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Baccarat TWO SHOES

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Apr 26, 2018.

  1. Mcvince

    Mcvince Active Member

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    See Jimske, this is where the disconnect comes in. I say the game is 95% subjective and you automatically imply that I mean it is a flip of the coin when that is the furthest thing I am trying to say. What I am an advocate of is making the game your own. When a template is presented, use that template to fit into what your comfort zone is and isn't. If you can't tailor that template to fit your game than that template is not for you.
     
  2. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    No, I'm not trying to imply that. Subjective means personal opinion or evaluation whereby there can be no right way or wrong way. Guessing to me just means not able to predict a future outcome. So what's your definition of template? Is the unweighted count a template? I would say that I use templates. The shoes I posted each had a specific template.
     
  3. Mcvince

    Mcvince Active Member

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    Yes, the way you play is a template. If you provide someone with your style of play, it may be a foundation for someone but everyone sees the game differently. That person who received your template can use what he/she learned from you and tailor it to fit their eye. That is what I mean by being subjective. Each player has a comfort zone of play.
     
  4. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I've been traveling and haven't had time to get back to you. Okay then I understand what a template means. The two shoes I posted each had a different "template" based on the texture of the shoe. So the placements are ixed as long as it's working. After that one has to decide what moves to make and those moves are all very subjective generally based on the history of the shoe. You might say the bias of the shoe and I agree with that. However past history as we all know is no prediction of future outcomes. Therefore essentially it's a guess. So unless we can actually measure it, quantify it, it is simply a guess.
     
  5. Mcvince

    Mcvince Active Member

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    I agree with you somewhat. In certain circumstances the past will dictate the future. I have found one thing that will occur 95% of the time and another 100% of the time in the shoe. It is similar to card counting. The issue is that I know it will come out but will it come out in the time that you want it to. The Pavlov's Dog scenario in this game is that it is a guessing game. Those who have played it enough and have invested a lot of time researching will tell you that it is the furthest of a guessing game.
     
  6. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    These back and forths become a little tedious. Maybe it's just a matter of definition or not taking the time to make clear statements. But words mean something.

    When you make such claims (95%, 100%) one can only assume that you are referring to a condition that exists in time (quantifiable) that will produce a specific result 95 times or 100 times out of 100 such occurrences, respectively. The only practical concern, as you allude to, is the wait time for such a condition to appear. (If we are waiting for Pluto to reach its apex in relation to the sun we will have to wait a lifetime so it matters little!) OTH, it's reasonable to assume that given enough data we can calculate the wait time for your unproven hypothesis. Similar to BJ you state? Depending on the rules and penetration we know that we will get approx. eight advantage occurrences per 100 hands - on average. Of course the outcome of such is nowhere close to 95 or 100%. In fact, the most we can expect is a 2% advantage.

    (Yup, this is getting boring! It's so academic!) I can only assume that you are NOT claiming such advantage. Because if you were and said advantage was anywhere close to the 95, 100% Keith wouldn't be living in Mechanicsburg "selling" subscriptions! So I can only ask earnestly, "What the hell are you talking about?" Nobody knows.

    The basic criteria as to whether these methods are guessing or not is very simple. Can it be quantified, measured, taught, etc. If it can't be measured then it is, using the vernacular, just guessing. I get that we are not talking about random choice and are using some structure to make decisions for 1) bet placements and 2) wager amounts. But without the ability to quantify that structure it is really just guessing.

    So please tell me you have measured it and can show data that has a SD with a low risk of ruin that would be acceptable to most gamblers. After that it is just a matter of calculating bankroll requirements.

    Thanks
     
  7. Mcvince

    Mcvince Active Member

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    Yes
    • Data
    Yes
    • People use it
    Yes
    • It happens as much as I say it does
    Yes
    • BTC has it
    Yes
    • This is getting quite boring and I am disinterested in this as well.
     

  8. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Jimske, on the Mohegan Sun shoe, is Player left column and Banker right column? This is what I am thinking but wanted to make sure. I like to add any live shoes I find into my Live Shoe database for any future testing. Thanks.
     
  9. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Wait, I see McVince has reproduced one of the shoes on his sheet and I see which is which. Thanks for the data.
     
