Blackjack Double Deck Illustrious 18 and Beyond

I'm looking for the top 20+ deviations for a double deck game (H17, DAS, NS). Anyone have a good web page, strategy card, or book to recommend?

Thank you.

 

You are spinning your wheels with insurance on the Hi-Lo Count no matter what Don Schlesinger says. For example, all eight aces gone, wipes out the house advantage on moderate plus counts

 

You are only offered insurance if the dealer has an Ace up. If the count is positive with a Hi-Lo Count, the fewer Aces left actually increases the odds of the dealer having Blackjack. If the Dealer Ace is the last Ace in the shuffle, that means ALL remaining Hi count cards have a value of 10.

 

Try my video Caption Jack which demonstrates my count at double deck blackjack at 1:20 into of the video.

 

Nowadays, a card counter needs at least 50 deviations for long-term career survival. Illustrious 18 amounts to unwary card counters' 18 illustrious self-exposures to casinos.

 

In another thread, you wrote that "each deviation from basic strategy is a telltale clue to the casino". Here you are saying that a card counter needs 50-100 deviations for longevity. These 2 statements conflict with each other.

In todays' world of card counting, with current conditions, betting correlation is much more important that playing efficiency. Most of the gain and advantage available comes from simply betting more in advantageous counts and situations. I think it is only 25% that comes from playing strategy deviations.

Each player has to decide for themselves what is important to them and works for their situation. For me personally, I embrace your quote from the other thread, that each deviation is a "tell". So I actually go the other way from what you are advicing....less deviations. I play what is known as card counters basic strategy. With CCBS, basic strategy becomes what play you would make at a true count of +3 (or +2 or +4 if you would rather).

So basic strategy becomes standing 16 vs 10, doubling 9 vs 2, standing on 12 vs 2 and 3, doubling 9 vs 7 and taking insurance. You will be playing some or most of these hands slightly incorrectly at a count of zero or +1 when your minimum bet is out, at a slight cost, but playing correctly at all times that your larger wagers are out. And in exchange for that slight cost, you show no deviations at all, eliminating one of the bigger tells for a card counter.

In my opinion and experience there are two things which thwart longevity for a card counter. Deviations and bet spread. You can eliminate the problem with deviations using card counters basic strategy. And you can remove the tell associated with bet spread by exiting at the shuffle after playing your large bets. The tell from bet spread is not when a player raises his bets, but rather when he lowers back to the minimum wager at a new shuffle. Many different kinds of players raise bets during the course of play, progressive wagering, players parlaying or bumping up when winning, players chasing losses. But only card counters go back to that smaller bet at the new shuffle.

 

UNKewlJ just spouts theory based on what he heard or read. The only time he was verifiably observed in a casino was spreading red to green.

 

I should add that in my experience there are other things that contribute to longevity, like what level you are playing and having a big enough rotation.

To achieve longevity a player needs to figure out what betting amounts are tolerated and within the casinos comfort level and these amounts can differ not only by casino, but different days and times of day (weekend nights as opposed to week days).

And you need to have a big enough rotation, so you are not seeing the same dealers and pit daily or several times a week. If you only have one local place to play and play 3-4 times a week, you aren't going to last no matter what strategies you employ.

But for anyone looking for longevity, my first 2 recommendations would be to look into card counters basic strategy to eliminate the "tell" of devastations and exiting after showing your large wager rather than retreating to minimum wager. These two things go a long way towards that goal of longevity.

 

This is trolling in what is supposed to be a non-trolling area. It is also hijacking of a legitimate blackjack discussion with nothing but an attempt to troll. Mdawg has an agenda to troll and now seems incapable of doing anything else. I request the administrators to remove his trolling post from this section and tell him to keep his trolling in the trolling areas.

 

UNKewlJ was caught lying on a daily basis over a three month period over a fictional backrooming blackjack incident. He admitted it. That admission is relevant to anything he has to say.

 

Mdawg was caught lying on a daily basis over a SEVEN month period over winnings totaling over $500k. He admitted it, when he posted "additionally wizard and I went over my records and I am about even". That admission is relevant to anything he has to say.

 

He lied a lot of times, admitted it a few times (fake death, I am not gay (I am gay), backrooming lawsuit), was obviously lying other times even though he would not admit it.

