Baccarat Progression thoughts?

I'm wondering what you think about my pretty basic twist to the D'Alembert progression. Instead of dropping back one unit after a win I repeat the bet. I keep a win loss record in my head after every bet and cut the bet size in half every time my wins and losses are even. Also, when im down more than 3 bets I switch to the regular D'Alembert until I'm only behind by 3 bets again. So my bets would look like this:

1unit (win)
1 (win)
1 (loss)
2 (loss)
3 (loss)
4 (win)
4 (win)
4 (loss)
5 (win)
5 (win) win loss is even, cut 1/2 rounding up or down
3 (loss)
4 (win)
4 (loss)
5 (loss)
6 (loss)
7 (loss)
8 (win) repeat, behind by 3 losses
8 (loss)
9 (loss)
10 (win) switch to D'Alembert
9 (loss)
10 (win)
9 (win) switch back to repeating wins
9 (win)
9 (win) cut half
5 (win) regular D'Alembert until 1st loss
4 (win)
3 (win)
2 (loss) back to repeating wins
3

 

Well I don’t really have an opinion. Betting progressions only change the way in which lose money on a negitive (overall) game. My own personal experiance with positive expectancy baccarat is the counting method for betting the ties...

 

I thought negative betting was the ultimate back in 1996... I was completely wrong and I'm glad I had many professional gamblers in the Casino steering me in the right direction.

When you are in a negative betting and you win, then repeat the bet in hopes of two wins in a row... this sounds like you getting yourself in double trouble because if you lose after the win, you're giving the casino a second chance to get YOUR money. i like the concept but not applying it....

I've never steered away from my simple positive progressive betting 1,2,3,2,3,4 (at 3 chips I color up a black chip and put in my chip tray and bet 2 chips.

 

Negative betting is not “betting when you are down” It’s any bet made on a game where you have a negitive expectancy. Whether you are down or up or what’s happened on your previous bets is irrelevant to the expectancy of the game.

 

Winning or losing does not effect either your bet or your decision to play a game...EVER. In card games only the cards that are out of the deck would effect bet and play... Wins or losses are irrelevant. Totally irelavant.

 

Betting with a progression always looks good on paper but as soon as you use it in a live game, everything changes. Once you are down or hit a bad patch you will lose discipline and patience. The worst thing is you changed and got your money back and in future you will deviate from your original plan.

 

The FIRST bet of a series should always be higher : 2- 1 - 2 -3- 3- 5 -1 ; Any time a loss occurs restart the series 2-1-2 .


GO for it with the First bet don`t be timid .

 

This is correct because you want to lock up a profit after any win or series of wins if you win more than one in a row.

Keep in mind that D'Alembert will win on its own in a true 50/50 game but the house Edge or commission or juice or Vig will acount for losing at least one more unit then you win. The problem with the OP's suggestion is that no matter what you do if you lose more hands than you win you're ultimately going to lose unless your winning bets are greater than your losing bets.

So what you need to do is take a series of every combination of win loss and run your progression with enough losses to compensate for the commission you will find out for yourself if it works. I say it doesn't work because no progression will take a negative expectation game and turn it into a positive expectation game.