TurboGenius When does it lose ?

Well you know what we do, I'll try to contact him on youtube.

And ask him if he could explain that the chance of MY PRESELECTED SET of 100 1's is less likely to come than MY PRESELECTED SET of 100 random numbers.

Would you then accept his aswer? I will!

Or perhaps you could ask him on twitter?

 

You think I said progressions were the answer? You twist every word written. It's your habit when you continuously spout your nonsense.

And no, you're wrong again. Progressions don't assume an order or a specific sequence like you claim, they assume a distribution, a count or density of outcomes.

You just won't admit your wrong and continue to spout nonsense to cover your earlier nonsense.

 

Don't use YouTube to contact him, it won't work - they don't read comments on videos.
Twitter is much simpler and at least people read the PMs lol, unlike other social media places.
@mathemaniac is his contact info there.

No, they are both equally likely - although one is random and one is not when it comes to roulette. I deal with roulette and random outcomes.
Why argue about non-random outcomes ?

 

It's not about hits, it's not about numbers, it's about events. Having 36 repeats in 37 spins is much less likely than having 12 repeats in 37 spins. It's not even about betting! I'm talking about the probability of events. That is the reason why you have not witnessed 37 spins with 36 repeats. The whole point is that a sequence of 37 numbers with only number 1 showing up is not random. It's a man-made sequence of numbers. It's not picked randomly. It's typed by a keyboard by a forum poster with wrong assumptions about randomness. You can't even force an RNG to produce such a sequence!

Cars move on 4 wheels. I'm pretty sure that somewhere in the world some stunt guy has managed to move a car on only 1 wheel for a couple of seconds. So it's possible. We go on the streets to bet on the number of wheels that each car is moving on. I pay you 1 million dollars for each car that is moving on only 1 wheel, you pay me 1 cent for each car that is moving on 4 wheels. Will you accept this deal?

 

37 spins (37 independent random trials) comply with some statistical properties that are derived from that random variable. 37 spins of 1 are not random in the context of Roulette, it's more than obvious. You won't play on a wheel with such behavior. 37 spins of 1 are not random enough even if the wheel only had 1 and 0 on it! Even a sequence of 37 spins with 36 repeats on an EC is not random. It's possible, but not even close to likely! That's why you question it being random.

 

There is a way to test it. It's a skill, like an Olympic athlete in Gymnastics on the balance beam for instance. You can't test who will win with math that day. But you can throw them into a competition on an exact day and see who has a very good day in the right timing. I have gone to the trouble of teach the very basics of a skill in order to open the eyes of anyone willing to go the rest of the way on their own. You can't test this with math. You must test it with real money on the line and skills born of experience. It's to each person to judge based on their own merit. For you to dismiss it, castigate it, and call it a disparaging name only confirms your own skill level. We don't give out prizes for achievement. That reward goes to anyone that earns it. People that earn nothing, do zero effort, and just act smart get what they deserve also. Nothing.

 

You are thinking in terms of odds because you inevitably think about betting exactly according to something that is being discussed.

The discussion is about a sequence of outcomes being likely or so unlikely that could be simply ignored. It's called not random, or impossible for an RNG to produce such results.

 

Thanks for the info I'll try to contact him.

Both are equally likely although the other one is not random??? First you said the first one would never appear so you changed your mind about that?

This is evidently not going any where so I ask him and let him be the judge

So the question to him should be:

I've got a string of 37 1's and a string of 37 random numbers picked by me.

According to you the first one is not random and should never appear in a roulette game. The second one will appear because it is random?

Is the question correct?

 

Pick them by an RNG. You will be surprised, because Woah, that sequence just happened in front of your eyes!

We all were expecting a sequence of 37 numbers with around 12 repeats (get back to normal distribution graph), we didn't expect to see 37x 1s back to back. It happened as expected. Where's the surprise?

 

Ofcourse the mean is around 24 hits with 13 no hits. The answer was however that the 2 strings were different and that 1 of them will never show up. because it is "not random"

 

Correct. Because it doesn't have the properties we expect from a random sequence. Simply it is not random.

