Roulette Playing "Repeaters" in a controled way

Yes you're right. 111/6 hits isn't 100%. Could be copy and pasted wrong? Don't think it changes their point though.

 

No I do get their point Just was curious if the data presented was true. Nothing is almost 100%

 

Thanks Ka2, you never know, CelesCliff is around still and may be able to better identify where it came from. I tend to consider third-party information as "close" but never 100% unless I know the source.

Remember also that Excel's internal RNG is has been proven to be inaccurate compared to say Random.org, never base anything off of it if that's where your sample numbers are coming from.

 

Guys,

Random.org is the gold standard for RNG numbers. It doesn't get any better than them.

 

The numbers was generated by using .NET's Random class.

I lost the code so I can't have a look at it so I will need to rewrite it. I think the problem was that I probably initialized the Random class multiple times and when initialized, it's using the clock, so what happens then is that in a loop that is tight the same values can repeat more than it should.

I can remedy it by keeping a single random instance.

When I find the time I will code it again and (hopefully) will post more accurate result.

 

Thanks cliff, appreciate the effort.

 

Updated stats on 111 spin cycles:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A number hit 4 times in 999162 cycles out of 1000000
This is 99.9162%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A number hit 5 times in 986073 cycles out of 1000000
This is 98.6073%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A number hit 6 times in 872652 cycles out of 1000000
This is 87.2652%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Coded using .NET's random class with a single seed to avoid using the same values in multiple cycles.

 

Sorry, found a bug in the code - corrected results below:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A number hit 4 times in 1000000 cycles out of 1000000
This is 100%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A number hit 5 times in 999998 cycles out of 1000000
This is 99.9998%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A number hit 6 times in 982771 cycles out of 1000000
Tihs is 98.2771%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Program attached if anyone wants to test different cycle lengths:

 

Excellent work, Tesla

I ran some tests. Results here:

-------------------------------
1 million cycles of 37 spins
2 hit 100%
3 hit 98.405% times
4 hit 50.990% times
5 hit 10.939% times
6 hit 1.599% times
7 hit 0.192% times

-------------------------------
1 million cycles of 74 spins
3 hit 100%
4 hit 99.982% times
5 hit 90.1054% times
6 hit 45.47% times
7 hit 13.78% times
8 hit 3.22% times
9 hit 0.637% times

--------------------------------
1 million cycles of 111 spins
4 hit 100%
5 hit 99.9998% times
6 hit 98.277% times
7 hit 73.8% times
8 hit 34.35% times
9 hit 11.587% times
10 hit 3.301% times
11 hit 0.812% times

---------------------------------
1 million cycles of 148 spins
5 hit 100%
6 hit 100%
7 hit 99.693% times
8 hit 88.718% times
9 hit 55.022% times
10 hit 24.392% times
11 hit 8.699% times
12 hit 2.753% times
13 hit 0.7899% times

----------------------------------
1 million cycles of 185 spins

7 hit 100%
8 hit 99.938% times
9 hit 95.324% times
10 hit 71.416% times
11 hit 38.747% times
12 hit 16.700% times
13 hit 6.194% times
14 hit 2.090% times
15 hit 0.637% times


How can we read this?
What is the expected hit rate by spin 185? 5 times
What is the ACTUAL hit rate (at least 1 number hits 7 times by spin 185) 7 times

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Of course there is a chance that all numbers appear in 37 spins.
LOL! )

 

Of course there is a chance... If the trials are unlimited and not into 1 million spins.

You got as many chance to see that than to predict correctly the right sequence of 37 numbers with 2/3/4 repeats...

As you focus on it it looks impossible, but it could happen right now actually.

Here 0.192 to hit 7 times in 37 spins, but just imagine that for your first session, you were at the casino where the record has been established... what would you say? You don't need especially to wait x time to see x event.

 

Hi,

It`s 1 million cycles of 37.74.111.148.185, not 1 million spins.

The main point is to get away from the 1 spin mentality and to move to groups of spins/ numbers.
Numbers repeat. Whoo Hoooo, what a surprise!
No one is forecasting the future number, that is just silly, same like the thread on RF about telekinesis.
Let`s reset all counters, all algorithms and forget all methods (That includes the AP).
Now that we are at spin 0, looking forward, we only have math as a guideline.
No one can predict the future. Very good. Who needs the future anyway?

Lets look at the roulette table and take 37 spins.
We already KNOW there will be at least 2 repeats in it
The house edge is 2 numbers.
Do at least 2 numbers repeat in a cycle of 37? CERTAINLY -see the 37 million spins results.

Now how do we catch those damn repeats?
Obviously we have to bet on numbers that already hit once.
Can we bet on all of them? It`s impossible! The progression would be way more than the table limits.

But what do we know for sure?
Math: in average 24 numbers show in 37 spins
you will have at least one number that hits 4 times in 111 spins
you will have at least one number that hits 6 times in 148 spins
you will have at least one number that hits 7 times in 185 spins
and so on.

A number hit 7 times already in your session before spin 185?
Restart!

 

Remember the method posted by Mr J in 2012 on the old VLS forum.

Catch the 8th
https://www.vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=20214.0

Anyone?

 

I'm working on a program to provide more solid answer but the trend I found is cyclic.

It's the number used for generating the stats that determines what is cold or hot or x factor as well Assuming 50 spins .

It goes from bringing in new coldc num in to hitting a few 1x 2x 3x then any 4x 5x then 3x 2x the .1x back to two new colds in about A 12 - 15 spin cycle.

I also noticed and will put in latest program last trend to hit new cold numbers several times after the first one.

Also saw that if a cold has been there a while it trends to stay longer. Ones that just fell off the stats list , now 0x, tent to get hit almost right away n hit two more times in 20 spins. Those that just became cold again do not show up on the cold list all the time either. Not sure jow the list of the top 5 colds n hots are sorted but I would lean toward they not hitting often so u have to view wheel stats to get the whole list.

The colds mostly are at 9 total
1x warm I call them float around 9 as well the rest are Dup's 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x and make it the other 18 combined.

It's the cycle that I am most interested in.
You notice it too. Bet the hots only lasts 5 it 6 spins then u start to lose. Wait 10 spins or till first hot hit again then bet hots again for next 5 or so.

 

Frodo you still here?
What was max nuber of spis that it took for a first 3peater to show?

 

41 on my live tests but I'm sure it's get higher. But forget the direction you're going coz I was there before . By that time you got so many 2peaters you'll need a progression from Satan himself

 

Yeah i also saw 45 and it wiped me out. Had 12 2peaters. Yeah progression from hell indeed, i just wanted to calculate what kind of bankroll would be required to hold trough it.

 

I thought so because I asked myself that same question years ago lol....

 

Aaaand did you get to an answer or did you give up?
I always make same mistake, when bankroll increases so i increase my bet units, then session from hell comes and bam. Stupid and greedy me.

 

The answer is to stay far away from rare events. Focus on what's on average and faster . Forget about negative progression