Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Iran attacks exacerbate oil crisis: S&P 500 freezes ahead of key US data

Markets on Edge: Investors Brace for Sell-Off After US Strike on Iran
Financial markets are on alert this Monday as investors anticipate a sharp downturn following a US military strike on Iran over the weekend. The potential for retaliation and a surge in oil prices is weighing heavily on global sentiment.

Middle East Tensions Eclipse Economic Reports
The escalating crisis in the Middle East has overtaken the release of US economic data as the primary focus for investors. The unexpected move by President Donald Trump to back Israel's military campaign against Iran has heightened concerns over market volatility, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's next steps on interest rates.

S&P 500 Stalls Below Record Highs
The S&P 500 index, while rebounding from early April losses, remains approximately 2.7 percent below its February peak. Despite nearing the 5 percent threshold from its previous high over the past 27 trading sessions, it has yet to reach a new record.

Oil Prices Climb, Markets Hold Their Breath
The growing conflict between Israel and Iran has already driven oil prices higher. Though equities have remained relatively stable so far, market participants remain wary. A sustained rise in energy prices could fuel inflation and disrupt the Fed's expected path toward interest rate cuts.

Fed Holds Rates Steady, But Leaves the Door Open to Cuts
During its Wednesday meeting, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Policymakers signaled that borrowing costs could still decline later this year, though the expected pace of rate cuts is likely to be slower than projected in March. Officials pointed to anticipated inflationary pressure, potentially fueled by President Donald Trump's tariff plans, as a reason for the revised outlook.

A Data-Heavy Week Ahead for US Markets
Investors are bracing for a flood of key economic reports. Monday brings updates on US business activity and home sales. Consumer confidence figures are set for release on Tuesday, followed by Friday's PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

Consumers Cautious, But Sentiment May Be Rebounding
US consumer confidence has dipped in recent months amid fears that tariffs could push the economy toward recession and stoke inflation. However, with inflation remaining tame and the US-China trade conflict showing signs of de-escalation, market participants are hoping for a rebound in household sentiment.

European Stocks Struggle for Direction Amid Middle East Escalation
European markets opened the week with mixed performance, as rising geopolitical tensions weighed on investor mood. The joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend introduced fresh uncertainty into an already fragile global landscape.

Key European Indices:
STOXX 600: down 0.01 percent to 536.57 points;
Germany (DAX): down 0.1 percent;
France (CAC 40): down 0.1 percent;
Spain (IBEX): up 0.1 percent;
United Kingdom (FTSE): up 0.04 percent.
Deadline Nears: Trade Talks Falter as Tariff Expiry Looms
With the July 8 deadline to lift US tariffs approaching, negotiations with Washington appear to have stalled. Hopes for a breakthrough are fading, adding to market uncertainty.

Eurozone Growth Stalls Again in June
Economic momentum across the eurozone remained stagnant for the second consecutive month. According to a report released Monday, the service sector — typically the driving force of the region's economy — showed only modest improvement. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity registered no change at all.

UK Sees Modest Rebound in Business Activity
In contrast, the United Kingdom posted a slight uptick in business activity for June, offering a tentative sign that the domestic economy may be stabilizing.

Tech and Energy Lead Market Gains
Technology stocks led the advance across European markets, climbing 0.6 percent. The energy sector followed with a 0.3 percent gain, fueled by rising oil prices amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions following strikes on Iranian facilities.

Defense Sector Under Pressure
Shares in the European aerospace and defense industry declined by 0.9 percent, as investor sentiment shifted in light of escalating tensions and market volatility.

Corporate Headlines: Mergers, Divestitures, and Clinical Results
Spectris soared by 14.9 percent after private equity firm Advent announced its intention to acquire the scientific instruments manufacturer in a deal valued at 4.4 billion pounds;
Holcim gained 11.1 percent after the Swiss construction materials giant completed the spin-off of its North American division, Amrize, marking a key step in its restructuring strategy;
Novo Nordisk declined by 2.8 percent following the release of full results from late-stage clinical trials of its experimental weight-loss drug, CagriSema. Despite reaching this advanced phase, the market's reaction was tepid;
UCB advanced 4.4 percent after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Belgian biopharmaceutical company's rating from "equal weight" to "overweight," citing improved growth prospects

 

Iran-Israel peace hint rattles markets: What's happening to oil, gold and currencies

Global Markets Rally as Oil Tumbles Amid Middle East Tensions
Global equity markets ended Monday on a high note, shaking off concerns over growing tensions in the Middle East. Investors appeared unfazed by Iran's retaliatory strikes on US military facilities in Qatar, focusing instead on broader market momentum. Meanwhile, oil prices plummeted following recent highs not seen in months.

