Forex Forex News by ForexMart

Bank of Canada to Maintain 0.5 Percent Benchmark Rate


The Canadian central bank will release on Wednesday the economic outlook of the country, however, the decision to kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent remain indecisive.


According to a combined forecast of 22 experts surveyed by Bloomberg News, they expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) would maintain its 0.5 percentage rate.


The latest adjustment made by the BoC was during mid-2015 with a 0.25 percentage point spearheaded by the decline in commodity costs.


The focus turned to the up-to-date report of Monetary Policy which is published quarterly which provide a breakdown of the predicted economic performance of Canada. While figures suggest a stable condition for the region considering the favorable January Gross Domestic Product which is the most recent monthly GDP available. The stat showed that there is a possible four percent growth within this year.


The semi-annual assessment further projected that the country will rose by 2.1 percent amid 2017-18.


Economists had guesstimate whether the financial institution will reach that point. Alongside the strong GDP, the employment growth has seen to strive gathering some steam.

 

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New Zealand Inflation Came in Strong in the First Quarter


The inflation rate of New Zealand soared unexpectedly as much as 2.2 percent in the first quarter which is the top-level over five years. Yet, the central is still committed keeping the interest rates low. Hence, the consumer price index (CPI) hovered in the middle range of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) within the 1 to 3 percent target range which they have attempted to lift higher for more than a year. The CPI ascended to 1 percent in the first quarter exceeding the expected 0.8 percent which also transposes the annual growth of 2 percent by analysts.



This hike in inflation was influenced by short-term gains because of high oil and food prices, a tax hike on alcohol and tobacco and the increasing costs of housing construction. The inflation is ascending although at a sluggish pace which keeps the RBNZ heedful according to the senior economist of the Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) bank.

 

March and June Fed Rate Hikes Possible, According to Economists


Several economists are speculating that the US Federal Reserve could possibly be in for two more rate hikes this coming March and June, with the central bank possibly increasing its short-term rates within the week and another rate increase during the Fed’s meeting this coming June. Fed officials have maintained their current rates after they increased their federal funds rate last December 2016. The central bank had already penciled in a total of three possible hikes for this year but refused to indicate the exact date of the implementation of these said rate hikes.

 

The current Money Fall contest has already started on April 24, 2017 and will end on April 28, 2017.


You can register for the next competition which will take place from May 1, 2017 to May 5, 2017


Note:

Registration for the next competition finishes 1 hour before the contest starts.

 

China’s Bullish GDP Growth Stabilizes Yuan


The first quarter data of China has come out after a solid positive gain causing a slowdown in capital outflows to stabilize the currency following a selloff last year. They are optimistic to attain the 6.5 percent GDP growth for this year as mentioned by the Finance minister Xiao Jie. This is a good signal indicating the strengthening of yuan and capital flows are gaining back by the country.


The interest rates are moving in an upward direction despite tighter policies to curb the fast growth of credit hampering the economic progress. Yet, economic growth advanced faster-than-expected 6.9 percent in the first quarter, weakening capital outflows and more stable cross-border flows have strengthened yuan substantially. This has then eased the pressure regards to Foreign exchange reserves as it retreated with the surge of the greenback.


However, further tightening cannot be ruled out as it may change again abruptly especially when the currency come again under pressure with the global appreciation of the U.S. dollar.

 

Asian Stocks Abated Due to High Risks


The appeal of Asian stocks to investors has subsided because of political and economic risks that overshadowed continuous returns over the past 26 years. Asian business has been good in the second half last year up to early this year and is the impetus is slowing down soon.


This put the Asian equities for a sell-off as investors have become cautious compared a few months ago. Moreover, political elections in Europe and profit taking in the U.S. bring in corrections that are not good. Another concern is the decline in cyclical upswings in China and the United States which has a big effect on global trading including equities of Emerging market.


Nevertheless, investors do not totally leave despite the high costs of stocks compare to other emerging markets but are still lesser cost than developed markets. The analysts forecasted earnings to rise by 17% this year.

 

March New Home Sales Surge by 5.8%


The new home sales data reading for March saw a drastic increase, clocking in at a 5.8% surge, an indication that the demand for new homes are now gaining momentum as the peak selling season commences. The March reading for new home sales data is the highest level since July 2016, wherein home sales data peaked its highest within a 9-year period. Economists are now anticipating that new home sales could possibly continue climbing up within the year as more buyers are now returning to the marketplace for starter homes.

 

NAFTA Dangers Sends MXN Plunging


The Mexican Peso (MXN) is now about to record its lowest drop within a five-month period following reports that the Trump administration is planning to pull itself out from the NAFTA agreement. There are now reports that the White House is currently drafting an EO which will enable the said withdrawal and could be released either within the week or next week. This caused the Mexican Peso to crash by 2% against the USD, the currency’s largest daily drop since its previous drop against the CAD last November. A weak MXN could spell bad news for the US economy, since this will mean that Mexican exports will be more affordable as compared to US exports.

 

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RBA Maintained Current Rates Amid Wage Risks


The Reserve bank of Australia kept their rates unchanged for nine succeeding months on Tuesday which is not surprising following the risks of household debt, meek progress in inflation and wage. The RBA decided to maintained the rates at a rock-bottom of 1.5 percent after the decline in August and May last year while most economists have foreseen that will be sustained this week.


