Baccarat Oscar's grind + baccarat

I still don't understand the thinking behind 'bet Banker only'.... just because it have slightly higher chance? I could understand more if OG is applied as MM..but about the BS 'only banker'? Hmm...hard to chew...

It's not I prefer player more, but......

On the other hand.. I wonder how if OG is combined with Sputnik March....

 

People always find an excuse or reason to do what they do in gambling. The probability of B over P is a very small one. There is however a hidden benefit that is by betting B only, the user will not have to deal with indecisions of what to bet so that he can concentrate on OG. Everything is structured and therefore Deviation is unlikely to happen. This will take care of the Human Factor. All these are healthy moves IMO.

 

I like your analogy, but I think of it more like this.

take two of the best teams in any sport and put them against each other over and over and over again. Both teams are fantastic, but the odds still favor one team slightly as the favor to win. You can bet on either sports team to win, but the slightly favored one pays 5% less, who will you bet on?

The slightly worse team will win almost a fair share of games, but in the long run, the better team will win more.

you have to go into this bet every game not knowing if the worse team is going to perform better. They might win two or three games in a row, we just don’t know. It still makes sense to bet on the favored one.

 

I totally understand your view but put some thought into the defense suggestion of NOT betting after any P appears to totally avoid all P runs. It's not going for B because that is what you try to explain to me. It is avoiding the P. You only allow yourself to lose ONCE on P after B ends. in other words, only bet B after you see a B.

 

The idea sounds good, and a lot of things seem great in retrospect, but for me it could potentially put me behind further. A perfect example is something me and Jmske were discussing earlier. Chops. We know these are common. I told him that they are a blessing and a curse.

They suck because you are losing commission every time bank hits, but then taking a step back when it chops. We’re obviously hoping for two banks in a row, but in the mean time, the chop can also help us by increasing our unit by 1 on every banker hit getting us closer to the end of a series if we are in a grind.

if I were to stop betting when player hits and begin again when banker does, I would be losing every hand I play on a chop.

let’s assume we are -76 betting 22.
after the slash is the current bet in unit size


p -88/22
B-76/23
P-89/23
B -76/24
P-90/24
B -76/25
P -91/25
B -76/26
P -92/26
B -76/27
B -49/28
B -21/22
B +1

This was a fictitious sample, not a real shoe. This on the streak of bankers, OG recovers. Sure, we don’t know if that was going to happen or not, but in my fake scenario, I made it work. Haha. But now we’ll play it the same by stopping when player hits and resuming when bank does, increasing the grind the way we would had we been betting on the first bank that we miss.

p -88/22
B
P -111/23
B
P -135/24
B
P - 160/25
B
P -186/26
B
B -159/27
B -132/28
B -104

in this scenario, where we end the first OG example, we end at a plus 1. In this one we are now down 104 units. This is what I meant when I said it could potentially put me down further, at which point I wouldn’t know what to do. Take the loss I suppose, or keep grinding even though the series was over and hope like hell I don’t hit another player run.

So anyone could argue that we don’t know if it’s going to chop, we don’t know if player is going to go on a run. If we break down the possibilities and precautions on all the what if’s, it’ll put us down to never bet, but then again, maybe just bet once... and if we were to just bet once, I’d definitely pick bank.

 

Yeap. That's why it's -ve expectancy. Avoided the run BUT not the chops. By the way, I worked at the Mohegan Sun before moving to Vegas. The Stadium is at Casino of the Earth or Casino of the Sky?

 

Way too much thinking in my opinion.

Any fixed bet placement using any progression will have it's nemesis pattern. And every progression positive or negative will eventually win as long as you never hit the table max. Of course most of them are not practical.

Martingale will win. So will Foolproof. But both escalate to the moon. Foolproof a little better. OG claim to fame is it escalates slowly. Put it on a table with $25.00 minimum and $300.00 maximum and it cannot possibly win.

My small test outperforms B side by a substantial amount so far. Will it hold up? Maybe not but I'm pretty sute it will win. So we really are just competing over units per hour.

J

 

Hey Jae. Could you just start a new shoe with an “assumed” -20/5 deficit, sort of like you are carrying over from a previous losing shoe?

 

Well, burned around 1000GBP today started on Banker after -22 and here we go:
Last bet Player -61 GBP Lose -61 Total negative -641.8

Did not continued more because of 90 players and 50 bankers in all hands! Distribution was terrible, maybe online casinos cheats? 3shoes and all was player over banker almost double as much. Commissions just eating my funds.

 

Send me the shors.

