1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Baccarat Backyard Baccarat Video Lessons for Oscar’s Grind

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jae, May 3, 2021.

  1. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2020
    Likes:
    386
    Location:
    Malaysia

    Judge are there many -20 shoes?
     
  2. judge

    judge Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2019
    Likes:
    138
    Location:
    Texas
    That's probably a question for Jae. I don't count shoes. I play with a lot of patience. I don't really care how long it takes me to win 20U as long as I win 20U. I guess it's different than most folks. That's why this strategy is right for me. Most would die of boredom.
     
    Jae and Lungyeh like this.
  3. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    343
    Location:
    Connecticut
    He’s
    He’s right. You can and most likely will lose. The longer you play, the more times you’ll lose. Don’t go into this thinking your invincible.

    He’s also right about being able to go for months before getting killed off. Take advantage of this time. Set a goal for 5-10% if your bankroll each day, I will do another lesson soon about how we increase our unit size after we have made back our initial investment and when we would rest and split our bankroll into what we call “backup bankrolls.”

    I 100% believe if played properly and you manage your bankroll properly and avoid making mistakes or letting your emotions ruin your play, you can make more money than you’ll lose.
     
    Andrew and soxfan like this.
  4. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    343
    Location:
    Connecticut
    It is very boring, which can be a recipe for disaster for anyone that enjoys gambling. Having an accountability partner on your team so that you don’t go off making random bets is what I consider a must if you want to turn a profit in the long run. You have to shake impulses before playing this and treat it like a business.

    We only load the shoes that we play in our excel sheet every night. For me to figure out the percentage of shoes that reach -20 against those that don’t would take me quite a bit of time. It’s hard to even say how long we’ve gone without seeing one, since we play two shoes simultaneously, we almost always have action. There are days that we have spent 3-4 hours with no action. Days like that suck for sure. It’s VERY boring. And if you were playing alone, probably even more so.

    I’m not against waiting for -10 as a trigger. I think it would be a good one. I see this happen almost one a shoe, sometimes twice. It might even average out to once a shoe.

    if I were only playing one shoe at a time, I might actually start at a -10 trigger.
    In a few weeks we’re going to a casino in Pennsylvania that has stadium baccarat with 4 shoes playing at once. I think we are going to wait for -40 or -50.

    if you are playing two shoes at once, I recommend waiting for -20. At least once or twice a week, we get into big grinds on both shoes at the same time. This would and can get very hectic even for a team, and if you were playing by yourself, it would be very easy to make mistakes. In January, one of my teammates made a mistake that we didn’t catch in time. On one shoe we were betting 41 units, and about 8 units on the other shoe. He mixed them up, and of course the shoe that we were supposed to be betting 41 units on won and we only made 8 units. And the shoe we were supposed to bet 8 units on lost 41 units. Instead of chasing it, we marked it up as a loss and resumes the series kicking ourselves. It just gets fast paced sometimes.

    this will be our first time playing 4 shoes at once when we try the new casino. After say one, I think we’ll have a good idea of what we want our trigger to be. I’m really excited about this prospect. For one, we’ll be there doe a week staying in the hotel, and since we are there to work, we’ll most likely put in long days. We might even start splitting shifts if we have another teammate by that time. But I doubt that last part.
     
  5. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2020
    Likes:
    157
    Location:
    Canada
    • Violation of Rule #1: Be Respectful
    Backyard BS started talking to some backyard people who do what i need and THIS IS BUUSHEET GET OUT OF HERE JAEASS
     
  6. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    343
    Location:
    Connecticut
    Is someone upset that I can actually explain the method I use. For someone who wrote a post titled “iownit,” you sure as hell didn’t own shit.
     
