Forex Forex News by ForexMart

Demonetisation Slowed Down Indian Economy


The International Monetary Fund issued a regional forecast for India this month and predicted that the South Asian country will slow down because of the cash crunch bring about by the demonetization despite the fact that its economic growth would likely remain strong within the Asia Pacific region compared with the previous outlook in October.


According to the report of National Accounts Statistics, the economic impact of the cash insufficiency may be downplayed in the least short term.


In addition to it, an analysis made by the staff of IMF states that the projections in October 2016, the negative cash flow seems slow amid the financial year 2016-17 nearly four to five percentage points. While the growth in FY 2017-18 was almost half of its percent point.

 

High Demand for Bitcoin Hit a Record High $1,760


The Bitcoin attained a record high on Tuesday because of an upsurge demand for crypto-assets and the production of new tokens to increase stake for new establishment through blockchain technology which implies the dispensability of a central regulator.


The digital currency rose on the day by 6 percent reaching $1,760.40 from $1,747.89 on the BTC=BTSP BitStamp platform. Currently, it surged to almost 80% percent for the year and a significant expansion of market capitalization up to $52.5 billion, reported by coinmarketcap.com.


However, Federal Reserve of Minneapolis Bank President Neel Kashkari is not convinced of a positive bitcoin probable future, saying that the blockchain technology will progress more in the future compared to the digital currency. Also, considering the shift in the market interest where majority of the bitcoin rallied was influenced because of high demand for the initial coin offerings (ICOs).

 

FBI Chief Comey Sacked by Trump


President Trump has fired FBI Director James Comey yesterday in a sudden turn of events in the White House, causing a sudden onslaught of calls for a special prosecutor to take control of the ongoing investigation of the body into Trump’s possible relationships with Russia, particularly during his campaign. This sudden development would most likely lead to a long-term falling out and could cause uncertainties with regards to the fate of the Russian investigations. Prior to Comey’s relieving of his position, the FBI has been involved in the investigation of Trump’s ties with Russia, particularly on whether the Russian government had influenced the presidential elections last year. The Russian government has denied any connections with the current administration.

 

India’s Consumer Price Inflation Abates this April


Inflation rate of India narrowed down because of lower food cost for the month of April. However, this would make it tough to ease rates in the near future. Consumer price inflation is anticipated to persist lower than the 4.0 percent medium target of the Reserve bank of India for the past six months.


It is forecasted from a survey of economist that inflation in April will decline to a three-month low of 3.40 percent this month compared to the 3.81 in March. Yet, the central bank raised its inflation rate for the fiscal 2017 to 2018 to attain 4.5 percent for the first half and 5.0 the second half of the year. An economist described the situation that even if the interest rate cut exceeded the 4 percent level in the next few months, the RBI will be cautious and would not cut rates since the current situation is stable already.

 

Ireland’s Household Debt Has Fallen but Remains Fourth in the Most Indebted Nation in EU


The household debt of Ireland had collapsed for more than 20 times which appeared to be much apace than Europe in 2016, underlining the amount of Ireland’s recovery from the debt-induced financial crisis.


Based on the statistics showed by the Irish Central Bank, Sweden ousts the Irish island on the ranking of the most indebted nation in EU as the Swedish region have low-interest rates which gave rise to concerns about the overheating in the housing market of the country.


The household credit serves as the disposable income percentage further weakened by 10.2 percent point in the previous year, reaching 140.9 percent versus the 0.5 pp overall downturn in the European Union.


The bank also mentioned that the contraction has weighed on the reduction in debt and improvement in the household incomes. The indebtedness has declined by 52.9 percentage point as the year 2012 ends versus with the decreased in the broader EU by 3.3 percent.


Moreover, the Irish government was compelled to agree with the Europe and IMF program for economic stabilization in 2010 as the property bubble suddenly broke causing the string of banks to fall down. Despite the strong rebound, the economy remains to become one of the rapid-growing states in EU.

 

Thailand’s Strong First Quarter GDP growth


The export data of Thailand for first quarter moved at its most rapid “quarterly pace” in the past four years and eases the monetary policy to support low key investment activities. Although it faces uncertainties with capital outflow and global trading protectionism, the U.S. Fed is taking signifying that it is gaining momentum to recovery.


The agency reduced its monetary projection from 3.0 - 4.0 percentage to 3.3 - 3.8 percentage economic advancement forecasts while its export progress has been elevated to 3.6 percent from 2.9 percent. The rise in exports is mainly due to steep costs of commodities more than the volume of trades.


The central bank retained its key percentage interest rate at 1.50 percent since April 2015 and the upcoming policy review is scheduled on May 24 and expected also kept unchanged. Yet, there is a possibility for the Thai central bank to increase its rates by 25 basis points later in the year because of both sturdy growth statistics and probable augmented U.S. rates.

