1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Craps I have these great rolls and only manage a win of $100 -$200 where other players are cashin in...

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by selfer61, Feb 25, 2015.

  1. selfer61

    selfer61 Guest

    I have these great rolls and only manage a win of $100 -$200 where other players are cashin in big filling their rack. I am a mostly a red better starting bankroll of about $200 - $300 per session. I usually start out with a pass line bet with one or two times odds and place the 6 and 8 for 12 each. I collect on one hit and increase in increments of 1 unit on every other hit. If I make the point I increase my odds by 50%. If things are going well I will also place the 5 and 9 for $10 and press 1 unit after every other hit. When I SO I usually leave more on the table than in the rack. Any ideas of what I am doing wrong?
    Statistics: Posted by selfer61 — Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:43 pm — Replies 15 — Views 367

    Source.
     
  2. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Likes:
    26
    Occupation:
    Professional Gambler
    Location:
    Toronto
    Sorry, just saw this ....

    Let me see if I can give you the "Dice doctor" answer - but you should know that some of the "increase" in your chips comes at a cost - that when the dice don't make several passes - you take a hit.

    Let me explain.

    1st - your starting bank roll of $200-$300 is a little light to be betting on "every shooter" but is fairly decent. Put that money in the Top rack of your chip stack - leaving the bottom rack open. That way - as you go through your stake you can keep tabs on where you are.

    2nd - I love the pass line bet - stick to 2x odds - if you get ahead of your stake - meaning you lock up more than your starting bank roll - then increase your odds to 3-4-5

    3rd - NO FIVE NINE bets - your giving up 5% Vig to the house. ONLY if your ahead can you start to spread.

    4th - Increase bets on 6/8 -- 12/18/30/42/60 SAME BET - 90 SAME BET - 120-18-300 etc. So you press it up - then same bet - then press same bet - then run till you drop ... obviously not set in stone - but I would pencil out how you want to play - what you feel comfortable with

    5th - Pass line bets - consistent for the first 3 wins - then press to 10$-15$-25$ etc.

    This is a modified "Dice Doctor" betting style - based on what you have in your bank roll and tolerance....pm for more details.
     
    Gargoil likes this.
  3. Gargoil

    Gargoil New Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2015
    Likes:
    2
    Couldn't have said it better. Also remember other players are your usual gamblers while you are a regular. Dont look at it making small amounts on long rolls. Look at it as saving money on short rolls and PSI.
     
  4. Rudy

    Rudy Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2015
    Likes:
    10
    Location:
    Craps, roulette, baccarat tables .
    I don't know an investor who would be upset with a 33% t0 a 100% gain on their money in a couple hours. If your consistently making that kind of return, reinvest the profits, increase your bankroll then your buy in and bet size. Then write a book on your winning methods. Your ahead of most.

    With going to my local casino 4 to 5 times a week, you get to see the same players and yes there are times they win big. But very few if any are long term winners. Most press, press ,press, and lose. Go to the ATM get more cash rebuy and complain of there losses. They have a couple hot shooters in a row, they pull big winnings but that is not enough and keep playing only for the table to go sour and what do they do press their bets, its got to hot again.
     
    Harley likes this.
  5. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Likes:
    26
    Occupation:
    Professional Gambler
    Location:
    Toronto
    Every bet you make comes at a cost.

    It really comes down to Bank Roll, Session Roll and Bet sizing. When people press press press they are taking short term hits for that 1/100 roll that hits a home run and hope to make all their losses back up for it.

    I tend to play that style myself - I prefer to walk out with thousands on one roll than hundreds on several, and am willing to take a lot of hits along the way. I guess where I have others, is I am very methodical in my bet size etc. and play ultra disciplined....where maybe they chase their losses and might not have the bank roll behind them to survive.

    Here is an example to your point....

    Player One wins 3x in row on the six and 3x in a row on the eight - wins 2 pass line bets and is a consistent bettor beside you ... he bets 12$ on the six/eight and a pass line bet of 10$ and double odds...the two pass line winners are on a 5 and 9.