    Mako, TLF and soxfan like this.
  7. tonyxc2001

    tonyxc2001 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2019
    Likes:
    0
    Location:
    australia
    Hey Jae

    Can you please play this shoe please... ? just want to make sure I am calculating this correctly

    it appears to be a losing shoe

    Hands
    1 P
    2 B
    3 B
    4 P
    5 B
    6 P
    7 B
    8 B
    9 P
    10 P
    11 P
    12 B
    13 P
    14 P
    15 B
    16 B
    17 P
    18 B
    19 P
    20 P
    21 P
    22 P
    23 B
    24 P
    25 P
    26 P
    27 B
    28 B
    29 P
    30 P
    31 B
    32 P
    33 P
    34 P
    35 P
    36 P
    37 B
    38 B
    39 P
    40 P
    41 P
    42 P
    43 B
    44 P
    45 B
    46 B
    47 P
    48 B
    49 P
    50 P
    51 P
    52 B
    53 B
    54 P
    55 B
    56 P
    57 P
    58 B
    59 P
    60 B
    61 P
    62 P
    63 P
    64 B
    65 P
    66 P
    67 P
    68 B
    69 P
    70 P
    71 P
    72 P
    73 P
    74 P
    75 B
    76 P

    Thanks
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2021

  8. tonyxc2001

    tonyxc2001 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2019
    Likes:
    0
    Location:
    australia
    my calculations were wrong..... disregard..... sorry
     
  9. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    343
    Location:
    Connecticut
    I ran through it real quick, I was negative on my count. Ended the shoe -256 betting 20.
     
  10. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2020
    Likes:
    157
    Location:
    Canada
    Jae what method is this, wait for minus 20 and start betting, you are not playing blackjack where math and numbers can steer you in the right direction, there is no probability in your system, even in blackjack when the numbers come up and say now is the time to bet does not mean you are goin to win that shoe, it is over a period of time that having the numbers in the right place will make you a winner doing this is what makes card counting a winner but you are waiting for nothing that makes sense
     
  11. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    343
    Location:
    Connecticut
    Alrelax, are things so slow on your site that you have to come over here and troll. At the very least, make one profile and put your name on it. You live a miserable existence, be open about it, stop creating fake accounts.
     
    soxfan likes this.
  12. tonyxc2001

    tonyxc2001 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2019
    Likes:
    0
    Location:
    australia
    Hi Jae

    That shoe was from Zumma, so in that case you would have continued the count straight away with a new shoe starting at hand 1?

    I tested the very next shoe in Zumma and another shoe from hell the count went further negative guess when you have to grind..... it is going to be some clenching buttcheeks moments!
     
  13. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2020
    Likes:
    157
    Location:
    Canada
    Who is Alrelax??
     
  14. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    343
    Location:
    Connecticut
    Correct, I go shoe to shoe. It can get wild. OG can be scary for most.
     

  15. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2020
    Likes:
    1,287
    Occupation:
    CEO, manager of sublease my account name.inc
    Location:
    Troll tag team one accounts head , Skipptophia.
    Jae what sort of time frame do you play? The OG is time consuming and can be a complete wash if mistakes are made do you find a particular shift better than other times of day. When I was working out methods years ago mind you this was before stadium style I found that I could get the peace and quiet or rather less interruptions by playing in high rollers room between 11:00pm and 5:00am Sunday to Thursday . To note minimum bets $100 and UNLIMITED free hands . Lol those were the days. Lol.
    On a quiet night the dealers lived me as we could churn a shoe in 1/2 hour . Made their incredibly slow night a bit quicker.

    So I would assume you don’t play Friday night or Saturday as competition for screen would be problem, my experience of the weekend is don’t bother and I’m only flat betting let alone trying to build bets in odd denominations. Seems to me to weekends would be hard to get 4 teammates screen side by side. Or is the scattered approach for flying under the casino radar in play.
    I ask as I take break, sole trader and find I have a time frame that gives me more opportunity to get a screen, no to little disruption, my entry and exit from the casino ( traffic on roads) is also at the optimum time which all lumped together gives me excellent kpi for time spent. Let me know if you can Cheers
     
  16. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2018
    Likes:
    251
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    A sensible question Jae. Roughly how many units you can win on a good day?

