1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Roulette Ask Me Anything About Betting the EC's (Even Chances)

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by SPIKE, Dec 9, 2021.

  1. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2020
    Likes:
    248
    Location:
    England
    If you have an edge, the best kind of money management isn't any kind of standard progression, and certainly not the martingale (either positive or negative), but a simple percentage of bank. It compounds your profits but also protects against going bust in the event of long losing runs. The Kelly criterion is a variation of this and is the optimum staking plan. With an edge of 60% which is what Spike claims he has, with a $1000 bank he should be staking $600 per bet. However, the Kelly is "maximally aggressive" in that it aims to increase your bank at the maximum rate possible. But most bettors prefer to halve this recommended stake ($300).

    I used this calculator : https://www.albionresearch.com/tools/kelly

    Input :
    • starting bank $1000.
    • Odds 1:1
    • probability of win : 80%
    • odds must be multiple of $1
    • Minimum bet : $1
     
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2022
  2. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    865
    Location:
    midwest
    I don't care for the people who live in Paradise Places in the world, they tend to be vapid and insubstantial and insincere and insecure. All they want to talk about is money, how much their car cost, how much it costs to send their kids to school, how much their mortgage is, how much they make a year. They do this because they then can pigeonhole you and place you where you belong in the social ranking that runs their lives. You are doing this even now with your constant mockery of how much you think I play for. It's important for you to rank me to see how I measure up to your insecure social standards. You can know someone in the Midwest for your entire life and never know how much money they make a year or what their mortgage is or what they paid for their car. That's because nobody talks about it because in the scheme of things it's very far down the list. It's why I left those kind of places behind, those people are not real. They live their entire lives trying to impress everybody else, which is no life at all.
     
  3. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    865
    Location:
    midwest
    The Kelly Criterion is boring and complicated and I have no interest in it at all. It's more for people that have investment portfolios. I prefer flat betting, it is safe and risk-free.
     
  4. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2020
    Likes:
    248
    Location:
    England
    How complicated is it to bet a % of your bank? And it's safer than flat betting, not more risky. If you want to play it safe just bet a constant 2.5% of your bank. And if you don't want to recalculate every bet just flat bet every session but calculate 2.5% of your bank every day and use that as the new flat bet stake for each day.
    e.g. suppose you have a $5000 bank. 2.5% of this is $125, which is your stake for day 1. You make your 1 unit and so now have $5125. 2.5% of this is £128.13 (round to the nearest dollar) which is the stake for day 2. Rinse & Repeat.
     
  5. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    865
    Location:
    midwest
    Nope, too complicated. You don't get it, I just want to get in get it done and get out. And I certainly do not want to look like to the computers analyzing my game like I have some kind of complicated plan going on. Flat betting is the safest thing to do online because it does not raise any alarms. Nobody flat bets, everybody is a smart-ass whiz-bang make money with the casino's money wise guy. I want to be viewed as the ploppy who just is lucky. You guys overthink everything and you always underestimate the intelligence of your opponent, the casino
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  6. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2020
    Likes:
    328
    Occupation:
    Unknown
    Location:
    Nowhere
    Thats sounds all very American to me. No one gives a fuck about that here.

    You're cluless about life in Australia so you should probably just shut the fuck up. I know you can't because you have been talking shit your entire life.

    Its a very different culture here, without a doubt one of the most egalitarian cultures on the planet.

    Hence why you're getting cut down to size for being the twat you are.
     
  7. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2020
    Likes:
    248
    Location:
    England
    lol. You reckon WE overthink things? Do you honestly believe that the casinos have people busily analysing your bets and trying to figure out your system? I see this a lot on forums and it's hilarious. The casino doesn't care what systems you're using, especially online where the APs can't do their magic. Their profits are all taken care of with the house edge and limits, and if they did have a mind to cheat you it would be by changing the outcome after you'd made your bet (and there are logistical challenges with this unless it's an RNG), in which case whatever system you're using is irrelevant. And if nobody flat bets it means you're the odd one out and are likely to attract attention, not the other way around as you suggest. It would be better to use a martingale if you want to stay under the radar then you'll look just like another dumb gambler. But it's just your paranoia which is causing you to complicate things; the truth is the casino is very unlikely to ban you unless they think you're an AP and clocking the wheels. But for that you have to be in a B & M casino.
     
