Roulette Base Unit Progression Scheme built above the Extended Parachute Progression

thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

Upon @Median Joe's suggestion, I am dedicating its own thread to it,
sourcing all the pertaining pre-existing posts here first.

thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

Beyong the threads intended context, but since mentioned gonna ask here

From Wikipedia link:
View attachment 18236

Would the formula for this https://stackoverflow.com/questions...ntense-points-in-the-fluctuation-of-frequency be found herein, the equiprobable law (keywords: the sum of energy, density)
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

@Benas, as an example .. in advanced physics, the guys are calculating the density of sparks flying about when buffing and cutting steel .. amongst many other things, like thermodynamics (1st, 2nd, .., order of change/transition) -- in statistics, you could calculate the expected highest density of burst of the 'q event' .. using for example what .. ?? integrals ??

must be some merging of disciplines in an advanced way to get the proper formula, or are you saying that its not possible at all!? you are a mather ..
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

Benas said: ↑

Maybe the guys do that, but for me, that is absolutely not interesting. Some calculate how fly sparks - others win on roulette - every do his own choice...

If you really are interested in such things what question you posted, then with your head possible are problems...

Here is a roulette forum and your question are very very far from it.

I was talked recently, maybe with sir AA, that there is a kind of paradox on the forums - many attacks those who are likely to win .
Why?
If attackers are players and they lose, then attacking winners is illogical, because they don't benefit from that...

If attackers are players and they win, it is even more illogical to attack other winners, because you can exchange opinions, discuss and benefit.
It turns out that only those who are not players can attack, and there is some logic in that.

However, everyone here says that they are players...paradox ...
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

Funny enough, you attack others attempting to talk down on them .. pretty much most of the time.

Given you are a mather, your last response is the same shit .. you can't do it .. shit of mather in short, interested or not.
Physics as you know overlap with roulette, so fo different scientific disciplines.
The point is its possible to calculate with some advanced formula & its useful to me & my approach,
which you have proven you cannot comprehend anyway.

Anyway, a simple question & an idiotic answer.
Next time keep you\r shitty remarks to yourself, & don;t okay god .. coz you ain't .. far from it.
A simple NO suffices.
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

Median Joe said: ↑

And neither, it seems, can anyone else.

https://stackoverflow.com/questions...ntense-points-in-the-fluctuation-of-frequency

Not a single reply, not even a comment. There are some very smart people on stackoverflow and to get no response at all is unusual. I suggest the reason for that is because nobody has a clue what you're talking about.
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

Do you?

& if not, as every rational person or individual (can't say really which, but tilting towards first) .. rather than lowering your standards emotionally bashing, if the language & terminology used does not resonate with you understanding & how your mind operates, you would inquire first into the details, do your due diligence to bring the thing closer to & clearer .. in other words, spend or better invest your precious energy that way;

but, on contrary, you decided not to .. & the result is your above posts.

.

Very predictable.

.

As far as the 'smart people' & 'educated' goes .. many simply getting a notion that its about roulette, that fact alone either clouds their judgment.. or they simply get short-circuited in the mind to their foregone conclusion about it .. "not to waste their time" on something that's supposed -EV.

Also predictable.

.

Not that I expect anything from you either.
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

@Median Joe
if you can calculate the AVERAGE 1-p= q event' in a certain interval of spins;
then you can calculate the MAX too in that same interval of spins too, that simple.

Random is tensegral, frequency has a spectrum;
since the frequency change in roulette = of such events due to random ain't constant or linear (eg. sin, cos) --
thereof naturally the frequency has a density spectrum.

.

Since the random is tensegral ≈ has some sort of limits that categorize/qualify it as random,
the change of amplitude (=vector) of frequency travels within a certain spectrum ..
& what want to be known is how frequently can 'q events' burst closeby,
or appear close together.

.

Ain't rocket science, innit?

====

& to put things into perspective .. an event ain't a spin,
but one game till positive that can range & stretch from 1 to over towards ≈200+ spins,
obviously contingent on the exposition turning into profit.

As you can see on the images all the games won ie. 620 games or events;
only one game went beyond the exposition mark of (-150).

