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TurboGenius When does it lose ?

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Nov 14, 2021.

  1. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    You are comparing the probability of one string of numbers against an other probability.

    Then please do it fairly.

    Take a string of 36 random numbers. Calculate the odds that 36 of them will hit in 37 spins. and compare that with he probability of seeing 37 spins with 12 repeats and 12 unhit numbers.

    Is there a difference???

    I bet 1 1 1 1 i got 4 repeats lucky me

    I bet 1 2 3 4 i got 4 repeats lucky me

    I bet 36 22 12 2 I got 4 repeats lucy me.

    WHY is the first string different???? Come on guys I think you can do better than that. (NO TROLLING just an honest discussion.)
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021
  2. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    There is no conflict between each sequence having the same probability and the fact that some distributions are more likely than others. Dr Sir chose the example he did because it highlights the fact that you can only bet on a sequence, you can't bet on a distribution. And all sequences of the same length are equally likely.

    TwoUp Said :

    And how do you bet on a distribution? The casino doesn't pay you if correctly guess how many repeats are in a sequence.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021
  3. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    So Saint Sir No One says both lists are possible and just as likely to happen on a roulette wheel.
    Here are the two lists played out -
    1.png
    2.png

    I can only assume that you don't know what random is.
    How does someone who hunts unicorns, wheels that don't produce random - not know what
    random is ?
    Both are just as likely to appear from a wheel ?
    One is very likely to appear because it's random. The list of 1's is in no way random and
    therefore "random" can never produce such a listing. At the point that it did, it would no
    longer be anything close to random.

    So a Chi-Square value of 41.36 and one of 3,700 are both (in your book) just
    as likely to appear ?
    And you wonder why no one takes the math naysayers seriously.
    Learn what random is before you try to attack a random game or the people who play it.
     
  4. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Take TwoUp's favourite example of 3 outcomes of an EC:

    1. R,R,R
    2. R,R,B
    3. R,B,R
    4. R,B,B
    5. B,R,R
    6. B,R,B
    7. B,B,R
    8. B,B,B

    Consider the COMBINATION of exactly 2 reds. There are 3 PERMUTATIONS of exactly 2 reds (rows 2,3,and 5), therefore the probability of exactly 2 reds is 3/8. But each of those permutations has a probability of (1/2)^3 = 1/8. Can you bet directly on the combination of 2 reds? NO! You have to bet on one of the 3 permutations because you can only bet on one spin at a time. A permutation takes order into account and a combination doesn't. If you wanted to bet on a combination you would have to bet in advance that one of row 1,2, or 5 would be the outcome of 3 bets, and it wouldn't matter which one. Obviously, the casino doesn't let you do that, so you have to pick ONE of the three permutations, each of which has the same probability of 1/8. In order to get 3 wins it DOES matter which one you pick. Even if you pick the correct number of reds you can still lose 2 of the 3 bets because they may be in the wrong order. It's the same principle for betting on single numbers, the only difference is that there are many more combinations possible, and for each combination there are many permutations.
     
  5. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    Chi square can give many false positives, RX also tells this.

    But I ask you again turbo then where is the drop off point? Where does a string of 1's starting to be less random.
     
  6. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    According to turbo you will never see 1. and 8. because it is not random...
     
  7. Gigi666

    Gigi666 Active Member

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    Where is the dislike button when you need one :dead:
     
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  8. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    What a load of nonsense. Many players use a progression, expecting the distribution to hold. Even a stupid martingale is not betting on a specific sequence, it's betting that an outcome result will occur anywhere within the next X spins.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021
  9. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    Please turbo see the following screenshot.

    Where does the probability of the string of 1's give you a different probability.

    2021-11-23.png

    I could continue the list. I could test the averages in excel and both of them give the same AVERAGES so please again show me the math were they are different!
     
  10. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    RED RED RED or BLACK BLACK BLACK is perfectly fine considering there are only the options of RED, BLACK.
    I would never say that wasn't random, nor would anyone else from 3 spins where there are 2 options.
    1 number appearing 100 times when there are 37 options is completely different (do the math).
    I showed it on the RX chart so I won't go on explaining what random is. You either know what it is or you don't.
     
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  11. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Such nonsense to start the day.

    I did that above with the wheel analysis.
    You don't understand what "random" means and I apparently can't help you with that.
    Random does NOT mean "Anything can happen" and it also doesn't mean "Anything could happen".
    If you understand this we can move on to "Random has limits" which is why one chart above passed
    as random and the other failed as random.
     
  12. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Right. That's the solution, use progressions. :rolleyes:

    And even progressions implicitly assume that outcomes will conform to some order. Negative progressions rely on your target not going missing for too long, and positive progressions rely on wins coming in clumps. Or the pattern could be more complex. But if you knew those things you wouldn't have to use progressions in the first place.
     
  13. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    SirNoOne,

    Learn the basics.

     
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  14. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    Here is good video for anyone who think otherwise!



    NOW WATCH FROM HERE CLOSELY



    PEOPLE THINK IT IS NOT VERY LIKELY...... (including turbo)
     

  15. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    Here is another one even better!

     
  16. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    @ Turbo, nobody said that a distribution (whether it's Chi-squared or any other) has the same value everywhere on its curve, so you're attacking a straw man and you've completely missed the point of Dr Sir's post. :meh:
     
  17. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I repeat.

    Simon is a good guy, I talk to him on Twitter in PMs. You should watch any video you can find about random
    and it might help you out.
     
  18. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    IMPORTANT FACT

    Both videos show exactly why those repeats need to show up. If it doesnt it IS NOT random. YES a streak of 100 1's would take to the end of the univer. BUT THE ODDS are the same pffffffffffffffffffffffffff
     
  19. Quos

    Quos Member

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    Hi luckyfella!!

    "x" spins, 37 pockets and the probability for a match.
    Why wont it work???


    I have calculated the necessary number of spins (consecutive and different numbers) in which the probability for a match is greater than 50%. Specifically, it gives 55.68% in similarity to the 23 people needed in the birthday paradox.
    But as you mentioned, betting every time "x" different numbers appear in a row does not work (although at the moment it seems that it does).
    What is the way to go now, knowing that as a minimum I have to bet the last "x" different numbers that I have calculated?
    Note that my math skills are poor hahahaha.

    Thanks!
    Regards!
     
  20. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    I'd say that he knows & comprehends that pretty well .. but purposefully seeding out discourages anyone to not even give a winning possibility a glimpse ..

     
  21. HAL

    HAL Member

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    1. Most people don’t know what random is.
    2. They think rbbrrrbrbbrbrbbbrrbbrbrbbrrrb is random, when it’s not even 50% of the possible permutations.
    3. Just don’t play the outer limits of the bell curve, don’t go looking for extremes.
    4. It’s just a different perspective, that’s ok.
    5. Luckyfella, TwoUp, TG you are much appreciated.
    6. Most people have to see it to believe it, and when they saw it they would say f… me!
    7. SirAnnoying you are ok in you’re field of expertise, you don’t have to be here or anyone who disagrees it’s a choice.
     
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