TurboGenius Gambler's Fallacy (absurd ?) Proof II

If MJ disagree with the facts I wrote about him in the above post, he can write a post to correct it.

 

You made many accusations about me.

Check your post history for evidence.

Why are you slandering me?

This is a gambling forum to discuss roulette game.
Instead you launch a slandering campaign against me.

Why?

Answer - I call out the misinformation campaign you conduct on forums.

 

Why are you trying to mislead people into believing that they can use probability to beat the random game of roulette? I know that there are others, like Gizmo trying to do the same thing. But in fairness to Gizmo, I think he may believe his own delusional nonsense to some degree.

 

What about me, I do the same thing. Just played tonight two sessions and won 2 units. I do that every night. Just cuz you can't do it that doesn't mean it can't be done. You try and heap all your inabilities on everybody else. Quit it.

 

Why would I intentionally spread misinformation about probability? and what have I said that's false? Be specific.

Where did I ever say that it is? There are countless probabilities you can calculate for roulette, but none of them will help you to win if your selection is based on past spins, because they are independent.

Probability and statistics can be applied to anything you like, but you have to understand under what circumstances and situations the concepts can be applied, the assumptions you're making, and how to interpret the results. Stats is tricky and it's easy to mess up and come to wrong conclusions, which is what I see here all the time.
It's not really the math which is hard, and that's all done on the computer these days anyway, it's grasping the concepts. For example, you talk about the law of the third and the birthday problem but don't understand that they don't apply to roulette in any meaningful way, at least not if what you're trying to do is predict the next number. The binomial & geometric distributions assume that outcomes are independent, but you apply them as if they're not, and so end up with garbage conclusions which you think are correct. Even basic ideas like averages aren't understood very well by system players. Turbo in this thread says:

But this is completely wrong because what he's referring to in his table is the average number of spins it takes for the first, second and last dozen to show up, and this isn't at all the same as the probability, which is always fixed at 12/37. In fact it's only because the probabilities are fixed and equally likely that you get that result. His conclusion is that you should bet on repeaters, but that isn't what his results imply at all, if they're properly understood.

Until system players learn and understand basic probability they're just going to keep repeating the same old mistakes.

 

Like I told you, I have a degree in electrical engineering with a minor in mathematics.

Nope. And you obviously have no idea of how much math is required for an EE degree. It's the most math-heavy of all the engineering disciplines. Here is what you need to learn just in the first year (UK degree). Then in the second year you do Laplace and Fourier transforms, Vector calculus, Partial differential equations, signal processing, etc.

And even if I was self-taught, would it matter? No. Some of the best mathematicians and scientists who made big discoveries were entirely self-taught.

I can't prove you're selling systems, I can only go on what I've been told, and that person wants to remain anonymous. People can make up their own minds, but it does seem likely given that you like to drop hints and aggressively trash whatever the mathboyz say. If you want to help people win, just tell them how you play; why all the secrecy? Do you seriously think that casinos are going to change the rules if you post your system?

 

I not understand why these math enemies fight so intensive and where they can have benefit from this.

As you see - MJ usually try explain based on what he say one or another ! And what he use in these explanations , if you want - can find say in math books, so in resourses which are recognised by all world...and all that is nothing for math enemies...

Ok, maybe they have some analog of math, but this way they must anounce something from that ! They such not do...

 

You falsely accuse my of selling systems. You can't produce proof because there's none.

You slandered me.

This is the evidence of your accusation.
https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/math-players-vs-system-players.22987/page-6#post-131537

 

I have no issues with your OPINION.

Like everyone else, you are entitled to express your OPINION.

What I disagree with is your trolling behaviour that rudely interrupt systems players discussion that end up in endless quarrels for more than a decade in multiple forums.

Arguing the same point,

Extra pocket(s), unfair payout, independent spins and gamblers fallacy. There's nothing more you offer the last decade of posting.

I have expressed my OPINION in one post here. I don't troll, nor interrupt discussions nor pick quarrels like what you do.

https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/math-players-vs-system-players.22987/page-8#post-131782

I wrote to tell other members to ignore SirAnyone, Benas and you.

Stop feeding the trolls.

 

You have no idea how many first class honours engineers live with me. Scholar's btw.

You are just one of the few hundred of thousands EE all over the world. Are you a first class honours graduate? What's your GPA?

What's your Cambridge or Edexcel GPA?

 

You not think that main troll here is you ?

All what you here do is missleading some random peoples which ocassionally here came. And you that do during years, decades of years, where is your benefit from that ? Or you that do simply for fun ? Not looks that you do that for free, you fight super intensively...

You himself understand, that all yours fairy teils not have effect not on me , not on MJ, not on SirAnyone.

So to whom their are directed, to Turbo ? Also no... so left only some pure random persons, which not understand here who is who...and at all who not know, why they here came...

 

I can say in favor of LuckyFella, that in PMs in other forums and in some other emails, he has never tried to sell me anything.
I will or may not understand his clues and insights, but he has never tried to sell me any systems or get money for sharing information.