    Player Two wins 3x in row on the six and 3x in a row on the eight - wins 2 pass line bets and is a consistent PRESSER beside you ... he bets 12$ on the six/eight to start and presses to $18 on win one, $30 on win two and $42 on win three and a pass line bet of 10$ and double odds...on the first win he pumps it up to $15 on the line and $30 odds....and then $25 - $50 after that win...

    Now go do the math ... who wins more?

    It's this realization to the PRESSING public - wholly crap ....
     
  6. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    89
    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    This is exactly what I see at the local Indian Casino that I frequent as well. Even the dealers say "Its not good" when a player goes to the ATM three times to replenish the buy in. The regulars at the casino for the most part live on social security/investments and pension income. Some can afford to lose 20K a year to the casino, most can't. Lots of complaining about losses, short rolls and constantly losing. The hot rolls never really make up for the much more frequent losses, it is not even close.
     
  7. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Likes:
    26
    Occupation:
    Professional Gambler
    Location:
    Toronto
    So back to the thread and the point of the question guys ...

    So just on Place Betting ...

    Player one - Wins Six times - with out pressing - = $14x6 = $84 less buyin of $24 so up $60.00

    Player two - Wins and Presses ... on press one bets $12.00 and presses to $18.00 - so change of $8.00 then Presses to $30, so change of $9.00 and then presses to $42.00 change of $24.00 ... so he collects ($8.00 + $9.00 + $24.00) $41.00 per number (so betting six and eight) so $82.00 total less buyin ... whew....58$.

    Same Bettor wins $60.00 the Presser $58.00....

    At this point the money starts to swing to the Presser and they pick up substantially more than the same better...

    If you did the math on the pass line ... you'll see similar results ... yet I still advocate a "pressing" philosophy...
     
    $nakeEye$ likes this.

  8. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    89
    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Average length of Rolls per shooter (including DI shooters) is 8.3
    You have a 33% chance to roll a six every roll. Most shooter just say 1 in 6 or if you are on the six and eight then 1 in 4.
    The odds of rolling a seven are is 40% or 1 in 6.

    With every roll, your odds of surviving greatly diminish!
    1. 100% (point set is six)
    2. 88%
    3. 77%
    4. 66%
    5. 57%
    6. 49%
    7. 42%
    8. 37% (average rolls where most people seven out)
    9. 31%
    10. 27%

    The odds of survival after the shooters 4th roll don't look promising at all, and smart players come down on all bets, and perhaps even making a Don't come bet or Laying against a number.

    Pressing bets may be more for the casinos advantage than yours. The longer you keep your bets up, the more of a shot the casino has to win. Pressing your winnings only diminishes your overall wins, in my humble opinion.

    The alternative to pressing on a win is to 'make a pressed bet'. So on shooter one, you bet a $12 six, and it hits. You come down with your bet and wins and wait for the the seven to show. Next you make a $18 bet on the six, hit hits and you come down and again wait for the seven to show. Again, you bet $30 on the six and wait for it to hit, come down, and wait for the seven. This goes on like this till you lose your bet, then you start over from the beginning.

    Far more short hands than hot hands. The odds of at least one six or eight before the seven are actually good. Just know that if you don't get that win with in the first 5 rolls, you have to come down and wait for the seven.
     
  9. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    89
    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Six and down for the count...

    I have watched many players play the Don'ts by waiting for the shooters 6th roll and making a lay bet against a number that has previously just hit. So on the shooters fifth roll, if the number was the nine, the player then would lay the nine.

    On a win you press up your lay bet like this: Take, Parlay, take, Parlay, ... I have personally players who play like this quickly hit the ceiling of the table limits, and I watched one player win 18K in the span of 3 hours starting with just a $100 buy-in. Of course be aware of table trends, hot and cold.
     
  10. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Likes:
    26
    Occupation:
    Professional Gambler
    Location:
    Toronto
    Mark, I always respect your posts but I think you need a math lesson on Gambler's Fallacy.

    If a six hits - is it more or less likely to hit on the next roll?

    What are the odds of a coin flipping heads after three successive tails?

    What is the likely hood of a seven coming on the 14th roll of a players shoot after the dice hit the rail and then bounce into my vodka water?

