Blackjack Betting Strategy For Blackjack

Hello, new to this forum. I am looking for a betting strategy. People talk about Kelly Criterion to manage bankroll to get the optimal gain. Anyone know details here?

 

Kelly Criterion is an investment strategy first described by John Larry Kelly, Jr., a Bell Labs researcher, in 1956.

For blackjack gamblers, "Simply put, under Kelly criterion, a gambler should commit a fraction of his/her bankroll equals to the perceived expected value of the game." [From AceMT for Blackjack and Spanish 21 by Moraine Mono.]

 

How does a player determine the fraction of the bankroll given a true count?

 

Bet in proportion of the true count increments in general. For single-hand and multiple-hands blackjack bets, see Tables 13.1 and 13.2 of AceMT Blackjack and Spanish 21.

 

Moraine, are you really hawking a self published book for $30 as an answer to a somewhat simple question from someone? Pretty shameful dude!

Kelvinamb: the answer to your question is in fact Kelly criteria, morains first answer before he decided to try to sell you his book.

Kelly criteria is a formula which will tell you how much to bet for each segment of advantage (true count) so that you are betting safely with a reasonable risk of ruin and still achieving optimal or near optimal bankroll growth or winnings.

That said, it really isn't that complicated. True Kelly wagering would have a player re-calculating after every hand won or loss and betting very precise odd amounts. So the first simplification is to round off bets to the nearest easily bet amount and to only recalculate and re-size wagers and bet spread upon a significant growth or drop in bankroll (winning or losing). A lot of players will do so at 20-25% change in bankroll.

BUT, you can go even simpler than that. Prior to everyone having a computer and running simulations and calculations, there was a very simply rule of BR = 100 Max bets. Whatever your top wager is, your BR should be 100 times that for a really safe RoR. Some people use 50 max bets, taking on a little more risk. Kelly actually falls in between 50 and 100.

And it is perfectly alright to use 50 or even slightly less at 40 max bets while you work on growing your bankroll. It is a little more risk, but many players including myself, have done that when starting out.

Good luck my friend.

 

So nice to see you again, sock puppet "KJ"! And thanks for following Moraine around!

Lest anyone is misinformed by "KJ", the paper-back AceMT for Blackjack and Spanish 21 is currently priced at $49.95, not a $30-cheapo that "KJ" might want to imply.

But don't buy the book for any price, unless you really want to read it. Thanks.

 

I am a sock puppet? Of who?

On this forum there is a section where you can ask admin to investigate someone you think is a sock puppet.

My guess is you won't ask. Easier just to make empty accusations.

 

Thanks KJ for the sharing. A good starting point.

 

Funny, the sock puppet "KJ" could have denied it him/herself, but didn't. "KJ" only wanted to be investigated. That speaks volumes.

Back to the serious topic of Kelly Criterion, the most important thing to remember is NOT TO OVER BET. Any bet over one Kelly bet is taking the unnecessary risk with no benefit. In fact, if one consistently bets more than twice the Kelly bet, he/she is destined to fail.

 

I am not going to respond to the stupid, trolling part of you post, but I will address the Kelly part.

I have always heard and read similar to what you just posted. That betting 2x Kelly or more guarantees ruin at some point. But here is the thing: Hail Mary Bankroll. I have known a number of players that started out very underfunded and went with some version of a Hail Mary bankroll, which by definition is way over betting Kelly. Usually you will go broke with a Hail mary, but sometimes you will win enough before you lose, to be at a point that you can then bet more reasonably (kelly or close to it). Like I said, I have known a few people who have succeed in this type of hail mary and managed to get to the point that they can bet Kelly or less and never looked back. So I have to question this part about "destined:" or guaranteed to fail.

Most players start off under funded or playing to a very small bankroll. Even if they have money in the bank or whatever, they don't want to invest too much into their blackjack endeavor, so they are underfunded. There are two ways to go with that. You can come up with some sort of Hail Mary type plan, hoping to build your undersized bankroll to reasonable levels so you can then bet safely (kelly or lower), or the second way is to grind very small stakes until you are somehow able to build a big enough bankroll to bet safely.

I actually went with number 2, because the small bankroll I started with was non-replenishishable. I couldn't risk the Hail Mary approach. I had to grind very low stakes, until I won enough to safely bet just a little higher and then a little higher, until I was to where I wanted to be bankroll-wise.

So my point is, that I would love to hear some math type guy, explain to me the conflict between the "betting 2x kelly = guaranteed ruin and the concept of Hail Mary bankroll, of which many have been successful.

 

It has been documented and well established that UNKewlJ does not play blackjack other than some small red to green play as cover for sugar daddy male prostitution.

 

https://www.gamblingforums.com/thre...nkewlj-might-not-really-play-blackjack.25027/

 

Jesus. MDawg, no problem you exposing others...but you my friend...
Cuntplete casino pr employee. You know that I know.. you know?

 

Hmm...silence

 

For Mdawg to show up here, it takes me posting, as he stalks me throughout the internet.

So maybe this will do it for ya, Richie. Don't expect an answer to your question though. That is another matter. Maybe you will get some clever troll comment.

 

Kelly Criterion is a smart way to bet more when you're confident and less when you're not. It calculates the optimal bet size based on your odds and win chance. You’re aiming to grow your bankroll without risking it all. Just make sure you’ve got your probabilities right, or it can backfire.

 

The Kelly Criterion helps you figure out how much to bet based on your chances of winning. The idea is simple: bet more when you have a good edge, bet less when you don't

 

Welcome! The Kelly Criterion is a betting strategy that helps you decide how much of your bankroll to bet, based on your edge (probability of winning) and the odds you're getting. The goal is to maximize long-term bankroll growth while minimizing risk.