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Gold inflows into global ETFs increased by $11.2 billion in April

In April, gold inflows into global ETF funds showed an impressive increase of $11.2 billion, equivalent to 115.3 tons, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC). Thus, the trend of increasing investments in gold has been maintained for the fifth month in a row.

Against the backdrop of rising prices for this precious metal and continued inflows of funds, the total assets under management (AUM) of global ETFs focused on gold reached a new historical peak by the end of the month, amounting to $379 billion. The total volume of assets in the funds increased to 3,561 tons, which was the highest value since August 2022.

Asia became the leader in terms of inflows in April, where 65% of the total net global volume was concentrated. At the same time, there was also significant interest in gold in North America, while flows turned negative in Europe. Other regions have shown positive but relatively modest dynamics in demand for this asset.
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Oil prices rise after the reduction of duties between China and the United States

On Tuesday afternoon, global oil prices resumed their growth after yesterday's decline. The price of Brent crude oil rose to $65.90 per barrel, WTI – to $63.

At the beginning of the week, China and the United States agreed to reduce mutual trade duties for 90 days – from May 14, the tariff on American goods in China will be 10%, and the United States will maintain duties on Chinese products at 30% with an additional «fentanyl» rate of 20%.

Investors' attention is also focused on events in the Middle East. Washington recently imposed new sanctions against Iran amid indirect negotiations on a nuclear deal. At the same time, US President Donald Trump arrived in Saudi Arabia as part of his visit to the Persian Gulf countries.

The market is waiting for new signals that could set the vector for further trading. So, on Tuesday, statistics on inflation in the United States will be published, which can affect the dollar exchange rate and the cost of oil. On Wednesday, OPEC will present its next monthly market report, and the US Department of Energy will provide fresh data on oil reserves. The IEA report is expected on Thursday.

 

Sweden invites the EU to join the largest free trade area

At a meeting of EU foreign ministers on May 15, Sweden plans to invite the association to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) agreement, which unites more than a dozen Pacific Rim countries.

Swedish Foreign Trade Minister Benjamin Dusa noted that this would create the largest free trade area in the world, strengthening the economic positions of the parties in the face of challenges such as US tariffs.

CPTPP was founded in 2018 after the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2017. It includes Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. At the end of 2024, the United Kingdom joined the agreement, and China expressed its intention to join.

Sweden considers this partnership to be strategically important, as it opens up new markets for exporters, which is critical for financing social services. However, not all EU countries will support this initiative. France, which has traditionally taken a protectionist position, especially in the agricultural sector, may be among the opponents. Earlier, Paris actively resisted the conclusion of an EU trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc.

 

Shares of tech giants are falling, led by Nvidia and Tesla

Major representatives of the technology sector, including Tesla and Nvidia, led the decline in the shares of the so-called «Magnificent Seven» during pre-market trading in the United States on Monday.

The reason for the downward trend was the desire of investors to lock in profits after the recent rally in shares of leading technology companies. Additional pressure on the market was exerted by the downgrade of the US credit rating announced by Moody's, which worsened the general mood of the bidders.

The decline in quotations affected almost all key companies. Tesla shares sank by 4.7%, Nvidia — by 3%, Meta — by 2.1%, Amazon — by 2%, Alphabet — by 2%, Apple — by 1.8%, and Microsoft — by 1.2%.

Nevertheless, despite the correction, last week the equally weighted index of these stocks showed an increase of 9.3% — the maximum weekly increase since the beginning of 2023. The main driver of growth was the announcements of new AI deals made during former President Donald Trump's visit to the Middle East. Also, a significant contribution was made by the presentation of the Nvidia CEO, during which the latest developments of the company aimed at strengthening its leading position in the AI chip market were presented.

 

The ECB Will Face Increasing Challenges

The euro is rising ahead of a significant event. The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates this Thursday before increasingly complex inflation prospects risk bringing internal disagreements to the forefront.

As price risks have diminished, officials have cut rates seven times over the past year without major friction within the 26-member Governing Council. An eighth cut is expected on Thursday, bringing the deposit rate to 2%.

