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Craps How to Prove a Craps Wagering System (using "thekid")

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by Frank Scoblete, Feb 5, 2015.

  1. Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete Active Member Founding Member

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    In another thread “thekid” stated the following:

    “To all the supposed [gurus] out there, I win 95 % of all my craps sessions. No progressions, flat bets. Example...If I buy in for $1,ooo, I either win $1,000 [or] lose 1,000. [Ninety-five] times out of 100, I win $1,000 within 2 hours.”

    He is obviously writing about a betting system /strategy that will win 95 percent of the time, meaning he’ll win $95,000 and lose $5,000, making him a $90,000 winner. This will take about 200 hours (give a little, take a little) of play.

    Can he prove this? He can certainly try. Doing so is easy. He should hire a neutral computer programmer; create a program and run millions of simulations. Craps is a random game if you are using such a betting system on every shooter or most shooters, so a simulation will be just as good as being at the table with “thekid.”

    To test the Captain's 5-Count, Dr. Donald Catlin, a mathematician at the University of Boston did simulations of 200 million shooters to see what would happen. We had a thesis; we tested the thesis. The results were in the realm of what we expected (actually better than we expected).

    “thekid” can do the same thing. Such a simulation will prove whether what he says is true is actually true.

    All betting systems can be tested by using simulations.
     
    Sputnik and Fritz like this.
  2. Robert Horel

    Robert Horel New Member Founding Member

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    This is Poobah, have not heard from the kid for a while,I think all the negative stuff scared him off,that is a shame.I feel his claim is hard to believe but would sure like to see him prove it to me.
     
    Fritz likes this.
  3. thekid1921

    thekid1921 New Member Founding Member

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    Occupation:
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    Las Vegas
    Hi,
    Did not post because as I said, I am NOT SELLING ANYTHING HERE,PERIOD!!!!. Thank you to everyone who defended me from the BASELESS attacks. They were unwarranted and inflammatory. For those interested, TEST ME!!!! One of the members of this board has begun testing me, but I see no posts to that affect, and I did win 47% of 100% of the buy in of that session in about 50 minutes of play. So, perhaps he saw I am not a system seller and just left it at that. As always, I am open to testing anytime!!!!
    Thank you for those who stood up for me!!!!
    Thekid1921
    "You have enemies? good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."...Winston Churchill
     
  4. Robert Horel

    Robert Horel New Member Founding Member

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    to thekid1921,this is Poobah,I will be in Vegas February 20/21 leave February 22 in the morning.Will be staying and playing at the Wynn/Encore,want to meet and play with you,please respond on this thread.
     
  5. Grafstein_disciple

    Grafstein_disciple Member Founding Member

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    Occupation:
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    To your point Frank - Wincraps is an excellent simulator - I believe the author is a member of this site - and will work with anyone to translate their "system" to a Craps Simulation. I believe it's at cloudcitysoftware.com ... great Craps product Free of Charge.
     
  6. Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete Active Member Founding Member

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    If he can do a few million simulations then he can prove or disprove his contentions. Otherwise, as Hamlet responded when asked what he was reading: "Words, words, words."
     
  7. Fritz

    Fritz New Member Lineage to Founders

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    I don't know if I should be adding to any of these threads here. I'm an ant among giants. But here I go:

    I've been following the 95%, String Theory post started by thekid. I couldn't believe how people attacked him without even listening. I even posted there saying I wanted to hear it. But that thread got retarded & now I go see it for entertainment purposes only. I see both sides, thekid & the replies talking with emotion & that leads to more emotion which becomes entertainment. The last post there was by Mr. Scoblete & to me as an outsider reading, rings to be true. He did not attack thekid in any way, he just wanted to see the math.