    TwoUp and David Gregory like this.

  8. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2020
    Likes:
    328
    Occupation:
    Unknown
    Location:
    Nowhere
    I've mentioned Kelly previously. Way way back on this thread that with a positive edge it's the proven method to maximize returns, and is used by all serious investors, fund managers.

    But the spike has an irrational mind. Never will sense meet reason. He is doomed to shelling peanuts.

    It's all accademic anyway because he doesn't have a positive edge in reality, and Kelly can only be applied to avoid risk of ruin where there's a real edge.
     
    David Gregory and Median Joe like this.
  9. Benas

    Benas Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2018
    Likes:
    156
    Occupation:
    Looking for peoples who play better...
    Location:
    Ania,PL
    Here are a few moments ...

    Playing by Kelly is not the best option, because on roulette it is often very unclear what kind of advantage a player has, even if he is an Advanced player.

    Moreover, long losing streaks are not common with Advant players. So there is nothing to be afraid of...

    After reading discussions in the forum it seems that only winners are gathered here ... but quite funny become after reading the discussions - that you need to win one unit a day ... :). Normally my familiar AP wins thousands of units in a session...
     
    David Gregory likes this.
  10. Zaratrusta

    Zaratrusta New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2022
    Likes:
    0
    Location:
    Argentina
    In his writings Spike expresses that he does not want to increase his income and progress with his earnings. He only looks for a monthly profit amount and he does it by earning one chip per day, so implicitly the Kelly criterion or something similar is not useful for his objectives.
     
  11. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2019
    Likes:
    172
    Location:
    Ocala, Florida
    You accidentally left out a word in your last sentence: "The Kelly criterion or something similar is not useful for his peanut objectives."
     
    TwoUp likes this.
  12. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2019
    Likes:
    172
    Location:
    Ocala, Florida
    I hear it stated over and over, you need a positive edge to get ahead. How does one get a positive edge in a 50/50 game of chance?
     
    Keyser Soze likes this.
  13. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    865
    Location:
    midwest
    Wow, that struck a nerve so there must be some truth to it. I've been to Australia way too hot for me. You can have it. It's going to be owned by China someday anyway probably the next 30 Years
     
  14. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    865
    Location:
    midwest
    I do not make one unit per day I've never said I make 1 unit per day. I make 1 unit per session and I play more than one session a day. There are 13 casinos in my state that have live roulette wheels.
     
    Rond1nell1 likes this.

  15. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    865
    Location:
    midwest
    People, no. Online casinos use computers to analyze your play it's built into the system. I want to do the least amount I can to stay under the radar for as long as I can. Casinos do not like consistent winners who don't give money back to them. Flat betting is advantageous online because it draws no attention to you. Using a progression always draws attention if you consistently win with it online. Any progression.
     
  16. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    865
    Location:
    midwest
    By having a specific game that you play against the outcomes in roulette and only play that game when the outcomes are playing it. If they are not playing it you don't bet. This gives you a huge advantage. To be extremely simplistic let's say your game is only betting red numbers. If the outcomes on the tote board are all black it's not playing your game and you would not bet. You would wait for the board to be mostly red. Of course what I do is much more sophisticated than that and complicated.
     
    Nathan Detroit and Keyser Soze like this.
  17. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2019
    Likes:
    172
    Location:
    Ocala, Florida
    What is the research that you have done to prove that online casinos use computers to analyse your play because it is built into the system? Are you talking about live play or rng's?
     
  18. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    865
    Location:
    midwest
    Both. If you play online and go to the history tab it will show you every single thing you've ever done at that casino. Every bet you've made every payout, what day you did it on what hour and minute you did it on, everything. That data is constantly analyzed to look for anomalies. One thing they constantly look for is people who abuse their promotions. But they also look for Advantage players because that affects their bottom line. They do it in brick-and-mortar casinos but it's much less precise. I've been backed off roulette tables in Las Vegas just because I was writing the outcomes down and they suspected that I might be a VB player.
     
  19. David Gregory

    David Gregory Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2019
    Likes:
    172
    Location:
    Ocala, Florida
    Okay thanks, that answers that.
     
  20. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 17, 2018
    Likes:
    45
    Location:
    kalimba
    how many sessions in day your able to complete average then and + units
     

Share This Page