Sports Betting Kentucky Derby 2016/SPORTS BETTING TOPIC

I put this on the horse racing section, but since I am not a year round horse racing daily bettor....I view the TRIPPLE CROWN as a yearly sports betting opportunity..so I will post here rather than on the horse racing thread section.



Its about a month away, So I will give some thoughts about the field and my picks once the field is more defined.

I did hear an interesting interview with The young Pincay tv analyst.

He said that since the point system was instituted, 3 out of 9 KD winners were the fave.
The reasoning he gave was that with this system, there is less chance of sprinting horses to get in the field.
In the past there was 1 or 2 sprinters that would stall after 8f. making horses behind it scatter, and have to deal with traffic issues. This often worked against the favorite.

But now there are cleaner trips.

Also, there are 2 maidens that qualify on points. That is the other side of the point system, where a maiden can actually qualify. But then again its better to have a maiden that is bred for distance, than have a sprinter that clogs up the field in the backstretch.

In the end I cannot give my real fully thought out opinions till I the post positions are drawn.

The best horse in the 18,19,20 hole is not betable in my opinion for a win.

Any observations at this point will be interesting if any of you have them

 

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

if anyone needs past performances before post [positions are drawn

 

thanks for the pp's link.....lots of horses with a shot.

 

I am starting do analysis now. Post positions will tell part ofthe story but I am not going to assign much negatives to outside posts like I used to. In recent history outside pots like 15,16, 19 have had winners. I think in a large field the 1 and 2 posts are much more hazardous to bumping and getting shuffled back.

Also I am not going to put as much weight on horses that won their last race if it appears the last win showed some leveling off.

Brodys cause won the Blue Grass, but more importantly to me is he improved in that second start off a layoff. Can he improve more off that for his 3rd start off a layoff? I think yes.

Also for reasons I listed in my first post, I wont be as negative toward accepting the good chances of a fave. I still am not totally sold on Nyquist. I watched the FLa derby online and it was a solid win, nothing spectacular, I just gotthe feeling he may not have enough left at 1&1/4

And for me, saying how much I like a jocky's experience id not worth it because there have been a fair amount of rookie jockies recently who won the KD. (rookie to the KD)

if anyone has thoughts, please add to the discussion

This age of horse is so unpredictable as some are late bloomers, and can improve immensely over a one month period. Thats what makes this race so intriguing for me,

I will be betting my usual series of dollar tri part wheels. around 600.00 worth.

 

You don't have $600 nor do you understand horses.... My goodness you're a raving lunatic

 

my dear mentally ill bitch

you dont understand this thread. Its all about sharing cogent ideas about the Kentucky Derby

If you would like to start a thread about my finances, please do so. However, having a home in California and Sparks allows me access to multiple ways to bet horses. I will probably stay over at my second home and bet at the Atlantis. But should I stay home I can bet at Goldengate fields or at the Pleasanton simulcast. Being in the medical since the late 1970's allows me to scrape together 600 dollars for this occasion, as my yearly gross is currently 140k. And my wife is a CPA.........her income pays expenses.
As my bitch you should know better than to make assumptions. You may wish that I dont have 600.....but as much as you wish.....it dont make it reality. 600 is not alot in the grand scheme of things as far as my weekend gambling bankroll.

Based on your pathetic life I can see how you look at 600 as some monumental sum. But for me its not.

My wish did come true, My bitch came to my thread and shit all over herself.

Now go clean yourself up slut, and come back when you have something substantive to add to the conversation.

If you want I will go to your baseball thread and shit all over you there. How would you like that dickhead? Or I can shit all over you on your thread in the lounge that no one responds to....and shit on you there.

There is plenty of opportunity as you are my punching bag. Where ever you go.

now get on your knees and do your work

and dont come back here until you have some facts.

And tomorrow boy, try to get the paper on my top step. Extra tip money for you!!!!!!

 

Back to the original point of the thread now that little boy has been dispatched

As I concentrate on trifectas, my views are not heavily weighted on a win, but rather coming in the top 3. I will be betting a part wheel tri of the following
4/10/13 horses-396
7/8/9 horses -294

Besides Brodies cause

I am looking at Mohayaman, as value because he is getting ignored after 4th place finish...but that was on a wet track. Before that he was on an upswing

Mor Spirit- worst he has been s 2nd. Seemed to like the track in workout.I am notgiving much credtit to the baffert angle....if anything it will probably be overbet and have less value due to last years results and the knee jerk general public betting practices. Thisis another horse that was on the upswing before a wet track last outing .

Brodies cause- third off layoff angle, but has poor speed figures, and maybe too far behind to get first, but I think can get 3rd. A definate inclusion for the bottom of the tri.

 

It's Brody's Cause McDouche... For someone who says they know horses your ignorance just oozes out minute after minute..

What I forgot about horse handicapping you'll never learn...

PLEASE anyone who wants to bet the derby don't use his information..he's as useful as tits on a bull

 

So far you have not posted one bit of info that could be helpful to anyone.
You have used the word DOUCH
you have corrected spelling
you have used the word lunatic
you have shown that 600 dollars is a immense amount to you...while I make that in a day at work

yet as you molest your nieces, and bang your mother, you dont have time to give a cogent entry about the topic at hand. You generally critique but give no specifics. Just name calling, Yeah you are so smart.

Please end your private sick behavior, and come over to the good side of humanity

I will leave you to this thread to yourself.....and reopen a new KD thread becaue I cant stand to see you soil yourself.

A blowhard that tells us how smart he is, but gives no useful info,

Take your dick out of your mother, and do some analysis and come back to my new thread and have a discussion

 

ADMIN-PLEASE LOCK MY THREAD, THERE IS AN ASSHOLE THAT WANTS TO TURN THIS INTO A NAME CALLING, SPELLING CORRECTING, PERSONAL FINANCES, SELF AGGRANDIZING EXERCIZE.....NOT THE INTENT OF THIS THREAD. I OPENED UP ANOTHER THREAD FOR THOSE SERIOUS ABOUT DISCUSSING THE DERBY.
IF SOMEONE WANTS TO ELEVATE THEMSELVES AS SOME SORT OF EXPERT, YOU WOULD THINK THEY WOULD DEBATE WITH REAL FACTS AND FIGURES, RATHER THAN NAME CALLING AND SPELLING CORRECTION.

I HAVE NO PROBLEM FLOODING HIS THREAD ON BASEBALL TO THE POINT WHERE YOU COULDNT RECOGNIZE WHAT THE THREAD IS ABOUT. HIS POSTS WOULD GET LOST. I CAN NAME CALL WITH THE BEST OF THEM WITHOUT ADDING ANY MEAT TO THE THREAD.
SO FAR I ABSTAIN FROM DOING THAT.