Iran's Strikes Seen as Controlled Move
Tehran's decision to launch airstrikes on American bases in Qatar sent ripples through geopolitical circles, but the market response was surprisingly calm. According to a senior regional source, Iran had informed the United States through diplomatic channels ahead of the attack — a move interpreted as a bid to de-escalate the situation rather than provoke further conflict.

Oil Slides Sharply After Reaching Recent Peaks
Oil benchmarks, which had recently surged to five-month highs, reversed direction sharply on Monday.

Brent crude dropped by 7.2% to close at 71.48 dollars per barrel, while WTI fell by the same margin to 68.51 dollars.

Index Performance Recap
Despite geopolitical uncertainty, Wall Street closed in the green:

Dow Jones: +0.89% to 42,581.78;
S&P 500: +0.96% to 6,025.17;
Nasdaq Composite: +0.94% to 19,630.98.
In Europe:

STOXX 600: -0.28%.
Across Asian markets:

MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan): -0.70%.
The broader MSCI World Index gained 0.49%, reflecting a more optimistic global investment climate.

Fed's Bowman Hints at Rate Cuts as Labor Market Risks Rise
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman suggested on Monday that the US central bank may be approaching a point where lowering interest rates becomes appropriate. Her growing concern about labor market vulnerabilities appears to be overtaking previous fears about persistent inflation driven by high import tariffs.

Her comments prompted a swift reaction in financial markets, especially among currency traders.

Mixed Signals on Currency Markets
Following Bowman's remarks, the US dollar posted mixed results. It rose slightly against the Japanese yen by 0.08 percent to reach 146.15 but declined by 0.68 percent versus the Swiss franc, settling at 0.81260. The euro recovered from earlier losses and gained 0.49 percent to reach 1.157675 dollars.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, slipped by 0.5 percent to 98.39.

Gold Prices Rebound After Early Losses
Precious metals saw upward momentum as well. Spot gold rose by 0.23 percent to 3375.71 dollars per ounce, while US gold futures advanced by 0.3 percent to 3395 dollars.

European Stocks Rally on Truce Announcement
Investor sentiment soared across European markets on Tuesday after former US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. The news was greeted with relief by traders, boosting appetite for risk across global exchanges.

The STOXX 600, a broad gauge of European equities, rose by 1.4 percent to 542.6 points. Germany's DAX index led the gains with an increase of nearly 2 percent.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that his government accepted the US-brokered ceasefire proposal.

Oil Drops to Two-Week Lows as Supply Fears Fade, Gold Retreats on Risk Appetite
Oil prices fell to their lowest levels in two weeks amid a noticeable decline in supply-related concerns. Meanwhile, investor appetite for riskier assets pushed gold prices down to nearly two-week lows, signaling a broader shift in market sentiment.

Market Split: Energy Slips While Travel Stocks Surge
Sectors responded differently to the shifting market dynamics. Energy shares declined by 3.5 percent, reflecting the weakness in oil prices. In contrast, travel and leisure stocks rallied, rising by 4.3 percent, supported by growing investor optimism about global economic resilience and consumer demand.

AstraZeneca Gains as Lung Cancer Drug Gets US Approval
Shares of UK-based pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca rose by 1.3 percent after the company, alongside its Japanese partner Daiichi Sankyo, received approval from US regulators for their precision lung cancer treatment, Datroway. The approval is seen as a significant milestone in the company's oncology pipelines.

Spotlight on Powell's Congressional Testimony
Investor attention is now focused on upcoming remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before the US Congress. His testimony is expected to provide crucial clues about the central bank's policy direction and could influence financial markets in the short term.

 

The main events by the morning: June 25

Russian oil has broken two records at once: a record high price and record low imports. The cost of a barrel of Urals crude oil last week exceeded $68, which was the highest since January. Now the price of Russian oil has dropped to $65-$65.23 per barrel. At the same time, shipments fell to a minimum in 2 months — 220 thousand barrels per day. During the week, this figure decreased by 4%.

