Roulette The stock market / roulette testing analogy

Here's a big problem when it comes to testing (and playing) roulette
methods/strategies/systems..
I'll just grab 3M from the NYSE to show what this means.
Let's assume this is your "chart" after playing your system for an entire year...




It's far from impressive - as a matter of fact you're barely back to $0.00 and no one would look at this and say "WOW - great system you have there !!"
Of course not. As a matter of fact, after a year of doing this with no profit to speak of - you would have abandoned this way of playing for something "better".

Now, let's assume that someone else keeps playing your system for 5 years...



Well !!!!!! That's another story isn't it - Impressive !
The truth is, it's the same chart from the same company only extended longer.

Testing something that gives terrible or "no profit" results doesn't mean that it's not good.
Someone else who played it longer than you did (since you gave up on it) is well into profit.

Granted, it's apples and oranges - the stock market isn't "random", but to some level - neither is roulette.
But for those of us who play and test systems, the analogy fits.

 

Always thought about people giving up too early on a system ...

 

Historically, stock market investments have on average yielded 7%/year, the natural movement is an uptrend in the long run. Of course, if we take crisis periods like 2008, somebody who would have invested just before the crash would have lost 50% of his portfolio's value. But if he just let it sit until now despite the huge loss, he would be up by 60%.
Ben Graham, once said, “In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”

Excepted a biased wheel, I don't see how the StockMarket can be compared with an average Roulette Wheel which can only show a downtrend for any number in the long term.

 

Im thinking about it on terms of cycles like the stock market

 

The stock market has a lot of info unlike random numbers, where you have
to create the info to make any real progress, with methods/strategies/systems.

 

Turbo,

How's the book coming along? Can't wait to read it! (seriously)

 

Me too, give us the Amazon link ASAP.

 

Turbo has faded away .

The " misfits " have seen to that .

 

Guys;
Why are you pushing on Turbo?
He told you very clearly that he will not serving you all the details on a silver plate!!
Why would he?
Those that know, they play, I guess

 

Well wheres this book ?

 

It's going to be released online for free, on a site so everyone has access to it at no cost
and can read through it at their own leisure.

 

Hi Turbo ............REV Here long time since we chatted ,sorry for jumping on your thread ,but i have something i would like to share with you,it may take you back years and is a simple key to winning at Roulette.

 

Hmmm why not share it here rev ?

 

I also have something very good, jhon dexter, we could talk if you want ... regards