Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 24, 2017


There was a choppy session in trading British pound against U.S. dollar on Wednesday. Traders were unsuccessful in their attempt to bring the price higher. There was a breakdown at the level of 1.28 which gives a bearish tone in trading. Although, the 1.2850 level and above could offer sufficient selling pressure to reverse the trend. It is advisable to sell in short-term rallies as the market continues to be cautious to possess the British pound ahead of the negotiations.


A resistance is found at the 1.29 level which could appeal to sellers between the levels of 1.2850 and 1.29. On the other hand, a break lower than the lows of the day could lead to a further decline with a short-term target of 1.2650 level.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: August 25, 2017


During the Thursday session, the U.S. dollar dropped against the Canadian dollar as it reached the 1.25 handle once again. If the market was able to breakout below, this could fasten the pace to proceed downhill. Although, this would not be a facile process. A rebound is also plausible which is already foreseeable if it happens but the 1.26 level remains resistive. A breakout in the upper channel which would have a big influence to the pair as traders react to the speech with Janet Yellen for today. Volatility could exist in the market, despite the ones in power are the sellers.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 30, 2017


The rates are still maintained despite high volatility during the Tuesday trading session. The volatility is not surprising as the market reacted to the speeches from Draghi and Yellen on Friday. The speeches finished late for the day when the U.K. market closed as well as on Monday which is a holiday in the U.S.


Volatility is already anticipated which is what happened yesterday. Furthermore, the monthly end currency flow added to it. It supported the pair to move higher over the 1.20 level as it moved towards 1.2070 prior to the U.S. session. Higher global risk also partly contributed to the movement which directly involves the U.S. as the DPRK persists to threaten with different missile tests. Nevertheless, the situation has been handled pretty well and the same time supported the dollar to strengthen in the later in the day.


There was a correction seen that further pushed the pair towards the 1.20 level that closed the day when it started. The movement occurred quite fastly as traders are anxious on how long the trend will last. They are also cautious and trying to see how long before the ECB will intervene in the event of strong euro. These have had a big impact on euro and there will most likely be choppiness for short-term.


For today, the preliminary GDP data and the ADP report from the U.S. are anticipated to be released today which could greatly affect the pair and monitor its impact on the increase of rates. This would also determine if it big enough for the Fed to proceed with a quick rate hike by the end of the year. Hence, volatility is already anticipated and the holiday period is about to end as the EUR/USD pair would have a big change in action for short-term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 6, 2017


The EURUSD moved sideways during the opening of Tuesday’s session, however, Americans have returned to market and bought the single European currency. Another attempt to touch the level 1.20 was made and expected to offer some psychological resistance. As it may be a reversal of the risk off sentiment that was felt across the board. Nevertheless, Americans are planning to embrace the risk on attitude within the currency markets.


The weakness of the greens were generally seen, hence the euro-dollar pair attracted further gains. A close over the 1.20 region based on a daily close has the potential to push the market higher in the longer-term and the targets remains on top of 1.25 level.


Pullbacks keep on buying opportunities and later on will obtain an impulsive trend to move upwards. But, it should be noted that the 1.20 area is highly significant. Several opportunities could probably appear, however patience is very necessary to find the pullbacks which could provide signals when is the best timing to be involved in the market.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 7, 2017


As the week begins, the EUR/USD was seen consolidating and trading in a tight range which continues in the past 24 hours. But it is possible to change its course after the next 24 hours since the markets will draw their attention towards the single European currency, also with the plan of the European Central Bank in the near term.


The euro-dollar pair hovered at the level of 1.19 in the following day, however, there are no hints of any specific trend. Generally, markets appeared to be in a consolidation mode because traders and investors are waiting for the situation to become normal and calm again.


The tension and global risks remain high as the market somewhat predicts for an approaching attack from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. With this, the dollar weighed down with a lot of pressure since Monday.


However, the focus for this day could possibly be in the euro due to the announcement made by the ECB about interest rates which is followed by a press conference. The central bank planned to maintain the rates steady and this is what M. Draghi expected to say during the press con. Hence, this will determine the direction of the EUR in the short term.


The ECB is now very cautious about the strengthening of the euro as the bank failed to reverse or change the fundamentals and planning to put euro in a bid in order to limit the currency’s strength. If Draghi did not do so, then it is expected the EUR/USD will move under the 1.19 handle and drove near 1.18 in the near term. Otherwise, the pair will return to its highs at 1.2070 again.


Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United States or from the euro region. Therefore, the focus will turn to the developments in Korea, as well as to the ECB.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 13, 2017


The U.S. dollar moved sideways at the beginning of Tuesday session. Soon after, the pair rallied much higher. Currently, the level of 110 is being tested but there is still a gap that could raise some concerns. Nevertheless, this gap has been filled. However, traders should still be careful since there is a sign of “overbought” in the market. A pullback could happen after some time since the market is sensitive enough to react suddenly before going forward. Consequently, a breakout occurred at 110.25 level and the price will most likely move forward towards 111 level.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 14, 2017


The EUR/USD further declined on Wednesday due to the widespread recovery of the dollar. As of this moment, the greenbacks continued trading in a strong manner despite the sluggish data presented by the US Producer Price Index (PPI). This did not really influence the USD since the market is starting to like it and drove much higher among other instruments. However, this made an impact to the euro-dollar pair and led to a downturn in the past 24 hours.


There are also assumptions that President Trump and his team are one of the reasons for the dollar crashing in the previous months, but his actions appeared to support the greens now. The partners of Trump seems to lack support and he even attempted to negotiate with the members of the opposing party to obtain some help in accomplishing his reforms and further plans. D. Trump is trying to drive the issue about debt ceiling until the end of the year, while there are rumors that the American leader is interacting with the Democrats to fulfill his healthcare program and tax reform.


The underlying question is about the efficacy of the plan as a whole and the effectiveness of the project’s other details. Moreover, the market and the USD are in favor with this which ended on buying the dollar with an advanced optimistic outlook. Hence, the EURUSD moved lower down to 1.19 mark and currently sits at the 1.1875 support which is quite weak.


Ultimately, there are no scheduled economic releases from Europe for today, except for the major CPI data from the United States. The figures are expected to provide an outlook regarding the current inflation in the US. If the results were strong, it will enable the continuous recovery of the dollar in the near term, pushing the pair close to the 1.18 area.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 19, 2017


The trading has been sluggish but the pound still remains to be the tops in the volatility as it continues to move the market in the past 24 hours. Yesterday, the only major news was the speech of Carney and the market anticipates a hawkish decision which further boosts the GBP/USD pair during the first half of the day. However, it declined later on.


Although Carney has mentioned monetary tightening, the Bank of England still needs to take manage the economy. Yet, there are no specific dates which frustrate the market as the British currency dropped after the speech and move lower than 1.35 for the day. A rebound occurred overnight and traded higher than 1.35 although this could just be a form of a correction in a bigger uptrend that could still change.


Considering the upcoming data and the recent developments in the U.K., it is possible for the BOE not to give attention to the economy and the central bank will most likely react but only in the succeeding months. The BOE already said that they will have a reaction amid the uncertainty with the ongoing Brexit. These would result in a rate hike in the upcoming months. Both the central bank and the market are anticipating for the Brexit uncertainty would wear off in the next few months which hasten the decision of the bank.


Today, there is no major news from the U.K. or from the U.S. Hence, consolidation is already anticipated ranges between 1.35 and 1.36 for the day as the market manages ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. The bullishness is presumed to persist for the GBP/USD pair for short-term and target for 1.38 and 1.39 levels.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 25, 2017


On Friday, the EUR/USD had another range trading and consolidative day and attempted to break the 1.2000 level. However, a sudden strong selling beat the pair back which pushed the single European currency under the 1.20 region. This scenario was already anticipated since the elections in Germany is scheduled over the weekend, considering the fact that there is no one who would like to have large positions until the weekend.


The elections took place and the results were announced, showing already anticipated outcome which is the victory of Merkel’s party. However, something unexpected happened as the formation of a coalition started since many have said that Merkel is incapable to lead a government by herself only. Moreover, this could continue for some days or even weeks and the market is not in favor with this. There are only some instances where markets preferred some uncertainties and this situation could probably keep going and could lead for the euro sell-off.


During the trading session this morning, we saw some sell-off in EUR, but a retracement developed. As of this writing, the EURUSD appeared to be weak which might continue until the end of the day. The London session is much awaited due to a lot of news regarding the elections that the markets would receive, allowing the market to make its own decision about which way to go. Hence, the indecision and uncertainty brought an impact to the euro.


Ultimately, the ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to have his speech along with Germany’s election results which could possibly control the EUR trend for this day. According to projections, the euro-dollar pair will be under pressure throughout the day.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2017


The EUR/USD bounced back after the report for wholesale price inflation came in better than expected. As the yields provided some support which made the single European currency to gain more attraction in relation to the US dollar, with the continuous boiling of the Catalonian issues.

The greenback was able to sustain its gains due to a stronger than expected results of same-store sales, as it jumped almost to 5%.


The euro-dollar pair rebounded yesterday, followed by testing of the support region at 1.1661 area near the August lows. The pair’s resistance touched the 1.1822 level which is close to the 10-day moving average. Whence, the 10-day moving average moved beneath the 50-day moving average which indicates a downtrend in the medium-term in place.


