Baccarat How to maximize profit on a Dominant (P, B biased) portion of a shoe?

For the purpose of this post, let's assume one is already successfully detected and jumped on a Dominant portion of a shoe (either P or B biased). Question is how to maximize profit here?
In the past I've tried a few ways but recently I've thought of this (not tested yet):
-Few flat bets at beginning to confirm one side is still dominating.
-If won, do a 1-2 parlay bets (slight increase in Unit size if it's going good) to maximize profit. (Should I be more aggressive here, if let's say, win 4-5 hands to 1 loss, by doing 1-2-4 or even 1-2-2-2 and keep on riding?)
-Within this portion, of course I'll lose a few hands to the weaker side, then I'll implement a 2-step negative Martingale (or should it be 3-step, risking 7 units?).

I'm not a fan of betting every hand, (actually I'm very selective in BS, far and few in between), so I feel like I wasn't able to really capitalize on these portions of a shoe. Lot of profit potential here, if play right.

How have you played these portions of a shoe, Money Management wise?

 

I like what you’re trying to accomplish. I personally have found that dominant side ends up going away especially if using a parlay. Whereas taking the flat bets is ideal, a short Marty might be the answer because like what you just said, you will lose to the weak side. Maybe more than you like as the dominant side starts to fade and “even the score” from the weak side.

 

Forums are not the answer.

 

Personally, I can't think of anything worse than losing a parleyed bet. It really messes with your head than you have just turned a positive into a negative.

As for dominant side, this is all after the event observations. You do know there is no-correlational between the next hand and last series of hands? Observing a score board is like looking at the past, it's gone, it may or may not continue, each time it does, equally it won't

 

Right on point. If anyone is going to learn anything from betting on the continuation of a trend or pattern they should learn how to live with just one or at most two flat bet wins. Everything ends and almost always sooner rather than later. Just take the one win from a trend. It's more than enough. If you can get just three net wins advantage you are doing great for a session. People just can't figure that out though.

 

Yes I'm fully aware that any given hand on running trends might end abruptly without notice. Especially when it's happening you can never tell for sure. Having said that, there are portions where it's strongly biased toward one side.
The trick is to identify it early enough, not when it's starting to end.

Maybe I should be more clear when asking the question. I was referring to dominant portions of shoes in the past where I was winning majority of hands (probably 4-5 Ws to 1 L). However, I was at fault for winning a few flat-unit bets, then decide to do a "loaded" bet out of nowhere on a "looking very good" hand, and since it's 50/50 it seems to bust even more often than not.
What I'm frustrated about is that on the same table, other players are Ahead by a lot, they usually Cash out after such portions. Whereas I'm ended up even or losing a little. It killed me a little inside each and every time.
So I guess I was asking for anyone of you here who had prior success feasting on those portions of the shoe. (Those are a little more aggressive in attacking those DOM portions, versus someone who's conservative with a tight MM.)
In fact I decide to hone/sharpen that week area of my game on this very next trip...

 

Have you tried Patrick’s Up and Pull? With that if you win a 1st bet in a that specific series, you can not lose that particular series of bets. And it still allows you to increase your bets if you’re lucky enough to catch a long streak.

2-1-2-3-4-5...or it’s a same thing as 1-0.5-1-1.5-2-2.5...

You can cap it at 5 (2.5) or keep pressing further...up to each individual

 

I guess that’s my point that was lost in the shuffle. How do you identify it early? I really don’t think you can. And at any given hand it can change right away. Dominance is shown long after someone can pick it up.

 

If you want a positive progression then I suggest only trying it during a strong swarm of longer lasting trends. There is also the stacked progression. Take 5 units and let 1 go one spin, one go two spins, one go three spins etc... You just let them all double down for each step. That way you have a let it ride progression that is also an up & pull.

 

The same applies, there is no trick, you can only "look back" and say, "I just won 6 in a row", not "I'm now gonna win 6 in a row".

I don't play "increase as you win". If you want to play that way, as Gizmo said, snare a few flat bet wins, then increase so as to protect the first win, such as; 1-1-2-3-4-5, I haven't found that positive progressions offer anything over flat betting or negative progressions. At the end of the day, it's your money, to use as you wish. In regards to other players, yeah I've seen that myself and beaten myself up in the moment for not having run with something obvious. However it's the long term I'm interested in, not the occasional lucky win streak.

