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Baccarat Best Money Management

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by cps10, Apr 22, 2020.

  1. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Good afternoon!

    I wanted to know everybody’s opinion on the best money management method that you use. No judgment here at all. Even if you think the Marty is best, then that’s your opinion.
     
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  2. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    —Yes fair statement you’re quite right each to their own. I would like to say like most professionals we all started using all the various betting systems at some stage in our careers in regards to casino play. In saying that one can roughly say where a young player is ,knowledge wise, when they start using a Marty after seeing 3 players and saying things like that’s rare, or you don’t see that often, you can guess the rest. Sports betting and horses/dog race betting is a little different in my opinion. In regards to casino betting you really only have full or mini martingale, or variations of negative progression of various names, ie labarocee , Oscar grind , Fibonacci etc. Then of course flat betting.
    —Like I said I have used most if not all of above mentioned methods. Short term most are Adequate and useful as long as that hairline trigger on the shotguns you’re juggling don’t go off and blow your bank away. Mostly I used the above methods over the years on baccarat, when I gave up black jack card counting, here they now use a continuous shuffle machine and the count became redundant. I found with bad bet selection, some call it the - ev of baccarat, variant, whatever , the black swan of any method you employ will and does eventually rare its beautiful ugly head. Sometimes back to back = huge financial losses = huge emotional up and down swings, and the feeling of dismay as you call the next bet correctly, finally, only to have no bankroll left to make your money back.
    — I now only flat bet , I know the black swan event is out there , so when it appears I can walk away not to far in the red or I can continue on for a longer period of time to come back even, slightly in front or a few units down. Not to taxing on the personal bankroll or the psychological or physical structure . I know if you are on average more than 50% correct on your decision making and you flat bet you will make money. You need to be in the 70-80% correct decision making to make money using neg progression betting and 90+% to be effective martingale bettor. If you’re better than 60,70,80, or even 90+%bet selection correct flat bet is great, don’t need to be a show pony, boring old profit is fine.
    —Another reason I flat bet one unit is that I cannot now justify progression/ Marty betting and putting that much money on the table to lose , then have to spend so much more money, time ,emotional, mental and physical effort to get it back and make a profit. That’s what the casino wants you to do, in comparison at that actual moment in time they have a unlimited bankroll compared to your finite progression bankroll .I don’t bet for the thrill. I get the thrill of life elsewhere.
    — So flat betting gets my vote thanks for the thread. Cheers
     
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  3. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Thank you for your thoughtful response! I would love to get to a point of flat betting. That is a goal of mine for sure.
     
  4. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Beating the casino with flat stakes by Victor Bethell m Monte Carlo Anecdotes and Systems. Easy to find with google.


    Play at your own risk.
     
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  5. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Thank you ND!
     
  6. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I still like, and play, a modified D'Alembert with an up as you win (UAYW) component and/or a "freeze bet" component. If it's truly MM then no matter what the progression future bets will depend on winning or losing dat inside a particular shoe or session(s). I also like the betting to be staged based on personal total risk v. reward criteria.

    The meat of this kind of MM is locking up a profit after a winning bet, increasing a bet by certain % after a losing bet and increasing by a certain % after a decent winning series.

    There is a millions ways to this. If not winning flat betting we are going to have to raise our betting. My motto is, "ya can't lose forever." Personally, I use freeze unit, and even half back unit if I get too deep in the hole. I am not worried about taking a loss, just reducing the loss is good enough. The wins will come.

    J
     
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  7. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Has any one ever read any books on Baccarat before closing this game ?
     

  8. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    typo: choosing .
     
  9. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Are you going to make a point or are you just taking a poll?
     
  10. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Just a general question . No polling which I hate.



    ND
     
  11. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    Yes lock up profit , I know I rate flat betting as the best for me so sometimes it not just a flat bet. I like starting the session with a double unit bet , ie 100 is the base unit so first bet is 200 if that wins next bet is 100 , locked up 100 immediately. If the second bet won bet 100 again third time it wins press the bet on the fourth time then press the bet until first loss. I have found 2-5 winners in a row happen so take advantage.
    — If the first bet of the example looses the 200 become the flat bet unit and play to what ever my game process is. Usually bet to recover, bet to I decide a couple of units loss is acceptable or bet to get the one unit profit ie 200 then depending on how long that’s been to achieve ,the decision is now keep the one full unit (200) or bet half again . In doing that I lock the min 100 profits. From experience with my game play I usually walk at the recovery of 200 profit take a break then start again. I like to keep game play short as I play on the stadium baccarat on an infinite shoe so you can go down the rabbit hole quickly if not careful, in 60 minutes you have played 120 plus hands . With a table dealt shoe the casino puts a handbrake on the play by having a finite shoe ie the cut card marks the end of play.
    Cheers
     