However, while some would prefer this to be the bottom — fearing overspending by European governments — others want deeper cuts to support fragile economic growth in their countries.

The main sticking point is Donald Trump's tariffs, particularly their chain reaction effect on eurozone prices. The ECB is working on various scenarios to better understand what may come next, but there is little confidence in any specific outcome.

As a result, the ECB is transitioning from fighting elevated inflation to a phase characterized by unpredictability, similar to what was seen during the Covid period. A similar situation is now unfolding within the U.S. Federal Reserve. This means central banks must be prepared for inflation risks in both directions.

It is quite possible that the macroeconomic outlook justifies short-term cuts to support the economy during this period of uncertainty, but higher rates may be necessary later if other policy levers, such as fiscal measures, come into play. At the same time, it will be important for the ECB to remain vigilant against the risk of a return to too-low inflation.

With prices returning to the 2% target, investors still believe there will be another rate cut after this week, but they are uncertain when exactly it will occur. Economists in a recent survey were more confident, predicting cuts in June and September, bringing the final rate to 1.75%.

However, as noted earlier, Trump's actions could alter these expectations. Although most EU goods are currently subject to a 10% U.S. tariff, this could rise to 50% in July. The ECB's scenario analysis, expected to be presented in the quarterly forecast, highlights this uncertainty.

The evolution of prices will depend on potential retaliatory measures from Brussels and how U.S.-China relations unfold. In the long term, European spending on defense and infrastructure, disrupted supply chains, and an aging workforce could fuel inflationary pressures.

Against this backdrop, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned against further easing, stating that the ECB is well-positioned to assess the likely future evolution of the economy and act as needed. Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel also warned that the medium-term inflation outlook remains unclear.

But one thing is already certain: from now on, each additional cut will be much more difficult. Resistance will grow, and everything will depend on the data. This will lead to complicated discussions after the summer.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD:

Buyers now need to aim to capture the 1.1420 level. Only this will allow a test of 1.1460. From there, a move to 1.1490 is possible, but achieving it without the support of major players will be challenging. The furthest target is the 1.1520 high. If the pair declines, serious buyer activity is only expected around 1.1400. If no buyers are found there, it would be better to wait for a dip to 1.1380 or open long positions from 1.1347.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD:

Pound buyers need to target the nearest resistance at 1.3555. Only then can they aim for 1.3602, above which a breakout will be difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3640 level. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control at 1.3505. A break of this range would seriously damage the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down toward 1.3480, with a prospect of reaching 1.3450.

 

Threats to cryptocurrencies: quantum computers have reduced the time needed to crack RSA

Google has presented a study stating that its team working on quantum computing has discovered that cracking RSA encryption, used to protect data such as bank accounts and bitcoin wallets, will require significantly fewer quantum resources than previously thought – about 20 times.

In 2019, Google's Craig Gidney and his colleagues demonstrated that Shor's algorithm can handle the destruction of standard-length RSA keys (2048 bits) in 8 hours using a quantum computer with a capacity of 20 million qubits. However, recent calculations show that a quantum computer with less than 1 million noisy qubits will be able to crack RSA encryption in less than a week.

Despite this, such technology is not yet close to real-world application. For example, IBM's most powerful quantum computer, Condor, currently has only 1,121 qubits. As noted by Emerge, such studies suggest that owners of cryptocurrencies should pay attention to the pace of development of quantum computing and their possible consequences.

 

US Market News Digest for June 5

US indices range-bound as investors await jobs data
Major US stock indices ended the trading session with minimal changes: the S&P 500 edged up 0.01%, the Nasdaq gained 0.32%, while the Dow Jones slipped 0.22%. Market participants adopted a cautious stance ahead of the release of US jobs data.

Low activity and narrow index fluctuations reflect investor prudence, with labor market statistics seen as a key metric for assessing the Federal Reserve's next policy moves.

Optimism builds on expectations of Fed easing
US equity markets posted a third consecutive day of gains, buoyed by hopes of a potential shift toward a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Barclays upgraded its 2025 forecast for the S&P 500, citing reduced tariff-related risks.