 

P -1 -1 -1
P -1 -1 -2
P -1 -1 -3
P -1 -1 -4
P -1 -1 -5
B 1 0.95 -4.05
B 2 1.9 -2.15
P -3 -3 -5.15
P -3 -3 -8.15
B 3 2.85 -5.3
B 4 3.8 -1.5
P -5 -5 -6.5
B 5 4.75 -1.75
P -6 -6 -7.75
P -6 -6 -13.75
P -6 -6 -19.75
B 6 5.7 -14.05
P -7 -7 -21.05 Started to play here
P -7 -7 -28.05
P -7 -7 -35.05
P -7 -7 -42.05
B 7 6.65 -35.4
P -8 -8 -43.4
P -8 -8 -51.4
B 8 7.6 -43.8
P -9 -9 -52.8
P -9 -9 -61.8
P -9 -9 -70.8
P -9 -9 -79.8
P -9 -9 -88.8
P -9 -9 -97.8
P -9 -9 -106.8
B 9 8.55 -98.25
P -10 -10 -108.25
P -10 -10 -118.25
P -10 -10 -128.25
B 10 9.5 -118.75
B 11 10.45 -108.3
B 12 11.4 -96.9
P -13 -13 -109.9
P -13 -13 -122.9
P -13 -13 -135.9
B 13 12.35 -123.55
P -14 -14 -137.55
B 14 13.3 -124.25
B 15 14.25 -110
P -16 -16 -126
P -16 -16 -142
P -16 -16 -158
B 16 15.2 -142.8
B 17 16.15 -126.65
P -18 -18 -144.65
B 18 17.1 -127.55
P -19 -19 -146.55
P -19 -19 -165.55
B 19 18.05 -147.5
B 20 19 -128.5
B 21 19.95 -108.55
P -22 -22 -130.55
B 22 20.9 -109.65
P -23 -23 -132.65
B 23 21.85 -110.8
P -24 -24 -134.8
B 24 22.8 -112
P -25 -25 -137
B 25 23.75 -113.25
P -26 -26 -139.25
P -26 -26 -165.25
B 26 24.7 -140.55
B 27 25.65 -114.9
P -28 -28 -142.9
B 28 26.6 -116.3
P -29 -29 -145.3
B 29 27.55 -117.75
B 30 28.5 -89.25
P -31 -31 -120.25
P -31 -31 -151.25
P -31 -31 -182.25
P -31 -31 -213.25
P -31 -31 -244.25
B 31 29.45 -214.8
B 32 30.4 -184.4
P -33 -33 -217.4
B 33 31.35 -186.05
P -34 -34 -220.05
P -34 -34 -254.05
B 34 32.3 -221.75
B 35 33.25 -188.5
P -36 -36 -224.5
P -36 -36 -260.5
P -36 -36 -296.5
B 36 34.2 -262.3
P -37 -37 -299.3
P -37 -37 -336.3
B 37 35.15 -301.15
B 38 36.1 -265.05
B 39 37.05 -228
B 40 38 -190
P -41 -41 -231
B 41 38.95 -192.05
P -42 -42 -234.05
P -42 -42 -276.05
P -42 -42 -318.05
P -42 -42 -360.05
P -42 -42 -402.05
B 42 39.9 -362.15
B 43 40.85 -321.3
P -44 -44 -365.3
B 44 41.8 -323.5
P -45 -45 -368.5
P -45 -45 -413.5
B 45 42.75 -370.75
P -46 -46 -416.75
B 46 43.7 -373.05
P -47 -47 -420.05
P -47 -47 -467.05
B 47 44.65 -422.4
P -48 -48 -470.4
B 48 45.6 -424.8
P -49 -49 -473.8
P -49 -49 -522.8
P -49 -49 -571.8
B 49 46.55 -525.25
B 50 47.5 -477.75
B 51 48.45 -429.3
B 52 49.4 -379.9
P -53 -53 -432.9
B 53 50.35 -382.55
B 54 54 -328.55
P -55 -55 -383.55
P -55 -55 -438.55
P -55 -55 -493.55
B 55 52.25 -441.3
P -56 -56 -497.3
P -56 -56 -553.3
B 56 53.2 -500.1
B 57 54.15 -445.95
B 58 55.1 -390.85
B 59 56.05 -334.8
P -60 -60 -394.8
P -60 -60 -454.8
B 60 57 -397.8
P -61 -61 -458.8
P -61 -61 -519.8
P -61 -61 -580.8
P -61 -61 -641.8

 

1 more suggestion Jae. I am more of a 'Defensive' player. After putting more thoughts into your approach, there is a way to slow down the volatility that is tackle the chop and the single B situation.
Try these few rules.
1. A chop of PBP, Flat bet B until it goes 2 in a row then add 1 unit. That way you don't keep escalating your progression.
2. After a B, if the preceding B is single and the P is 3x, Flat bet B
3. After a B, if the preceding B is single and the P is 4x or more, no bet

Losses has a way of getting to an OG player. It's not just chops. Single wins is devastating too.