Moreover, the momentum preserved its negative position while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is printing in the red accompanied by a descending trajectory. This further shows that exchange rate became lower.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2017


The markets are generally dull yesterday in spite the Cable pair moved higher during the daytime trading session. Both Canada and the United States is a holiday and liquidity is expected to be low during the entire day, while Japan is a holiday as well. However, the bulls active in the pound market took advantage of the low liquidity in pushing the prices upwards.


Meanwhile, the British pound continues to struggle in the sluggish data causing the Bank of England to keep on hold in the near term. During the BoE’s meeting in the previous month, there are possibilities that the central bank would raise its rates in December this year, but the impact of political risks and weaker data prompt them to be on hold.


The Brexit process is excluded from the issues of political uncertainties rather the extension of the UK Prime Minister Theresa May from her position.


Currently, PM May is urging to resign even by her own party and it remains unclear how she will handle this issue as well as to maintain the focus on processing the Brexit referendum.


Moreover, there is a rising issue about the no-deal in the euro area which could negatively affect the Britain’s economy.


If these factors were combined, it could probably keep the GBP in the pressured area. For today, the UK manufacturing production data is scheduled to be released from the United States. When the liquidity became stable again, it is expected that the greenback will continue to decline but will support the GBP/USD pair to ascend.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2017


The GBP/USD pair keep on trading in an up and down direction which seems directionless, by the weakness of the U.S dollar helps the Cable pair to boost amid this period.


The struggle of the British currency continues due to the risks linked with the Brexit process, however, the dollar weakening appeared to be massive which affected others in moving up over the greenback. Until now, the Brexit process is ongoing but it remains to be seen any major development.


The delay in the talks continues while other discussion also does not provide any progress so far. This trigger doubts if Brexit talks could possibly break down and further led to question if the United Kingdom will depart from the European Union even without any accomplished deal. This could be the possible thing to happen at this particular moment, which further resulted in lot of uncertainty.


Moreover, the position of PM Theresa May seems to be threatened since last week because most of her party are against her leadership technique. Albeit, she was able to surpass such mess, she remains involved in a complicated scenario. These combined events pushed the sterling pound under pressure but the weakening of the dollar made it acceptable.


Ultimately, the retail sales and CPI data from the United States are scheduled today while the United Kingdom has no major data for this day. These set of data should be monitored carefully by market participants because inflation is considered a major parameter by the Federal Reserve, particularly, in making the decision about the rate hike in December. In case the figures showed strong data, the GBPUSD is expected to wane.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2017


The euro bucks pair failed to gain strength during the trading session on Monday, followed by expectations to drive higher amid sluggish US data issued on Friday. While the retail sales showed robust data as well, however, the CPI resulted to a lower than anticipated figures. This caused the EURUSD to test the 1.1870 range high but the pair continuously moved lower since that period.


The EUR/USD weakened until the end of the trading course last Friday and the activity happened yesterday was a mere continuation of that previous trend. On one side, the U.S. dollar was able to acquire further strength since there are no any hints about the next missile launch from North Korea sooner or later, but the markets are still expecting for such motion. Moreover, this supported the greens to stir gradually and firmly across the board in the morning. The momentum ascends during the American hours with a high possibility that John Taylor would replace Janet Yellen for the position as Fed Chair. Taylor is known to be hawkish and very supportive of Fed rate increase. He is also favored by President Trump as the hawkishness helped the USD to perk up versus its counterpart currencies. Also, this has pushed the pair downwards below the 1.1780 mark as of this writing.


Ultimately, the Germany ZEW economic sentiment is scheduled to release today and no other major news both from the European Union and the United States.


The strength of the greenbacks is predicted to resumed this day as the pair eventually turns towards the range lows at 1.1700 mark.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 30, 2017


The single European currency resumed moving lower as witnessed on Friday amid the sluggishness prompted by the ECB, as the central bank suspended the QE tapering. The effect of their decision would likely continue to be felt by the euro in the near term.


A sudden recovery was seen after the US dollar lost its strength on Friday, however, the impact appeared to be very insignificant and the euro is expected to keep on moving lower within this week.


The EUR was hardly hit by the ECB’s decision to extend the tapering until September 2018, which was opposite to market’s expectations that the program will end without delay. The scheduled data from the European region will remain robust. Moreover, the investors who are large buyers of euro were quite surprised in the past few months from the time when the ECB touched on the QE tapering in the previous meetings.


Whereas, ECB President Mario Draghi soften the talks about the tapering plan in the previous months in order to limit the strength of the European currency. But the market is not in the mood to pay attention and keep on buying more during that period. On Friday, they were awakened from the truth when the bank clearly stated its mood not to stop QE, which weakened the EUR.

A slight rebound is expected today but the overall trend appeared to turn downwards.


