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Blackjack Questions from a Hi-Lo Dropout: How much will counting only the high be less effective than Hi-Lo?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Forum' started by Moraine, Jun 16, 2021.

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How much will counting only the high be less effective than Hi-Lo? (Pick the closest choice.)

  1. 1 %

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  2. 5%

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  3. 10%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. 25%

    0 vote(s)
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  5. 50%

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    Blackjack is an easy game, winning is fun. Card counting is the only way to guarantee a sure win in the long run. But in my observation, not too many people are card counting nowadays, and the number of practicing card counters may have become less and less even when the total number of casinos has been booming.

    Why? Is it because that card counting requires a sharp mind? The answer is no. Card counting actually requires no math higher than that of six-grade. But card counting is a tiring job for sure, especially after casinos start using shoes for blackjack. It was 4 decks first, than 6, and then 8.

    Take one of the most popular card counting methods -- the Hi-Lo -- for example. Hi-Lo card counters must glue their eyes to the felt. Any time the dealer slaps down a card, a card counter must be alert enough to adjust the running count. If the card is a small card (2, 3, 4, 5 or 6) the running count is up by +1. If the card is a big card (10, J, Q, K or Ace), the running count is down by -1. The card counter can catch break only when the card is a 7, 8 or 9. Then the running count stays the same.

    Question #1: Is counting both the high cards and the low cards – 10 cards per suit, 40 per deck really necessary?
    Question #2: If a deck of card has one surplus high card, does it also mean that one non-high card (2 thru 9) must be missing?
    Question # 3: Can I get away with almost just as much from card counting by counting the high cards 10, J, Q, K and Ace only?

    Please share your thoughts or guesses.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2021
  2. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    This is false. There are plenty of other, legal, and more profitable ways to beat blackjack.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2021
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  3. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    Yeah? I heard about similar claims many times before too, but don't know who are behind those hot-air balloons though. The casinos or some other you know what? Anyway, I will still say learn card counting or accept becoming another loser in blackjack in the long run.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2021
  4. JSTAT

    JSTAT Member

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  5. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    Again, you're wrong.

    And naturally, the administration here doesnt want you to know the truth about this forum.

    As for jstat, his stuff has been debunked also.
     
  6. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    Here's my advice, spend some money and buy Beyond Counting Exhibit CAA.
     
    Punkcity likes this.
  7. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    On paper at least, Ten Count actually is a stronger card counting system than Hi-Lo. The trouble with Ten Count is that it used a difficult method to tally the extra tens in the remaining deck/shoe when Ten Count was first introduced.

    If Thorp had used the method of tallying the extra high cards as it is done in "Counting-the-High", aka AceMT, Ten count may still be the system of choice over Hi-Lo.
     

  8. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I think that cats should go with the knockout card countings style as it's very easy and as effective and profitable as more complicated countings style, hey hey.
     
  9. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    Here's is Moraine's advice: Save the money for your needed bankroll, learn a simple card counting system and Kelly Criterion for betting your money. In time you will be able to tip away your money in casino like a persona endowed with fortune and luck.
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2021
  10. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    The knockout (KO), like Hi-Lo, also needs to adjust the running counts +1, 0 or -1, up-and-down, every time a card is exposed.

    Card counting becomes pretty tiring as casinos increase the number of decks used. With an 8-deck shoe, most card counters find doing the repetitive +1/-1 running adjustments not rewarding enough already. Imagine if casinos begin to use 10 decks. (In my opinion, casinos don't have to go to 10 decks since casinos beat most Hi-Lo'ers or KO'ers with 8 decks, including this poster Moraine -- a Hi-Lo dropout.)

    Counting-the-High-Only, officially named "AceMT" as indicated in the Encyclopedia in Blackjack, on the other hand uses an entirely different concept to tally its counts. Since it counts only the high cards, the tallying of the number of high cards exposed is always on the increase like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 . . .. Card counters can relax most of the time. So Moraine can still do the card counting, win and have fun with blackjack.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2021
  11. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    Hi, No one has voted yet. FYI, the Encyclopedia of Blackjack has used three parameters BC (Betting Correlation), PE (Playing Efficiency) and IC (Insurance Correlation) to compare the relative effectiveness of different counting systems. Below are the numbers for Counting-the-High, formally known as AceMT, and Hi-Lo.

    AceMT vs. Hi-Lo BC, PE, IC Comparisons_1.jpg


    You may notice that the sum total of AceMT's BC+PE+IC is 2.22, while Hi-Lo's sum total is 2.24, and 2.22/2.24 = 99.1%. In other word, the difference between the two systems in less than 1%.

    Surprised?
     
  12. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    • Violation of Rule #2: No Disruptive Behavior
    Nobody voted because nobody cares. There aren't any card counters here save for jstat.
     
  13. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    • Violation of Rule #7: No Off-topic Posting
    If yer attention is to sell the book just come out and say as much, hey hey.
     
  14. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    Actually, please don't buy and PLEASE DON'T SELL as well ANY BOOK OR IDEA promoting the thinking that one can win in blackjack without card counting.
     

  15. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Deck composition. Of course we want a deck with excess Aces and 10s. We also want a deck depleted of 5s. Anyone who has read Thorpe's book knows this.

    Take Hi Lo. Drop the 2. Count the 5 twice. I know, I know this makes it a horrifying Level 2 count.

    The 2 turned upside down looks like a 5.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2021
    Moraine likes this.
  16. Moraine

    Moraine Active Member

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    You have heck of a Level II system out there. As a Hi-Lo drop out, Moraine can only admire your mental agility and stamina. Moraine found out long long time ago, he wasn't cut out for Hi-Lo'ing a 8-deck shoe especially with a glass in hand, let alone a Level II system.

    Thorp knew A, 10s are players' good friends, but he veered off at the tangent when he proposed a "point system".

    AceMT is a BACK-TO-BASIC campaign. When a deck is really rich in A and 10s, low cards -- 5 included -- are taken care of automatically, since you will get paid 3-to-2 more often than not. Cheers!
     
  17. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Beating shoes are for fantasies and book writing.
    To qoute Seinfeld "Not that there is anything wrong with that."

    Time to bring the casinos back down to earth. 312 cards creates to many variables. To qoute Mick "you can't win Rock, that shoe will kill ya to death."

    No more shoes. No more 6.5. Casinos would make even more $$$$ because 98% lack one major ingrediant. Discipline.

    Put HILo RC on a tote board behind the table. Casinos make more$$$$ because the first and only instinct (for most) is to chase.
     
  18. Chip Magnet

    Chip Magnet Active Member

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    I honed my counting skills with Casino Verite. Setting the speed and number of players to max, which enabled me to count in an instant. I concentrated on single deck, where counting is most effective. Eight deck shoes are a killer.

    This card counting trainer shows the count for an eight deck shoe and warns on strategy errors.

    https://wizardofodds.com/play/blackjack-v2/
     
  19. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Been there. Done that. RC 16 equates to a deck composition of 50% 10,A and 50% other cards. First off, this will occur maybe 2% off time. Secondly, the deck could still be rich in another grouping of cards. The 3.2 blackjack isnt auotmatic. By ignoring the other cards you end up with hands that lose 80% of the time far too often. Like 10,5 and 10,6. Or that Ace sitting under the dealers 10 just when your max bet is out and you have 20.

    There is no easy way out.
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2021
  20. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Typo. Should be RC 12 for a aingle deck.
     

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