    The answer sir - is nothing changes....the odds of something happening especially at the dice table are entirely independent of any previous toss. Its called Gambler's Fallacy.

    I can appreciate the Don't Press advice your giving but I want to be honest - you'll never overcome house edge without a strict adherence to PRESSING YOUR BETS.
     
  11. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Likes:
    26
    Occupation:
    Professional Gambler
    Location:
    Toronto
    I'm not sure if you could elaborate on this - The odds of survival don't look promising at all - in actual fact on any roll you are a dog to the seven if you are on the pass line - in fact the "TRUE" odds of winning and losing on this role are 2-1 on the 4/10 - 3-2 on the 5/9 and 6-5 on the 6/8 ... any other valuation your placing is incorrect. I think you need to review Gambler's Fallacy. I think it's dangerous to think of the game in terms of what event is likely to happen next based on the previous event. The Dice have no memory my friend.

    When you say all Smart Players come down - not sure I follow? And perhap's even making a Don't Come Bet (again what is the advantage of making a Don't Come Bet vs. a Place Bet or Laying a Number?) you're basing this advice on "Dice Trends" which I think in principle don't exist. The odds of winning and losing a bet (without complicating it with DI argument) is the true odds of the number your trying to throw. The Vig your subject too doesn't change because you switched bets. Your just as likely to roll another SIX (well at least 5 out of 36 times) and win on your place bet as your as to roll a Seven (6 out of 36 times) then win on your come out ... just because the shooter has held the dice 8.3 times doesn't mean a seven is coming any more on the next few rolls than it did previously.

    [/QUOTE]Pressing bets may be more for the casinos advantage. The longer you keep your bets up, the more of a shot the casino has to win. Pressing your winnings only diminishes your overall wins, in my humble opinion.[/QUOTE]

    Pressing bets are actually beneficial way to stay ahead of Vig - the only way to beat the edge the house has. To stay and same bet all the time or run and gun will fail because your staying in a place where Vig will where you down. The house has the edge.

    What's dangerous to a Casino is someone who presses their bets and challenges their bank roll to expand. Now I will agree with you - definitely and issue with Pressing and not having a strategic bank roll per session and over all to compete. It does take a long term philosophy where Pressing is at the core - to win long term in my humble opinion.

    Of course - you could bet one unit and one bet and say the Casino Vig has little chance to get me because my money isn't up.

    Pressing your winnings only diminishes your over all wins, in my humble opinion. I would say that each player needs to fully grasp the strategy they adhere too. I'll agree Mark that for some that press press press - they don't get that it will be 1/100 rolls where they might see a HUGE profit and therefore make up for the MANY Losses they'll see. And when that HAND does show - are they willing to PRESS to the point where the previous 98 times at the table where pressing cost them - that they can bet the MONSTER hand - that is also an issue.

    BUT to say that I'll make less money because I press is incorrect ... we may actually end up in the same place....to be honest.
     
  12. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Likes:
    26
    Occupation:
    Professional Gambler
    Location:
    Toronto
    The sheet you reference is not quite what you make it out to be and has many variables that are part of the calculation. You seem to base the argument that the previous roll impacts the next - I think he refers to all decisions previously made (Come Out win, loss, point made not made etc.) and the percentage of surviving those decisions.

    Your arguing numbers - he is arguing results....somewhat different.

    You say take it down after 4 numbers because the numbers skewer against you - what if you won the first four decisions?

    I would reread and understand what it is Wizard is answering - referencing a question on Mathproblems.info page 204 about the borgata roll.

    It takes into account winning on the come out, making a point etc. and also offers this nugget - what are the odds after your 10th roll of sevening out on roll 11.... .03% ... solid!
     
  13. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Likes:
    26
    Occupation:
    Professional Gambler
    Location:
    Toronto
    and just so were clear - I invited Mark V to the forum and love debating him because I respect his opinions on the game ... it's nice to have an intelligent debate about craps play ... and he is a solid craps player....we may disagree but I still respect him. He has been around ... and the beauty of the game is there are more than one way to skin a cat...and each method DOES WORK...at some point.

    That's why we all have this child like fascination about the game.
     
