TurboGenius When does it lose ?

But you have to pretty well know what your game is to do that and most people don't. Suppose your game is waiting for streaks, obviously you're not going to play when there are are no streaks. Now say you're waiting for dozens of scenarios and none of them are happening. The outcomes are not playing your game so why would you be betting. It takes a long time to get to that point and most people don't want to invest the time and energy into it. You have to like winning above everything else and from my experience most gamblers like the betting more than they do the winning. They like to win, but they like placing the bets and waiting for the outcomes more.

 

I don't know about waiting for outcomes, I rarely wait for anything. But I definitely fit into the 'like winning/like betting' bracket. Can't 100% decide which one I like more. Just winning can get boring, while just losing can get boring and annoying. For me there is something extra satisfying in placing bets through the odd rare rough patch no matter how long it lasts, and finally walking away with a win/profit.

 

I understand that concept, it's kind of like the team play concept. It's enjoyable to get in there with your teammates and fight it out and come out victorious. For myself it's more like target competition archery. You have to be in the center or as close to the center as you can get with every shot. Put arrows all over the target and a few in the center you are not going to win. Every shot has to be precise with as little error as possible. Target shooters want to get it done and get out. There is no enjoyment in missing the mark. You train to do your best every time.

Just now I finished a session online. The outcomes were not really playing my game but I played it anyway and made my goal but it took me way more bets than I liked only because I didn't feel like waiting for it to play my game. So I kept her breaking even until I made my goal. There was nothing fun about it.

 

Yeah, I was into bow hunting for a while back in the late 80's. We used to call these competition archery guys Target Queens, haha.

My weapon of choice was Pearson 75lb compound bow.

Once even bought a 700 acre bush property with two friends to go hunting-fishing-camping. We called it, Three Arrow Ranch.

First visit together after settlement we simultaneously shot an arrow up into this huge red gum tree on the property boundary. 1-2-3, the arrows stuck side by side in a monster bough. Just like you say the target queens like to do, we aced our target. It was a perfect three shots. We called it Three Arrow Ranch immediately, and smiled every time we entered the property an looked up at those arrows.

Ah, memories.

But how's TG doing? Please tell us Turbo, did it lose?

 

Actually, the archery target is a good analogy. Let's say your method advises to bet on all the 4's and all the 7's. A quick look at the bet history shows the last 5 or even 10 spins are all even, so a strong cluster of evens. Why would you include the 7's? Might be time to bull's eye the 4's and save a few units on the under performing odd numbers despite the advice to bet 7's. If a 7 shows, give yourself an uppercut and add them back in to the mix, until the next round of advised numbers.

 

Interesting, but again, I see many different sortings of numbers. What do you think about this:

 

Does it mean that we always have a significantly underperforming side (of the coin)? If so, it can be exploited by just following the overall winner. But the payout doesn't pay up. Am I right?

Another question: How long does it drift away? Why does it drift away? How does it affect our game?

 

OK, over at R-Sim. I've figured out how to demonstrate RR. I'm using a one net win method as the stop win goal. I'm using 6 net losses as the lose threshold.

 

Those graphs show a number of runs, roughly half are +ve and half are -ve. The arcsine law explains why very few runs of random walks cross the axis and why half the gamblers or investors will find themselves almost exclusively on the winning or losing side the entire time.

It also explains why the outcomes of 1000 people betting on 100 spins does not have the same statistical characteristics as 1 person betting on 100,000 spins/events.

It has to drift because that's the nature of random walks. The arcsine law gives some further insight into the phenomenon of why the runs seldom cross the zero line or revert. Remembering it's the average that is mean reverting not the outcomes themselves.

 

In second place, should it not be Saint Steve of RF, phone seller

 

How I played that session :

I took a dozen section of the table and then charted until the final number in a street appeared, then
I bet 1 unit on that number.
When a second street in the dozen qualified and the last number appeared, I bet 2 units on it.
Etc etc until all 4 streets were in play. (1u, 2u, 3u, 4u) No progression. The amount bet was
based on the order of appearance only and never changed.
I used $5.00 as the unit size - when all 3 dozens were done I did +1 on the base unit
size. Eventually it got to $10.00 for the base unit size and I kept it there.
(10,20,30,40)
I removed any win and played on.

The idea was that the longer that it took a number to appear then the faster it would repeat
and win so the higher the unit size I put on it.
Some wins were within a few spins, other times it took longer.

It was just fine but did drop at the end. If I had stopped at 4k spins I wouldn't have seen this.
(of course I could have used RX instead of RS and saved a day's worth of spins lol)

I'll do a step by step and record it to youtube - but it needs modifications.

A few thoughts.
I saw many many times where 1 number was left in each of the 4 streets, which seemed odd
to me - could be exploited by waiting until there are 3 numbers in 3 streets and then bet whatever
is left in the 4th street until there is 1 number left. If this happens in the RX spins/video I'll
point it out. It was very common.
Another thought was that the streets aren't relevant and the last 4 numbers to appear in the
dozen could be used, regardless of what street they are in.
1u, 2u, 3u, 4u based on the order they qualify - so long as the bet is comparative to the order
they appear for the first time.

Regardless of the drop, it ended in profit - which was a good sign.

 

Twoup,

Exploiting luck/variance is not a long term winning strategy.

 

Twoup, Lucky fella,

Claiming that each session isn't linked to previous sessions is also silly. It's like claiming that it doesn't matter how much money you lose today, because tomorrow new money will magically reappear in your bankroll.

All sessions are linked and contribute to the long term.

 

Except we do not play in the long term
we play in the extreme short-term, spin to spin. You do not have enough time in your life to get to where you are playing in the long term. If you can guess the next outcome with any kind of reliability none of the math that you worship so much will apply to you. The game is now rigged in your favor and new mathematical calculations apply. It's like taking a 57 Chevy and dropping a modern
600 hp engine into it. All of the math the governed how the original 57 Chevy operated is now worthless. The brakes are no longer adequate, the transmission won't work, the suspension needs to be changed, etcetera. All of the math you use with roulette assumes you're playing a random game with random numbers. As soon as you learn to make accurate guesses all that math becomes irrelevant. Surely you see this.

 

Better head to Reading Random everyone.

 

Probably not
if you look at variance as being luck.

'Variance is the downswings and upswings over which you don’t have the control."

In roulette, if you become familiar with the outcomes by studying them for a long time you gain a lot of control over the variance. You can see right in front of you when the outcomes are not playing your game. So you don't bet during that time and by not betting you're controlling your losses. You turned a mostly lucky game into a game of skill and variance is no longer your enemy.

 

Then everything in all the long terms goes to longest term.
& you ain't sufficiently long enough.

 

You want to know where the long-term is
it's in the thousands of wheels that are spinning right now all around the world producing what adds up to the long-term results. They have absolutely nothing to do with my spin by spin play because I'm in the extreme short-term. Statistics never apply to single individuals, how could they. Long-term statistics never apply to my roulette game, how could they. In my game anything can happen. In the long-term statistics game everything is always as it should be. No surprises.

 

Can't wait for the esteemed Dr. AA to chime in on this one. "Past spins can't predict future outcomes."