Intro Matt dillon

You can find us at www.mdillonwins.com. In the last 14 days we are 69-36 (66%) (+87.9 units) in NCAA hoops. Don't wait, jump on the train while we are RED HOT!!!!

 

All sports I imagine: Football, NCAA, NFL, NBA etc.?

Are costs (for packages) available at the mdillonwins.com website?

Thanks in advance, just wondering and maybe others are as well.

 

I'm a professional VP player and I know that normal and expected random fluctuation is nearly impossible to distinguish from actual brilliance; best illustrated by the fact that the best stock prognosticator of all time based his "picks" on who one the world series. (Source: "The Drunkards Walk")

I'm just curious, but how would you go about proving that your last 14 day record was anything other than chance?

I was raised in gambling to believe that "results" are the very last thing on which you'd ever want to base future play...

 

Sports are NCAA basketball and football, NBA and MLB... and all packages are listed on the purchase page of the site. Tonight is the NBA Game of the Year.

 

Interesting you replied to the question "TEACH" asked, but not mine. I'll take that as, "you can't prove anything" and are probably just trying to fleece money out of unsuspecting people. If you are so "sure about your picks" I suggest you go bet them yourself, for yourself, with your own money.

 

I will.

 

If you would like to prove us wrong you can purchase our picks or follow us on cappertek!!! Thank you sir!!!

 

Kneeland, I think your question is fair, however, I think your quick reaction that somehow anyone in his business of supply picks is fleecing someone, is like saying a stock broker telling a client what stocks are good at this moment is doing the same.

I think what might be fair is have anyone in his business to put a few picks for tonight, including a LOCK of the year, and let's judge on results, not suspicions.

I personally don't know this person, however I know Jim Feist who also provides picks and no one seems to question him, so they run a business, and should be judged on how well they advise their clients.

Only saying.... (and I don't bet)

 

I would also like to say incase anyone else reads this, that there is a 100% profit guarantee with all of the packages. So if you happen to purchase a losing day(according to the units), you will be taken care of until you are in the positives!!

 

You cannot judge on results, ever. If you could octopus would rank highly. If you're a serious gambler you should know "results" are never included in an evaluation of an advantage situation. I worked one day for a sports betting service and when I refused to lie to clients I was fired. I understand the business and until he posts "the method" by which he makes his picks it cannot be judged no matter how many wins he has or claims to have. Surly you understand this? He could be flipping a coin and claiming genius. And precisely the same thing goes on in the stock market BTW. Study after study found no results of any stock broker ever that preformed better than one could accomplish with a coin flip. I strongly recommend reading, "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" by Leonard Mlodinow .

As to the reply from givemethepoints, your reply is a non starter. I cannot prove you wrong by your results any more than I (or you) could prove you right by your results. Results do not prove anything in a situation where randomness is a factor. Have you studied math? It seems you haven't. If you had you would have heard of this thing called random chance and fluctuation. There are no hot streaks or cold streaks, there is only normal variance to which people assign misplaced meaning.

Unless you provide "the method" by which you make your picks no scientific based study into its veracity can be made. If I flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 8 out of those 10 times, it does not mean I'm good at flipping heads. In fact: IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING.

And your past and future record means even less.

 

You are right Kneeland (record not results is a better way I could have put it)..

 

i think i will stay with live poker tables, there the results , are all mine, bad or good,. i still play some online games, but not seriously, because i have a bad distrusts of software.,

 

also ,,LOL when i hear or see the name Matt Dillon, i think of Gunsmoke.,LOL

 

I don't play live poker for the same reason I don't bet sports. There is no unbiased subjective way to calculate your edge in advance of playing. Notice I said, "in advance". I only gamble on things where one can calculate exactly to the last decimal point what one's edge and hourly earn are, without ever having to play a hand. Progressive video poker is one such game. Essentially, I don't mess with "things that eat"...

 

Point of interest: My Mother knew a lot of baccarat players; about 3 out of 10 won money for an entire year, one of them won money for the year, for two years in a row. He moved to Vegas to pursue a career as a professional baccarat player convinced he had, "a system" that worked. He was of course broke and homeless one year later. And this is one of the reasons why I'm so objectionable to result/record based assessments of any kind of gambling related venture. Take a large enough sample and you'll find winners at any casino game. If you pick live keno it might take a sample size of 100 to find 1 person up for their lives. But the point is, it doesn't mean they were playing with an edge. It just means they got lucky. Of course to the person getting lucky it always FEELS like their success is a result of their actions. Human Cognitive Bias at it's best...

 

If everyone takes the time to read this, I think we can put this thread to bed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outcome_bias

 

if that's what you think , OK, everyone has their opinion about different games, i will go along with what Val Kilmer said on the movie tombstone as he played doc Holiday,. about poker and the other game in the movie case it was called bucking the tiger,, in our case it is every game but poker,, he said about bucking the tiger , the odds are on the house,. that is what i think about all casino games except poker at a table were you play people and not machines or software..,

 

I'm not sure what you seem to think is, "my opinion" I was talking about outcome bias and how results cannot be used to judge any event involving a random element. That is not "opinion" and it certainly isn't "mine"; It is the shared conclusion of the entire scientific & mathematical community and indeed a primary component of "the scientific method" itself and every study done in the history of science.

Also, if you think poker is the only beatable game, you've got a lot of catching up to do...

I've been working as a professional gambler for 25 years and never played a hand of live poker...