Ultimately, there is no major economic release from the US or Eurozone and as the month ends, there is a possibility of a profit taking, adjustments on positions and month end currency flow. Also, consolidation is anticipated, coupled with a small relief rally which could probably be sold and temporary.

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 2, 2017


The EUR/USD pair waited for the FOMC minutes throughout the trading day on Wednesday, the minutes are expected to be issued during the American session. Aside from this pair, there are other many currency pairs that desire to know the thoughts of Fed members regarding the future rate hikes with expectations to help them determine the short-term trend for the U.S dollar.


This ensures that the single European currency was fixed in a very tight range at 30 pips, while markets in a long position understand that any choppy movement would lead to an unprofitable trade. Since the focus is centered on the positioning of trades prior the major news events coupled with large trends once the news was issued.

It became more interesting due to the subsequent news later this week which has equal of importance with concerns of the greens. It further opened the door for the possible reversal by the FOMC with the approaching news events.


The FOMC failed to achieve its target, however, most of the text remained unchanged, particularly the talks of future outlook that came in lower than market expectations. This resulted in a sudden minor shock for the USD, met some buying and pushed the bucks to a tight range until the end of the course after the minute's publication.

Considering all the projections formulated the entire day, the minutes conversely disappointed the markets which further triggered choppy data by means of the ADP report released earlier the day.


There are reports that confirmed Jerome Powell as the next head of the Fed Reserve but caused the dollar to weaken later this day, nevertheless, the effect of this news would likely be temporary.


Ultimately, the attention was turned towards the British pound as there are no releases from the United States or the European region for today. Hence, it is safe to say that there is some tight ranging and consolidation within the euro-dollar pair amid the trading day while waiting for the US employment statistics tomorrow which could roughly confirm the rate increase in December.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2017


The GBP/USD softened during the trading course on Tuesday and it closed the day with choppiness with regards the British pound. The sterling lost its strength in the morning and successfully regained its entire losses until the closing of the day. As of this writing, the GBP is trading comfortably on top of the 1.3150 level. The rebound muddled the scenario relative to the direction of the British currency.


On one hand, the American dollar appears to remain unchanged throughout the course yesterday. US President Donald Trump is currently on a trip to different Asian countries, the twitter seems to be a good venue since Trump is outside US and sarcastic comments are not present also during this period. Therefore, it bolstered the greenbacks to maintains its position. The dollar received further support from the finishing touches on tax reform plan as the program is going through various stages. The pound was mainly bullish followed by a decline from the last fall that occurred during the BOE rate hike, however, it gave a gloomy economic perspective.


Despite the 2 cents decrease of the sterling on that day, it was able to recover within the day and worked out to acquire additional cent from the price on the same day. This indicates bullish signals towards the GBP while the market is worried about eliminating chances for more rate increase and starts to recede slowly.


Ultimately, both the United Kingdom and the United States will not release any major economic data throughout the day. Bullishness is expected to prevail amid the day. An increase from the Cable pair has the tendency to weaken and remained steady but the price could lead the price higher in the short term.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 10, 2017


The single European currency paired with the U.S. dollar drove higher during Thursday session since the trade surplus in Germany has expanded, while the U.S. initial claims rebounded. Moreover, the German growth is predicted to overcome its previous outlook as the inflation is projected to remain muted capping the upside in the pair.


The EURUSD had moved upwards and pushed back on top of the 1.1625 level near around the 10-day moving average, which serves as a support in the short-term. Further support hits the 1.1550 weekly lows. A close over the 1.17 region could possibly negate the formation and triggered consolidation. The negative momentum was seen declining as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator is printing in the red, linked with an ascending trajectory that gives signs of consolidation.

 

so continuation down :Þ

 

Do you have examples of predictions coming true? You need to show the good and bad to be taken serious

 

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2017


The EUR/USD pair had been moving unsteadily in the past few days as the pair moves up and down with high volatility as the greenback moves without a specific direction in the present global tone. The dollar is appealing to be bought in the short term yet the market maybe thinking twice. Although, there are instances where the rally of the dollar where it is being sold at a faster rate.


This maintains the pressure in the dollar and which would be advantageous for the euro. What’s keeping the market optimistic for the dollar is a rate hike from the Fed in December although, the market does not strongly believe this. There are no specific indications yet with indecisiveness of Fed members while the data move at a steady pace.


This has kept the dollar weak with any news or data to be released. In the past 24 hours, the euro decline to the area of 1.1750 which is seen to move down in general. The latest relevant news would be the continuation of the development of missiles from North Korea and the ongoing investigation on the accusation of Russian intervention in the US Presidential elections. These events would drive the dollar down.


For today, the speech of Draghi are expected during the London session but it is unlikely that he would discuss the monetary policy. Hence, traders should get ready for choppiness in trading this pair and be cautious in the liquidity of the pair.