Craps A lecture demonstration on the unworkable theory of Dice Influence

Mark

Hopefully your example will not fall on deaf ears.

But unfortunately dice control/influencing attracts many gamblers who want to believe there is some unexplored secret to craps riches.

DI players are primarily driven by the attitude if you practice long and hard enough … you’ll become proficient. However the evidence is overwhelming … dice control/influencing is more of a random event.

 

"Next time you belly up to a craps game ..." and want to try your hand at Dice control/influence understand what you're up against.

Click here: Betting On Physics: Researchers Use Math To Predict Dice Rolls

 

Many Dice Control or Dice Influence believers are often unpleasant and irrational people who will not listen to any reason or logic. I have ran in to quite a number of them all over the North West, Reno and Las Vegas. They are a pain for the table crew to deal with as they constantly short throw, and a pain for us players to deal with because they slow up the game and then there is the 'No throw' and having the dice taken away from them that causes an emotional outburst out of them.

 

more of a random event than what?

 

Predictable !


Article Quote:

"Theoretically the die throw is predictable, but the accuracy required for determining the initial position is so high that practically it approximates a random process," Kapitaniak said in a statement Wednesday. However, "only a good magician can throw the die in the way to obtain the desired result."


Article:

Betting On Physics: Researchers Use Math To Predict Dice Rolls

BY ROXANNE PALMER @RPALMERSCIENCE ON 09/12/12 AT 4:27 PM
(See thread #3)

 

is there any level of predictability a person could expect , with practice ?

 

Depending on one’s point of view …. there are pros and cons of whether practice equates to improvement/success or is the game always random.

Practice does improve your ability to “BLANKET ROLL” a toss. But the big question is whether you can truly influence the dice on a crap table.

In measuring ability many players use a "Sevens to Rolls Ratio" (SRR) guide to define their ability. This is a measurable mathematical guide to indicate some probability for success or failure.

Also there are On-Axis and Off-Axis believers that use an algorithm to determine influence.

Even with some ability …. CONSISTENCY is the big issue, because the crap tables are designed to randomize the dice, and overcoming these hurdles are monumental, if-not- impossible.

Out of the many players I’ve known or played with … 90 % have thrown in the towel. The effort of practice and dedication was not worth the rewards.

So to answer your question … I would have to guess, one could expect an average of a 1 or 2% Predictability rate with practice … and Chance being around 98-99%.

 

but in most endeavors such as sports where less than 2% in any given year will make it to the pros
in business 2% make the bulk of the money
would you not equate success in craps to be directly related to skill and practice to some degree??

 

I would agree that practice is a great learning tool, and there is much to be learned from the experience.

Although your 2% analogy is mixing apples with oranges, and perhaps my (guess) explanation of the 1-2 % expectation was not clear.

Let me take a different approach:

Out of 100 rolls I would expect that a shooter would be able to hit 1 or 2 primary faces (expectation) with 98-99% of the other rolls being random.

So depending on your betting strategy and the variance of the game you may show a profit. However, for the most part you are playing a theoretical random game.

Like the article I mentioned earlier in this thread… the dice toss may be predictable but highly unlikely.

 

the reference I was making deals with what percentage of the people undertaking to learn dice influence
in almost any endeavor the success ratios run pretty standard since success is based upon the investment of time , effort and energy
attributes which many find difficult to expend
my other point was aimed at the fact that many people expect to start throwing dice and practicing in the hopes of learninf
the reality is people cannot practice anything they don't know how to do