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Baccarat Weighted/Unweighted Counts

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Jan 6, 2020.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Thought I’d continue a discussion on the weighted and un-weighted stuff. The whole premise is to detect a bias or predict future outcomes based on past events. In a truly random game this whole discussion is moot. But let’s assume the game is not random. Even if not we still have to predict.

    Lots of people trying to do this. Birthday Paradox, JK columns, Sputnik E-Cart, Glen turning points, Assymbac ?? who knows but he is one who insists the game is not random.

    That’s the idea around the weighted and un-weighted. Now McVince has said the weighted count adopted by Ellis is not good because it only has validity in millions of hands. Said in another way it doesn’t tell much about the bias in the immediate shoe but the unweighted count does. Or does it?

    I’m not trying to make this about VinSap or follow the shoe or SAP 20. That’s what it is whatever it is and if people want to opine or whine they can. It’s not profound but smart that we might want to keep the bets looking to just play the 1’s, 2’s or 3+ since the 4+ have a low occurrence anyway.

    The count as shown in my uploads simply counts the number of occurrences. That’s the easy part. The hard part or some may say the guess part is to compare the differences and try to figure out the bias from the differentials. IOW, if one of the elements is more prevalent than another could that be broadcasting the bias and can that trigger a bet?

    I really haven’t thought about it much to come to even a rudimentary conclusion. Maybe some of you might want to play around a bit and see what you think makes sense. If I have time I may.

    J
     
    judge likes this.
  2. Xytras

    Xytras Member

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    I think unweighted count helps a lot but only in conjunction with a trigger of a certain bias as both must indicate that a bet is appropriate.

    For example my fave biases are OTBL and SS but I would not place a bet despite the signal unless the count indicates that my bet will be corresponding with MC event
     
  3. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Why are people still goin round and round with jumbo mumbo about tryin to trend or out guess a shoe based on previous result? The best strikes rate yer ever gonna get at the baccarats is betting bankers only, period, hey hey.
     
    Nathan Detroit and judge like this.
  4. Xytras

    Xytras Member

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    That statement is just so wrong!
     
  5. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    You are TYPICAL of the cats who frequent these forums and who will never win regular no matter how many system you purchase, hey hey.
     
  6. judge

    judge Active Member

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    Bet 2 bankers go to 3 bankers.....I Flat bet...Lookin for a progression bet if conservative. Later Mark
     
  7. Xytras

    Xytras Member

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    Well, that statement alone certainly reflects your shining intelligence. As if you know me
     

  8. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Yup good thing I stock up on Guiness and cashew, hey hey.
     
  9. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I used A40 from Ellis a lot but it wasn’t as consistent as I would have liked. The way I’m playing today is looking for two wins in a row. That’s it. Should be easy to do, but it hasn’t been.
     
  10. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Glad to see Glen reading my posts. Not allowed to respond to his long winded tangential posts but no, Glen, Turning Points not directly related to cause and effect but the implication still the same. By definition a turning point means something that went before has now stopped so the implication is that something different will now occur going forward. IOW, past events have an effect on future events. So after you get a turning point you bet for something different, no?
     
  11. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Is A40 System 40?
     
  12. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Good to see some BTC peeps here. OTBL (OPP. TIME BEFORE LAST); SS (SINGLE SIDE); MC (MOST COMMON EVENT) for those who may not know. How many bets per shoe do you get on average? Maybe McVince uses FTS (FOLLOW THE SHOE) as a reference or additional bet as well.
    Makes sense to play what you see, right?​

    I don't use counts. Though McVince feels the unweighted count has more accuracy in determining the bias I'm not convinced it does more than tell you what's gone by. Perhaps Turning Points, which exist as everyone knows, is also a good measure to interrupt or change betting.

    As McVince mentions with these methods everyone plays a little differently. This suggest subjectivity which is ultimately what you want to avoid.

    J
     
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  13. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Jim - yes it is one and the same.
     
  14. Xytras

    Xytras Member

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    McVince is right! Everyone plays differently. Its almost like you have to find your own niche. I maybe one of 5 people in the world who absolutely hates betting on single side streaks...unless its a Strong Side. I absolutely despise TBL(Time Before Last) where you have to lose 2 bets iar to find out the bias is over.

    As per count, I do it visually considering I only exploit two biases (Strong Side and OTBL), plus a chop of singles if an occasion calls for it. I mean, its easy to spot it on a display board if a shoe produces enough TTs and Treys...a sign of a strong OTBL bias. The kicker for me is, I only bet OPPs if I am on OTBL and never a repeat because to me its not a good proposition to lose twice on a same bias. If a 2 that I want to bet against goes to 3iar (thus I lost a bet), I stop right there and wait for another OTBL opportunity at a same table or not. If it's a SS that develops, I try to win twice iar off a single on a SS unless a SS is really going jiggy.

    And I use 1-1.5 PP loop with a Win Goal of 3 units ( 100$ a Unit). Once a goal is reached, I cut my bet unit in half (50$) and keep going till first loss. But it also helps that my casino in Toronto has over a half dozen of tables so its perfect for Hit-and-Run
     
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