The duty on wheat exports from Russia has been reduced 2.3 times since June 25. Now the duty rate is 248.3 rubles against 566 rubles per ton a week earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture said. The duty on barley will once again be zero, and on corn it will decrease to 358.1 rubles from 397.3 rubles per ton. The new rates will be valid until July 1.

Some American media outlets claim that the United States has failed to destroy Iran's nuclear program. CNN, citing U.S. intelligence, notes that the main components of the country's nuclear program have not been destroyed. The US attack most likely only set the nuclear program back a few months. Trump critically disagrees with the intelligence data and publicly defends the success of the attack on Iran.

China has become more interested in building the Power of Siberia-2 amid the conflict between Iran and Israel. It showed that oil supplies from the Middle East may not be so reliable, and China needs stable alternatives. However, the problem is that China is trying to promote not very favorable conditions for the Russian Federation and purchase gas at almost the same price at which it is sold on the Russian domestic market.

The UK will spend the proceeds from the Russian frozen assets on missiles for Ukraine. The country will supply 350 latest air defense missiles. The ammunition is planned to be used with the help of Raven systems previously supplied by the UK — five of them are still on their way to Ukraine.

 

US Market News Digest for June 26

Trump pushes S&P 500 toward record highs
Donald Trump is fueling gains in the S&P 500, driving the index toward all-time highs amid political stability and market optimism.

However, analysts warn that current elevated stock valuations may only prove sustainable with significant earnings growth. This puts pressure on companies to outperform expectations and justify current market levels.

US indices show mixed performance
US stock indices closed mixed: modest gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq offset losses in the Dow Jones. Markets remain sensitive to the Fed's rhetoric as rate-cut prospects weigh on the dollar and bond yields.

Amid the uncertainty, investors are rotating into rate-sensitive sectors.

Tech sector lifts market despite selective weakness
Investors maintain cautious optimism as technology stocks continue their steady advance, bolstering the Nasdaq.

Despite strong sector earnings, Tesla and FedEx shares face pressure following disappointing guidance. The broader uptrend persists, though single-stock volatility underscores lingering risks.

Nvidia tops global valuation rankings
Nvidia shares hit a record high, crowning the chipmaker as the world's most valuable company with $3.77 trillion market cap. While AI chip demand remains robust, analysts flag potential risks from export controls.

The stock's future performance may serve as a bellwether for broader tech sentiment.

Market on pause: profit-taking possible
The S&P 500 stalled near annual highs amid uncertain momentum and falling bond yields. Investor caution suggests potential profit-taking that could lead to a local correction.

Upcoming economic reports are expected to determine the next market direction.

Futures gain on macroeconomic optimism
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures advanced amid positive Iran negotiation developments and favorable macro data.

Investors are betting on further market gains despite lingering external risks. Stable corporate earnings and easing inflation expectations are boosting risk appetite.

 

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is drawing renewed selling interest today after breaking below the key $3300 level. Traders are awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is viewed as a crucial indicator for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. These figures are expected to significantly influence the short-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar and, by extension, the price of gold.

Despite some optimism around a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran and a broader risk-on sentiment diverting investors away from safe-haven assets, concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and prevailing bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar may help limit the downside for gold. Notably, data released yesterday showed that the U.S. economy contracted more than expected in the first quarter. This reinforces expectations of Fed rate cuts and keeps the dollar subdued near multi-year lows, indirectly supporting demand for gold as a defensive asset.

Earlier this week, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to delay interest rate cuts until it has better control over the inflationary impact of high tariffs. These remarks drew renewed criticism from President Donald Trump, who again called for lower rates and even hinted at the possibility of replacing Powell as early as September or October.

Such developments raise concerns about potential threats to the Fed's independence and may limit any positive reaction of the U.S. dollar to upcoming inflation data. As a result, gold prices are unlikely to experience a sharp and sustained decline.

From a technical perspective, today's intraday drop below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart could be viewed as a fresh trigger for sellers. Given that daily chart oscillators are gaining downside momentum, the precious metal could accelerate its decline toward the $3245 level, with further support seen at the horizontal level of $3210, the psychological $3200 mark, and potentially the $3175 level.

On the other hand, the $3324–3325 level is acting as immediate resistance, ahead of the $3350 level. Above that, further resistance lies near $3368–3370, which could limit additional gains. However, a sustained move above this range would allow XAU/USD to revisit the $3400 level. Continued buying interest beyond that point would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum in favor of the bulls.