 

April Retail Sales Data for US Increases by 0.4%


A highly positive retail sales data for the US economy has further reaffirmed speculations that the country’s economic status is regaining its momentum following a previously weak slew of data last winter. However, these positive economic reports were pockmarked by a drop in earnings reports. But economists are saying that the country’s economy could possibly be in for stronger consumer data in the second quarter of 2017, which is apparently not surprising since the US labor market is continuously showing signs of steady improvement.

 

Economic Data of China Indicates Slow Growth


The economy of China further provided below-expected results of its economic indicators as the fixed-asset investment (FAI), manufacturing output and retail sales in the month of April declined.


The output of the industrial sector gained 6.5% in the earlier year, compared with the 7% projection of polling analysts of Bloomberg while 7.1% predicted by Reuters.


While factor output rose by 7.6% during March which is the fastest in two years. Fixed investments expanded by 8.9% in the months of January to April 2017, figures are based on the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as polls projected 9.1%


The sales of retail boosted by 10.7% in April from the first quarter of the year. According to forecasts of experts, the rise will reach 10.6% which is lower versus the past period of 10.9% development. Whereas, the growth in private investment that accounts for an approximately 60% of the national sum value, dropped to 6.9% and acquired 7.7% in Q1.This indicates that the small and medium-sized private companies will remain to experience difficulty in finances.


The target growth of China is close to 9% allocated for the FAI’s 2017 while there are expectations that the retail sales will surge to 10% generally.


The second largest economy in the world had obtained a 6.9% expansion in the first quarter which is the most powerful since 2015. China had lessened its economic objective to give way to the policymakers in boosting reforms and to control financial risks.

 

Australia’s Record Low Wage Growth at 1.5%


The household debt climbed to an all-time high that affects spending and inflation that moved Australian wages sluggishly. This raised concern to the Reserve Bank of Australia and lower than the target of 2 to 3 percent leading to two rate cuts last year to a record low of 1.5 percent.


The wage price index climbed to 0.5 percent in the first quarter compared to the quarter before while the annual wage growth maintained at 1.9 percent which is significantly half less a decade ago. Although the central bank is pointing out that the wage growth decreases indicating less pressure to labor costs.


It is anticipated that inflation will recover early next year while wages rises slowly with the progressing jobs market. Data shows that the public sector to be gaining more appeal to investors with 2.4 percent increase compared to the 1.8 percent in the private sector. recovery of mining investments following a stagnant growth.

 

New Fintech Rules will be Imposed by Brazilian Central Bank


Brazil’s central bank is interested in implementing regulations to the FinTech sector to provide support for the industry startups and other firms in engaging and improving the Brazilian nation that is currently suffering from a recession.


As published in the recent report of Reuters, the monetary authority of the country, Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) is planning to put into effect such rules for this year to sustain growth to FinTech companies and further services available in the Federative Republic of Brazil


According to Otavio Damaso, the BCB’s Chief of Staff, the advancement of FinTechs and innovative products seems positive for improving the financial system of the country since the economy is experiencing a worst depression.


The economy of Brazil got an 8 percent rate in March 2017 which is lower during December 2014. In the past, the country is known to be one of the fastest growing economies around the globe, then political controversies and mismanagement of funds arise creating jobless 13 million individuals.


During the former years, the traditional financing options caused banks to charge borrowers higher interest rates, this open doors for many fintechs to influence the Latin America’s biggest economy to offer loans at a cheaper price.

 

Congress Rift Might Dampen Trump’s NAFTA Dream


The Trump administration has already started the first part of its renegotiations with regards to the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada. But this first step towards NAFTA adjustments has created a rift between some Republican and Democrat senators, with the backers of the said agreement clashing with dissenters. These negotiations are expected to corner Trump especially now that his political policies are being put at stake by a political crisis within the US economy.

 

U.S Labour Market Declined Despite Positive Economic Outlook


Applications for U.S unemployment benefits had fallen circumstantially during the previous week, while the total of jobless Americans declined to a 28-1/2-year low which could lead to a sudden failure on the labor market slack.


The economic development was supported by the data released on Thursday that showed an abrupt expansion towards the manufacturing activity within the Mid-Atlantic states this month. The report says that the shipments for goods accelerated and more working hours for laborers. Further measure for the economic activities increase again in the month of April.


The positive data favors the expected hike in interest rates for the following month, even if the decision of the Fed Reserve depends on the condition of the financial markets, which recently been shaken by the scandals of US President Donald Trump.


Jobless claims benefits were lessened by 4,000 with a seasonal adjustment of 232,000 within the week that finished on May 13 as it experienced a three-weeks consecutive decline, as mentioned by the Labor Department.


Economists penciled last week that claims will reach 240,000 but it currently obtained less than 300,000 by which the threshold is linked with a stabilized job market for 115 successive weeks. This is the longest period recorded since the year 1970 which historically appeared that the market was smaller.


The employment sector reached full employment with the jobless rate gained a 10-year low to 4.4 percent. The U.S economy was able to produced 211,000 number of jobs in April.

