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Forex ForexMart's Forex News

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by Andrea ForexMart, Jan 18, 2018.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    16.03. China showed worst economic performance in 30 years

    Since the beginning of 2020, the Chinese economy has experienced the most severe recession in the last 30 years, caused by the rapidly spreading coronavirus and aggressive measures to contain it. Industrial production, retail sales and investments in the country's economy have fallen enormously.

    Industrial output in January-February fell even more than analysts had expected – by 13.5% compared to the same period last year. Such indicators were the weakest since January 1990.

    Investments in fixed assets fell by 24.5% compared with last year's statistics. Investments in the private sector decreased by 26.4%. Retail sales sales declined 20.5% per year.

    China's unemployment rate is also updating multi-year highs. The indicator rose to 6.2%, becoming the highest since the publication of official reports in 1990.

    Chinese analysts note that the shock to the Chinese economy from the coronavirus epidemic was even stronger than the global financial crisis. Experts are sure that the policy of the central government should be aimed at preventing large-scale bankruptcies and unemployment.
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  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    17.03. Philippines is the first in the world to close the stock market due to coronavirus

    Today, the Philippine Stock Exchange closed indefinitely, and trading in foreign currency and bonds was suspended. This was the world's first market closure in response to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

    The Philippine Stock Exchange said the exchange work will be suspended until further notice in order to ensure the safety of employees and traders. And foreign exchange trading will resume from March 18.

    Analysts suggest that other countries may follow the Philippines, given the rapid speed of falling stock prices. If the situation does not change in the near future, stock exchanges around the world may begin to suspend their activities.

    Recall that concerns about the coronavirus epidemic led to a collapse in world markets and investors had to sell even protective assets, such as gold, to cover losses
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  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    18.03. World oil storage facilities may overflow in coming months

    Energy experts fear that global oil storages may overflow during several months due to falling demand for oil because of coronavirus. Forecasts suggest a sharp drop in oil demand, as industrialized countries are isolated, and large cities are taking decisive measures in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus.

    Traders such as Gunvor predict that oil demand may fall by at least 5 million bpd (5% of global demand) in April when the OPEC + agreement ends.

    At the same time, the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia will only increase the excess supply of oil on the market. It is expected that oil supplies from Saudi Arabia will grow by about a quarter, while Russia and the UAE are increasing production volumes amid a struggle for market share. In total, this may lead to a supply surplus of at least 8 million bpd.

    Consulting Eurasia Group estimated that global oil demand could fall by a quarter or 25 million bpd in spring. According to analysts, the occupancy rate of onshore oil storage facilities is now 61%, and in six months they can exhaust their capacity. In this case, traders will be forced to switch to a more expensive option for storing oil – on tankers at sea.
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  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    19.03. German business climate drops to 2009 low

    The mood in the German business community deteriorated significantly in March amid concerns about the coronavirus. Ifo's preliminary business climate index in Germany fell to 87.7 points from 96 points in February. Such indicator showed a decline to its lowest level since August 2009.

    The index of current assessment of the economy of Germany fell to 93.8 points from 99 points, and the index of measuring expectations for the next six months fell to 82 points in March from 93.2 points a month earlier. Such figures suggest that the German economy is accelerating towards recession.
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  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    20.03. US prepares for 18-month pandemic

    The coronavirus pandemic remains the main news of the day. The disease continues to spread, adversely affecting businesses and households around the world. Over the past two weeks, about 15,000 cases of Covid-19 have been reported in the United States. Experts suggest that pandemia may drag on for a year and a half.

    The House of Representatives has already received approval for a $500 billion stimulus package to tackle the pandemic. In addition, Republicans today put forward another $1 trillion aid plan in the Senate.

    Under the new bill, the government will pay monthly support to all Americans during the crisis. Many low-income families in the United States have been particularly affected by the outbreak of coronavirus because they cannot go to work and therefore cannot afford to pay bills or buy medicine.
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  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    30.03. Refineries around the world begin to suspend due to reduced demand

    Oil refineries around the world have begun to suspend production or reduce refining volumes, as fuel demand has come under serious pressure from the coronavirus pandemic.

    According to Reuters, global demand for fuel will decrease by 15-20% in the next quarter, mainly due to the cessation of most air travel around the world.

    On Friday, it became known about the shutdown of refineries in India and Italy. Factories in other countries are taking the necessary measures to reduce refining volumes, including in the USA, Great Britain and Germany.

    A decrease in the demand for petroleum products is parallel to a drop in demand for raw materials themselves. According to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for oil due to coronavirus could fall by 20 million barrels per day, and oil storage could soon be full.
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  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    31.03. Oil will remain below $40 due to coronavirus shock and OPEC + collapse

    The price of oil in 2020 will be kept below the level of $40 per barrel. This conclusion was reached by Reuters experts, having analyzed the prospects of the current situation in the world. Currently, measures to curb the global spread of coronavirus adversely affect oil demand, and the collapse of the OPEC+ contributes to an increase in the surplus of raw materials.

