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TurboGenius When does it lose ?

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Nov 14, 2021.

  1. Ordinary_people

    Ordinary_people Active Member

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    I think the last 7 number in 8 consecutive show up without repeater.

    CMIIW
     
    mr j likes this.
  2. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Did you read my last 3 posts in this thread?
     
  3. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    OK .. I am not disputing the math, it certainly points to a different type of thinking/mindlines.

    Now, if we are to further - potentially? - optimize this play setup .. would we be better off starting somewhere at 6th number towards 12 knowing that the highest repeat distribution potential is at those spin, although that takes away the highest profits from spin 1-5 & the hits from the 10th number or 5th bet onwards the return is already negative. Would that still constitute a +EV?

    Thereof, [6+7+8+9=] 30, limiting the cycle to 4x spins .. [+30,+23,+15,+6,-30 ≈avg18.5 vs 30] with the ratio between avg hits return & fail is 5 = 4:1 & 0.616666667; would this constitute the +EV?

    [1+2+3+4+5+6+7=] 28, with the cycle of 7x spins .. [+35,+33,+30,+26,+21,+15,+7,-28 ≈avg24 vs 28] with the ratio 8 = 7:1 & 0.857142857, which according to the math posted is +EV.


    So looking from this way, is there a quick formula that the ratio would have to reach [=50%] as the threshold, showing when the betting structure as a whole [=one its cycle] becomes +EV; I guess that irregardless of the threshold the amount of bets placed would still hold some significance tipping the threshold a tad either way?



    Also, is there a way to calculate how many times in a row would/could any of such attacks=cycles possibly fail?
     
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  4. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    You are correct it's 25, even I can't add up and eat with chopsticks at the time. At least my napkin math was a conservative estimate.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2021
  5. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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  6. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    You have to at least have your window of previous spins to know what to bet so I would suggest just wait for 7 or 11 spins and then start betting continuously. It's a moving window at that point.
     
  7. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    I found a little tester online. Give it a run or use your favourite simulation software.

    Google "better explained birthday paradox" and if you go down the page there is an interactive test. You will see that repeaters happen very frequently.

    Screenshot_20211201-144914_Chrome.jpg
     

  8. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    TwoUp likes this.
  9. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    That's what I had in mind .. some way of attacking first .. get profit that way ..
    & if no SU repeat in those spins switching to this play.

    What I wanna know is, is there a formula that converts this format
    8 = 7:1 & 0.857142857
    5 = 4:1 & 0.616666667
    into an indication of +EV; & what would be the decimal threshold of it.
     
  10. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Why; since I want to adapt it to other districts + further combining more districts, alternating between them the calculations can get quite complex.

    & the part of the 'when' in regard to the first hit in the chain of cycles at latest, since its ev+, would outline the best progression approximation with purpose of congesting the time =shortening the games/sessions lengths.

    Formula -- my math skill ain't in best shape yet & this way I can explain the things the best for now.

    @TwoUp here or there .. wherever it suits better.
     
  11. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    You've posted somewhere the ≥2 or more hits probability for all districts.
    The calcs above first don't show this, even better for me would be =2 hit probability,
    & second don't calculate at starting betting later.
     
  12. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    I dont read much from the "no name" posters, sorry. You have to put your time in.

    Ken
     
  13. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    I don't see how the calculator will help you change the house edge. It seems no more useful than calculating that a number has a 1 in 38 chance of hitting on a double zero wheel. Simply knowing the probability of winning isn't enough.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2021
  14. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    SirNoOne,

    How's your bs sophisticated "guessing correlation" wobbly wheel?
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2021

  15. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Luckyfella,

    What is guessing correlation?
     
  16. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    You are right. There's a whole load of crap postings on this forum. Lol
     
  17. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Well Mr J, is that short for Mr Jerkoff?

    You can go take a flying fuck and don't bother asking another fucking question if you can't fucking read.
     
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  18. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Fuck Off.jpg
     
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  19. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    You're making the same mistake as you did with the binomial calculation. With 7 numbers covered the probability of a win is 7/37 = 18.92%. How can it be anything else? It doesn't matter whether you choose the last 7 numbers or any random selection because spins are independent. :rolleyes:

    Therefore, the expectation is [(7/37) * 29 - (30/37) * 7]/7 = -1/37
     
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  20. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    LF read somewhere that "correlation is not causation", so he thinks that your method of identifying biased wheels is based only on correlation, not causation. This is wrong, but even if it wasn't, you could still predict outcomes if you only had correlation. Clueless, as usual.
     

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