 

If you consider a singular isolated long streak on one side in a sea of chops and two's, then yeah, nobody can know that. But I don't consider that type of an event a dominance. I can only share the way I see the game (and play it). The Dominance ( or Strong Side) is not about one side being strong, its about the other side BEING WEAK! So for a purpose of discussion let's say an atypical event has occurred in a given shoe where P side went on long run, say 8iar. I wouldn't beat myself up too much that I've "missed" it because as I said earlier nobody can predict that! I am more curious how the other side (B) will respond. If B only singled or doubled after a P streak, and a next P even went on to at least 3iar, that's what I am looking for! That's what I consider a Dominance and where I jump on (after 3 iar). Sure, this 2d P event may end up at 3 iar...but then again, it may go on. And even if does break at 3 iar, keep an eye on what B is doing. If it singles or doubles again, then on a next P outcome I'd jump on it right away.

Just to note in a situation like this: PPP B PPP, don't jump on. I'd want to see at least PPPP in a first P event. However if you have: PPP B PPP B P, in this situation by all means jump right away on a 3d player event but only for two bets ( if you win a 1st bet), because while P is strong on this section of a shoe, it doesn't really justify going past 3iar because two previous P events ended at 3iar. So if a board reads PPP B PPP B PPP, take a free card and if last P event goes to 4iar, then I'd continue bet on P hoping for a longer streak...and stay on it till B goes to 3iar or P singles out

 

Thanks. This is exactly what I was referring to as a "DOM" portion of a particular shoe (mind you, NOT every shoe). Let me give a few more examples:
BBB P BBBBB PP BB P BBB P BB P BBBB
I've experienced even more 1-side biased too, though not as often.
As for how to "detect" these portions as it's happening, I pay attention to a few factors/triggers:
-At least last five hands it's 4 to 1 tilted to one side.
-How "easy" the strong side win, as well as how "weak" it is on the weak side.
Ex: Bank keeps drawing 6 or above, Player keeps drawing 2 or 3 and third card can't seem to improve, even reduce.
-Some type of patterns like above start forming.

I'm sure each one of us has experienced such portions of the shoe, so the discussion should not be "you never know what's going to happen on next hand", which I totally agreed. But for the sake of this discussion, let's ASSUME we're in middle of it. And as we can see in above example, there are hands when we lose to the weaker Player hands. What I was struggling with before is that it seems like those sucker Player hands cost me the most. So I'm inquiring about some MM strategies to where I can maximize on the strong biased side, but at the same time minimize on those expected sucker bets (on the weaker side).
What I'm also interested in knowing is how would one deal with those expected Losses, by doing a 2 or 3 step Neg Prog?
If 3 steps, then it's 1-2-4 (risking 7 units), taking on a chance that the weaker side doesn't bounce back strong right THERE and THEN.
It's a little risky but I saw that people have done so, PLUS pressing on the strong side, have yielded great RETURNS.

Last thing, I also value Long-term success over short-term gains too. But like I said, I'd like to improve this part of my game to where I can maximize on the profit potential... in other words, I'd like to capitalize on when the game is "Easy", when the opportunities are there. Not having to fight a hard battle every time. And I'll always be cautious of the impending change of the shoe. So I won't allow myself to go beyond the 1-2-4 neg progress, if I get there.
Thanks for all the feedbacks though. Looking for more...

 

Thank you, Play2Win, for starting a rather interesting discussion regarding "domination" play.

I've been playing this game for years, and, without a doubt, playing and betting for "doms" is the most vital aspect of my overall approach to my winning strategy.

While it is very true that "prior decisions prove no guarantee" to the future results in any given shoe (or section thereof), I believe it to be of utmost importance to realize that there simply are no "guarantees" to be had in any casino game. If there were, the casino would've pulled this game ages ago....witness the changes made to casino Blackjack upon the release of Thorpe's counting strategies.

That all said, I also believe that in any "even chance" game there comes inherent opportunities where one side is simply "getting the better of" its counterpart (read: winning the bulk of the current decisions). In the game of Baccarat, it's simply common knowledge that there are times when either the Banker or the Player side is dominating the current results; and so the question now becomes, just as Play2Win has inquired, how best to profit from this rather common phenomenon.