 

Sorry to hear about your loss.

I haven’t gone through all of your results, but there’s one mistake in the beginning that throws everything off. It’s a simple mistake that I often warn people about because it can cost you your bankroll.

I put an arrow at this bet. You were down 1 unit at this point so the bet should have been 2. You were previously betting 3 units and instead of going down, you went up to 4 units. When you started the grind at -21.05 on your chart with a 7 unit bet, the actual grind is only at -8 with a 3 unit bet. This is going to cause your losses throughout this grind to cost probably more than double what it should be, your bets will probably be double what they should be as well. I’ll go through all your data in a little bit.
Again, sorry bro.

 

Thanks. I see this a lot. When I was testing soxfan suicide 11 step I noticed a lot of shoes that started imbalance increased the imbalance! That's anecdotal of course. Modt shoes end up within 4 or 5 off the mark but....that's why I think the -20 stuff is hit or miss. Timing, good or bad can go either way.

Who knows the very next shoe could start wiyh 6 B IAR and save or 6 more P !!!!!!

But good chance to come back before losing 2000 units or hit the max wall.

 

Craps,
Interesting concept. On #1 you say bet B until it goes 2IAR then add 1U.Do you mean add 1U if it loses 2IAR? And do you keep adding 1U every time it loses 2IAR? If so do you ever go back to 1U. Thanks

Mark

 

I’ve gone through your play and eliminated mistakes.

your final outcome was -641 betting 61 units

it should have been -373 betting 49

did you track anymore hands after this?


P -1/1

P -2/1

P -3/1

P -4/1

P -5/1

B -4/2

B -2/3

P -5/3

P -8/3

B -5/4

B -1/2 this is important. The object of OG is to end the series at +1. We have to drop our bet to 2 now, because if it wins we’ll be at +1

P -3/2

B -1/2

P -3/2

P -5/2

P -7/2

B -5/3

P -8/3 this is where you reached -21.05

P -11/3

P -14/3

P -17/3

B -14/4

P -18/4

P -22/4 this is where I would start

B -18/5

P -23/5

P -28/5

P -33/5

P -38/5

P -43/5

P -48/5

P -53/5

B -48/6

P -54/6

P -60/6

P -66/6

B -60/7

B -53/8

B -45/9

P -54/9

P -63/9

P -72/9

B -63/10

P -73/10

B -63/11

B -52/12

P -64/12

P -76/12

P -88/11

B -76/13

B -63/14

P -77/14

B -63/15

P -78/15

P -93/15

B -78/16

B - 62/17

B -45/18

P -63/18

B -45/19

P -64/19

B -45/20

P -65/20

B -45/21

P -66/21

B -45/22

P -67/22

P -89/22

B -67/23

B -44/24

P -68/24

B -44/25

P -69/25

B -44/26

B -18/19 Here we are again, the bet drops because if we win the next outcome that will put us at +1

P -37/19

P -56/19

P -75/19

P -94/19

P -113/19

B -94/20

B -74/21

P -95/21

B -74/22

P -96/22

P -118/22

B -96/23

B -73/24

P -97/24

P -121/24

P -145/24

B -121/25

P -146/25

P -171/25

B -146/26

B -120/27

B -93/28

B -65/29

P -94/29

B -65/30

P -95/30

P -125/30

P -155/30

P -185/30

P -215/30

B -185/31

B -154/32

P -186/32

B -154/33

P -187/33

P -220/33

B -187/34

P -221/34

B -187/35

P -222/35

P -257/35

B -222/36

P -258/36

B -222/37

P -259/37

P -296/37

P -333/37

B -296/38

B -258/39

B -219/40

B -179/41

P -220/41

B -179/42

B -137/43

P -180/43

P -223/43

P -266/43

B -223/44

P -267/44

P -311/44

B -267/45

B -222/46

B -176/47

B -119/48

P -177/48

P -225/48

B -177/49

P -226/49

P -275/49

P -324/49

P -373/49

 

You have to adhere to the very basics of OG which is add 1 after a win and all one is looking for is 1 unit win in a series and starts all over again. in # 1 rule IF you are down few units after a chop of PBP (and only a chop) bet B with your usual units and when you win PBPB do not add 1 unit, Just flat bet the previous unit and when you win again PBPBB then add 1 more unit UNLESS the targarted series win of 1 unit does not require that addition.

 

This is more damaging than a normal 8 step Martingale of 255 units

 

Thanks Craps, that clears it up.

 

No I did not recorded more hands, I got angry (my problem) and switch off the game. Just saved results.
I got few more bad shoes before this one also, but today all day, Player just streaks.