate communication is the first step.

After you have provided your definitions for those terms, I can give you mine and we can compare...that is, if you wish understanding.

 

Preparation MEETS Opportunity
= luck

 

As stated in my previous post, I polled thirty people and got thirty different definitions of "luck" none of which matched the dictionary.

I honestly wish I could convey to you how completely useless and confusing ending any statement you make with "=luck" is to me.

If I tried I would fail, suffice it to say, that by including that word anywhere in your message you have told me nothing.

I have no idea what you mean by it, because I have no idea what it means to you.

No one seems to use the dictionary definition.

 

It's worth nothing that most (not all) dictionary definitions of "luck", are retrospective ONLY, and imply that things in the past had a better outcome than expected. If you prepared extensively ,and encountered an "opportunity", it would completely preclude "luck" being involved entirely. You could not use the word in this situation without being grammatically incorrect.

However, now we need to define:
1. Preparation
2. Opportunity

99% sure they don't mean to you what they mean to me... So again, we have no understanding and only more confusion.

 

Luck is for the rabbit, hey hey.

 

P.S. I know you probably think I'm being obtuse at this point. I am truly not. I literally don't speak the same language. Well same letters and sounds, but with different meanings for all the words...

 

Trivia: if you say, "I got lucky" or "I had luck" you are directly implying that you did something that should have resulted in failure, but due to no fault of your own just happened to fail to fail. Anyone using the term "luck" is implicitly admitting to having done something they should not have done.

It's origins are as an insult...

It's not used in true professional gambling circles, as it is an asthma, and something we try to avoid.

 

Frank, I try to understand what you are saying. For the benefit of mankind, can you advise what is your conclusion on baccarat gaming :-

1) baccarat cannot be beat because its an unclimbable mountain being negative expectancy?

2) if so, do you advise to stay away from the game?

3) is there anything that is positive expectancy that you would recommend we spend our time, efforts and money at? A climbable mountain; if you will?

Thank you for your discourse and for sharing your knowledge and intellect with us. Seriously Frank, I do not measure up but would like a conclusive recommendation. Thank you

 

How do you like your coffee? Who knows and who cares? But...... sugar, milk is definitely IMPORTANT stuffs to enhance the flavor.
Luck itself is the favorable OR desired outcome of an event determined by chance and NOT by skill. However one has to be in it to get it thus PREPARATION. Even when you have preparation, the intended action has to executed at the right time thus OPPORTUNITY.

 

It is my guess that baccarat is not beatable. It's a guess. If you read my article and it seems you have (I hope you liked the Poem at the end) it was really about how we should never guess, as our minds lie to us if given even the slightest opportunity. I mean dam dude, things we eat are better at this than we are. That's not really funny.

I managed a Baccarat Team for an investor. My duties were primarily doing the books and keeping the players honest. I did not play. I will let this tidbit of info tell all. He offered me 25% of the net win. I politely said, "could I just get an hourly wage?" I was the only one who ended up ahead.

Maybe baccarat is beatable, maybe it isn't. I'm not interested in spending several years crunching the necessary numbers to try to figure it out conclusively. I'm working now at a new job, trying to create new curriculum for our next generation to help them overcome some of the new hurdles society and technology is putting in our way. That is my focus.

I can't tell you what's true. I can, however, tell you what is required to know for a fact that what you believe is true.

I do not see this level of due diligence in the field of "baccarat". Not by a long shot. I see a lot of guessing, biased record keeping, errant conclusions, and a flock of chickens laughing...

I am of course always willing to admit I'm wrong. Honestly, wish it happened more often.

~FK

 

I'm going to have to contemplate all that for a bit longer. I'm scheduled to work at 7am creating training material for handicapped and autistic children. I'll pick this up next week.

I really enjoy these discussions and look forward to next time.

Sincerely,

Frank Kneeland

 

Frank, I supported a home for handicapped children locally and am personal friends with the lady who runs the home. What kind of programs are you doing?

 

I felt I am obligated to answer this one.
Lost my life savings at Baccarat
Quit for good BUT burning question is. Can Baccarat be beaten? Is it me or is it the game?
Make big decision by going to the other side of the table. What an eye opener. Worked in low limits and highest of limits and supervised the game too. Got to looked into the accounts of High Rollers. One day I will disclosed more in another post. It is not true the House always wins. They do grade players. There are lifetime winners. They are banned patrons and only allowed to play other games besides Baccarat. The vast majority of patrons lose because of #1 HUMAN FACTOR #2 The HOUSE EDGE #3 THE LAW OF AVERAGES.
The 2 actions that the House mostly unwelcomed. #1 HURTING THE HOUSE BIG WITH WINNINGS. #2 HIT & RUN.

Baccarat can't be beaten on paper meaning the Math part will not permit any MM or Bet Selection to win in the long run PROVIDED every probability and possibilities of events happening. This is known as Deductive Reasoning. Logically true and Realistically true.
But for an individual against the House where he could not possibly play more than 300.000 shoes in his lifetime and if he comes out with an approach that happens to go right MORE than WRONG, he could end up a winner. But even if that happens, the wins would be small because LoA can be generous BUT not generous enough for you to win big. This is called Inductive Reasoning. Logically true but not Realistically true. Anyway Inductive reasoning usually tilt towards Deductive reasoning. That's how the Math World is used for Gambling. There is another 2 Industries big on this and that is Town Planning and Insurance.

Regarding due diligence again it can be important. Is Law of Averages a false belief? Certainly not. In a binary outcome game one can't argue about one side being strong forever even it is possible. You have to take into account of an INDIVIDUAL destiny with the shoes that he encounters. If I have 2-3 shoes in a row in my records that shows a BIG disparity of more P over B, don't you think it is wise to bet more B over P in the subsequent shoes? It does not mean I will win but if I do this many times, I totally belief LOA will do it for me. That is why I always use the quote. Don't try to beat the House but let the House beat itself. It's very simple. The House wouldn't want everybody to lose. They want winners as well as losers and that is where Baccarat can provide them

 

It can if you have the patience, skill, and awareness to target different phases of a gambling session.

1. You can use any bet selection technique that suits you.
2. You can observe the phases or conditions based on the results as you play.
3. You can tolerate the House's Edge and lose the mathematically expected number of hands
4. You can change the amount of your bets to suit the current condition in your session.
5. You can lose twice as many hands as you win if you can bet half as much during losing streaks.
6. You can win more than you lose if you bet twice as much during win streaks.
7. You can know the difference between a win streak and a losing streak.

It's up to you.