  10. NPJ

    NPJ New Member

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    Good morning Vince,

    I like to know how I have to count the 1 - 2 -3 to each other. the first hand what comes out is not counted right? So when we have by example PBP we count B as the first opposite right or am I wrong here.

    Thanks for your answer in advance,
     
  11. Mcvince

    Mcvince Active Member

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    There are two things that you need to know about the count. Whether it is confirmed or unconfirmed. The first P without knowing the outcome of the next hand is unconfirmed because you don't know if another P will come out which will make it now an unconfirmed 2, or in the example you listed it went to a B which made it a confirmed 1.

    Also, you should score P and B separately. If you are able to look at hundreds of shoes, you will find that P and B have their own separate personalities. Example: You may be in a real streaky shoe but you find that the streak is only on the P side. If that is the case, why would you bet the B to go down if the B has trouble going down to a streak.

    Hope this answered your question.
     
  12. NPJ

    NPJ New Member

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    Dear Mcvince,

    Thanks for helping out
     
  13. NPJ

    NPJ New Member

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    Hi Mr. Vince,

    I am looking for membership somewhere, where I really learn from experienced winning professionals, not people telling me how to bet a shoe what already been played.

    Bottom line which players has become winners through their teachers? I need advice, I am not a gambler or a desparite looking for ready to systems. They all fail. It is about approach, and I think truly that progression betting is suicide longterm. I think winning 3 units per day and a 123 count what tells you what is favourable is how I should approach the game.

    Norms info I have partly found with contradictions how he played. I am sure you can advice me how to continue. I feel going nowhere right now.

    Thanks for your time
     
  14. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

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    Well allow me to give you a bit of free advice then. You have NOTHING, ZILCH, NADA if you honestly believe winning 3 units a day is the answer. The casino is going to love you and so will some of the scammers you are alluding to as well!
     

  15. NPJ

    NPJ New Member

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    Only I meant that as a basis, not as a goal. cause progressions no work longterm. so what is your success based upon?
     
  16. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

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    NPJ, I put these three in the following order.

    1) Timing
    2) Bet Selection
    3) Money Management

    You can't afford to be wrong with 1) A long term winning strategy must have it.
    We can all make the odd mistake with number 2) if we aren't disciplined enough but it won't kill you.
    3) can be pretty much whatever you like if you have perfected 1) and to a lesser extent 2) although I am partial to a parlay when I know my timing is spot on.

    That's my way. in 6 deck shoes here, I maybe place around 25 bets a shoe. My success isn't based on streaks as most players would define them or chops etc. Maybe that's why I win because I don't follow the crowd and I NEVER believe anything I read on how to win at this game. (which probably begs the question why do I read it, lol) I play a different game. The Baccarat setup or any table game for that matter is obviously designed for you to lose. So I play my own game and happily pay the vig towards the operators who provide the service.

    Just for a bit of added information because you seem keen on the game and eager for knowledge, I suggest you look at a blog on baccarat from someone called ''Imspirit'' Now it probably won't encourage you. It's more likely to have you questioning why bother playing! But then after reading some of that, maybe you can think in a different direction away from the crowd who get sucked in by the game and the scammers as well.
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2018
  17. NPJ

    NPJ New Member

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    Hi Mr. Vince,

    I have looked to the hands of you at the attached picture you added. Do we have to count the p and b separate as you do here. I guess I did it wrong then using 123 column.
    I only counted repeats and opposites. When 1 goes to 2 I put a 1 under 2 and when 1 stays 1 I put a 1 under singles. I compare what favours, opposites or repeats and what happens more. Singles or 2 or 2 to 3,s I focus mostly when 1 goes to 2 and singles.

    What should I do or improve from this point on, or correct. I flat bet and only loop 1-2 when up 3 units and only after a win.

    Thanks for your help in this

    NPJ
     
  18. NPJ

    NPJ New Member

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    Thanks for your post, I can not find the I am spirit thing though.
     
  19. John Blerg

    John Blerg Well-Known Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    Founder of CalAsia Proven Baccarat Wagering Method
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    How come you guys don't work for NASA or some large engineering firm in Manhattan making 6 to 7 figure salaries designing skyscrapers?
     
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