Well, first and foremost, it takes both Patience and Discipline. Why?: Because the bulk of the shoe's results will NOT reveal any profitable dominations. Most of the results are rather "chaotic", and, in my book, rendered "unplayable". What to do during those chaotic times? Easy: that's where the Patience and Discipline come into play. Me? I utilize my "no-bet" option.

OK. So now that I've honed my play into looking for only certain proven trends (read: proven = potentially profitable), of which my "dom" play is the most preferred, it all basically boils down to both the "when" and the "how". Doms will appear (and doms can come in more forms that just B vs P) but recognizing them at the earliest point possible is of paramount importance in order to secure a quick "profit point"....once that is achieved, the "how" always falls neatly into place.

Playing this way eliminates the need for any linear progressions. I much prefer to "lock up" my profit from any impending dom rather than risk much-too-much by hoping for an extended continuance.

Please note: That is not to say that I don't continue to bet into the dom. I do. Why? Because just as much as we can never be sure any dom will continue, we can never be sure as to when it will flame out. So I will ride the dom out. How long? Easy: That depends on my profit point from that particular dom at that time. If I've profited 5 or more units, I'm not off of it until 2 consecutive losses. If I've profited 3 or less, I'm off at first loss. Either way, LOCKING PROFIT is KEY.

OK. So when do I first detect any potential dom? Easy: I look more towards the "weak" side than I do the "strong" side. My eyes get "trigger-happy" when I see one side or the other only "singling". (I'd refer you to my thread "Domination Anticipation", where I speak of "gap allowances", where you're basically basing your play off of the instances of the "weaker" side.)

Another form of my dom play? Any "new top". Example: One side or the other has seen their streaks stopping at, say, 3. If I see that side hit the "4-hole" (read: a new 4-streak), I'll bet for that streak to continue. And, even after the first loss, if that other side only singles, I'll go right back onto that dom side if it happens to double (read: hit the "2-hole").

With all this said, please know that I maintain rather strict win goals and loss limits. Why is that? Because I'm playing this game long enough to know both its limitations and, frankly, mine. My goal is to win. Get my few units and get out. Nothing...NOTHING...is more damaging to both our bankrolls and our psyches than turning a winning session into a losing one.

If you're patient and disciplined enough, your preferred plays will appear. Wait for them and then bet accordingly. Lose? Sit back and await its next appearance. Lose again? Sit back and await its next appearance. Do not be discouraged. Trust in your plays and, even more importantly, trust in yourself. Patience and Discipline are the order of the day.

And, as always, I wish it for all of you. Stay safe and stay well.

 

Aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrgggggghhhhhhhhhhh, some of you cats are killin me, I'm dyin over here, hey hey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Hi gr8player, thank you for your detailed post. I'm fairly new to these gambling forums, but recently I've come across some of your posts and really enjoyed it. In fact, on my phone for the past weeks I've had all your posts listing that I came in to read a few at a time. I came to realize that my game at this point is similar to yours on many aspects (conservative, "virtual bets", very subjective BS - mostly base on Selective Trending, protect and enjoy small wins...) Of course when it comes to BS, I don't think I'm there at your level yet. Even though I've also played baccarat for years, my turn-around point didn't happen until about 5 months ago. Before that it was horrible. But I hope the experience I've gained so far and the upswing results will be there to stay. Reading your posts (and some others) are quite refreshing during this downtime because many things you guys have said/preached really strengthen my new-found belief in the game of baccarat.

Back to the topic, since I'm very Selective in my BS now, I almost always bet on strongly preferred hands that I truly believe will WIN for me. So even on those Dom sections, even though many times I was able to detect them, I just wasn't armed myself with the right MM and betting techniques to really capitalize on that. Many times during those Dom sections, I caught myself juggling between being conservative in BS (betting a few hands) like usual and betting more hands out of my comfort zone (to maximize profit). It usually doesn't end well. So now I'm making a conscious effort to correct/better that part of my game. I'll try some of the suggestions here this weekend (1st time back after Covid) and will update on how it goes.
Thanks again.

 

Good for you, Play2Win....you're actively attempting to correct a part of your play that you feel is lacking....good for you!

Just know this, my friend....it affects us all....we are FOREVER trying to perfect our Baccarat play.

That said, I think you'll get to a much better place in your head when you learn to accept the fact that there's NO SUCH THING as "perfect play".

