Baccarat Betting Flat?

I wonder if most cats see the betting flat style as the ultimate, or holy grail? In reality even a profitable flat bet style gonna clip you for downdraws what will be a significant chunk of yer bankroll and betting flat is slim margin that might net ya a units profit. But then most cats just ain't got realistic expectation and I think I'll do a thread on that, hey hey.

 

For me, flat betting winds up netting 0.3 to 0.5 units per shoe, which I’m sure some would feel is fine, but bores me to tears.

Using any of a variety of progressions takes it to +5.5 units per shoe, which is a figure that includes black swans, losses, bad runs over multiple shoes, etc. Net net in other words.

As mentioned in the Turbo/Roulette war threads and elsewhere, a progression simply amplifies what’s already there. If someone can’t win flat betting, then they shouldn’t play until they can.

 

So true, so true. Don’t play until you can win by flat betting great line. The only problem is they become simulation junkies and they use zuma , rng or the hundred real shoes they have recorded and either bastardise the results or themselves. In turn they revisit forums with rhetoric bile as some self proclaimed expert as to why something cannot be done. Or as my personal favourite the expert that proclaims that you don’t see more than 8 banks or players (as an example)in a row because they didn’t see see that in their recorded 100 shoes.
sheik.
— Everything works until it doesn’t the trick is to recognise that as it happens and adjust accordingly or stop. Come back later and do it, whatever the it,is. Or a combination of its in your toolbox might be best way to go.
— I would say use a bigger denomination as your base unit as a flat betting unit as someone on another thread suggests. Can’t see how anyone can be bored making a profit especially when using a big bet $100 to $1000 flat bet range . Ssooooo $200 to & $2000 profit in ten minutes is boring, I take that any day and on my way home maybe drop by the S&M parlour and spend a couple hundred on a spanking. Tongue and cheek guys ,just joking.
—Soxfan ,Mako, you obviously have something that works for you that’s a good thing. From experience most will not believe you no matter how hard you try, I say why bother? Let them rot. Simulation junkies never put skin in the game and never understand drawdowns, fatigue, time or profit. Sure run a gazillion shoes get the standard ror, sdi , std or aids in the time it takes to watch a ten minute porno, doesn’t mean they can play or understand what they are doing let alone have the intestinal fortitude to get through a downswing. Don’t sweat it . Let them rot.

 

Yes that’s true but if you don’t have a reliable bet selection a negative progressive bet isn’t going to help you either. As an example I can walk away from a four hand in a row loss, be four units down ie $4000, come back later and make that back emotionally easier than losing $1000 +$2000+$3000+$4000=$11000 for four losses in a row. Do I start the next shoe at a $5000 bet to continue the sequence to start getting that $11000 back, then continue $6000,$7000 etc ? Or am I compelled to continue betting on that original shoe with a $5000 bet in a situation that is obviously not working for me at this particular moment? That’s a lot of pressure. That’s what the casino wants you to believe, in my opinion only.
— I used to believe I HAD to make a profit on EVERY shoe I played , it all most drove me to financial ruin, as stated elsewhere I have had employed at some time or the other all betting progression so I’m experienced in that regard.
— Now I say I can comfortably get up from a table flat betting as a holy grail FOR ME ( not for anyone else as I don’t know what anyone else is doing ) be a few units down because I know I will recover that short term loss. The casino has to keep dealing, I don’t have to keep betting when it doesn’t benefit me, I’m not pressured to continue because I’m at some outrageous amount of money caused by some negative betting progression. If it’s a black swan event no amount of money is going to save you. Acknowledge the black swan event, retain your bankroll come back later, they have to keep dealing. The last couple of paragraphs I have related above was my gambling Epiphany from some years ago. I resist the pressure from fellow baccarat players (some are good friends) and pit bosses, even dealers to continue playing to recover my losses. Most people really don’t understand. If IT is not working it’s not working and throwing more money is not the solution. I come across many dealers, players, pit bosses over the years that say flat betting never wins. They are still working at the casino, the players are no longer there as they have run out of money and a new batch has replaced them etc etc etc.
—I guess each to their own and everyone is correct.
Cheers

 

Flat betting:

These are some of the qualities of flat betting when you are at the tables:

1. Is not exciting at all and is very boring.
2. It is low variance.
3. Pretty predictable in terms of when to color out when you are profitable and when to walk when things are bad.
4. Takes a certain kind of temperament to make it work. Meaning you don't get excited when you win five in a roll or lose five in a roll.
5. Because of #3 flat betting is focused on playing correctly and not about how big you will win.
6. Only makes sense if you are betting big. Personally for me it is $50 and above. I like playing $100 to $300 a hand. That is my comfort level. For others it maybe more.
7. Sometimes the grind down is very irritating and can warp your psyche and you can lose your cool. Yet it is low pressure play mostly.


These are the qualities when you are testing:

1. It is deceiving when testing a flat betting strategy using an already full shoe like Zuma. You have to play test an actual shoe in real time to find something that will work for you. So a good baccarat simulator is needed. The more your play testing method resembles real casino play the more successful you will be when you lay down real money.

2. It works well when you are playing alone by yourself at the tables.

3. Because of #2 flat betting is favorable when the casino offers unlimited free hands or at least allowing playing both sides to move the shoe.

4. This method only works when the casino allows you to record the shoe with pen and paper. Some casinos do not allow this such as some of the ones you will find in Macau.

5. Favorable with regular commission baccarat. When play in gimmicky free commission based games like Dragon 7 and especially Super 6 your profit will drop.