Regards!!

 

To me he also never tried to sell...but if that is big favour ? He said something very clever and following that others won ? I think also not...

So lets try find what he here do, what is aim of all writings - he is maybe one of bigest writers here...

From this I see that he want reveal how high MJ is evaluated in university, then he can ask for scan of his diploma , then something other, but if that is what is interesting to most peoples here ?
I not sure... even if he is in absolutelly low degree , but writes, explain things - which I can use in my favor, I think last is main , not his degree...

 

I think he's trying to help, I don't think he wants to waste his time in vain.
But for obvious reasons, he will never post clearly and concisely his playing in a public forum. It would be throwing stones at his roof.
There will be people who explain themselves better and others worse. Some that give clearer clues for the truly interested and others that do not.
I think that not saying things clearly or serving them on a silver platter is a natural filter to see who is really interested in learning.

Anyway, when I do not read something I am not interested in, I do not criticize. If I'm interested, I try to ask to see if I can clarify doubts or see which way to go. Sometimes just the language is a barrier to understanding.

Regards!

 

So you think, that he is winner, who came here to help for such begginers as we ?
But for obvious reasons, he simply cant open his playing in a public forum ?

So maybe he choosed wrong place ?
If want to help, maybe he could find better place ?

And how to know if he at all - can to help ?
Now nobody knows him personally, he not say nothing important , because he cant open for publick...I not see here any soluttion form such situation...

 

Well I do believe now in magical math because of you. Who gives a shit if there are 37 or 38 slots on a Roulette wheel? You still just said that you once saw 25+ reds in a row. Now were those all at the same odds? Looks like they happen regardless of the odds. So I actually believe in them regardless of the odds. When you were born the doctor slapped your mother instead.

 

Seriously? He posts worthless vague hints and seems to be mostly concerned with telling us what a genius he is. Even his "advice" on systems is taken from other members. And why all the long rants attacking the mathboyz? We really seem to have got under his skin, and that makes me suspicious. If he really had a winning system he wouldn't be at all concerned about us, and if he really wanted to help others win, he would post the details of how he plays. He's a poser and a troll, and very probably a scammer.

 

I kinda figured what you mathboys want. You want a set system that specificly says to bet this, this, and this. And to keep betting this way until you hit your win target.
Something kinda like this: RRBBRBRB, BBRRBRBR, or LLHHLHLH amiright?
cause I ain’t no Giz fanboy but I agree with his concepts and that can be applied to my type of strategy even though I’m not a an outside type of player

 

Yes if we look just one spin. Absolutely true still 18/37 or 18/38

I believe what you say the result can have 26 red in a row.

But i think in the first roullette game created until now already approx 400 years.

In that 400 years i dont know already how many gazillion or whatever the name. The consecutive streak for outside bet even chance cannot be reach 50 or more.

So far i google it the record just 32 consecutive.

Thats what i mean random has limit although not change the odds in one spin still 18/37 or 18/38

 

There isn't any other coherent way to bet. A system has to be mechanical, not subjective; the only alternative is precognition. But the mathboyz, if they play at all, don't base their bets on previous numbers alone, why would they when outcomes are independent?

Spike & Gizmo say that mechanical systems don't work, and they're right, but they still claim that past spins point to future spins, it's just that there is no way to pin down and categorise those patterns to create a system with rules. They claim that roulette is a skill which has to learned, they're not saying that SUBJECTIVE systems work; that would mean a system which works for me but not for you (also nonsense). They're saying that there are objective patterns which really do give an edge. But then, their argument that mechanical systems can't work isn't very persuasive. Why not?

Let's suppose, for the sake of argument, that spins aren't independent and you really can get an edge by looking at patterns like RRBBRBRB, BBRRBRBR, or LLHHLHLH. In that case, all you would have to do to create an entirely mechanical system is identify what those patterns are, and/or what patterns tend to follow more often from other patterns. For the even chances, there are only a limited number of patterns possible, depending on how far you look back. Spike has said, I think, that there's no point in looking back more than about 10 spins. Even if it was 20 spins there are only about a million possible patterns, and in practice, much less than that because you're only looking for basic groupings like clusters, or streaks.

So once you have categorized the types of possible patterns, you could investigate what types of patterns followed from them. Having done that, you have your 100% mechanical system. All this could be done on a computer, and the coding would be quite simple. That's it, job done. Then code a bot based on the patterns and wait for the profits to roll in; it would be a perpetual source of passive income.

It's no good them protesting that there are no patterns which followed reliably from other patterns (therefore no mechanical method works), because that would be to admit that spins are independent after all, and if that was the case, they wouldn't be able to get an edge. Their guesses would be just that - random guesses, and random guesses will just return the expected number of losses.

So if they really are winning using their reading randomness and educated guessing, they must be using some kind of precognition, which they themselves believe is nonsense.

Don't fall for their BS.