You are human because you have the properties of human beings. A cat is not a human because it doesn't have the properties of human beings. Is it possible for a cat to be a human? Technically yes, she might be Professor McGonagall, but do you talk to all the cats you see so maybe they talk back?

 

Ok then in all honestly could you then tell me: WHEN does it start not te be random! So you say 37 1's is not random, so what about 36 1's 35 34 or 33 etc. You should be able to answer this because you know the properties of a random sequence

 

First of all, any sequence that is not generated by a random number generator and the numbers are picked is not random. A while ago I watched a video about how people answer to Pick a random number between 1 and 10. It demonstrated why 5 is the least picked number. I don't remember the exact wording, but the human brain unconsciously removes numbers that mean something to it. 5 is the middle so it's not random enough, 1 and 10 is the beginning and the ending, 2 is even, 4 feels perfect (2*4) as well as 6, 8, and 9, 7 is the number of luck, so let's go with 3 (most picked). 3 is prime and doesn't mean shit to me. So let it be 3. It was fun

About the number you asked about. I honestly don't know how to calculate the number you are looking for. I can code. That's my tools. I write a piece of code, I find the limits (billions of spins), I take that as POSSIBLE. Done. Accordingly, if I walk in a casino and hear that people are all hyped because one table has had 30 back-to-back reds, I walk out right away and choose another casino. Because the probability of casino cheating is more than what happened on that table.

And that's just me, you might decide differently.

 

Lets leave at that, its better for my health Anyway I hope you make lots of money with you ideas.

 

A google check this topic to check for randomness shows up this runs test.

SirNoOne 100 1s fail the run test.

 

Same for you. Don't bet on 37x 1s. Peace out.

 

To be fair:

It's a hypothesis (he says so him self) made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation. So it might be not random meaning to many streaks in a small sample, looks fishy, but it might happen. This is no proof that it not would be random, further evidence is needed.

Liked the video though! Thanks for sharing

 

So after all these pages, rather than see that what Turbo has posted has some signifigance, arguments and disagreements ensue as usual. I don't understand how Turbo still has any patience.

What he posted, off the top of my head I already see 3 different ways which this can be used for profitability. The only math I care about.

What is written on this forum, as well as what others have given freely, you can make a profit at this game.

Repeats happen, within the odds. Turbo provided the bet selection, Notto's 1-3-5-7 tells you when.

1 becomes 2, 2 becomes 3 also works in reverse 3 becomes 2, 2 becomes 1. Again Turbo provided the bet selection.

Numbers have three states, unhits, uniques and repeats, that is it. They all go through this process.

Odds and Probability are not the same thing. Odds remain at 1/37. Probability is a dynamic calculation depending on what happens.

Numbers have to eventually reach their average. The odds dictate that. Odds are and will always be 1/37

I'm not a math major, i don't pretend to be one. I do however have common sense and live within reality. The reality is that in this example Turbo showed a profit. I tested it as posted with real money, it showed a profit. Can it be tweaked, yes, instead of arguing go test it yourselves.

 

Nope, and it's easy to show that a sequence needs to be in some order for a progression to be effective. Suppose you're betting on red with a positive progression which starts with 1u and increases by 1 after a win, back to 1u after a loss. It works well on this sequence:

Code:

Stake    Outcome    Result    Bank
1    B    L    -1
1    B    L    -2
1    B    L    -3
1    R    W    -2
2    R    W    0
3    R    W    3

But on this sequence, which has exactly the same number of reds, not so good:

Code:

Stake    Outcome    Result    Bank
1    R    W    1
2    B    L    -1
1    R    W    0
2    B    L    -2
1    R    W    -1
2    B    L    -3

A progression such as Kelly (or a simple percentage of bank) will return the same result for a sequence with a given number of W/L no matter what order they come in, but they aren't the kinds of progressions which system players use, because they are only worth using when you have an edge.

 

what a twist & turn .. genuinely positive LOL