Killing two birds with one stone:
• getting rid of the longest, most extreme games,
• in purpose to (nearly) maximize the compounding effect of the base unit
.. by keeping the bankroll vs session profit ratio at 1.5:1 or 1:1
(150u bankroll : +100u session profit) --

hypothetically, the games going beyond (-150) unit mark would be terminated,
thus cutting short the very rare extreme games by default;
in our case, that's 1 in 620 games.

.

This gives us the AVERAGE expectancy for the 'q event' -- 0.1613%.
What wants to be known is the MAX density of frequency these events are expected to appear close together -- or how many of 'q events' are expected over the interval of 140 or 210 events

.

Why 140 or 210!?

Because the average session is ≈50 games, that ranges from 25-70 pretty much.

Taking the top of the range figure --

if the (1-2) 2-step Marti is applied to the base unit, the MAX 'q event' density must not exceed one appearance in 140 events; conversely, in the case of (1-2-4) 3-step base unit Marti applied, 'q event' cannot exceed 2 appearances in 210 events.

For the Marti execution to be successful session-over-session.

=======

True, I don't have a math/physics/statistics background, so my language & terms utilized can be a bit off with the consensus, plus the presented is conceptually multi-level, if not multi-dimensional ..

.. nonetheless, I don't know what's so hard to understand about this!?
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

@Median Joe
https://stackoverflow.com/questions...ntense-points-in-the-fluctuation-of-frequency
https://mathforums.com/t/distribution-the-most-intense-point-in-the-fluctuation-of-frequency.364072/
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

Median Joe said: ↑

Are you betting the even chances and want to know the length of the longest losing streak? or do you want to know the probability (how many numbers covered) such that the longest losing streak is 3?

For the former, there is no theoretical MAX, only decreasing probabilities than losing runs of increasing length will occur.
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

No, the betting ranges from 3EC to a single ST bet .. as an extended & pretty much by now perfected parachute;
that's why its possible to get into +200 spins on rare game occasions with such a low bankroll & still come in profit = events.

One such game is an event.

There were 620 of them.

The hypothetical case is reducing the bankroll & terminating the game, if & when on rare occasion it arrives on such an sxtreme.

.

The question is to calculate the expected max,
the maxf how close by together those can come .. on the basis of q =1 in 620.

Is q <1 within 140 events
Is q <2 within 210 events .. or games till profit.

The stats, relevant to the calculation are attached.
Rename the file to *.xlsx.
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

Median Joe said: ↑

Clear as mud I'm afraid.

So you're using a parachute progression.
You've run this progression 620 times?
calculate the expected max - max what? Number of spins without a hit?
if q is a probability it doesn't make sense to say q <2, because a probability is always <= 1, so maybe q isn't a probability? if so, what is it?

If you want some stats pertaining to your parachute progression ( or the "max" of something), it's very unlikely that there will be a neat formula or analytical answer to your question, which means that a simulation will be needed. Most complex stats questions don't have formulaic solutions, which perhaps explains (apart from the lack of clarity) why you haven't had any responses on the forums.
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

OK Joe, thanks, for the reply.
Since you are paying attention, I am gonna make another attempt at clarification.

.

Yes, correct
• I've run my progression 620 times, all won.
• As you can see either on the screenshot images on the links or in the zip file provided to be renamed, one of those games exceeded 150u (-240 max exposition, 255 spins -- till completion in profit)
• q is always q>1 -- I've used q inapproprieatly, meanwhile, we are talking about a 'q event' .. now derived q, on a higher lever of perception' (session to session)

.

Let's now clarify further, point by point
• Yes, I've run progression 620 times = conversely with +100u session goal, 13x sessions

Number of games (the number of instances the progression is run individually) = number of events

So, I am not interested in about what happens 'within' one progression instance run, or any spins

At this point, we are above that already; where an event is a game won .. irregardless of how it came to that

(In the 4x.zip.file -- columns H-Y represent all games = events that exceeded exposition -10, while column D all games = events within that session till +100)

As you can see in column D -- the range of games events it takes to constitute one completed session ranges somewhere from ≈ 25-70 games = events, & on average ≈50.

