Baccarat My full take on Jae's OG and why it works and why it won't

Looks like Jae's OG is currently the TALK on this forum.
This is my view as I am familiar with OG.
If you were to dissect Jae's OG, it is actually Flat Betting AFTER a loss and Positive D'Alembert after a win. The process alternate between each other and the Betting will increase in a conservative manner. The pace could be accelerated with alternating WLWL etc. making the Flat Betting goes higher and higher in Tiers.

As a dealer myself on the other side of the table, I had mentioned that it was NOT the intention of the casino towards so called NEGATIVE SYSTEMS players who win SMALL amount most of the time and lost everything back on a bad run. It is how these systems works. On the casino side they are FORCED to do a POSITIVE SYSTEM against these players. The question is, MAYBE POSITIVE SYSTEM or Betting positively is the way to win long term!

I too had mentioned the old man who uses 1 unit bankroll to win over the casino long term. He wins 50% of the time and loses 50% of the time with that unit. If he losses, he quits. If he wins and go on to 2nd unit and if successful he will try to win 3rd unit. If he loses 3rd bet he still win 1 unit and he quits too. He is bidding his time for those days where he can't lose a bet and could potentially win a lot. It is not whether we like it or not but if you were to dissect it, this man can't lose much and can a lot and that's the difference. ONLY PLAY ON A WINNING DAY. What has this got to do with Jae's OG? The daily 1 unit loss is not a loss. It is a TEMPORARY SETBACK or a DRAWDOWN or a NON-WRITE OFF LOSS.

I too packaged my approach with Marty with DRAWDOWNS and uses subsequent PLANS to recoup them. Jae is doing the same. I am not sure whether Jae has all of his OG method planned at the very beginning. Maybe after experiencing a substantial loss, he refuses to start all over again and kept on chasing with more bankroll and was able to recoup those initial losses. Now he had come to a point where 2000 units is the Bankroll that allows him to have long winning streaks. Even on that faithful session where he could potentially loses his 2000 Bankroll, he would have ENOUGH accumulated wins to cover that loss and start all over again.

So, actually Jae is PLAYING THE ROLE OF THE CASINO and the casino is playing the role of the patron. Besides the House edge of the 5% commission on Banker wins that he can't reversed, he do enjoy a 0.68% probability of more Banker outcomes. The DRAWDOWNS are the daily wins the systems players made from the casino. The eventual big loss the system players gave back to the casino is the COMEBACK that Jae did from the casino. There was once I dealt on a continuous shuffler with 6000+ on the scoreboard, there were close to 400 MORE P than B. Imagine the comeback needed and the commision on the 2800 B wins, Its 5% on 280K if the unit is $100. Jae would have busted his 200k bankroll on this session which is very RARE.

If this could be implemented by the Martingale player, people would have done it BUT Martingale has its limits because of it's aggressiveness but OG offers a WIDER Toleration of LOSSES because it's more conservative.

Imagine a WHALE playing with a small unit and treating his losses as SETBACKS and kept chasing with control and not recklessness with more Bankroll and more Bankroll. There are few such players at the place where I worked. The owner of RESORTS WORLD is one of them. Every year he would travel with a few Malaysian Tycoons and some retired Malaysian politicians. They have endless bankrolls and they all win but not much according to their standards.

So what makes it NOT work? Unrealistic bankroll and all losses are write offs and no continuation. Ther

 

Personally I think OG is very effective. It only increases the bet slowly. But as you mention WLWL will make it rise faster. But only if you are farther along in the progression. I, too, sometimes have to recover with higher units (I.e., 10, 15 or more units, just to get back to that +1 to restart). But I like it.

 

That part is easy BUT what is your loss toleration? The true reason why OG with Banker only wins. A Banker shoe with long B streaks is bound to come and that is Jae's NIRVANA. This requires the OG user a large Bankroll and patience and persistence. Easy said than done. I can't do it for sure. Maybe with a group.

 

Playing with a group is a great idea. I have a high risk tolerance. I don’t use all Bankers but yes, that idea would work eventually. There just has to be cutoffs and rejoins in there. For instance, lose five in a row, get off the table and try again later starting where you left off perhaps. Or do like the one old man - lose one and wait. Bide your time until your time comes.