The only one who has ever admitted to lying - on a daily basis for months at a time, is UNKewlJ:

monet on the UNKewl one: Nothing you post is 100% true.
From faking your own death to using multiple sockpuppets.
Like Coach said... you are constantly lying to the forums and you have admitted to it time and time again.

CoachBelly on the UNKewl one: You're an admitted and proven liar, and a known instigator.
Nothing you post should be believed.

 

Actually, other lies of his are the "I will no longer be posting at this or any forum" and "I will no longer be responding to MDawg" lie. He's laid those whoppers down countless times too.

 

MDawg continues to troll in a non-trolling section, hijacking a legitimate blackjack discussion started by captain Jack.

Total lack of respect for others. He is only concerned about his obsession to continually troll.

 

After a person not only gets caught in but admits to daily lying for months on end, he has to accept that there will be public disclaimers posted regularly in any new lies he attempts.

Dan Druff on the extent of UNKewLyingJ's lies: Had MaxPen not done his searching, we would probably still be reading long essays about the lawsuits, and how we are all fools to be doubting it.

 

Let's get right to the heart of it UNKewlJ do you not admit that you spent three months lying daily about the existence of a backrooming lawsuit? and then finally admitted that you had lied?

 

Seemingly in conflict, but not really so. Illustrious 18 is bad because it only dumbs down counters and wises up casinos. (See Double Deck Memo of Joseph Smith of Worldwide Casino Consulting.)

Your Card Counters Basic Strategy may be workable when you can wong in and out freely, but those practices may become impracticable with 8-deck shoes with no-mid-shoe-entry rule in place.

But if you play with a wide variety of indices, instead of only with some 18 well known deviations, you may establish yourself as a erratic player while increasing your winning potentials. Some deviation plays, such as hitting on A-A or 14 vs. 2 may just do the trick.

I am of the opinion that for 8-deck shoe games, card counters better have about 80 indices between -3 and + 4 AceMT true count (equivalent to - 5 to +7 Hi-Lo TC) at their disposal. Is 80 indices too many to know? I don't think do. Even if it is too many on the first day or month, card counters may gradually build up as long as they realize that Illustrious 18 is really insufficient.

 

Mid shoe entry is a real world concern.

UNKewLyingJ is not concerned with but theory.

 

Moraine, first I apologize to you, Captain Jack who started this thread that Mdawg feels he is entitled to hijack a legitimate blackjack discussion to continue his trolling agenda.

I do play mostly, not all but mostly shoe games, 6 deck, not 8, although a couple 8 deckers with favorable penetration. And I do aggressively wong out, avoiding most of the negative counts. I play off the top of a fresh shuffle (and wong out aggressively) so NMSE is not much of a concern, plus NMSE is much less prevalent in Las Vegas where I play compared to other areas. So, I am fortunate in that regard, and it goes back to everyone should decide these things based on their own circumstances.

But there are two things I would like to remind you of. 1) is that of all the advantage that can be gained from the play strategy variation, 80% of that total can be realized by the first 18 (illustrious 18) alone. And of that 80%, 60% are from the top 3 index plays alone, insurance 16 vs 9, and 15 vs 9. So the value of these index plays starts to decline fairly rapidly after the first 3 and continues to rapidly decline after the first 18. There is a very definite and strong case of diminishing returns after 18. THAT was the who premise of the Illustrious 18.

I forget if you are on blackjackinfo, as I am sure I have seen your name somewhere, but at BJinfo, I don't know 5, 6, maybe more years ago now, Don Schlesinger, himself said, "if he were starting out today he would play a simple level 1 count and only use 18-20 index plays". He went on to say, that having learned over a hundred (I forget the exact number) he can't unlearn them, so he still plays all his index plays, but there is just no reason and little benefit for a newer player to learn any more than about 18-20. Again, that is from the guy that came up with the Ill 18 and still plays over 100 index plays.

Now I know captain Jack specifically asked about double deck, which is why I didn't immediately join the discussion. But the fact is most players today are stuck playing the 6 and 8 deck games, and the way to beat those games is more about getting the money out in advantageous counts and situations and less about strategy change index plays.

But again, everyone needs to make these decisions based on their own circumstances, what games they have available to play and so on.