• So, when an instance of a progression run, on a very rare occasion, meets higher than usual exposition & amount of spins = I determined that as namely, an 'extreme game' or 'extreme event'.

In this stats case, with format (exposition, spins) .. (-240,266)

All other games =events were better than (-150,xxx).

Which gives us with the bankroll of at least 250u, perhapd more to remain on the safe side ..

A 100% reliability or p=1, & q=0.

To deal with the extreme games = events in a manner that
a) still maintains a great session profit:bankroll ratio for the purposes of
maximized base unit compounding effect at the ratio of 1:1 = (+100u:100u bankroll)
nearly maximized .. at 1:1.5 = (+100u,150u bankroll)
b) terminates such extreme games = events early
so cutting them short, meanwhile operating at the/ smaller bankroll ..

.

I've made a hypothetical case of the ratio being 1.5:1 = (150u bankroll : +100u session goal;
which gives us according to this newly generated, updated stats

where 150u bankroll gives us 1 game = event in 620, that is not addressed with the bankroll amount sufficiently, thus terminated early, as soon as meeting exposition of (-150)

(this is what I've defined as namely 'q event' .. & is most likely the source of all confusion -- rename it appropriately if necessary)

where .. reliability p=0.998387 or 99.9387% & q=0.001613 or 0.1613%

so the reliability of "an instance the progression is run as a whole" = one event

(again, forget about spins .. & what happens within the even itself = we are at the event level now, as the smallest building block in our stats calculation)

.

@Median Joe .. is thus far all clear?
If yes, what wants to be known is now how close together are this 'q events' expected to be MAX,
where the AVERAGE is 1 in 620, or q=0.001613, 0.1613%.

.

To put this in the context of a session (constituted as completed successfully at +100u), it takes at the high end of the spectrum range about ≈70 games = events = instances the progression is run.

To apply the 'base unit Marti' session over session, on a null-hypothesis of "my method/progression is so great that I can afford to run Marti on it" -- the density, burst, or max frequency of such terminated event should not exceed

'q event' <2 .. in 140 spins -- if equal or more than that 2-step Marti doesn't cut it

[base unit 1x→on terminated game, base unit 2x .. all next 25-70 events have to win]

'q event' <3 .. in 210 spins -- if equal or more than that 3-step Marti doesn't cut it

in case the three sessions in a row till +100u happen to be on top of the range, so 70 consecutive games or progression instances run = events in each of them

.

Is there anything else I can say, or expand on, to make it absolutely clear?
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thereddiamanthe said: ↑

One event = can be ..

one spin only 3EC (+3,+1)

or any number of spins till eg. exposition meets exposition unit mark of

(-100) for 1:1 bankroll: session profit ratio

(-150) for 1.5:1 ratio √

(-120) for 1.2:1 ratio

.. obviously, each generates different reliability p,q values (we are going with √ in this hypothetical case)

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thereddiamanthe said: ↑

God damn it .. typo!

'q event' = being a terminated game
.. on average 1 in 620 total events

.

As you have most likely perceived by now, there are two progression schemes:
• base progression scheme (within the instances the method is run = within game = within event)
• potential base unit scheme, on top of that (on the event level), on top of the ↑ above)
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

Median Joe said: ↑

Ok, so I think I see what you are after now. The event q is an instance of losing 150u, and this has a probability of 0.001613, which is the inverse of p = 0.998387, which is a successful attack. The worst case scenario is when you have two q events occur back-to-back (because they can't get any closer than that), and the probability of this happening is 0.001613^2 = 2.601769E-6, or 1 in approximately 384,354. For some perspective, this is roughly equivalent to 18 reds in a row. Is q worked out mathematically from your progression or is it an empirical estimate?
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

Sincerely, @Median Joe Thanks.
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

thereddiamanthe said: ↑

Empirical. Why?

& the populus is only +4000 spins -- for that exact version, taken further steps after that, it has been improved, so it ain't what statistician would say a big sample. But enough to draw some conclusions.

.