 

The main events by the morning: June 30

Trump will appoint only a candidate willing to lower interest rates as the new head of the Federal Reserve System. He criticized the current chairman, Jerome Powell, calling him a «stubborn ass» and expressing hope for his resignation, although Powell's term expires in May 2026. Currently, the Fed is keeping the rate at 4.25-4.5%, but Trump insists on a significant reduction.

The United States lifted sanctions against Russia regarding the Paks-2 NPP project in Hungary. This was stated by the country's Foreign Minister Szijjarto. The construction of the station can be continued. Recall that in November 2024, the Biden administration imposed sanctions against Gazprombank, through which the project was financed.

Canada has made concessions to the United States in the trade war. The country will abolish the digital services tax against American companies ahead of an expected deal with the United States. Negotiations on the trade agreement are scheduled to resume by July 21.

All G7 countries are ready to make concessions to the Trump administration. They agreed on Saturday to exempt American companies from certain provisions of the existing global tax agreement. The G7 said the plan recognizes existing U.S. minimum tax laws and aims to increase the stability of the international tax system.

South Korea postponed the digital won pilot due to costs and lack of a commercialization plan. Instead, the Central Bank will focus on regulating stablecoins linked to won in order to reduce dependence on dollar tokens and preserve financial sovereignty. The eight largest banks are already working on the creation of such a stablecoin, and the issue will be controlled through licensed banks to protect the economy.

 

The main events by the morning: July 1

The United States has threatened Japan with higher tariffs if it does not restore its rice purchases. In 2024, Japan purchased rice from the United States for $298 million, but in the first four months of 2025 — only for $114 million. Donald Trump said that Tokyo refused to purchase rice despite the shortage in the country. At the same time, official comments from the Japanese government have not yet been received.

Shares of Tesla Inc declined significantly amid the escalation of the conflict between Trump and Elon Musk. Trump has publicly criticized Musk, saying he benefits excessively from government subsidies, and called for a review of federal support provided to Tesla. According to over-the-counter trading on the Robinhood platform, Tesla quotes decreased by 6.4% to the level of $297.35.

Canada has started exporting LNG – Shell Canada Energy has shipped its first LNG cargo from the LNG Canada project to Asia. The Kitimat plant is the first major North American LNG project with access to the Pacific Ocean. LNG Canada is a joint venture that includes several companies, and its capacity is 14 million tons per year. The project is considered the largest private investment in the Canadian economy, with a construction cost of about 40 billion Canadian dollars (approximately $29.4 billion).

Trump has signed a memorandum toughening American policy towards Cuba. The document establishes a ban on tourist trips by US citizens to the island, confirms support for the current economic embargo, and also provides for active opposition to attempts to lift it at international forums, including the United Nations. Cuba's foreign minister reacted sharply to the measures, calling Washington's actions «criminal behavior.»

 

The main events by the morning: July 2

The Iranian President has signed a decree suspending cooperation with the IAEA. According to the document, the agency's employees are temporarily banned from entering the country. The decision is justified by the need to ensure the safety of Iranian nuclear facilities and specialists in the field of nuclear energy. Thus, the control by the international agency has actually been suspended, which may pave the way for the unrestricted development of the Iranian nuclear program.

Germany and the UK are close to signing an extensive mutual assistance agreement. The text of the agreement is almost agreed upon, and the document can be signed before July 17. The treaty will confirm Berlin and London's commitment to the NATO alliance as the main pillar of their collective defense.

Google faced a fine of $314 million in connection with the illegal use of Android user data. Consumers claimed that Google programmed Android phones to transmit data to Google servers when users were not connected to a Wi-Fi network. The corporation used this information «to promote its corporate interests.»

Azerbaijan continues to ruin relations with Russia. The country suspended negotiations with the Russian Federation on a number of major economic agreements and officially accused Russia of torture and violation of international law. Russian-language schools are also being closed in Azerbaijan. It is reported that this decision is aimed at strengthening the position of the Azerbaijani language as the main language of education and integrating all citizens into a single educational environment.

Hong Kong claims to be the first in the world in terms of IPO volume. In 2025, Hong Kong may surpass New York in terms of initial public offerings. Since the beginning of the year, IPOs on the local stock exchange have raised HK$107 billion, an increase of 701%. Up to 100 placements worth up to $28 billion are expected by the end of the year. Geopolitics, the activation of Chinese companies, and the flow of capital from the United States have made Hong Kong a popular destination again.
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