Las Vegas GF Chat Room

Networking and sharing information and strategies just as I do with quite a number of players.

 

^^^ Shortest post EVER by UNKOOL. ^^^

 

How is it a scam when no money is involved?

 

Bill Gates used to piss off the high stakes poker players at the Mirage because he would only sit in the 3-6 holdem games. That's $3 and $6 betting. Can you imagine that? A billionaire playing 3-6 poker at the Mirage? But he refused to let the high stakes poker pros take him off.

 

I know a cat worth a coupla hundred millions and he used to go to the Las Vegas stay at the old Imperial Palace and would buck up against the 1$ 21 game at the O'Shea's, hey hey.

 

Translation (from Martian to English):

I'm afraid to post any picks before the games are played.

 

Here's where your lack of education hits you like a sledge hammer, again. Read what tater said, then read it again. Then, explain where he explicitly says what you twisted his words into meaning.

 

Bbbwwaahhhhhhhhhhh, what is it with these bulls-shits artist, the spikes, the limeys, the gizmos, the singers makin the scene with the tale what get taller and taller in a desperate attempt to seek ever more attentions, hey hey????

 

You can't even respect the guy by telling the truth about what he's been posting for years, instead choosing to cherry pick and spin ONE of his posts to fit your sick narrative. No one would ever bother with "networking" with a lying little twit like you--unless it was a community of people who fake their own death in order to escape verbal lashings.

 

Translation from mythomania: I lied about the 68% at LVA forums, but I didn't know my lie was so far-fetched. I better change the subject and not refer to that 68% again.

 

Hmmm....I've REALLY got your attention now! Too bad you didn't choose cowardice when you claimed you'd interview me. I'd have pointed out that 68% isn't even 7 out of 10.

Watch and learn, as I try to soar past my old record.

 

Here's a watch-and-learn challenge. Let me know if you are up for it.

If you win 68% of your games ATS picking five games a week in the NFL this season, I'll send you a check for $500. If you don't win 68% of your games ATS, you send me an autographed one dollar bill with your name and the phrase, "To the real winner."

If you win 62% of your NFL games ATS this year, I'll send you a check for a hundred bucks. If you don't, you send me a $10 Starbucks gift card, autographed by you with your name and the phrase, "To the real winner."

Let me know if you agree to the wager. if it's true that you've met Boz, then you should be good with me sending a blank check to him to hold pending your performance. You send him a dollar and the $10 Starbucks gift card, both autographed by you with the additional phrase, "To the real winner."

You pick a day and time to use the lines. We can use Caesars' sports book lines on whatever day and time you designate. But let's keep the day and time the same week to week to simplify matters.

It's essentially a free roll for you. A real advantage play. How could you turn it down?

Or maybe, and think about this, it's an advantage play for me. Deep thoughts.

These are very modest stakes. No sane person would turn them down. And you could just go track down any real handicapper and use their plays all season if you want. Who would know?

You have 48 hours to get the dollar bill and Starbucks gift card on their way to Boz. Let me know if you accept.

LOL.

 

Just catching up on the sports betting/ 68% stuff here. Of course it involves another mathematical improbably by Rob, granted not as crazy as some others and certainly nothing like 18 Yo’s, etc. Long post coming.

RED for some reason posted I don’t call Rob out. Honestly I see Rob for what his online persona is and believe it’s entertainment to him later in his life. I like the guy I met and take it as him being another guy that gets enjoyment out of fucking with certain people and uses it to pass time. I have no idea of his financial situation but I don’t find it hard to believe he has decent assets, as most 2 income earners like he and his wife have done over a lifetime, assuming they invested over the years and have pensions. He should be able to enjoy life from a comfortable financial standpoint assuming he lives within his means.

I also have no idea how much he has won or lost gambling over the years but life and common sense tells me IF he gambled as much as he claims to have he has lost a lot of money. He has no magical formula and the break even/AP VP promotions are few and far between and he really never claimed to play them anyways. And always disagreed with the Dancer methods, which did make mathematical sense at one point in time.