 

Extended OPEC Output Cuts Raise Oil Prices


The extension of production output cut from big oil producing countries caused the oil prices to rise. Oil future climbed to the highest in almost a month and key benchmarks reaching gains for two weeks. Brent crude LCOc1 increased by 0.5 percent adding 28 cents at $52.79 while the U.S. crude oil CLc1 rose by 0.6 percent equivalent to 29 cents at $49.64 a barrel which is the highest since 26th of April. Investors are optimistic that production will reach an estimated 1.8 million barrels per day by the end of March 2018.


OPEC leaders and other oil producing countries will have a policy meeting on May 25 in Vienna. Although, there are signals indicating sufficient supplies from the Saudi Arabia being the biggest oil producer. Investors have mixed sentiment with conflicting concern from the drop in U.S. oil stocks and OPEC oil cuts.

 

Japan Exports Rallied for 5 Months


Exports from Japan notably increased for five consecutive months indicating a strong offshore demand and increased shipments of semiconductors and steels that boost economic growth. In April, exports climbed up to 7.5 percent compared with the previous year and lower than the median estimate of 7.8 percent yearly growth.


On the other hand, its trade surplus with the U.S. also decreased by 4.2 percent from a year ago while the exports jumped by 2.6 percent and continuously grows in the past three months because of high volume of car and auto parts shipments. An economist predicts that this upsurge will continue including domestic imports but the protectionist trade policies of Donald Trump raises concerns with Japan being an export-reliant country.

 

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Food Stamp Program in Peril from Trump’s Tax Cuts


The Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program or SNAP is currently in peril as Trump’s budget plan could possibly slash over $190 billion from the said food stamp program. These cuts on SNAP will be representing a funding cut of over 29%, since the US government spent over $70 billion on the food stamp program last year. Prior to this particular cut, the Trump administration had recently proclaimed that it will be able to strike a budget balance within a decade without altering the US government’s biggest spending drivers, namely social security and medical assistance. Trump had previously stated that there will be no changes made to these factors during his campaign period.

 

Debt Relief for Greece Still in Progress, No Deal Yet


Intercontinental lenders in Greece has a comprehensive meeting discussing debt sustainability on Monday. The meeting ended failing to reach an agreement about additional debt relief for Greece. Ministers disagreed to grant new loans to Athens but the head of Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem says otherwise. He said that they are deliberating and making progress on the next disbursement targeting before summer to be able to pay due debts in July.



In their next meeting, they are optimistic that they will settle a deal in doling out bailout funds to the country on June 15. They are aiming for a more sustainable agreement which the International Monetary Fund commended and hoping that E.U. governments will support this deal. Although, the deal is not yet ready and will most likely be implemented once the current bailout program has ended next year.

 

FOMC Minutes Signal Interest Rate Hike Next Month


Fed officials are now more than ready to raise its short-term interest rates after stating in their meeting last month that increasing its rates are now “more than appropriate”. The central bank also moved to begin cutting back on its Treasury and mortgage securities holdings, which is currently worth $4.5 trillion. The Fed also stated in its minutes that they will be allowing an accumulation of these said securities in the long run without having to reinvest its proceeds to other assets. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled this coming June 13-14 and will be immediately followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

 

China’s Debt-rating Downgraded by Moody’s to A1 from Aa3


The credit rating of China was downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday, the previous Aa3 (Double A-3) were down to A1 which means that the Chinese economy is going to grind lower for the next years as the country showed slow growth and its debt continuously increase. The downgrade is done due to the financial pressure that the government faces after years of credit-driven stimulus.


Craig Erlam, a Senior Market Analyst of Oanda, said in an interview, “Because talk of Chinese debt and concerns about the size of Chinese debt has been going on for the last few years. They seem to be very reliant on these high levels of growth, which has been slowing.” He further added that the credit downgrade does not surprise him at all.


The second largest economy in the world gained 6.7 percent last year and 6.9 in 2015, this pace is the slowest based on the records since 1990 by which Erlam believes that the following years appears to be challenging.


The bond credit rating company has expectations that the direct debt burden of China’s government will climb higher reaching 40 percent of 2018’s Gross Domestic Product which is close to the 45 percent as the decade ends. However, it remains lower to the 60 percent for the European Union.


The Finance Ministry of the republic claims that the downgrade is based on an improper approach that overestimated the risks on the increasing debt.

 

Trump Proposed 45 Percent Cut in Mexico Aid from U.S. Spending


On Tuesday, the U.S. spending reserved for foreign aid for Mexico and Central America are to be reduced as proposed by the President Donald Trump. The budget was proposed to trim as much as $3.6 trillion government spending in the following ten years for 2018 budget proposal.Although, this may not get a legislative approval as to how it is currently with other departments cuts especially in the State department.


Mexican aid worth $87.66 million will be lessened over 45 percent from the 2016 expenditure when Trump's proposal is approved. The budget cut will be transferred to the Mexican military including counterterrorism funds and other government programs. One of the officials commented that these deals are focused on bolstering border security and fight against corruption that may have hindered transnational criminal organizations. There will be a meeting to discuss the employment and security concerns in Central America in June.