Roulette Hot vs Cold / Gambler's Fallacy proven a "fallacy" yet again

A few quick topics to cover here..
The first being my quote that "Random has limits"
To show this I charted spins and noted the Standard Deviation of the "hottest" numbers
and the "coldest" numbers. This is how it looks when charted :


Clearly any future spins are going to result with the outcome being somewhere between the orange
and the green lines. This is how "random" is contained as the game plays out.
Most people think "random" means "anything can happen".. This clearly isn't the case.
There won't be anything that appears outside of these two lines - "random" is contained.
This also means that random has limits.
This applies to the fair game of roulette where each spin is independent and does NOT apply
to a wheel with a mechanical problem. That chart would look differently as the orange line would
increase instead of moving towards the blue one over time.
But to the 99.9% of players who won't experience a bias wheel and prefer system and
methods - this is how random is contained and has limits.

===============================================================

The next thing I want to demonstrate is Hot vs Cold. I have in the past pushed "cold" number
methods and I'll explain why below.
As I said in another post - a HOT number can stay hot or move towards the blue line in the chart.
A COLD number can stay cold or move towards the blue line in the chart.
The ONLY way to win at this game is to play numbers that are rising in the chart, not the ones
that hit "as expected". This makes it clear that playing cold numbers properly can benefit the player, despite the nay-sayers who will claim that "it doesn't matter which you play, the results are independent".

So then lets explore this in a fair way.
I'll take the Euro wheel with 37 pockets and run off 7 cycles of spins.
This will give me a good idea from the data which numbers are Hot and which are COLD.
Now, to demonstrate what I'm saying - I'll bet the 7 hottest numbers and chart the results.
Then I'll play the 7 coldest number and chart the results.
According to the anti-system people, it won't matter - they will be the same. It won't matter
if a number was HOT or if it was COLD because those are past spins and don't influence future spins. They will also say this is a Fallacy to "expect" something to happen with random.
So I'll run spins and post results... then "you tell me" what argument is valid.
I'll make the chart more obvious by using a progression on any number that wins.
1 unit, 2 units, 4 units, 8 units, 16 units. When a 16 unit bet wins - the "test" sample is over.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Run #1 - Cold vs Hot
top 7 coldest numbers / 5 level bet progression :

top 7 hottest numbers / 5 level bet progression :


Seems rather dramatic doesn't it ?
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Run #2 - Cold vs Hot
top 7 coldest numbers / 5 level bet progression :

top 7 hottest numbers / 5 level bet progression :

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Run #3 - Cold vs Hot
top 7 coldest numbers / 5 level bet progression :

Doesn't seem that great, but it recovered (this time)
top 7 hottest numbers / 5 level bet progression :

Terrible results again with the hottest numbers.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Run #4 - Cold vs Hot
top 7 coldest numbers / 5 level bet progression :

top 7 hottest numbers / 5 level bet progression :

==================================================
==================================================

This was a quick example, using a fair test of Hot and Cold numbers.
Clearly the results do not compare as being equal in any way whatsoever.
Therefore the "fallacy" that one bet is better than another based on past spins
IS a fallacy. It also demonstrates how betting the "past" Cold numbers with a progression
can work very nicely for the player.
No one looking at these results would take the hottest numbers and play them in this
fashion - you can see what the results would be.
What I do currently is play number AS they are becoming hot, not ONCE they are hot.
There is a significant difference as my posted results have shown.

Here are the totals - remember, the anti-system people who claim it is all "fallacy"
will say these results should show the same outcomes basically over time because there is
no benefit (they say) in playing hot vs cold or any bet vs another bet.

Session...COLD result.....HOT result
1.....+$710.00.......-$540.00
2.....+$440.00.......-$887.00
3.....-$016.00.......-$2,008.00
4.....+$312.00.......-$1,839.00
=======================
ALL..+$1,446.00.....-$5,274.00

COLD -

=====
VS
=====
HOT -

 

Fine work Turbo. Over at roulette30, there are no hot and no cold numbers (lol). There is little you can do for "those" types, its a dead end. If the #35 has 17 hits in the last 175 spins, 80% of the posters will say its not hot.

