Sports Betting I have sinned

I have a confession to make: I am a bad friend…

I'm not sure if anyone will benefit from this thread, or if it's just a place for me to share my strange random (but true) story. Either way, I suppose it will make me feel better, if nothing else, and serve as a testament to what I’ve experienced. If there’s any interest, I might also share some of my ideas over the years, later.

My gambling journey began several years ago with roulette when I came up with the idea of progressively betting on missing dozens. After a brief period of testing in demo accounts, I was convinced I had cracked the code, I felt like the smartest person in the world, certain that the casino was doomed.

But there was just one problem: I had no money. So, in a moment of desperation, I stole around $200 from my parents' account, an amount that was significant for us, fully believing I would double it and put it back before they noticed. You can probably guess how that ended. Pretty quickly...

I was in serious trouble because of that, and I still remember the sickening feeling in my stomach as I walked to the bakery to buy bread afterward. It was a beautiful spring day, you couldn’t ask for better weather, but for me, it felt like the darkest day of my life.

I had stolen money I couldn’t repay, and I had no way of secretly finding it and putting it back. At the same time, my dreams had been shattered. My brilliant idea of getting rich had crumbled before my eyes.
But in that moment of despair, I made a vow to myself: I would find a way to beat the game. I would figure out how to make a real income from gambling, no matter what. My eyes were filled with tears, but my determination was diamond hard. I will never forget that moment in my life.
I dove headfirst into learning, testing everything, breaking it down, and coming up with new ideas. I worked harder than almost anyone and picked things up fast, no doubt about it.
Years passed. Then more years. And in the end? Nothing. Nothing to show for all that effort, as you might expect.

But I’ll tell you this: I lost count of how many times I thought I had it all figured out. So many late nights, heart racing with excitement, convinced I’d finally cracked the code. And then, very next night, lying awake again, staring at the ceiling, realizing it was just another illusion slipping through my fingers.
Despite pouring my soul, all my free time and beyond, and every resource I had into this, I still couldn’t find a way to win. How cruel is that? If I had put the same effort into anything else, I could have built a business, mastered a craft, or become an expert in some high-paying profession. But instead? I had nothing. Oh dear life, how cruel is that?
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Meanwhile, alongside roulette, I also dove into sports betting, desperately searching for an edge. But it was the same story: failure after failure. I experimented with countless strategies, money management systems, and even brute-force progressions, but in the end, everything collapsed. I lost a lot of money, again.. I had to take out loans just to keep up, desperately trying to manage those losses.

I had accumulated an immense amount of knowledge about odds, probabilities, bankroll management, betting psychology, yet none of it gave me even the slightest advantage over the average, clueless bettor. That is a hard pill to swallow, isn’t it?

But then, out of the blue, one day, something radically changed...

Some time ago, while exploring yet another approach to sports betting, I stumbled upon something that caught my eye. It looked... different. Scanning through the sports results, I visually tested the idea (as it is that simple), and at first, I thought, "Hmm... this is actually quite interesting."
But that can’t be true… can it?

I closed my laptop and went to work, telling myself, "Don't you worry, boy. This is just another illusion. Another false hope. It’s nothing but a lucky streak, just like the million other times you thought you had something."

But I couldn’t stop glancing at the sport results. And no matter where I looked, number of wins vs loses kept looking very good. The next day. The day after. And the one after that. Then, when I ran the numbers to check the math, I saw something I had never seen before: a positive expectation.
Over hundreds and hundreds of picks, the worst losing streak I saw was around 5 at most. I was stunned. But I still refused to believe it. I kept telling myself, "Don’t you dare raise your hopes, lad. You’re nothing but a loser. This is probably just the longest winning streak of your life. It will end, and your miscalculation will show itself, it has to."

But still, something felt different this time…

And since we now live in the age of AI, I decided to put an end to my own misery once and for all. I went to a few different AI platforms and asked them to find the flaw in my math to see where had I gone wrong?

To my shock, AI confirmed my calculations. So I tried again. Three different AI engines. Same answer. Every time.

Of course, I kept checking the results daily, still waiting for the downfall, convinced there had to be something I was missing. But it never came.

It was incredible, it was unbelivelable, but still not enough to accept it, deep inside.

Now, I’m an incredibly private person when it comes to discussing my betting. There's really only one person I talk to about sports betting, my best friend from high school. I know he is not visiting roulette forums, but if he does, he will recognize this straight away lol Let me tell you a bit about this chap…

He played tennis himself and started betting on the sport in his teenage years. But here’s the thing: he was always betting on multiple picks. So, I sat him down and said, "Look, buddy, anyone serious about betting sticks to singles. Multiples are just going to make you lose more."

Fortunately, he listened to me, and not surprisingly, he quickly started winning, and winning a lot. And that’s how two of us started our journey about betting. He had an incredible knack for picking underdogs in lower-tier tennis competitions (ITF and Futures). His ability was so sharp that he quickly learned what being a successful sports bettor leads to: limitations and bans.

But for a good stretch of time, several years, he managed to outsmart the bookies. He opened accounts under his other friends’ names, changed IP addresses, and found ways around the restrictions. He earned enough to buy himself a pretty decent BMW, actually.