    Mark V likes this.
  14. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    89
    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    The Grafstein method of play, as described in the book "The Dice Doctor" are not advantage play. All of his methods bring you to the lowest house edge and sets you up to capitalize on hot rolls.

    Having played the Grafstein methods fairly strictly for two years now, it is very possible to have sessions where no hot rolls happen at all, and you can go on long strings of losing as well. I like the Grafstein methods because they are simple and you don't really have to think about them that much. As a casual player, using these methods to establish a set play level for comps works well enough and becomes amazingly fun on a hot roll. I still use at some casinos I play at, though I am not as strict with the pressing as in the book. I tend to take the first three wins, then press up a bit, then take three more pressed up bets, then continue to press a bit then take. You sort of have to go with your gut on this one.

    Now, regressions, be it partial or total, is a form of Advantage Play since by taking down your bets after a win or before a certain amount of rolls, in my example taking down somewhere around the fifth roll, actually give you the advantage. House edge is computed where your bets stay up till the seven comes along!!

    Regressions are designed to win with short rolls with bets that have the highest probability to win and in a time frame where you have a strong chance to survive the seven. The casinos don't like regressions, they want your money on the table so they an put it in their bank when the seven comes! Players who regress are often rated very low or put in the waiting room in the comp computer (meaning no comps).

    Play one way here, another over there.
    Some casinos I have to use regressions just to survive. These are casinos I really don't need the comps for, I have no intention to stay there, eat or use any of their services. Other Casinos that tend to have better tables and rolls, I use the Gafstein methods because I do want the comps and the freebies they give.

    All in all, you just have to go with your gut feeling on how to play at any particular casino.
     
    Grafstein_disciple likes this.

  15. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Likes:
    26
    Occupation:
    Professional Gambler
    Location:
    Toronto
    lots to debate - which I finally see on this forum...a discussion on Methods of play and bets and bank roll...finally I feel like a fifty year old instead of ten.

    I only wish it wasn't me doing the debating since I know what I know and would love to hear some intelligent author come in at this point and debate both Mark and I...not to mention my wife is bitching at me and two sick kids.

    Mark, a pleasure to debate this ...I think the pressing and same betting is a math problem. To either stick it out and "always" press to the point where that roll where your two presses short like at the 2k mark (i.e. 18-30-42-60-90-120-180-300-420-600-900-1200-1800...)

    Say where you same bet 3x during the roll instead of following through on your pressing - means on the monster roll you miss out on some profit? I am not enough of a math expert to figure this one out... and I am not debating that this example happens very very rarely but does happen.

    While you go with your gut - I prefer to work it out all with math - at some point I think we'll agree but it's hard to put a math equation together that accurately represents this argument.

    Your second series of comments on regressions I'll have to delve into - no time right now.

    Thanks for keeping it Classy in your reply - the respect in your posts is appreciated!!
     
  16. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2015
    Likes:
    26
    Occupation:
    Professional Gambler
    Location:
    Toronto
    FYI, I just noticed this in not a post started by a member here on this forum but lifted from Heavy's Axis Power Craps ... and I will no longer participate in any thread which is lifted from another source. Regardless of the rules - I respect those that contribute to the game including Heavy!

    I think this forum just lost a whole lot of credibility by lifting a post from another Craps forum - REGARDLESS of the law - it's piss poor etiquette.
     
    Gargoil likes this.
  17. cleaningwindows

    cleaningwindows New Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Likes:
    2
    Location:
    mustang ranch
    If I am playing Sams stretch play I will bet the 5 and 9 I like his stop loss move on this play also
     
  18. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2014
    Likes:
    17
    Occupation:
    retired software engineer
    Location:
    Woodland, CA
    Huh? Chance of a six on any given roll is 13.89%, same for eight, 16.67% for a 7.
    Once a point is set, you only care about the point and the seven, so:
    p(s) = 5/11 = 45.45%
    p(7) = 6/11 = 54.54%

    How did you come up with those figures? They don't make any sense to me. You can't mean, can you, that you have an 88% chance to get another six before a seven? Maybe you mean you have an 88% chance to survive a shooter's 2nd roll? That makes a little sense, although the correct figure is 83.3% (30/36 = .833; 30 ways to NOT roll a 7, out of 36 possible rolls. The rest of your numbers appear to relay on a misunderstanding of probability. The chance of rolling a seven is ALWAYS 16.67%, 1 in 6. The seven never is "DUE", nor is any other number.