    Have you ever thought of having a ZIG ZAG win graph that moves higher from plateau to plateau like mine?

    Have a STOP LOSS of lower proportions and have the AVERAGE DAILY WINS and AVERAGE WINNING DAYS AGAINST STOP LOSS DAYS to see whether it can be achieved. The biggest of the big picture to justify the meaning of the word GRIND. Right now, like LY said the drawdowns is not for the faint of heart.

    For me AVERAGE speaking, Win 5 1/2 days ( 8 x 5 1/2 ) = 44 units to 1 losing day of 24-31 units depending where the bust is BEFORE that daily 8 unit win. a real grind in the long run.

    Longest winning streak is 52 days in a row ( 52x8 ) = 416 units which coincidentally is the total number of cards for an eight deck Baccarat shoe. Worst record is 2 busts of 31 units and 26 units in 3 days. I used until my Plan C to get it back. Plan D and Plan E still unused till today.
     
  17. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2018
    Likes:
    251
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    There is no such thing as REFUSED to lose like what you are doing now.
    Why a 5 step Marty and NOT 11 step Marty?
    This is where and how My plan works. The MM Marty is just a tool.
    The planning is the key but one HAS to play for a while to find the balance point of HOW MUCH PER DAY AGAINST A STOP LOSS ?
    I gave it away and nobody realized what I had contributed and that's OK.
    Is there a better figure? Sure, but I am comfortable and satisfied with what I have for now.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2021
  18. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    343
    Location:
    Connecticut
    Our best day with my current team was 416 units in an hour and a half.

    My best friend thought he was meeting us at 12:00 in the afternoon. But everyone else was on board to meet at 2:00. So he just hung out tracking a shoe. Called me and said it’s negative 100, get up here. When we arrived and had our money ready to go, the grind was in the high negative 400’s. Took us less than two shoes to clear the series and we decided to call it a day.

    some days we hit our goal in as fast as 5 hours, we take a vote on whether to stay or go. If we stay we usually clear 300 units. I still like to think that we average around 200 a day, although it’s probably more like 180-190 as of late.
     
  19. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    343
    Location:
    Connecticut
    We see 15+ players in a row probably almost once a week. So even with a virtual start of waiting for 4 in a row before implementing it, we wouldn’t even be able to bet $100 between the 4 of us. I think starting out at $25 a piece we would hit table max on the tenth bet.

    But even if we did do that with a ten tier Marty, how many times will we see our trigger in a shoe, maybe 4?

    To really top it off, I remember years ago a shoe that had 19 players, and 16 more in the same shoe. That’s obviously rare, but I never would have to worry about losing my current bankroll in one shoe, let alone twice in the same one.

    I actually admire the fact that you have the balls to pull it off and the brains to make it work. People tell me that OG takes guts when I’m a few hundred negative in the grind, but to me, I’m like, a few hundred is just 10 or 15% of my bankroll. I feel confident I’ll survive it. Getting to my last bet in that martingale, I’d be sweating my ass off knowing that I have a $60,000 bet riding on one more chance that’s just a hair over 50%. I don’t have the guts to throw it out there like that. Don’t get me wrong, I know the potential of the Marty, I see hundreds of bets on a daily basis I could have won. But OG fits my comfort zone.
     
  20. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2018
    Likes:
    251
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Oh NO, I am not asking you to use Marty . Your MM is OG with good reasons. The point is have a Stop of smaller proportions instead of 2000 and use your daily wins to recoup that and then call those extra units above the BUST as true profits.
    Say you bust your 2000 units. With the info you provided above, you average 200 a day. Now you need 10 days to recoup that. If your bust is set at 1000 units, you ONLY need 5 winning days. If your ratio of winning days against a bust of 1000 units is say 8 to 1 then you are in the positive.
    Right now averaging 200 units with NO Bust is a bit far- fetched to many .
     

Share This Page