Still, analysts warn that the growing optimism may be premature. A lack of confirming macroeconomic data could swiftly alter market sentiment.

Mixed dynamics: services sector weakness worries investors
US stock indices delivered mixed results: the Dow Jones slipped 0.22%, the S&P 500 closed virtually flat (+0.01%), and the Nasdaq rose 0.32%. Against this backdrop, investors turned their focus to data from the services sector.

May marked the first monthly decline in business activity in this segment in nearly a year, raising concerns about the resilience of economic growth in the months ahead.

Market slows ahead of key economic data
Signs of a slowdown are emerging across US markets as investor activity tapers off amid anticipation of upcoming employment figures and weakness in the services sector. Indices are losing momentum, while economic uncertainty is fueling apprehension.

The contraction in services and signs of investor fatigue cast doubt on the sustainability of the rally, especially as corporate earnings soften and macroeconomic indicators remain volatile.

 

Is the Euro becoming a global currency?

Recent comments on currency positions have intensified the discussion about the possibility of the euro becoming a global monetary base. This is due to the growing optimism towards this currency and the negativity towards the US dollar.

Analysts identify several conditions for a global currency. The euro, like the US dollar and the yen, meets the requirements for convertibility without capital controls, but does not meet other criteria such as the current account deficit required to secure foreign capital. In addition, the US dollar has a «deep and liquid asset pool,» while the euro does not create a fully integrated capital market.

Analysts point out that settlement systems such as SWIFT and CHIPS support the dollar's hegemony. Despite the problems of the United States with domestic institutions, they still show strong growth and liquidity indicators.

Although the euro does not meet all the requirements, its importance is growing. The dollar accounts for 58% of foreign exchange reserves, the euro – 20%. The dollar is also involved in 50% of transactions via SWIFT, while the euro is involved in 22%.

Experts note that there is no prospect of replacing the dollar in the near future, but even small changes in its share can significantly affect the valuation of various assets.

 

Oil continues to rise in price

Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday morning. On the London ICE Futures exchange, the price of August Brent futures reached $67.38 per barrel.

WTI futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange also rose to $65.44 per barrel after rising 1.1% the day before. Brent ended trading at its highest level since the end of April, and WTI – since the beginning of the month before last.

The main support for the market is provided by the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and China in London. Market participants hope for a successful deal, which can improve global economic growth and fuel demand.

Negotiations will continue today. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described them as «fruitful.» Analysts suggest that the market has already taken into account some successes in the negotiations, and prices are likely to remain stable until the results are announced.

The depreciation of the dollar also supported oil prices: the DXY index fell 0.3%, which made commodities more attractive to holders of other currencies.

 

Bitcoin is approaching an all-time high again

Bitcoin showed a sharp rise on Tuesday as investors reacted positively to the progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. At the same time, there is still caution in the market ahead of the publication of US inflation data later this week.

The cryptocurrency rose by 1.9%, reaching $110 257. It has been trading in a narrow range in recent sessions, but hopes for a trade deal between the world's largest economies have boosted risk appetite.

Bitcoin reached a record of $112,000 last month due to optimism about legislative support and institutional adoption, but concerns about trade tensions led to a pullback.

The talks between senior U.S. officials and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in London concern tariff reductions and export controls and are continuing for the second day. A positive outcome can improve geopolitical stability and increase interest in alternative assets.

 

Trump earned over $600 million in 2024

Donald Trump has reported revenue of over $600 million generated from various businesses, including cryptocurrency, golf clubs, and licensing deals. The financial statements, signed on June 13, disclose data for the period up to the end of 2024. This period does not take into account a significant portion of the profits from the family's cryptocurrency projects, which started in early 2025.

The $TRUMP meme coin brought in about $320 million in commissions, but the distribution of this amount between Trump's structures and his partners remains unknown. In addition, the family earned more than $400 million through World Liberty Financial, a company in the field of decentralized finance. Of this amount, $57.35 million was received from the sale of tokens, while Trump owns 15.75 billion management tokens.

