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Baccarat Binary Truth Tables - Baccarat Edition

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by R19, Jun 20, 2019.

  1. R19

    R19 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2018
    Likes:
    45
    Location:
    USA
    I looked it up. So what? Please post. Any risk taking of money can degrade return percentages, strike rates, etc. but the volume grows substantially. IMO, baccarat shoes over a shoe do not trade like a random result or sequence and I have played/ viewed a lot of them. Furthermore, I have taken a lot of advanced math/ engineering course including courses that PhD candidate students had to take a second time and I had the professor slow walk me through the course so I earned a decent enough grade, and don't ever recall this term coming up so shows everyone how much I think math concepts count for anything other than highly quantitative applications which baccarat is not.

    If you trade the SP500 for decades and hundreds of millions of shares, what will the net point difference between buys and sells be?
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
  2. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Likes:
    36
    Location:
    FrozenTundra
    Bwwwwwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh what sort of bullshits, nonsenses and jumbo-mumbo is this? For the life of me I don't understand how/why an intelligent cat like the lunghyeh find any value in this style of buffoonery, hey hey.
     
  3. R19

    R19 Active Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2018
    Likes:
    45
    Location:
    USA
    There is always a question on how closely any sort of practice/ training baccarat shoe is to real life current on-line live casino or real house baccarat shoes. I have asked many times in the past how real certain games are such as Dragon Ace Casino and very few respond. So I can only gauge for myself. I always here about random number generated this or that versus a real baccarat shoe, but one should be able to look at a shoe card by card, hand by hand, and the overall shoe and get an idea.

    Maybe a binary truth table is a math fancy way of saying a baccarat shoe? ok Bank/ Player, 1s and 0s, matrix. I get it bruhs.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
  4. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    266
    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    Here are some sets of Binary tables, which paints a more accurate picture of what can possibly happen after any pattern, and for those trigger based plays.

    2COL

    B B
    B P
    P B
    P P

    I did make the mistake of stating (often), if you bet one side only, you have a 75% chance of winning a bet, I have since realised, this is not entirely correct, it also applies to, "if you pre-determine" any two hand sequence in advance.
    3COL

    B B P 14018 1
    P B B 14004 2
    P P B 13632 3
    B P P 13632 3
    B P B 11386 5
    P B P 11048 6
    B B B 8316 7
    P P P 7674 8

    Those numbers are the Zumma occurrences. Obviously over a large data sample PPP is going to be less frequent than BBB due to the card drawing rules. A session can not be regarded as long term, perhaps a week of play and these stats will ring true, however you still have to handle the short term.

    4COL

    B B B B
    B B B P
    B B P B
    B B P P
    B P B B
    B P B P
    B P P B
    B P P P
    P B B B
    P B B P
    P B P B
    P B P P
    P P B B
    P P B P
    P P P B
    P P P P

    Bet "one side" only"
    8 ways to win 1st bet
    12 ways to win within 2 bets
    14 ways to win within 3 bets
    1 way to win within 4 bets
    1 way to lose 4 bets

    5COL
    1 B B B B B
    2 B B B B P
    3 B B B P B
    4 B B B P P
    5 B B P B B
    6 B B P B P
    7 B B P P B
    8 B B P P P
    9 B P B B B
    10 B P B B P
    11 B P B P B
    12 B P B P P
    13 B P P B B
    14 B P P B P
    15 B P P P B
    16 B P P P P
    17 P B B B B
    18 P B B B P
    19 P B B P B
    20 P B B P P
    21 P B P B B
    22 P B P B P
    23 P B P P B
    24 P B P P P
    25 P P B B B
    26 P P B B P
    27 P P B P B
    28 P P B P P
    29 P P P B B
    30 P P P B P
    31 P P P P B
    32 P P P P P

    6COL

    1 B B B B B B
    2 B B B B B P
    3 B B B B P B
    4 B B B B P P
    5 B B B P B B
    6 B B B P B P
    7 B B B P P B
    8 B B B P P P
    9 B B P B B B
    10 B B P B B P
    11 B B P B P B
    12 B B P B P P
    13 B B P P B B
    14 B B P P B P
    15 B B P P P B
    16 B B P P P P
    17 B P B B B B
    18 B P B B B P
    19 B P B B P B
    20 B P B B P P
    21 B P B P B B
    22 B P B P B P
    23 B P B P P B
    24 B P B P P P
    25 B P P B B B
    26 B P P B B P
    27 B P P B P B
    28 B P P B P P
    29 B P P P B B
    30 B P P P B P
    31 B P P P P B
    32 B P P P P P
    33 P B B B B B
    34 P B B B B P
    35 P B B B P B
    36 P B B B P P
    37 P B B P B B
    38 P B B P B P
    39 P B B P P B
    40 P B B P P P
    41 P B P B B B
    42 P B P B B P
    43 P B P B P B
    44 P B P B P P
    45 P B P P B B
    46 P B P P B P
    47 P B P P P B
    48 P B P P P P
    49 P P B B B B
    50 P P B B B P
    51 P P B B P B
    52 P P B B P P
    53 P P B P B B
    54 P P B P B P
    55 P P B P P B
    56 P P B P P P
    57 P P P B B B
    58 P P P B B P
    59 P P P B P B
    60 P P P B P P
    61 P P P P B B
    62 P P P P B P
    63 P P P P P B
    64 P P P P P P