I have no clue if he played the DU or owned a Newell. I certainly don’t believe the 1.5M jackpot recently based on too many things not adding up along with common sense. But it’s my opinion, and it’s worthless in the overall scope.

Now for the 68% sports claim. As one who knows very few, very, very few people who win at Sports Handicapping over the years. But there are plenty more out there for claim to. Those that do use every possible advantage, spend many hours on it and still need luck to end up ahead over any metric longer than a week or 2 depending on amount of games played. The lines are so good that the average person (and most “professional” handicappers) will do very similar flipping a coin. So let’s look at flipping a coin 100 times as a gage. It’s why chickens have won handicapping contests by picking feed out of a bowl to make their picks.

The odds of someone fairly flipping a coin 100 times and getting 68 of either Heads or Tails is approximately 1 in 9500. Can it happen? Certainly more probable than (sorry Alan) 18 Yo’s in a row, and other claims out there. And when/if it happens, it’s pure luck. Are we to believe Rob is the one out of 9500 that actually did it when you add up all his other claims and how he enjoys fucking with others, of course not.

The 68% number is the nonsense handicapping frauds use to try and fleece saps into paying them for picks. Any time you see this number it’s a dead giveaway it’s a fraud. It’s the same reason RED and I bash people for parlays. Yes, there are certain money line and line change opportunities where a parlay might offer a value compared to straight bets, but they are few and far between. But overall parlays are for suckers, I.e. those who “think” they know what’s going to happen in a game. Why do you think everyone is offering big bonuses to sign up for online books? They know the math and unless one has the discipline to beat the bonus and walk away, they know it’s a money maker for them.

Long post to say I don’t believe for a minute Rob hit 68% on his NFL picks over 2 seasons. Nor do I believe we will ever see 68% over 2 seasons with a required number of weekly picks in any documented contest. But he got a discussion going, which as always is his goal.

Hopefully everyone betting college football had a decent weekend filled with breaks that went their way. Many of the bigger matchups could have went either way against the spread. Including all those who thought Oregon and Over was easy money.

 

About the only thing I did right the first two weeks was get the line moves correct. I had a heartbreaker last night. I had Clemson -21 for 1 Unit and came back with GTech +24 1/2 for 1/2 unit. Brutal. Had the thing middled until Clemson goes two-minute drill with five minutes left against the GTech subs. Clemson wanted their "backup" -- he's better -- QB to get some experience. It's only a matter of time until they plug the "backup" in as the starter. He was the top dual-threat recruit (and a white boy).

Huge line moves are happening. Many middle opportunities, but you have to get the moves right. And then have some kind of opinion. People bet the living hell out of Appalachian State (6 1/2 point move) and managed to win the thing if they bet it early. That game middled as App State opened +3, then closed -3 1/2, which was incredibly disrespectful to the level of players on UNC.

I steered clear of Oregon and Georgia. I have NC State to win the ACC, as you know, but I couldn't understand the East Carolina line, so I had the Pirates. I thought they were live. ECU is very good. I actually had my girlfriend plug them in to win outright in a Fanduel contest. She would have picked up a check for 5K had they won because she got the other pick 'em games correct.

On the other hand, I had Temple +10. Ugh. I knew I was done after two possessions. Losing 30-0 to Duke is never a good thing. Temple made the spanking new Duke QB look like Joe Montana.

If Rob wants a shot at my $500, he's welcome to it. I figure he has about a 1 in 3000 shot of pulling it off. That means it's an advantage play for me. I win my money the old fashioned way -- one dollar at a time.

The only thing I ask of Rob taking his shot at my money is that he not quit after four or five weeks, as he's prone to do. Get a taste of the public exposure and pressure of week-to-week actual handicapping. Learn what's it's like to fail in public. And then have to suck it up and keep going to the best of your ability.

