Sports Betting Redietz, sports handicapper

2023
Sydney test cricket skipptophia versus South Africa
As per page 2,3,4 this thread states the reason etc.

We are taking the draw again, we have a price of $4:20 Tuesday morning,and a quick hit at $5:00 Thursday morning.

Today Friday draw price is $1:57 have topped up on that price also, lol.

No play today so far because of …….
You guessed it …. Rain.
Easy money.

Im still amazed at how many times the draw is offered BEFORE the start of the Sydney test at over $3:50 min. Year in year out.
As stated previously this thread

I’m amazed that people only bet on the draw

AS

it’s starting to rain

and getting the pitiful prices of $1:50 to $1:20 price range . If this was played in amerikatopia they would be the same people that use the hand E clapp tipping service of some sheriff puppet.

 

Day 4
Skipptophia v souf afreeka

End of day play market .
We lost a full day to rain yesterday, I was feeling good.

Today was a half day ish play as rain delayed. Disappointing no rain, lol. What is needed is rain tomorrow to really secure the draw result, unfortunately rain is not on the forecast . That leaves the game in the souf afreeka hands to survive, highly unlikely but doable if they show some backbone.

As per strategy set out pages 2.3.4. this thread I’ve topped up on draw and skipptophia to win as the prices fluctuate. Still prefer the draw result as a return but happy to settle for a skipptophia win at a lesser return.
Money in he bank people. Money in the bank.

 

Day 5
From the stands watching the grass grow, lol , “ willing the draw” lol
We got the draw , plenty of cash in the bank , have adjusted the bankroll ( AGAIN) for next summer skipptophia cricket.

We have an Ashes series in pomtophia, I June ish , might do a mini bankroll for that 5 test series. Cheers.

 

I know next to nothing about sportsbetting. I got greedy and lost four-$1000 bets in a row last year -- all recommended picks from pro handicappers. That's when I decided sportsbetting is much harder than it looks, and I went back to what I do best: Baccarat.

But I respect those who do bet Sports and know what they're doing, unlike me.

I learned not to bet on hockey or soccer, because there's not enough scoring, and one fluke goal could ruin my bet.

Seems to me basketball is the most stable and predictable bet, where the Moneyline favorite has the best chance of winning, but I don't know.

What I don't understand is why anyone uses the ATS Spread Bets. I understand the Moneyline appeal. But by the time the bookmakers determine the spread, this makes the ATS bet more or less an Even Chance proposition -- except that if you win, you're paying a 10% vig. That's the part I don't get. Because if I'm going to place an Even Chance bet, why wouldn't I just make a Baccarat bet, where I pay 0% vig on a Player win, and just 5% vig on a Banker win, half the vig of an ATS win?

I also understand that lines are priced differently among different sportsbooks, and for guys that know what they are doing (not I), they could better handicap a spread that's more accurate than the bookmakers'.

Like I said, I know next to nothing about it. I'm just trying to learn from some of you guys who know what you're doing why you bet on ATS, when you could just get Baccarat. I would really like to learn how to Sportsbet. It can be a lot more exciting than Bacc, and watching sports is 100X more fun when you have money on it.

Thanks

 

Two main points -- I can't even begin to go into 90% of explaining anything, but I'll try two main points:

1) Sports betting is not a game of the probability of random events. It's a game of opinion. You should not apply the math of random events to non-random events.

2) Your line about the spread "makes the ATS bet more or less..." The problem with your conclusion is how you tried to slide by with the phrase "more or less," which isn't exactly exact. This line is incorrect from the start because the lines aren't designed to "make events Even Money," but to balance money on the events, which are NOT the same thing. Bookmakers make a profit from balancing money, not from finding the sweet spot of the reality see saw.

And finally, the bottom-line advice: Don't wager for the sake of "excitement" or because you're bored. Instead, go do something that's not boring.

 

Thanks for the reply. I knew after I said "Even Chance", I was going to deservedly get called out on the semantics. I know it's specifically designed to balance, or even out the stakes on either side of the proposition so the House doesn't take a bath.

Sounds like you're deadly serious about sports betting, unconcerned with any collateral enjoyment that may be coincidental to it. I can respect that. All business. Do you gamble on Baccarat then, with its low House edge?

Do you have an opinion on prop bets? For me anyway, I think I'd be better off becoming an expert on one type of prop bet rather than a Dunning-Kruger fool on the entire spectrum of sports.

 

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