    Now, we are here & I hope thekid is following this post. Hey kid, I know you are not selling anything & I am sorry for the attacks that you incurred with your post. But, I personally would like to see the math. No matter what I do within gambling, I like to know the math of it. That's how the house sets up their games, 1% edge makes them millions, right?? I think that if you personally never did the math on your winning system using a simulator you'll benefit most by having the numbers. Not to fight idiots with, but to simply have the math of the system YOU developed. Like knowing facts about your automobile, HP, torque etc...

    I'm as much of a newbie in craps as can be. But, I'm watching math based theories to develop my game. Not 1 video I watched among min 500+, had guys yelling YES when they rolled a 7 and say "see??".

    That being said, maybe you do not have the time to plug in bets a few million times & roll. Maybe, you do not want to share your system, now that I get 100%. Why would you? you are definitely not a child & have nothing to prove to any1. All I'm saying is. I hope that you DO, do the math & use a simulator to get the math with millions of rolls & bets. If you need a finger to click on the bets on the simulator a million times for days on end, well I'm here to offer you my time.

    This is definitely a free roll for you. All you need to supply is what I need to bet & when. Mr Scoblete needs to supply the site for me to plug in the bets & rolls. All I will do is give you my time & give back the numbers. Poof, done..

    I have no emotional ties to either side. I'm impartial & I promise not to leak a single thing from your system & my word is GOLD.

    Fritz.
     

  8. diceinfluence

    diceinfluence New Member Lineage to Founders

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    I think you should take Poobah up on his offer to witness your play ... that way you can shut all the Critics up...
     
  9. Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete Active Member Founding Member

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    Do 200 million simulations and if you actually produce what your theory suggests no one will attack you because the simulations will be repeatable. Short term results of betting systems can have wild swings through sheer randomness.
     
    Fritz likes this.
  10. Alan Shank

    Alan Shank Member Founding Member

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    You do not need a "finger to click on the bets on the simulator"; the computer can run millions of rolls in a short time. That is why Scoblete is recommending testing the system using WinCraps. I also advocate WinCraps (actually WinCraps Pro now). BTW, although you can download it for free, to unlock the real power (HyperDrive) of the software you need to get a license, which costs a whole $14.95--the best software value I have ever seen.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
    Fritz likes this.
  11. mightymike

    mightymike Active Member Founding Member

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    sorry bud, but you got busted. and to think i wanted to believe!
     
  12. rongarm10

    rongarm10 Member Lineage to Founders

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    Well has "the kid" taken anybody up on watching him make his money? Just sayin.
     
  13. Icedad

    Icedad New Member

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    If he has that good of system . why not share it so everybody can win that is in the crap game. I have tried a lot of systems ,an I have not found one that works that good . I think and have heard 2 to 4 players at the table playing together works really good . because one or more of the group will have a great roll.
     
  14. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Craps like all EC are 0 strategy and 100 % LUCK.
     

  15. Icedad

    Icedad New Member

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    I agree with that.
     
  16. Chip Magnet

    Chip Magnet Active Member

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    ‘The Kid’ never mentioned how many sessions he played. Anyone can 95% of their sessions over a short sample, but over time they will lose.

    I posted these WinCraps results elsewhere, a few years ago. It is possible to win over thousands of rolls, before giving it all back.

    First session is 55K real dice rolls, including Zumma. Starting BR = $500. No additions. $10 flat bets with 2x odds.

    Second session is 100K RNG rolls. Starting BR = $1000. No additions. $10 flat bets with 2x odds.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Feb 27, 2022
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  17. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Frank Scoblete say they did 200 million shooter simulations.
    And I also read that the system aims for certain shooters with specific qualities to qualify the use of the system.
    Did they skip that part during simulation or did they simulate different shooters with different qualities? to get a realistic output?

    No matter what I will buy the book.

    Cheers
     
  18. Icedad

    Icedad New Member

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    what the name of the book
     
  19. Chip Magnet

    Chip Magnet Active Member

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    Sputnik likes this.
  20. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    Any material from Frank Scoblete should be avoided. I suggest reading page 24 of Beyond Counting.
     

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