The central bank is sanguine in the economy but maintains a mixed labor market. Although the wages growth anticipated being sluggish for some time. The price inflation lingers above 2 percent in the previous quarter for the first since 2015 although the objective of the RBA is to keep inflation rates below 2 to 3 percent but higher than 3 percent in the next few years.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe mentioned that there is no need for further stimulus since the low cash rates have affected household debt which will not be favorable for the “national interest”.

 

U.S Economy Probably Expand by 3% in Two Years, Says Mnuchin


According to Steven Mnuchin, U.S Treasury Secretary, the economic growth of the United States could possibly grow by 3 percent in two years upon implementing the restoration of the regulatory reform and tax system and offering better trade agreements.


The job market of U.S revived gaining 12 percent increase in the prices of stock considering the fact that the election of Trump coupled with the consumer sentiment reached the highest peak in 16 years have painted a positive illustration of the economy.


In spite of that, the economy improved on its weakest pace within three years acquiring 0.7 percent in Q1 as it highlighted the dispute that the government dealt with as it aims to attain an annual growth higher than 3 percent.


Moreover, the administration of Trump had established the overhauling of the tax rate system labeled as the largest revision in history, since this is on the top list of their legislative program.


The plan was already published previously, it further contains the proposal for trimmed taxes intended for the citizen and businesses, creating comprehensive filer system and prohibiting the rich from loopholes. The package is expected to be signed and put into law within the current year.


On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund have given its forecast that the world's largest national economy will bolster hitting 2.3 percent in 2017 while 2.5 percent for next year.

 

Stronger Indian Rupee Provided Positive Impact to Masala Bonds


The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthened against the American dollar, while the masala bonds could take advantage with Indian firms who are looking to increase funds.


The masala bonds had a considerable growth even the latest fiscal together with the ICRA projected that the trend will persist particularly for firms without any natural hedge that could reduce risk from foreign currencies engaged in the external commercial borrowings (ECBs).


During the 2017 fiscal year, the rupee-linked bonds hold at t Rs 30,620 crore by which other country’s currency dropped to Rs 1,740 crore compared with the previous FY with Rs 2,440 crore.


According to Karthik Srinivasan, Senior VP of ICRA said: “With their cash flows denominated in Indian Rupees, many of the borrowers of ECBs don’t have a natural hedge against foreign currency risks inherent in that instrument."


Moreover, the national currency of India rose by more than 5% versus its U.S peer, this caused for theIR to be the top performer among its rivals.


The commercial banking company further anticipates an aggregate FII debt inflows worth $5-10 billion inclusive of RDBs amid FY18.

 

As Unemployment Rate Drops, US Economy on its Way to Recovery


The US Labor Department has released its US job report for April, wherein it indicated that business had topped up a total of 211,000 jobs last month, a far cry from March’s reading of only 79,000 jobs. This upward trend in hires has confirmed market projections that the country’s overall economic growth is well on its way towards a significant recovery. Economists are now saying that this evidently very strong economic data for the country signals that consumers might soon have the power to amplify their spending habits during the second quarter of 2017.

 

Oil Cut Production May Extend Beyond 2017, Says Minister of Saudi


Khalid Al-Falih, oil minister of Saudi Arabia showed confidence with regards to the deal to limit output for crude oil and the oversupply reduction is going to be extended within 6 months or more.


Al-Falih further discussed during the Asia Oil and Gas Conference held in Kuala Lumpur last Monday that the growth of U.S shale production together with the closure of refinery maintenance have lessened the effect of cutback led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries along its associates. Moreover, manufacturers are driven enough to achieve their target to drop in their bloated gasoline supplies. Nevertheless, he believes the world oil supply could still realign and revive its former healthy state.


The increasing U.S production place worries towards OPEC and its allies as it fails to minimize the market glut and expansion of prices.


The gains of oil were erased since the agreement made in the previous year to curb output. The OPEC meeting held in Vienna attended by various nations further supported the 6-month deal for the extension which will start in January. It would be the first time that the minister of Saudi to propose the extension beyond 2017.

 

Euro Fell Against the Dollar in the Post-French Election


The common European currency tumbled on Monday from its highs due to the triumph of centrist wing Emmanuel Macron. As investor received an estimate of 3% of profit after Macron won a couple of weeks ago.


The loss of the populist candidate, Marine Le Pen ended the worries of investors about the radical change subsequent to Brexit and Trump’s election last year in case that Le Pen won.

Based on opinion polls, Macron had a consistent point which is roughly 20 percent and his triumph on Sunday was a great surprise.


During the early trades of Asia, the euro surge reaching $1.1024 which is its highest rate since November 9. It further increased on its one-year high touching 124.58 yen versus its Japanese peer while hitting a five-month high jumping to 1.0886 against the Swiss franc.

However, amid morning session of Europe, it declined by 0.4 percent to $1.0953 vs the greens and 0.6 percent to 123.26 against the yen.


The political risk linked with Le Pen were already removed, the risk involves the pledge that France will be taken out from the European region. As the risk was eliminated, the focus turned to the economic fundamentals along with the monetary policy normalization of EU and U.S.