 

Craps.


You are doing great with 8 units per day as your win goal.

 

eight units a day , eight days a week. these are more then most players can get. of course these are 8 units won minus one or two units that have to be included as the cost of losing the 32 units on the 6 th day, or 5 1/2 day.

 

He only needs 5 days per week if one considers the proper bankroll.


I40 units per week possible .

 

your fault Nathan, your 8 units a day statement unleash that song in my tiny brain,lol. 5 days a week is plenty and enough.

 

$ 200 per day with the proper bankroll is no sweat for me provided it is a local casino l.

 

That is called WINNING realistically. With Plan B,C,D, and E totalling $25K. Been to Plan D once $100 a unit.
That is why I say Jae's OG can work. No write offs on losses. They are drawdowns. I called them setbacks.

Think about it. Is it possible to bust a 5 Marty that many times in consecutive trips?
If that day happens, I will laugh out loud instead of lamenting.
Baccarat players don't see it. They are all gambling and refused to admit it.
The way of the Tortoise.

 

How aout $5 for a foot long? Subway sandwich anyone?

 

Err.... Confessions. Once I am on a roll winning 10-20 days in a row, SCREW the homework. Screw the waiting . I am only Human. Glad my approach took care most of it.

 

A new dawn of ........ !

 

I don't frequent forums much nowadays, so I'll confess I'm not up to speed with what Jae is claiming, suffice to say, I'm getting the impression bet Banker only using Oscar's Grind?

If this is it, betting one-side only, is just silly, that is not to say, couldn't the same MM approach be applied to FLD or OLD, or even AS (Anti-steak), the latter probably being the more effective as well as making the most sense.

 

the only thing you're missing is that he's waiting for an imbalance to the player side before he starts betting Banker only.

But you're right betting even a combination of FLD or OLD as I tested a bit would bring about the same results with a lot less waiting around for the right shoe.

 

It's just using regression toward the mean to find a trigger point. It does not change the odds.

 

Imbalance shoe returning to the norm? That's not a given, 6 deck game I've played for years used to produce Punto Dom shoes for days on end, in act even B dom shoes aren't that common, casinos don't like them as the Chinese would clean up, what about those shoes which are at the half way point fairly even, you just skip those? Hard to do in a joint with very few live tables, or all tables full.

Sounds like a load of BS to me anyway.

 

he's playing Stadium 8 decks. I guesstimate about 40% of shoes are not playable. With the stadium you can just sit there and wait. Yes you might find that there's an imbalance in the middle or end of a shoe and that's where you start.
It's inevitable that you'll find 2 next shoes after starting the grind where you will lose 2000 units. But they are far and few between. Just luck of the draw I guess.

 

You've been on the boards as long as I. Not heard of people throwing down gauntlets, asking others to front with $10k, a bit like the poker player knocking the out the small fry based on their chip stack, or words in this case. $100k, escrow deposits, people will vouch for me, yep think I've seen show before.

 

I'm not across Jae's posts, arsed catching up, briefly caught the tail end of one a few days ago. If I recall correctly, two things stood out for me, firstly the mere mention of Escrow, every time somebody brings that up, hindsight has shown it to be a diversion from a some BS story.
Secondly I think I read the claim to be up 800k or something silly figure like that (divided by a team of 4).

Even though I've not played in the US, I've played in many VIP rooms in other parts of the world. I think I'm right in the assumption based on my own observations and experience, I don't know of any casino which will allow any player to systematically work their way up to such a profit and not take some sort of action to bring their play to a halt by what means necessary.

Now obviously I'm not referring to a whale who places 6 figure bets and who can win and lose six figures per session. I'm talking about a $100 chip player who over an extended period of time has amassed such a profit. No casino, no matter what their size, will sit back and do nothing, it doesn't and won't happen. You may get away with it unhindered if you have previously lost a figure far greater than 800k covering your gambling relationship said casino. Win just a few K and the heat becomes noticeable, never mind over three quarter of a mill.