According to the report, Trump's assets are estimated at at least $1.6 billion. The successful expansion into the cryptocurrency sector has strengthened its fortunes by adding significant revenue from commissions and new initiatives.

 

EU energy sanctions: division and growing dependence

Without Washington's support, it will be difficult for the EU to monitor the implementation of sanctions against Russian energy resources and convince its member states of their necessity. At the G7 meeting, Donald Trump said he had no plans to approve new sanctions against Russia, noting that Europe was still discussing the issue but was not taking action.

Despite the restrictions imposed by the EU to reduce Russia's export revenues, their implementation faces obstacles. Hungary and Slovakia have vetoed the European Commission's plan to phase out Russian energy. The Hungarian Foreign minister said that this struggle would be a long one, accusing Brussels of yielding to Kiev. He stressed that Hungary provides more than 40% of Ukrainian electricity imports, but is not sure about continuing if it loses Russian resources.

Moscow, in turn, argues that the West's abandonment of hydrocarbons was a mistake, increasing its dependence due to high prices. At the same time, according to Russia, European countries continue to purchase its oil and gas through intermediaries, overpaying for resources.
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The pound is ready to grow amid the weakening of the dollar due to US policy

Donald Trump, with his aggressive trade policy, can compensate for the weakening of the British pound caused by Brexit. This could bring sterling back to the levels before the UK left the EU, experts say.

Analysts note that the loss of the dollar's «exclusivity» status due to the unpredictable tariffs of the White House is putting pressure on the US currency. If the dollar weakens, the pound will become one of the main beneficiaries.

After the Brexit decision in 2016, the pound fell sharply against the dollar as investors questioned the stability of the UK as a safe haven for assets. However, Trump's trade policy has changed this balance, threatening the established global economic order.

If the United States faces the loss of its «privileged haven» status, as happened with Britain, it will cause a structural weakening of the dollar. In this case, the pound/dollar pair may return to the range of $1.50-$1.80, typical of the pre-Brexit level.

 

Oil prices fell by more than 5% against the background of the agreement between Israel and Iran

Oil prices increased their decline on Tuesday, with Brent crude dropping below $68 per barrel for the first time in two weeks. August Brent futures on the London ICE Futures Exchange fell 5.2% to $67.76 per barrel. At the same time, WTI futures fell 5.18% to $64.96 per barrel.

During morning trading, Brent recorded a minimum of $ 67.50, and WTI — $64.79 per barrel.

The reason for the decline in quotes was the news from Washington: earlier, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had reached a full ceasefire agreement. Later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed his country's readiness to end the military conflict.

Investors see this as an important signal for the stabilization of the situation in the region, which reduces the risks of disruptions in oil supplies from the Middle East. The day before, on Monday, prices fell by more than 7% in response to Tehran's strike on the American base in Qatar — it was perceived by the market as a symbolic reaction of Iran to the US attack on its nuclear facilities.

 

The rise in gold prices is related to the fiscal problems of the United States

Investors are less willing to buy US government bonds under the same conditions, which leads to an increase in the profitability of these securities and contributes to the appreciation of gold. Analysts at the World Gold Council (WGC) came to this conclusion, pointing out that concerns about the growing US government debt are increasing demand for the precious metal.

Market participants are becoming increasingly sensitive to the price of U.S. Treasury bonds, which leads to higher yields and strengthens gold's position as a relatively stable asset. Since the beginning of the year, its price has increased by 26.3%.

«Investors are concerned about the sustainability of the US debt, which now stands at $36.2 trillion, and in such conditions they are increasingly turning to gold. This trend is likely to continue, as the bond market will remain sensitive to the risks associated with America's public debt and fiscal problems,» the WGC notes.

According to analysts, in the context of declining demand for Treasury securities from the Fed and foreign government institutions, foreign private investors are beginning to play a key role — the most price-sensitive of this instrument. Although the likelihood of a major crisis remains low, the organization does not rule out a series of small shocks in the event of increased tensions over the ability of the United States to service its national debt. This instability, in turn, will continue to support gold prices in the near future.