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  12. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    No nothing specifically on baccarat, bit of web based information browsing. Initially I took up horse and dog racing in my late 20s, pre computer and internet , so read a lot of journals, and any book on handicap I could find. I went to the illegal casinos here in Sydney (before the crackdown and star city casino put most out of business ) mainly to get faceless rather than gamble. I knew most the underground scene so freebes was the way to go. Lots of alcohol and drugs... nice. Good old days huh.
    - -Then legal casino opens I still mainly horse and dog bettor , until a friend introduces me to black jack. Then I read all I could about card counting mainly Aussie authors as easy to track down, I read a huge amount of psychology books on gambling and the complete works of Jung ,about 60 volumes approximately if I remember correctly. Huge help
    —Then when the automatic continuous shuffling machine was introduced to black jack I went sports betting and roulette by then internet was more available so mainly read online, having access to USA material on sports betting really lifted my game. Went off roulette once I started to read more about house edge etc. Then a natural graviton to baccarat and to be honest as I’ve had very little reading on baccarat it actually has payed me more money than the other brands of games combined. Except the stock trading I do, that’s in another level on its own.
    Cheers
     
  13. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Thanks for such a very detailed reply . Continued Happy Winnings .


    ND
     
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  14. Punkcity

    Punkcity Active Member

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    cheers
     

  15. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    As I indicated in my other posts, I steer clear of any Negative Progressions in a last couple of years or so as I am a strong proponent of "Win fewer units with a higher unit size than win more units with a lower unit size". So my go-to MM is 1-2 positive loop (though I flirt with 2-3 Positive loop at times which is more forgiving on a downswing but less rewarding on an up-awing). So, at any time I am up 1 unit, I immediately bump next bet to 2 units. And if its a win, I am 3 units up and will not end a session in a negative. But more often than not keep playing 1-2 loop with a reduced unit size. Just for a simplicity, I'll use a $100 unit size...If I am one unit up (+100), my next bet is $200. I wins, I am up $300. At this point more often than not, I'll cut a unit size to $25 if a table limit allows and continue $25-$50 loop in a same manner till first loss. When a loss occurs at $25, I call it a day unless I manage to catch a long string of wins, then I'll re-evaluate my further action

    But if a gun is placed to my head to play a Negative Progression, I'd use a modified d'Alembert. U1D1 till I reach a level 4, at which point I immediately switch to U1D2 to get me to at least a level 3 where I switch back to U1D1 and so on. This probably the only Neg. Progression that never got me in MAJOR troubles. So the high hit rate is a must, because if its not, there's no MM in a world that will save you from crippling your B-Roll. If you feel particularly frisky, you may push the envelope to U1D1M2, where M2 is a mandatory double bet regardless if a previous 1unit bet lost or won.
     
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  16. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    U1 on a loss D1 on a win? I use something similar to that oftentimes. Thank you for your response punkcity.

    I have been into horse racing the past couple of months since it’s the only thing available right now.
     
  17. Xytras

    Xytras New Member

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    Yes, Up 1 after a loss, Down 1 after a win is a standard d'Alembert. But don't get married to it, because if you do, the units will start climb up and your B-Roll won't keep up. So a better version of it is to go down 2 units after a win when you reach a 4-units bet. This will keep you more or less closer to an equilibrium.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2020
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  18. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei New Member

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    I use trailing stop
    • It is designed to lock in profits or limit losses as a score moves favorably.
    • Once it moves to lock in a profit or reduce a loss, it does not move back in the other direction.
    No runaway progressions. The losses are impossible to recover. U1D1 and U1D2 got me into trouble many times.
     
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  19. GSarosi

    GSarosi New Member

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    Only two books I read on baccarat were Power Baccarat 2 and How to Win Big in Baccarat. PB2 carries some substance but I didn’t finish it. Just went to the end of the book and followed its action plan from strategy/practice to table action. How to Win Big in Baccarat was a cute skim thru but a waste of time. Was more useful going thru certain websites on baccarat information.
     
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  20. Westwardchimp

    Westwardchimp New Member

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    So far nice and in formative comments.
    I use something Rouletteman calls triplets.
    Its kind of a stretched D'alembert.

    Say your only betting banker (no coms e.g.)
    BBP PBP BPB BBP PPP BBB
    WWL 1 = +1 (stay on same unit)
    LWL 1 = 0 (increase by one unit)
    WLW 2 = +2 (back down to one unit)
    WWL 1 = +3 (Stay at one unit)
    LLL 1 = 0 (Increase by two units)
    WWW 3 = +9 (back to one unit)

    So far so good. The only issue im having is with bet selections. Every action has a equal and opposite reaction on the long term. So Ive been testing different win stops. So far 20 win 30 loss does the best. Averages 80 units per 10 shoes.

    Also been experimenting with 5 different flat betting bet selection systems all at once. This way when 2 are loosing your still wining. And draw downs are alot less than if you were just using 1 system. I see Charley Barley created a software using simular principles.

    So far im in profit but emotions run high when draw downs come.
     

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