Sports Betting ATP Plays for April 26th

Egor Gerasimov v John Millman
John Millman recovered in Serbia to get his clay-court footing after a disappointing tournament in Monte Carlo. The Aussie got past a rusty Dominic Thiem before putting up a great fight against the in-form Miomir Kecmanovic, who went on to take a set-off of Novak Djokovic before ultimately falling to the world No. 1.

Over the two weeks, Millman has amassed an 84% Hold Rate — which is very solid — but he’s only totaled a 16% break rate, a touch disappointing on the surface. With that being said, his opponent Egor Gerasimov has only garnered an 80% hold rate and 17% break rate over this clay swing. The Belarusian has garnered solid qualifying wins over the two weeks, but I’m not entirely sure why he’s being priced as a favorite like this.

Millman looked equal in level to Gerasimov, and the two have never met before. Millman has a clay Elo Rating of 1602 — over 100 points better than his counterpart — and he has the consistent ball-striking ability to deal with Gerasimov’s aggression and force errors out of him.

Gerasimov did find access against a similar player in style in Cameron Norrie, but the Brit is coming back from a bit of an injury and hasn’t been at his best recently. A fully fit Millman presents a different challenge, and it’s hard to understand why Gerasimov is getting this credit.

Play —— John Millman ML +107