Baccarat Who Can Produce Some Statistics For Me?

Hello fellow strategists!

I was hoping one of you could run a simulation of let’s say 1,000,000 shoes and then give me the number of occurrences in which the following occurred (of course excluding ties):

BBB
PPP
BPB
PBP
BBP
PPB
BPP
PBB

Then if you really have some time, how the following occur:

BBBB
PPPP
BBBP
PPPB
BPBB
BPBP
PBPP
PBPB
BBPB
BBPP
PPBB
PPBP
BPPB
BPPP
PBBB
PBBP

I know most of you will say “this won’t amount to anything” because it’s simulated. I however will say that any of these combinations can occur at ANY TIME meaning that if you can maybe devise a strategy for it, then perhaps you have a chance.

If anything comes of it, I will of course post what I’m doing in here.

Thanks in advance!

 

I can't really post a link even back to gamblingforums but Junket King had this to say about what I think you're talking about:

Thanks for those sentiments Porky,

I always grade systems by "what is their nemesis", what pattern/sequence is going to result in a losing a bunch of decisions.
This is the criteria for any system, if you can't tell me what it loses against, then I'm not interested, because you should know this..


The Triple Zz held it's own, would capture (capture as in return a win within a series of bets) chops, 2,s, 16% of any series of 3's, 4's and everything and anything else. The tolerance was a win within 4 bets.

So when it comes to it's nemesis pattern, it is way up there (on paper at least), I used this for a some considerable time at the tables. As with any casino play, you can win for months, but if you lose on occasions, struggle too often, you tend to start giving up and move on to something else.

Yes, repeating 3's only 16% of the time was the bane of the system, when your playing 50~60 shoes per week, you'll be surprised how often you'll get hit.

To explain the 16% figure.

Using columns of 3's, a streak of 3 can start from 1 of 3 positions, so that gives you a 33% chance of being hit because only those streaks of 3 starting at position 1 are your nemesis, next, an exact streak of 3 has to be the opposite of the side which you are betting, therefore you can half the 33% to 16.5%.

MM is paramount, because it is your staking regime that will fail before the bet selection, there will be many scenarios of LLW, LLW, LLW, the bet selection is doing what it is suppose to do, it is not failing, how is you staking plan handling it?

Porky you mention you ran into "pppbbbpppbbb", yep too bad if your betting bbbpppbbbppp, you must apply the brakes after 4Liar, wait for the pattern to break and commence your recoup. I've been hit by that many times and came up with a few options to attempt to circumvent the damage. I have to point out it is rare to be in the 16% zone of the above sequence.

Option #1 Record the shoe using columns of 6's and split those columns horizontally in the middle.

Instead of this (decisions are in numerical order)

1-4-7
2-5-8
3-6-9

You do this;

1-7
2-8
3-9
-----------------
4-10
5-11
6-12

You bet triple Zz both top and bottom, so for example top 3 rows would run BBBPPPBBBPPP and bottom 3 rows PPPBBBPPPBBB

Now you're probably thinking "wait a minute, what's the difference". The difference is placeholders. With the top example you have 3 rows (3 placeholders), a streak 3 starting at position 1 AND opposite to the side which you are betting is your nemesis.

With the second example, you have 6 placeholders, now a 3 streak and opposite to what you are betting has to start precisely at row 1 or row 4, yet any streak of 3 has 6 positions from which it can start. Basically I'm trying to break the damn thing up via distribution, it adds an extra layer of randomness to it, something is less likely to happen when it has 6 possible starting positions compared to 3.

Option #2

If you are encountering LLLL or LLLLLL that can only mean one thing, either BBBPPP and you're on the wrong side of it, or a streak of 6 if using option 1 above. Basically the shoe is ripe for FLD because there is no 2nd line hole gap. Hence why I suggested switching to "follow". Bearing in mind, any follow or chop trends don't last forever.

There is an element of trending involved, which I don't like, however that is solely determined by any sequences of losses.

Alas, once you start getting hit to often, I give up on it, but I did use it for a very long period, while it near enough it was very hard to fail, after you have played this for a while and look at your Win v's Loss ration, it wasn't so great, BUT the bet selection hardly failed.

Obviously applying the same principal but using columns of 4's (which I've also used when my back was against the wall), is significantly more robust, as in seriously more robust, the nemesis is something like 12.5% of any given streak of 4, that's it.

This means the bet selections wins against chops, 2's, 3's, streaks of 4's 87.5% of the time and literally everything else, it's as damn near as bullet proof as you are going to get in terms of bet selection. Like I say, I would use it for desperation recovery purposes.

So I guess you're wondering why not use it all the time?? If you are on the ball that's really shouldn't be hard to figure out!!!

 

That john-O love to make the scene with all kinda narrative and theory. Simple and plain, the bbb/bbbb gonna pop most and the ppp/pppp gonna pop the least, hey hey.

 

I’m thinking anything that would involve a B would likely be the highest ranking groups for sure. In fact I’d bet my house on it. I think though that there may be some additional statistics that could bear fruit.

 

My philosophy is simple but has allowed me to capture millions$ in nets profits; I only try to make cake buckin up against what is most likely to occur. And I never turn coconut and try and make cake buckin up against things and stuff what are less/least likely to occur, heyn hey.

 

I have said this before, Statistics is the wrong MATH to be using.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" ~Mark Twain (?)

Probability Math is better. Just sain...

 

And I agree. These numbers will allow me to come to some conclusions on the probabilities of certain events.

 

BBBB
PPPP
BBBP
PPPB
BPBB
BPBP
PBPP
PBPB
BBPB
BBPP
PPBB
PPBP
BPPB
BPPP
PBBB
PBBP

16 different combinations. Yet if you pick one every single time differently and Martingale against it, you will still lose you have a 1 and 16 chance of not picking the right combination yet. We pick it every time it’s absolutely amazing.

 

For example there are 6 hands BBBPBB. What should i count for this one?
BBB 1, PBB 1 or BBB 1, BBP 1, BPB 1, PBB 1 ???

 

Do you select specific or random shoes to play with your flat style? How many hands does the shoe have when you start with the shoe, Soxy?

 

The latter because it is a sequence in the hands based on when you jump in the hand.

 

1M shoes ~ 70M hands, it is big enough to follow Math probability.
For my system, just 1M hands enough makes B around 50.7% and P around 49.3% always. So with any systems, it would approximate like this:
BBB = 0.507*0.507*0.507*70M = 9122669
PPP = 0.493*0.493*0.493*70M = 8387621
BPB = BBP = PBB = 0.507*0.493*0.507*70M = 8870761
PBP = PPB = BPP = 0.493*0.507*0.493*70M = 8625809

 

That's true but it doesn't help. And the reason it doesn't is what soxfan still. Incredibly, hasn't figured out. There's enough 4+'s that regulate the game to near 50-50. So betting 3 < 3 is a break even bet at best . Sheesh! You're still stupid and full of shit as usual, soxfan.

 

Sidebar. Analyzing the occurrence of run lengths using the RNG can tell you if it's a fair game.