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Craps Bet the Math and Here's Why

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by Frank Scoblete, Apr 29, 2015.

  1. Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete Active Member Founding Member

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    On another thread is a discussion of "trend-betting" but on this one I want to show clearly and simply why you must bet the math of the game.

    Right now all over the world craps players are about to throw the dice, millions of them, allowing for millions of decisions. You have to bet on each roll; each single roll for all the craps players in the world who are about to throw the dice.

    How would you bet? Given so many millions of decisions obviously you'd have to bet the best bets of the game. Why would you do otherwise if you want to keep the millions of losses as low as possible.
    Now, you get to bet on every roll of every shooter on earth for a year. What would be the best way to bet? Use the lowest house edge bets. Play the math.

    So why, since you are one of the players, would you bet differently? How does your short run indicate a better bet than the bets you are making for all other craps players all over the world?

    It wouldn't. Allow yourself to bet for yourself the way you would bet for everyone on earth playing craps right now and all the upcoming thens. With millions of decisions there will be millions of streaks but so what? When all is said and done, the math will win out over all those decisions. The math will win out for you too.
     
  2. Harley

    Harley Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    BUT Frank Scoblete, what if the Casino has changed the house edge and the math of the game - how do YOU know what to bet ?

    - Where do you know the lowest house edge bets are on the craps table if the House has changed the math?!

    Biased dice or Unbalanced dice are Percentage Dice that increases the casino house edge in craps AND changes the MATH of craps.

    John Scarne describes Percentage Dice on page 209 of his book Scarne on Dice. Scarne explains that whoever is using percentage dice:
    John Scarne on page 135 in his book Scarne on Dice states:
    We have seen numerous monthly casino tax returns and reports showing the craps hold at over 30% and as high as 50% to 70% --- Casinos do change the MATH - why do you ignore this ?!

    The Gambler's Book Shop motto is "knowledge is protection." At the store, they have a book by Steven L Forte for $750.00 called “Casino Game Protection: A Comprehensive Guide” ….. you can also get it on Amazon from about $300. to $3,000.

    As explained on our website, there are no technical dice specification laws in Nevada and Forte states in his aforementioned book on page 247:
    This vagueness in the Nevada dice laws allows the casinos to have an unfair game and increase the House edge as much as they desire --- just like they did when they started using 6:5 BlackJack to increase the House edge by over 800 percent - Greedy Corporate Casinos change the MATH to increase profit
     
  3. Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete Active Member Founding Member

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    Only talking about math of the game and not controlled shooting or any other method of getting an advantage.
     
  4. Harley

    Harley Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Frank Scoblete - explain just 1 Math bet for us
     
  5. MisterAK

    MisterAK Member

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    MisterAK is surprised that neither of the individual posters above understands the difference in math, odds, and EV. All made apparent by their posts.

    For the record, the math never changes. The same formulas are used to calculate odds and expected value as were used before the casinos changed the payouts on the bets. Of course, at craps this applies primarily to the prop box, although the casinos rule on breakage and when to collect the commission on buy and lay bets also impacts it.

    I completely reject Harley's bias toward biased dice. His theory has more holes than there are pips on the dice. Any reasonable, thinking man can see this. Only someone who is impaired or who is looking for an excuse for his own poor performance at the tables will buy into this nonsense. What Harley sees as bias - I see as an unusual streak of 5-2 sevens. I have seen shooters toss 5 consecutive elevens, 6 consecutive twelves, and in one case, 17 consecutive sixes. Were the dice biased? No. The individual tossing them was one of the Johnson brothers, who are members of a family of DI's that are among the top shooters in the world.

    Mister Scoblete, while talking about the math of the game only and not as impacted by DI's, actually has bits and pieces of truth in his post. The law of large numbers tells us that the larger the sampling the closer the results will approach the statistical norm. If you are a long run player then you should probably follow his advice and bet the lowest vig bets. For those of you unfamiliar with those wagers, they are the DP with odds, the DC with odds, the Pass with odds, the Come with odds, Buy bets on the four and ten where the commission is collected after the win and (even better) where the house sets the breakage (the point at which you pay an additional $1 commission) at $30 - $35 - or $39. Last of all, place the six and eight.

    What bet do you think has won more money for the casinos through the years? Mr. Scoblete - would you like to weigh in on that one?

    In my opinion it is the place bet on the six and eight, which is one of the lowest vig bets on the table. More money has been lost on that bet because more money is WAGERED on that bet. That is my opinion, which admittedly is strongly influenced by my friend Heavy.

    Here is the problem with this theory for many players, though. Not everyone who steps up to a craps table is a long run player. Many are short run players. Vacationers who flock to Vegas with $2000 to gamble with. They buy in for $500, lose it in under an hour, and do not play craps again until 2 years later, when they save enough money to make another trip to Mecca. Over the course of 20 years they may play 10 sessions, most under one hour. They will see a total of around 600 decisions at the table. Far short of what we call the "long run." They will bet like the popular book they just read suggest. Five count. Place the six and eight. Make three come bets. Work off the place bets as the come bets travel. Seven out - line away. $104 just pissed away. 20% of the players bankroll gone. Go ahead, player. Try it again.

    In this example we are looking at a short run player. If you take all of the play of all of the short run players for all time and add it together you have a long run result. But anything can and will happen in a game when the short run player is there. A shooter may have a 38 number hand that consists of nothing but come out horn numbers, sevens, and point cycle fives and nines. Harley, by the way, would say these dice are biased. Heavy and I would say "Who cares? Make my five and nine look like $350." The player who sticks with the "math" approach to the game will watch this 38 number hand go by without making a dime. The "trend" bettor will fill his rack. If that trend bettor is a short run player, the casino may never get ahead of him again.

    This is an interesting discussion. One I have seen many times. It is unfortunate when players who do not know the difference in math, odds, and EV interject themselves into a thread and attempt to pass themselves off as experts. It is, in my opinion, a sign of a weak mind.

    And now, it is time to run. 4 degrees in Quebec this evening. Looking at a high of around 6 tomorrow, but with sun and scattered clouds. The turkeys should be stirring. We shall kill our limit before Saturday night, then hop over to Casino Lac Leamy for a little craps play. Hopefully we will cross paths with the great Mad Professor and get in on one of his signature hands.
     
  6. Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete Active Member Founding Member

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    Nice post but still the short run player cannot predict the future and create a new kind of method for play that is better than betting the lowest house edges. Just can't be done. Trend betting cannot tell us what will happen.

    Heavy is probably right about placing the 6 and 8 as the bet that wins the most money for the casinos --- a very large number there!

    The trend betting, while it might keep a person from betting on all decisions, is not an advantage-play method.
     

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