I have nothing for that, neither do you.

Ken

 

Just curious.

How much money do you make per year PLAYING roulette?

What did you do before you started playing roulette?

 

Yet another excellent summary presentation of spin results statistical analysis. Great job, Turbo! I always applaud your willingness to share your work and insights. Thank you.

 

I'm not sure about that - you have a history of being contradictory when I post. But if you are curious fine.

That's between my accountant and me. No really, it is. I don't make claims (well, usually I don't). I won't give a dollar amount to answer the question. The people who need to know that know. And it's not even related to this thread.
Someone can poke fun at my "non-answer" but you won't see Sir Anyone give you a dollar amount for what he makes playing his AP way, or anyone else for that matter. They won't do it either.

In my intro I explained it all. I started working on roulette as soon as I had a computer that had a rng option (the old-old-old days) and that was flawed of course but it got me interested and have worked on it every day (mostly) since then. Even to the laughs of the haters who point out that even on a holiday, I'm working on roulette. It doesn't "consume" my time. I have a wife and children and one that requires constant attention. I still make time to work on roulette without neglecting any other thing in my life. It's not that hard to believe. Before that ? Before roulette ?
Well - that was mostly doing what every other teenager was doing at the time.
The details will be in the autobiography or just wait for the movie to come out.

 

There's an infection of ignorance that's beginning to consume this board.

 

Beginning?

 

Will the scene where you win a million playing the HolyGrail at Las Vegas be recorded several times and cut or will it be recorded one time straight away whatever happens?.

 

Beautiful work TG. Point well made. I do loves me a graph!

 

Feel free to post your truth then. If not - your comment/opinion has no weight.

 

I know ! I even charted it to find out lol

 

LMAO another beauty!

 

Calculating the limits of random based on the size of spin sample.

Using the following steps, you should be able to calculate what the limits of randomness are for your spin sample size. This will give you clear insight into the ideal progression for your system, and the spin sample size. The calculations apply to the outside EC bets, and single number bets on the insinde.



1. Start with the spin sample size.
2. Divide the spin sample size by two.
3. Continue redividing each answer by two... repeatedly.... until you reach zero.
4. Next, count the number of times that you had to divide by two in order to reach zero. The number of times that you had to divide by two will tell you the ideal length for your progression, and what the limits are for the sample size. Using this formula will provide you with the limits for randomness.

Also... When starting out, start with a smaller number for your calculations, such as 200 or 300 spins. This will help reduce the number of times that you will have to divide.

Important: You must use a pencil and paper for the division, otherwise you will get a rounding error if you use a calculator.



Best of luck everyone!

-Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone.

 

"What I do currently is play number AS they are becoming hot, not ONCE they are hot" >> This is something I am currently diving into. Of course every person may have a variation of DIFFERENT rules (lol), thats the way it is I guess.

Becoming hot (hopefully becomes hot). I'm sure I'll get five posts, I'm the nutty guy. (lol)

Ken

 

Ha.
It's going to take more than luck to get to 0. (and LOTS of pencils !)
At least you don't deny that random has limits, on a fair wheel producing random results.

 

You only need 1 number to go "hot" if you use a aggressive progression.
Don't bother with 1,2,3,4,5 because that won't work.
At least start with 1,2,4,8,16 and that 16unit bet win will cover any loss you may have had to that point (typically)
The only question is "what numbers are going to be hot ?" (and that's been covered already)

 

Random may have limits on your cartoon wheel, but in the real world it doesn't.
Of course you won't see a ten standard deviation number after one spin, because the math doesn't allow for it. The randomness is only limited by the sample size. Meaning, you can't have ten reds in a row if you only watch nine spins.

 

Where did you get that wisdom?!

 

Clearly over time random has limits, as I displayed.
There won't be some mysterious spike on the chart, it will actually balance out even more and stay that way.
You must be thinking about your broken wheels and not the real world where wheels produce random.
Once you can accept this, you can clearly see where the player's advantage is.

 

TG,

So now cold numbers are the way to go? This seems to be a complete U-turn from your recent view that you should only pick numbers which are hitting ABOVE expectation. I'm confused.