At one point, he also started selling his picks on Blogabet platform and had an impressive 23% yield over 2,000 picks. . I was there with him throughout his journey, and, honestly, I couldn’t help but feel jealous while I remained a total failure, betting on football or anything else.

To this day, he remains the best tipster I’ve ever seen. But eventually, he ran out of ways to keep going. The bookmakers figured him out instantly, even with a clean account. Now, he’s betting on football, trying to predict outcomes, and with the patience of a saint, somehow still managing to stay in the game, but with lukewarm results at best. Just barely keeping his head above water because he's using mild progressions. Truth to be told, he is no longer shadow of the force he once was as a sports bettor.

So, shortly after I came up with my idea, I texted him and said, "Hey buddy, can you help me test this idea of mine? The first results are impressive. I think I’ve created something big, but I know it can't be true. Let’s prove it wrong (probably) or, who knows, become rich from sports betting..."
I explained the math behind it, the logic that seemed so sound. He looked it over and said, "Well, yeah, it looks interesting at first. I’ll give you that."

I kept testing, and the more I looked, the more convinced I became that I was onto something. The results were just too good. No massive losing streaks anywhere. It was so good, in fact, that I started regretting ever telling him about it. I was terrified he might spill the beans. I wanted to keep it to myself. so badly that I wouldn't even share it with my own mother. I swear! With Nobody.
Two days later, he came back and said, "Look, buddy, your method doesn’t work. It is very dangerous, swings can be bad.

That hit me like a cold shower. I thought, "Okay, here it is. This is it. Finally, I can stop holding onto false hope. The world is back in order." And it hurts but I knew it was going to be like this, didn’t I?

So, he sends me the picks he played, and once again, it’s very late like 2 AM. I’m lying in bed, staring at the ceiling, completely sleepless, weighed down by the heaviest cramp of failure I’ve ever felt. Frustration gnawed at me, but I couldn’t help myself, I grabbed my phone and started checking. I didn’t have the exact odds he played, but I knew the teams well enough to estimate them. As I scanned the matches, something clicked. Wait a second… no way. This can’t be right. He must have made a mistake!

Something was off. There was no way his picks could have led to the disaster he claimed. And then, suddenly, it hit me, like a bolt of lightning. It wasn’t the method that had failed; it was the way he applied it! If he had followed it correctly, the method would have worked like a charm. But the method is so simple, a 5-year-old could do it. So simple that, for some reason, it completely went over his head…

So, this is where I’ve sinned. This is my chance to keep the method to myself, something I never saw coming again. Life is so interesting, isn’t it? I never corrected him or pointed out his mistake. He had knocked over the holy grail on a golden platter, and that had to be punished…

To this day, we still exchange picks and opinions almost daily, but I never reveal what I’m doing or share my approach and winnings. He’s, of course, still stumbling onto massive swings trying to predict who will win… swings that don’t exist in my world anymore. And I bang my head in disbelief every time, wondering how he’s not seeing the obvious, even with everything pointed out to him... he completely disregarded it. Life can be so peculiar...

I never speak to my colleagues at work about betting. Actually , to them, I’m someone who never bets, but I enjoy secretly listening to their complaints when they lose over this pick or that pick, with surprising results, results I would have so elegantly profited from….
So there you have it. A confession of mine, that’s on my chest for a while now. Thank you for taking the time to read. I do feel better after this..

Cheers

 

What was the point in telling this fairy tale ? You can't beat sports betting unless your are in the syndicate of Billy Walters or others who move the lines They only hit 55% but bet a lot of money to make money . You need to hit 53% in a 50-50 game to overcome the vig. No one can do it . Nice try !

 

The math you're referencing says a lot about how you view sports betting, which explains why you're stuck in thinking I am telling fairy tales—no offense. No serious bettor is touching that kind of vig, even if they can beat it. Pros aren’t grinding 53% just to break even or 55% for scraps—they’re hunting for better numbers, cutting juice, and playing markets where they actually have an edge.

Also, you’re only looking at traditional sportsbooks, which tells me you don’t really understand how sharp bettors operate. Betting exchanges and sharp books completely change the math. Instead of dealing with a fixed vig, you’re paying a commission on winnings—usually 2-5%. That’s a game-changer. At a sportsbook with -110 lines, you need 52.38% to break even. On an exchange like Betfair, Matchbook, or Betdaq, with a 2% commission, you only need around 50.5-51%. That’s a completely different world from blindly betting into full vig.

Then you have Pinnacle and BetInAsia for example, which cater to serious bettors with low margins and high limits. Unlike soft books that kick out winners, these platforms welcome sharp action. BetInAsia isn’t just one book—it’s a broker that gives access to multiple Asian sharp books and betting exchanges, all in one place. Their BetInAsia BLACK platform lets you bet with Pinnacle, Betfair, Singbet, and other top Asian books, all from a single account. This means you’re always getting the best odds available, maximizing value on every bet.

Compare that to traditional bookies, who will limit or ban you the moment you show any ability. Win just a few thousand, and suddenly your max bet is €5, or your account gets restricted. They aren’t in the business of letting anyone win long-term, they survive by catering to losing bettors who don’t even realize they’re playing a rigged game.

I’ll stop there because this is already beyond your level. No offense, but if you’re still talking about standard vig and 50-50 bets, you’re playing exactly how the books want you to—like a square.