Chart for Markov Chains expectation is done, although a bit simplified as its as it is complex enough already, since it can be stretching over so many spins .. including so many steps & variations it can unfold -- .. & that's only the major structure skeletron .. there are even variations upon that in play .. contingent on the variance type = what is currently happening, what is unfolding, that's not accounted for in the chart itself = basically, taking advantage of the temporary cohesion .. until the indication of it fizzling out, defaulting to the skeletron itself; plus not including some recent upgrades;

its pending .. to be done, by someone, since I do not possess enough skills in this field, yet.

.

18x EC ain't thaat rare though .. maybe two in a row, perhaps with a zero in-between is a bit more .. how should I say .. not that expected. But as we all know, that ain't no guarantee to go by, meaning dismiss or disregard it per se .. as variance doesn't go by averages, & can spit out serving you on a platter such extreme sequences the first time played.

It has to be accounted for & addressed approprietly, should it come, if at all, for whenever that might happen...
.

But although that, 18x EC streak (repeat or chop), gives me a notion to go by, as in ..

Two-step Marti [base unit 1→2] = 0.001613 = so 3nines of certainty
Three-step Marti [base unit 1→2→4] = 0.001613² = 0.000002601769 = 5nines of certainty
For-step Marti [base unit [1→2→4→8] = 0.001613³ = 0.000000004196653394 = 8nines of certainty

it still doesn't address this specific thing properly, the form as it is in itself.

.

Therefore, I am gonna print some data for context, for more potential input:

Running the progression instance once, reaching the exposition point with of (-150) with no-hit at all -- going over EC all the way to Quads, Corners payouts, would take min 49 spins, out of which 45 would be 2Q with 8ⁿ played/spin.

That in itself is already at 99.99827% certainty, so 4nines; adding 3EC→DZ+CL→DS→DS or 3EC→2DS+DZ in front, how much would that amount cumulatively?

Also, that in itself is already 360ⁿ played;
adding the attack would be with either 3EC (-1) 71ⁿ in the first five spins
or 3EC (-3) 95ⁿ played in the first four spins,
so in total over 49 no-hit spins either 410ⁿ or 438ⁿ played.

Furthermore, with each hit along the way, feeding the progression to extend further in a number of spins, the probability only heightens up or increases, due to extra bets being place along the way (← is this correct?); & usually, the extremest type of game = terminated event is in the region of ≈200+ spin .. at the point of reaching (-150).

.

If that is correct, drawing the parallels with 18x EC probability streak intel, there's still something that does not get addressed, or put into perspective, just yet:

due to the average session length in spins being ≈300, potentially extending towards & including 400 spins
+
the length of a terminated game being in the region of 200 spins
+
a session ranging anywhere from 25-70 games, or on average 50 games = events

.. when applying Marti to the base unit, or bu in short (the next instance of the fundamental progression or event is run) = then the expected number of spins relative to the number of terminated games would range ..

for a two-step bu Marti [1→2] to be successful & 140 games (taking the top of the event range) -- the next terminated even = back to back, must not happen the next 25-70 games .. or 160-400 spins; or 320-800 spins in total only one such event happens

for a three-step bu Marti [1→2→4], presuming that two terminated events have happened in the interval of 320-800 spins, must not happen again in the next 160--400; or in total a back-to-back-to back terminated event must not happen within 480-1200 spins

Now, looking at it from the mathematical perspective -- based on the presumption that the probability raises with each hit realized; this is something that does not happen in the 18x EC streak .. & besides the empirical probability is already lower than the mathematical including 2Q bets only & excluding the first four attack bets.

So, what would be the real probability to go by for the two points above .. ie. the terminated events within that specific interval of spins?

.
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

Median Joe said: ↑

I need clarification but better to put the topic in a new thread, I think.
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thereddiamanthe · Jul 5, 2022

@Median Joe OK, let's resume & continue ..

thereddiamanthe · Jul 7, 2022

@Median Joe what do you require clarification on?

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Roulette Base Unit Progression Scheme built above the Extended Parachute Progression

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Series 4.x -- STATS.zip

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Roulette Base Unit Progression Scheme built above the Extended Parachute Progression

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Attached Files:

Series 4.x -- STATS.zip

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