Misc A math Question

I ask this question, because I have no advanced math background. Its more of a comment..and i was hoping someone with math background can poke holes in it or agee. Its asked with good intentions. Here it is.

I always thought the the house advantage had also to do with the fact that the casino had the big advantage of playing for tens of thousands of hours and millions of hands/spins/dice throws. ....making the math "play out" into their advantage. In the short run, even though they have the mathmatical advantage, ..they need the long run to make it a sure thing.

Now we come to APs that say that for example they may try to exploit a situation that would give them a 100.25 advantage at a machine(maybe more it doesnt matter the actual advantage)
So since they are not playing for larger amounts of spins/ hands etc ......can they make that 100.25 percent pan out like the casino does with their advantage of playing 24/7?

Doesnt the AP play, like the casino, not only need the math in their favor, but also the frequency of plays?

 

They do need the math, and they have it.

I'm no pro (or even a player), so forgive the ignorance and my bit of guesswork. But VP is looked at in "cycles", which is basically the amount of hands needed (per the math) to hit "something" (can't remember if that's the Royal or just to hit all the different combinations). I recall for one of the more popular games a cycle is approx 42k hands. Though that's quite a lot of hands IMO, there's probably folks who can do that in a long weekend.

So yeah, they do need the frequency of plays. But the frequency needed is attainable.

 

If someone plays 7 hands per minute, thats 8400 hands in 20 hours.......not close to 42k

 

7 is quite low, I believe. When speaking of speed, serious guys are usually up around 800 hand p/hr, or twice as fast as that. So, though a marathon I want no part of, 42k is possible over a long weekend. Easily done over a week.

 

thanks,
Another math question for the masses...on calculating the odds of an event

If I walk up to a roulette table and observe number 26 come in 3 times in a row...I am guessing the odds of that would be 1/38x/1/38x1/38

However if I walk up to the table and bet number 26.........and it comes out 3 times in a row......are the odds of that happening the above multiplied by another 1/38?...because I actually has to select that number?

 

Your wording is confusing me. I'll try, you tell me if it's what you're asking...

You walk up to a table. You observe 26 happen 3 times in a row. To calculate the odds of that happening, yes, it's 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 (00 wheel)
You walk up to a table. You place a bet on 26 and 26 happens three times in a row. Same odds. Your bet has not effect.

 

let me ask this then..is there different odds for the following
what are the chances of 26 coming in 3 times in a row
what are the chances of me selecting 26 and having it come in 3 times in a row

in one case it happens without me making a choice. In the other case i have to make a selection. For example I can select "35" and 26 can come in 3 times in a row. I can selct "2" and 26 can come in 3 times in a row. So wouldnt the 2 above questions have different answers?

 

Nope. Every number on the wheel has the same odds of happening, happening twice in a row, thrice, etc. You pick it, I pick it, nobody picks it, it's all the same. 1/38, for every number, for every spin, every time. Assuming fair ball and wheel, of course.

Is there a reason for the query? I might be able to bang that out immediately, if you pose it.

 

no,I am not well schooled in statistics and higher math....so I was just wondering if there were different odds for an event happining and higher odds of me picking the exact number event. I understand the response. In my shoes only a fool would try to argue the point . thanks for the answer.

 

Well, then this is clearly a case of the blind leading the blind lol. I just happen to be a bit savvy in this sort of stuff due to my time working for the casino. But by "a bit", I really mean A BIT. Not only no higher training, but difficulty even at HS level.

Just keep in mind that this type of math is very sensitive to minute details.You change or omit the tiniest bit and it can change your answer drastically, hence my specific repetition of what seemed a simple question.