    Analysts expect the average Brent price to be $38.76 per barrel this year. Today, Brent and WTI are trading just above $20 a barrel. Moreover, back in January, the cost of «black gold» exceeded the current price by 70%.

    Pressure on the oil market is exerted by restrictions related to coronavirus and weakening demand, as well as the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which caused the flood of the market with raw materials.

    Experts predict that global oil demand may decline by 0.7-5.0 million barrels per day in 2020, which will be the maximum reduction since the financial crisis in 2009.
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  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    01.04. Germany and Canada will be hit hardest by world coronavirus outbreak

    Analysts believe that the economies of Germany and Canada are the most susceptible to the shocks associated with coronavirus due to their dependence on trade. The rapid proliferation of COVID-19 in the United States and the associated economic consequences can pose significant challenges for Canada. According to the Geneva International Trade Center (ITC), in 2019 Canada imported $453 billion worth of goods from the United States, including cars, equipment, and oil.

    And Germany is particularly vulnerable to production shocks because of its dependence on foreign demand for German equipment, cars and pharmaceuticals. According to ITC, in 2019 Germany exported $1.49 trillion worth of goods.

    Experts note that open economies will suffer a longer period of time from the effects of coronavirus on supply and demand. Even after the virus spread is controlled domestically, countries with open economies will continue to suffer from the effects of the virus due to falling demand in countries that are still struggling with the crisis.
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  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    06.04. Sentix: eurozone investor sentiment drops to record low

    According to Sentix analytics, investor sentiment in the eurozone fell to a record low in April, as the bloc’s economy declines in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

    The Sentix index, which measures investor confidence in the eurozone, fell to -42.9 points in April from -17.1 points in March. Analysts predicted a decline in the indicator to -30.3 points.

    Sentix Managing Director Patrick Hussey noted that the current situation is much worse than the 2009 crisis, and economic forecasts underestimate the volume of economic contraction.

    In Germany, the investor sentiment index fell to -36 points from -16.9 in March, reaching the lowest level since March 2009.
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  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    07.04. Industrial production in Germany unexpectedly increased in February

    Industrial production in Germany in February unexpectedly showed an increase. At the same time, the Ministry of Economy of Germany noted that the decline in production will still be recorded in March and April – due to the measures introduced by the authorities to combat coronavirus, which undermined business activity in the country.

    According to recent data, industrial production in February increased by 0.3% compared with January. Analysts polled by Reuters on average predicted a decline of 0.9%. Consumer goods output in Germany increased by 1.8%. At the same time, the output of capital goods fell by 0.3%.

    Experts note that Europe's largest economy has been hit hard by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and is expected to fall into recession in 2020.
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  11. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Europe will need €500 billion to fight against coronavirus effects

    Eurozone finance ministers held a videoconference, during which they expected to agree on the main issues of the plan to restore the economies of the region in the amount of €500 billion. The meeting and discussions lasted 16 hours, negotiations will continue tomorrow, April 9.

    Eurogroup Chairman Mario Centenu noted that the negotiations have come to their logical conclusion, but an agreement on a number of issues has not yet been reached. In particular, disagreements between Italy and the Netherlands on the conditions under which loans should be provided to eurozone countries to combat the pandemic prevented progress in the negotiations.

    The plan for supporting and restoring the economies of European countries will become the largest in the history of the European Union and its implementation will allow us to overcome the global crisis without losses.

    The recovery program involves financing schemes to protect jobs (€ 100 billion), the European Investment Bank's business support program (€ 200 billion), and a program to support the most vulnerable states (up to € 240 billion).
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  12. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    09.04. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States sets records

    According to the US Department of Labor, in the first week of April, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 261 thousand from the previous week's revised figure of 6.867 million and amounted to 6.606 million. In just the last three weeks, applications for this social payment came from 16.7 million people.

    From March 2019 to March 2020, the total number of applications filed was only 11.5 million.

    Analysts had expected a decrease in the number of applications of 1.398 million from the previous week's previous level of 6.648 million.
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  13. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    10.04. EU agrees €500 billion rescue package

    The finance ministers of the European Union (EU) have agreed on a plan to save the bloc’s economy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic and economic crisis worth more than 500 billion euros.

    In particular, within the framework of the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM), about 240 billion euros will be allocated to those states that have suffered the most from the coronavirus pandemic and which are members of the euro area. 200 million euros will go to lending to European enterprises with an emphasis on small and medium-sized businesses, and about 100 billion euros will go to a wage subsidy scheme so that companies do not cut their employees.

    After the decision of the finance ministers, this plan should be approved at a meeting of the European Council, the highest political body of the EU.
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  14. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    13.04. Saudi Arabia continues the price war

    Saudi Arabia again went against its colleagues under the OPEC+ agreement and seems to have decided to continue the price war. Despite a deal concluded over the weekend to further reduce oil production, the Kingdom announced today that it is increasing discounts on its oil.

    For example, the cost of a barrel of Arab Super Light in the Asian market is lower by $5.5 than in other regions. For Northern Europe, discounts will remain the same, but the southern countries of the Old World will be able to count on an increase in discount. Compared to the Brent price, the Saudi Arab Extra Light will cost $10.3 less.