 

Mostly agree, but might add that not all casinos offer the perks you write about, player need to be conversant with rules of the particular casino they will play at .
Love your work Gsarosi, cheers

 

Yes. The perks especially the unlimited free hands and able to play by yourself can be found in Las Vegas. On the Strip this is the standard norm in the high limit rooms. In downtown this can be found in low limit as well where they also let you touch the cards if that is your thing.

Also the perks can also be found if you play at the electronic tables. Just make sure an actual deck of cards is used and no unlimited RNG.

 

In the main, good post, GSarosi.

I, too, flat bet for the most part. But by "flat bet", I simply mean that I use that as my "base bet". I will, however, at times parlay, or half-parlay, dependent upon my current strike rate for certain particular preferred trends of mine.

Lastly, I will also "alter" that flat "base bet" on an inter-session basis, dependent upon my current variance statistics. So, for instance, I will adjust that base bet up some 50% to as much as 100% if I had lower than normal strike rates for the past two prior sessions, all for the sake of an expedited recoup.

That said, however, in those instances where I had to adjust my base bet upwards, I will remain in strict "flat bet mode" throughout that particular recoup session; there'll be no parlays whatsoever.

Stay safe and stay well.

 

OK. Let`s call it flat betting .

ND

 

Thanks, my friend, and I'm happy to see you chiming in when you can.

How are you doing, Karl? Everything OK with you and yours, I hope.

Stay safe and stay well, all.

 

gr8player,

I am doing OK and no complaints either.


Continued Happy Winnings .


ND

 

Flat bet when hit rate 60%

 

Hi Mako,

I've read your posts and really like your way of playing.

What would you recommend as a good and conservative progression to take care of the boredom.

Thanks and cheers.

 

People can post about Money Management from Flat Betting in the middle to Positive Progression on the right and Negative Progression on the Left. Each can win and lose. No one is better than the other because all are dealing with the same ODDS. It is the Probability and Payout ratio that changes which enables the bettor to win/lose at a different rate. It's a choice.
However, Flat Bettor can turn impatient very quickly on a bad day and they are usually superstitious and sensitive about the surroundings where they play be it another bettor betting on the same table OR a dealer that takes his money etc.
Positive Progressive Players are rare because these brand of players constantly have to endure losses and needs longer time at the casinos.

The most popular type is the Negative Progressive players because they use high Probability to beat the house and the sessions can be very short and business like. The problem is these players fall into the mentality that they have found the Holy Grail and therefore abuses their play by thinking it as a Money Printing system. But in reality, the wins are fractional and ONLY the EXCESS units over their SERIES BANKROLL are considered pocketable wins.

Players who varied their bets based on sentiment are a combination of the above 3 and that is why they usually lose in the long run. The reason being simple. They will scratch their heads lamenting they win 7 days in a row and lose it back in just 1 or 2 days. Advisors of the game will be quick to comment on Control and Discipline which is only half correct. The things that needs to focus on is HOW HE USUALLY WINS THAT MANY DAYS IN A ROW?

The most common situation in gambling is the BACK & FORTH situation. Any mini chases will make the bettor a winner. If he gets aggressive after up a few units and bet positively it will make him reach his Stop Win amount. This is where he will quit and be proud of his discipline.
The single reason for an intermediate level player to lose is the LONG RUN of LOSSES ( don't have to be all in a row). Chases after chases will go down and whenever a SINGLE win comes, the bettor will quickly double up to chase and hope to get on a winning streak. Sometimes it works and the bettor was able to make a comeback but as soon as he breaks even, he immediately switch back to minimal bet. This is what happens to most players. Dare to lose and dare not win. Soon that fateful day arrived and they ended up giving everything back.

Judging from the above 3 betting styles, the one that stand out a bit is the Negative Progressive player because it is very business like if one uses a Hit & Run mentality and NOT treating it as a system. No excuses after losses like the Flat Bettor usually does.

I am NOT saying Negative Progression is the best. Any each one can win. It's a choice. The ODDS don't changed. Only the Probability and Payout ratio changes. Casinos love Flat Bettors because it is a guaranteed +/- 1.25% commission for the House whether P or B. The designated minimum/maximum bet will take care of the Progression players.

For me, a manageable negative progression with a lot of charting and hit & run. The casino describe these players as Casino Rats or Casino Terrorists. My overall wins are as slow as a Tortoise but it is definitely moving.

 

Casinos love progression players MUCH better. It's EXACTLY why that board and score cards are there. It surely isn't for the players benefit. If they were, they wouldn't allow them. They want suckers chasing losses or winners pressing knowing full well they'll lose.

Getting 1.25% off of a flat $100 player is WORSE than getting that same 1.25% off of a player averaging $140. So as Spock would say... "You're being illogical"

 

You are trying to find a bone in an egg and you are successful here. I typed +/- 1.25% based on omitting the tie bet and the B bet having more frequency than P.

4 possible outcomes if everything happens evenly.

Win with B
Win with P
Lose with B
Lose with P

Overall loss is 5%. Divide it by 4 outcomes with work out to 1.25% for every wager.
This is HOW THE HOUSE WORKS TOWARDS THE BETTOR and that is why they are so particular about the spread out action in Baccarat.

You ONLY think from the BETTOR side.
The board is set up to save paper scorecard cost and technology has advanced. Take away the board and scorecards and nobody will patronize.
Again you are being negative and only sees things from the bettors side.

If nothing works, why are you reading and replying to every thread?
What is next? Casino manipulating the cards with shufflers?

We are talking about an almost 50/50 game. Don't make it sound like we are buying Lotto tickets here. Winning is NOT that tough.

 

Interestingly that is the approach I am exploring at the moment: Many small losses, few big wins, positive but tiny average