Look, I get what you're saying about "dom" play....you're witnessing fellow players at the table "cleaning up" on these rather advantageous sections of the shoe, and you're feeling a bit "left out" and, frankly, a bit inadequate. Know this: its happened to me, and its happened to everyone; so it's not just you. So when you state above that "it usually doesn't end well", I think you're just comparing yourself and your results against what a couple of other players accomplished within those same decisions.

Let me tell you....LET IT GO. You're stressing yourself over absolutely nothing....EVERY player plays differently and bets differently. Baccarat is not a "me versus you" game; rather, it's more of a "you versus you" game....so it's imperative to get your head straight.

There exists no perfect way to play for doms, but there does exist ways to profit from them. "Profit" is the key word there, and "perfect" is the fallacy.

Keep your goals conservative. Lock up your profits on your doms. Learn to "walk a win". Make it a habit.

In sessions that appear to go "sideways" on you, where your preferred plays are simply not hitting, your goal then becomes to minimize the loss and "walk it" as well. Yeah, it's much tougher to walk a loss, but you need to learn that as well; all with the realization that you'll win more sessions than you'll lose if you remain composed (read: Patience and Discipline).

Good luck in your play this weekend, Play2Win; and stay safe and stay well, all.

 

I love it when you can see anything that is in a state of continuing. Chaos is a form of a pattern in that it looks to be without form. I would never use a progression of any type to beat it. But all you have to do is ask yourself what would chaos do next if it where to continue. There would be an absence of singles gathered together. There would be and absence of singles & doubles gathered together. But it sure would not dominate in a repeat function either. There are ways to grind away and get a few wins in stretches like this. The total absence of form is information too. And since you see a lot of that when domination is scarce you can actually train yourself to use it. Just lay low and play small bets but also try to win a few $. I'm always looking for anything that continues to keep occurring, including chaos.

 

Considering the current table minimums even the up and pull progression might need a revision .

Any options ?

 

Trip Report regarding Doms

I've had 2 sessions playing Live baccarat at a casino so far (more detailed Trip reports at my other thread). Here I just want to mentioned about the Dom parts. During the sessions, thoughts about "Dom" did appear in my mind. What I did was testing myself on whether I can successful identify/detect those portions. And I was able to successfully detect some Dom instances (as it is happening, not after-the-fact). To me, a Dom is either a B/P streak (6-9 IRAs) or a section where it's 10-15 hands biased on one side compare to 2-3 hands on the other side. At that point I was temping to bet/act on it, however I wasn't on my best gambling mode, I just tuned/zoned out and let them went by.
There was one particular section where P has went:
PPPP B PPPPP B PPPPP BB (I joined here) then it became 2 more bankers, then P BB (at this point I've told myself, "seems like B is taking its turn now, and the window will be short, better hop on B now" - even flat betting). However, I chose not to.
Sure enough B went on to came out 14-3 in the next 17 hands.
Have I listen to my "gut" B-biased anticipation at that point and flat bet, I'd come out +11 on that section.
Later on, I came across another:
A B streak. Previously on same shoe, there was a few B streaks already, then it went single B for a little while (4 times to be exact), then B went 3 IAR, at that point I remembered thinking: "let's risk 1 or 2 units here and keep on riding it for a little while, seems like another streak is looming".... Yet I sat through it all and didn't bet a single hand.
This time, that B streak went on 9 times. So again, have I listen to my "gut" anticipation and let's say just flat-bet, I'd have won 6 hands (after the 3rd hand) and lost the 10th hand when the streak ended... I'll still be +5 units on that section.

So personal lessons that I've learned on this trip (2 sessions) on playing Dom:
1) It's a little harder to bet the Dom as "it is developing", and of course much easier to reflect after-the-fact.
I just need to bite the bullet and bet there, should not be gun shy at all, Because worst case is:
-On streak: I will only risk 1 unit, to potentially win a Few, if not more. --> Minimum risk.
-On a strong biased section to one side: I will only risk 3 units max (if flat bet). Because for example, if I "think" that B is dominating, and after my 3 bets, if it's at least 2W1L for B, I'll continue on betting on B and ride it out (until any 3 last bets became 1W2L or even 3L for B, then I'll stop). ---> Minimal risk (3 units max) to potentially gain 5-10+ units depends on how strong that Dom section is.

2) Since Dom isn't part of my betting arsenal yet, I'll need to start getting used to be betting it. I'll try to make a conscious effort to bet on it next time.
Cheers.