    Again, this is based on a logical fallacy: the probabilities of the six and seven never change.

    You may be confused by this:
    probability of hitting one six, then a seven = .4545 x 5454 = .2479
    " " two sixes, then a seven = .1127
    " " three sixes, then a seven = ..05122

    The chances of better more hits diminish, but these odds are valid ONLY before you start.
    After you've hit one six, the probability of hitting another before the seven is THE SAME.
    Chance of hitting two sixes, having already hit one = chance of hitting the first seven.

    It's like coin flipping: p(HH) =.25, but p(HH) AFTER hitting the first head is .5.
    Assuming non-DI play, the only reason to pull down a bet is to not face the house edge; the chance of winning the bet is always the same.
    Grafstein_disciple tried to explain this.

    As far as pressing bets, it increases the volatility, which means larger wins with good luck, larger losses with bad luck. In the long run the more you bet, the more you expect to lose (but hope not to). Pressing is the other side of the Martingale (increasing bets after a loss).
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
  19. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2014
    Likes:
    17
    Occupation:
    retired software engineer
    Location:
    Woodland, CA
    Mark V wrote: "Now, regressions, be it partial or total, is a form of Advantage Play since by taking down your bets after a win or before a certain amount of rolls, in my example taking down somewhere around the fifth roll, actually give you the advantage. House edge is computed where your bets stay up till the seven comes along!!"

    If you take a bet down, wait for the seven-out and the next shooter, then make the bet again, you're still dealing with the same probabilities, which never change. You are lowering your risk per time; you can't lose, but you can't win, either. The whole idea is based on the mistaken idea that prior rolls have an effect on future ones. Of course, the less you bet, the less your expected loss.

    Let's look at 3 rolls after the comeout. We could get a 6 on any one of the rolls, a 7 on any one, or neither.
    ways to win: (6 x x) (x 6 x) or (x x 6), where x = any other number besides 7
    ways to lose (7 x x) (x 7 x) or (x x 7) where x = any other number besides 6
    p(6) = .1389
    p(7) = .1667
    p(any other number) = 1 - .1389 - .1667 = .6944
    If you win the bet, you take it down; if you lose it, it's gone; if it's not resolved, you take it down.
    P(6xx) = .1389
    p(x6x) = .6944 * .1389 = .0965
    p(xx6) = .6944 * .6944 * .1389 = .0670
    added up, they come to .3024.

    p(7xx) = .1667
    p(x7x ) = .6944 * .1667 = .1158
    p(xx7) = .6944 * .6944 * .1667 = .0804
    added up, they come to .3629

    p(xxx) = .6944^3 = .3348

    They add up to 1.0001 (rounding)

    So, we have a probability of .3024 to win $7 = 2.1168
    and a probability of .3629 to lose $6 = -2.1774
    and a probability of .3348 to neither win nor lose
    If we net them, we get -.0606
    We only risked the bet if it won or lost, so the divisor is (.3629 + .3024) * 6 = 3.9918
    -.0606 / 3.9918 = -.0152.

    We're only risking the $6 if it's resolved within 3 rolls, which only happens about 2/3 of the time.

    I'm going to run a WinCraps simulation using 3 bettors making place 6/8 bets: one will just make flat bets and leave them up until resolved, then same bet; the second will take winning bets down and wait for next shooter; the third will use a progression. I'll give them enough bankroll to not bust within two hours (240-roll limit for each session) and run 10,000 sessions, which will be a couple of million rolls.

    WinCraps can run multiple players with each his own autobet file simultaneously, so they will experience the same dice rolls. This will take some time to program.
    More later,
    Alan Shank
     
  20. cleaningwindows

    cleaningwindows New Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Likes:
    2
    Location:
    mustang ranch
    Mr. Shank I'm curious to what the results were to the 3 bettors....did you ever run the simulation?
     

Share This Page