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Roulette The roulette lotto game

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by mr j, Feb 17, 2019.

  1. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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  2. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    The best way to play any lottery is to use the same numbers ALL of the time
    and don't change them. :)
     
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  3. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    Apparently(?) So it dropped to 1:115,385 BECAUSE the same numbers were used over & over again? PB is only twice a week, 104 draws a year. Over 25 years, thats only 2,600 total. Big deal.

    Ken
     
  4. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I was poking some fun.
    Each drawing is independent from the last one - so whatever numbers he played
    had the same chance as if he just played them once.

    Don't worry though, there will/might be arguments in both directions that follow (or won't be).
     
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  5. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    There's always the argument that playing more numbers decreases the odds of winning by 1/2

    So if you had a 1 in a million chance of winning...
    and you bought 2 tickets - you'd have a 2 in a million chance, "or" 1 in 500,000 chance.
    This isn't the case though.
    Basically with your 1 ticket, you cover 1 chance of winning out of the million chances,
    once you get the second ticket, you have 1 less chance from the first ticket,
    so there's 999,999 chances left and you have 1 of those.

    First ticket - you have 1 in 1,000,000 chance of winning
    Second ticket - you have 1 in 999,999 chance of winning.

    It's easy to mess it up and think it's 2 in a million (or 1 in 500,000) now, but that's not
    the case.

    So if he bought 2,000 tickets over those years, it doesn't change it much at all.
     
  6. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    As usual, you are WRONG again.
     
  7. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    His odds do NOT change.
     
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  8. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Ken ,


    Have a talk with Karen Nathan . She is very much into that lottery stuff .

    ND
     
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  9. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    Lets assume that there is never a repeat set in Power Ball. A guy stays with the SAME set every draw (until he goes broke, lol). Isn't every losing day one step closer to hitting (possibly hitting)? I am NOT saying its a guarantee of any sorts.

    Is this incorrect? >> "Aaron Tenenbein, a statistics professor at New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business, estimated Mr. Bailey’s odds would have been 1 out of 115,385."
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2019
  10. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    http://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/aaron-tenenbein << Someone is right and someone is wrong. I remember these conversations from a few years ago. I guess it all has to do with the WORDING.

    Ken
     
  11. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Which sadly shows that "the experts" don't know what they hell they're talking about lol.
    That school of business should be ashamed to have someone who doesn't know math teaching there.
    Then again, with all the "experts" quoted here by the misfits, I'm not surprised this is what's turned
    out these days.
     
  12. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Of course - his chances drop by however many guesses he makes each time, getting better and better slightly. (very slightly - but better)
    But in Power Ball or the lottery - each spin/draw is independent from the last, and there are repeats.
    Each chance is the odds of winning (1 in 292,201,338) - the second ticket is (1 in 292,201,338) and so on
    for that specific drawing. Next week it's the same thing, regardless of what won last week, etc.
     
  13. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Another opinion making the rounds if the jackpot is big enough buy a ticket .



    ND
     
  14. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    https://www.scientificamerican.com/...-long-shots-miracles-and-winning-the-lottery/ <<< Long article but the first part is interesting >>

    "One of the key strands of the principle is the law of truly large numbers. This law says that given enough opportunities, we should expect a specified event to happen, no matter how unlikely it may be at each opportunity. Sometimes, though, when there are really many opportunities, it can look as if there are only relatively few. This misperception leads us to grossly underestimate the probability of an event: we think something is incredibly unlikely, when it's actually very likely, perhaps almost certain."
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2019

  15. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm :)
     
  16. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    This guy should go back to school, the odds are still 1/292,201,338 everytime he plays. Even just after those numbers hit, the combination could come back again now or anytime.

    The fact that you're playing same numbers for 25 years are totally useless. For example at Roulette a number should appear 1/37 but it is a mean, it could come right now or after 600 spins. If the odds are 1/292,201,338 it is also a mean, it could come right now also but it could also need much more than this to appear. So the fact that you're playing them for 25 years doesn't mean anything.

    In europe we got Euromillion where you got to chose 5 numbers (1>50) + 2 star numbers (1>12) and it represents 1/139 838 160
    The only way you can reduce it is to play with 66 other people the same 5 numbers and where all stars numbers are played, this is now a game where everyone has 1/3 107 515 chance to win, instead 1/139 838 160. Still 1/3 107 515 is also a mean and it doesn't mean that you can hit the jackpot in your life...
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2019

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