    Thus, despite OPEC's efforts to stabilize the oil market, the historic deal to reduce production remains so far only in theory. To see a more or less fair value, it is necessary to wait until quarantine measures are lifted in many countries.
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  15. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    14.04. China's GDP growth in 2020 may slow to a 44-year low

    According to analysts, China's economic growth may slow to a minimum in almost half a century due to the crisis in many areas caused by the coronavirus epidemic.

    In particular, the world's second largest economy can grow by only 2.5%, at the lowest rate since 1976. For example, last year, China's GDP increased by 6.1%.

    Despite the fact that the Chinese government has begun to gradually ease restrictive quarantine measures, economic recovery is not expected in the coming months. Experts predict the loss of nearly 30 million jobs amid falling global demand.

    In addition to the measures already taken, the People's Bank of China intends to reduce the required reserve ratio (RRR) for banks by another 100 basis points, as well as reduce the annual loan rate for first-class borrowers (loan prime rate, LPR) by 35 basis points to 3.70% by the end of 2020.
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  16. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    15.04. US suspended World Health Organization financing

    US President Donald Trump announced that the United States is completing funding for the World Health Organization (WHO). In his opinion, the organization was unable to cope with its duties and functions during the coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, Trump accused WHO of concealing data on the spread of the disease.

    The head of the White House also noted that the United States will look for alternative ways to work with other countries on health issues. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has supported Donald Trump's criticism of the World Health Organization, but saying that Australia will continue to make contributions.

    According to Morrison, WHO did not pay due attention to the problem of the virus during its first appearance in China and did not take appropriate measures. Donald Trump also accused the organization of opposing the US decision to close the border with China.

    Many countries criticized the decision of the American president.
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  17. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    16.04. Another 5.2 million Americans file for unemployment

    According to the US Department of Labor, the number of American citizens applying for unemployment benefits for the first time for the week ending April 11 was 5.245 million. The Ministry notes that Americans continue to massively apply for unemployment benefits for the fourth consecutive week.

    The previous value was fixed at 6.615 million. Analysts had expected a decrease in the number of applications to 5.1 million.

    Over the past month, more than 20 million applications have been filed amid the tough measures to combat the spread of coronavirus. The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits for the week ending April 4 increased by 4.53 million to a record 12 million.

    Last month, the US economy lost 701 thousand jobs. As a result, in March unemployment jumped from 3.5% to 4.4%, peaking since August 2017. According to forecasts by Morgan Stanley, US unemployment will only continue to grow in the II quarter and will reach a record level of 15.7%.
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  18. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    20.04. China lowered key rate for the second time since the beginning of the year

    Today China for the second time since the beginning of the year lowered lending rates to support the economy and the population affected by the coronavirus. The annual loan rate for first-class borrowers (LPR) has been reduced from 4.05% to 3.85%. The five-year rate affecting the cost of mortgages has been reduced from 4.75% to 4.65%.

    Earlier, on April 15, the Central Bank lowered the rate on loans issued under the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) mechanism from 3.15% to 2.95% to reduce the cost of borrowing for companies. This level has become minimal since the introduction of the liquidity instrument in September 2014. Also, under the MLF, the regulator provided loans for one year in the amount of 100 billion yuan ($14.19 billion).

    Recall that China's GDP in the I quarter of 2020 fell for the first time in 28 years – by 6.8% (to 20.65 trillion yuan).
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  19. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    21.04. Oil market collapses again

    The situation in the oil market has again become the focus of attention of traders. For the first time in history, the price of WTI crude oil fell below zero (- $40 per barrel). This means that oil sellers are ready to pay extra to the buyer in order to get rid of crude.

    Brent crude oil today collapsed to around $19 per barrel, updating multi-year lows. Pressure on quotes continues to be exerted by a catastrophic drop in demand due to the economic damage caused by the coronavirus epidemic, as well as an increase in supply.

    The collapse of prices continues, despite the recently concluded new OPEC+ deal, according to which the producing countries will reduce production by 9.7 million barrels per day. As practice has shown, these measures have proved futile in the face of an oversupply in the oil market. OPEC estimates that about 14.7 million barrels per day may be unclaimed in the second quarter of the year. As a result, sales in the oil market may continue in the near future.
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  20. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    22.04. UK March inflation slows to 1.5%

    According to the National Statistical Office (ONS) of Great Britain, consumer prices in March rose by 1.5% year on year compared with the February figure of 1.7%. Analysts had forecast inflation to fall to 1.5%.

    However, it is worth considering the fact that these statistics were collected even before the large-scale restriction of economic activity in the country, so they do not reflect the current situation.

    The slowdown in inflation last month was primarily due to a decrease in the price of automotive fuel (by 5.1%) and clothing (by 0.3%). Food prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 1.3% on an annualized basis.

    Core inflation (excluding food, alcohol, tobacco and energy, CPI Core) rose 1.6% after rising 1.7% a month earlier.
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