Roulette Variance and house egde

Which kills the bankroll? In short term it is variance and in long term the HE. The factum is the expectation is negative, we need a positive variance to win, which is the factor of luck. So there are tables online which offer fair odds, which mean we will not be beaten of the house egde (to some extent as the winning is taxed, so it is about 0.3% negative egde in the long run).

If no or very samall HE, we may try to bet with low variance, in order to make downdrown small, and end the game on the right side.

Such a bet is cover most of the table, if we cover all, we can't win, if no HE we break even, so it have to be at least one number not covered. Strickt in the longer run it does not matter if we play 1 or 35 numbers, but now are we playing some hours at the time, and not reagard us as professionals.

Which table and which method give us lowest HE and a low variance?

On some BM casinos they pay half the stake back on EC:s if zero comes make the HE half the normal. On such table it is possible to cover 35 numbers and still win 1 unit a spin. The price is rather high as we lose 142 units on average a cycle and win only 35. betting 2/3 bet use to end with a loss, and any progression is scary.

I use to cover the table flat betting, and adjust the risk with the number of betted numbers. I use an American Wheel, with fair odds. An American because if I cover almost every number, the remaining has a fraction lower chans to hit.

We can if we like bet all numbers but one and still get paid for a hit. ( for couriosity we can bet all numbers if we want to hegde, and lose less if the lowest bet hit).

This sound strange, but as there is fair odds we can work it out. I have many times have luck with a sleeping number, got a win of 50 Euro (500 points) without even use my starting bankroll.

So if we are scared to put 15 Euro at a spin, we should not use it.
This method is good to test the fairness of an online table, as it is hardly possible a cycle of 38 spins allways lose on a fair wheel.

An American wheel with fair pay on some bets exist, and we should not use other bets then bets paying fair odds.

74 units on low (or high), 48 units on opposite dozen. 3 units on 5 of the remaining numbers except 0 and 00. On 0 and 00 we can put one each (do not split as straight up pays 38).

In this configarution we lose 142 units if the number not covered hits.
We win 2 units if 30 of the numbers hit.
if the five straight up hits we win 10 units.
If 0 or 00 hits we win 16 units

So the expectation is (not in a single cycle in real life) is 38 different number comes up.
30 times 2 is 60
5 times 10 is 50
2 times 16 is 32
If we add this togheter we see we have fair odds. (all EC.s pays back if 0 or 00).

Due to two zeros and 5 straight ups a cycle of 38 can go plus even with one miss, if we got lucky hitting
the 0,00 and the 5 singles.

If we like to get 3 units win on the 30 numbers, we can put half a unit on zero (like 0.5 Euro instead of 0.1). Then we lose 2 if zero hits, but get 3 or 11 on the other numbers.

Should we chose an unlucky number which give us a lot of misses, we can increase the risk and remove one single, which rise the payout to 7 on the 30 numbers trying recover.

My last attempt went good in the sense I never used my bankroll after the first 38 cycle, I gott
a lot of misses in one cycle, and turned on cycled to recover mod leaving two numbers unbet.

1000.60
1012.00
1030.80
1034.60
1036.40
1049.20
1036.60
1024.20
1040.20
1039.40
1034.20
1022.20
1039.40
1022.00
1037.00
1035.40
1047.40
1018.30
1019.30
1019.30
1049.10 Removed one straight up only this cycle
1050.70 6 spins target reached.

Players which think they can spot a sleeper, if they are right, will never lose with this method.

Try it in fun mode, and if you stake real money, and lose it is your own
responsibility. This as any method can win and can lose. Some AP here will say you can at best break even. I think this method will work well for AP, if we can predict a sector, it must be better of if it is big as 37 numbers. I do not know if they kesselglück at online rng wheel.

 

Did more than 2000 spins today on a nozero Wheel. Covered 2/3 using colums. The bet allways the first and second. Used 0.1 Euro and if I fell back rise it by 0.5 steps very slow progression. Highest bet was 55 on each, second highest 11. Highest down was about 10 Euro. Sometimes it took very long time to reach to new balance. Possible only on rng and NOZ as so many spins with not fair odds will be very hard´, more than 50 zeros expected on an EU Wheel, and the double on an AM-Wheel. It should take a month stay at least in a BM casino. Winning was Euro 64.35.

I will try another time again, but I think the lesson is it will take time and more of the bankroll.