 

I'm confident I can actually best 68% over this season. If I don't, why would anyone care? Oh that's right--68% is unobtainable. Kind of like THE $1.5MILLION VP WIN I HAD THAT NO ONE ANYWHERE AND VIA ANY KIND OF NONSENSICAL CLAIMS, HAS BEEN ABLE TO CREDIBLY DISCREDIT....other than all the hopes and wishes that it is not real. Dan certainly perpetrated that line of thinking by claiming to have fallen asleep when he had the opportunity to verify the win.

Boz, you'll get nowhere with these morons when you bring up simple common sense about how two Aerospace engineers could possibly be living a lot better in their retirement than a bunch of LV so-called "AP's". They don't want it to be like that, just like they didn't want us to have had that stupid RV, or my having played the DU bug and having hit the largest VP win ever. To them, they only want "broke", "destitute", and "desperate". Why do you think redietz, after proclaiming he'd meet with me anywhere in the country when he understood we were on a cross-country tour, chose instead to weasel his way out of meeting me as soon as I provided an address where we'd be in Maine.

Yes I thoroughly enjoy bringing these fools to their knees, but I do it by providing complete truth. And nothing beats the satisfaction derived from doing it like that

 

I believe you folks who think a 68% win rate against the spread is too unlikely to occur, are being blinded by trying to look at it's probability from a professional gambler's point of view.

I'm no sports betting pro. Yet about 10 years ago--right in front of redietz on VCT by the way--I hit a very improbable 5-team parley for over $40,000 up at Lake Tahoe. Red congratulated me on that hit BTW.

So who's to say that 68% is soooo impossible to attain over two NFL seasons....and why would it be such an impossible task to better it for this one season?

Bettors like me go on common sense, being a fan, and non-math analyses. That's why I'm not betting a ton each week. But 70% IS NOT out-of-reach for this kind of picking.

 

Great! Five NFL ATS games per week for the season. You get 500-1. So send along the Starbucks card and the one dollar bill, both signed, and I'll send a blank check off to Boz.

Boz, please PM me at VCT with the proper address. I go to UPS almost every day, so I'll get the check in the mail as soon as Rob verifies he's shipping the signed Starbucks card and the dollar bill.

Over and out.

This is what happens when somebody who's been doing this for 40 years is "blinded by trying to look at its probability from a professional gambler's point of view." They do dumb things like laying 500-1 for a dollar.

Woe is me.

Rob, I'll even sweeten the pot. If you hit between 67.5 and 67.9%, I'll return the dollar.

 

Take a seat red, sit back, and relax as my picks unfold throughout the season. Remember smartmonies on LVA? He claimed wins that were far-fetched, and that's all he did. I'm posting the games for all to witness. And at the end of the 17-game season, let's not hear "oh, anybody can do well in the SHORT TERM".

 

LOL. What a brave soul, claiming to have won 68% ATS in the NFL for two years at LVA. You did post that, didn't you? Or was that a fever dream? Let me check on that.

Nope, nope, I see it here in black and white.

This is what happens when someone who has no clue what they're talking about starts declaring things like they won 68% of their NFL plays ATS for two years. They get called on it. I mean, dude, you may as well have said you could fly.

So much for the declaration that you won 68% of your games ATS for two years in the NFL and posted it at LVA. Wait, wait, was that a fever dream? No, I'll check it again. You actually claimed that.

What a fuckin' clown.

Damn, I needed that dollar.

 

A guy just flat out lies, through his teeth, claiming to have done something no public handicapper has ever done. He lies because he's too naive to understand the history and difficulty involved in what he's claiming.

Just comedic. And now he'll try to deflect from the fact that, in black and white, he claimed to have won 68% ATS in the NFL for two years. LOL. Just pitiful. Like Don Knotts walking into a Mayweather gym and claiming he was the cruiserweight champ.