    Results for various bet options;
    Unbalanced; 20 column failures, 44 winning columns,
    DBL; only 4 column failures, 60 winning columns
    Double Zig-Zag (BBPP), 4 column failures, 60 winning columns
    Triple Zig-Zag (BBBPPP), only single column failure, 63 winning columns
    Anti-middle 3 streak, 4 column failures and 60 winning columns (16% of any 3 streak, or 8% if restricted to one-side only)

    Now before you start salivating over the potential opportunities, despite the existence of a plethora of betting opportunities that clearly come out on top against Binary tables, if you factor in the losing bets prior to obtaining a win, EVERYTHING resolves to a 50-50 state, You can only gain a perceived advantage if you view a bet as a series of bets.


    7COL

    1 B B B B B B B
    2 B B B B B B P
    3 B B B B B P B
    4 B B B B B P P
    5 B B B B P B B
    6 B B B B P B P
    7 B B B B P P B
    8 B B B B P P P
    9 B B B P B B B
    10 B B B P B B P
    11 B B B P B P B
    12 B B B P B P P
    13 B B B P P B B
    14 B B B P P B P
    15 B B B P P P B
    16 B B B P P P P
    17 B B P B B B B
    18 B B P B B B P
    19 B B P B B P B
    20 B B P B B P P
    21 B B P B P B B
    22 B B P B P B P
    23 B B P B P P B
    24 B B P B P P P
    25 B B P P B B B
    26 B B P P B B P
    27 B B P P B P B
    28 B B P P B P P
    29 B B P P P B B
    30 B B P P P B P
    31 B B P P P P B
    32 B B P P P P P
    33 B P B B B B B
    34 B P B B B B P
    35 B P B B B P B
    36 B P B B B P P
    37 B P B B P B B
    38 B P B B P B P
    39 B P B B P P B
    40 B P B B P P P
    41 B P B P B B B
    42 B P B P B B P
    43 B P B P B P B
    44 B P B P B P P
    45 B P B P P B B
    46 B P B P P B P
    47 B P B P P P B
    48 B P B P P P P
    49 B P P B B B B
    50 B P P B B B P
    51 B P P B B P B
    52 B P P B B P P
    53 B P P B P B B
    54 B P P B P B P
    55 B P P B P P B
    56 B P P B P P P
    57 B P P P B B B
    58 B P P P B B P
    59 B P P P B P B
    60 B P P P B P P
    61 B P P P P B B
    62 B P P P P B P
    63 B P P P P P B
    64 B P P P P P P
    65 P B B B B B B
    66 P B B B B B P
    67 P B B B B P B
    68 P B B B B P P
    69 P B B B P B B
    70 P B B B P B P
    71 P B B B P P B
    72 P B B B P P P
    73 P B B P B B B
    74 P B B P B B P
    75 P B B P B P B
    76 P B B P B P P
    77 P B B P P B B
    78 P B B P P B P
    79 P B B P P P B
    80 P B B P P P P
    81 P B P B B B B
    82 P B P B B B P
    83 P B P B B P B
    84 P B P B B P P
    85 P B P B P B B
    86 P B P B P B P
    87 P B P B P P B
    88 P B P B P P P
    89 P B P P B B B
    90 P B P P B B P
    91 P B P P B P B
    92 P B P P B P P
    93 P B P P P B B
    94 P B P P P B P
    95 P B P P P P B
    96 P B P P P P P
    97 P P B B B B B
    98 P P B B B B P
    99 P P B B B P B
    100 P P B B B P P
    101 P P B B P B B
    102 P P B B P B P
    103 P P B B P P B
    104 P P B B P P P
    105 P P B P B B B
    106 P P B P B B P
    107 P P B P B P B
    108 P P B P B P P
    109 P P B P P B B
    110 P P B P P B P
    111 P P B P P P B
    112 P P B P P P P
    113 P P P B B B B
    114 P P P B B B P
    115 P P P B B P B
    116 P P P B B P P
    117 P P P B P B B
    118 P P P B P B P
    119 P P P B P P B
    120 P P P B P P P
    121 P P P P B B B
    122 P P P P B B P
    123 P P P P B P B
    124 P P P P B P P
    125 P P P P P B B
    126 P P P P P B P
    127 P P P P P P B
    128 P P P P P P P

    Bet one side only, you will snare a win 127 times and lose once (LOL).
    Unbalanced is interesting, because a 7 hand sequence has to be Unbalanced.
    96 ways to win within TWO bets, it has only 24 failure points (if you treat X as being either B or P and visa-versa) you end up with 108 losses and 108 wins, for a 50% resolve state.

    8COL

    1 P P P P P P P P
    2 B P P P P P P P
    3 P B P P P P P P
    4 B B P P P P P P
    5 P P B P P P P P
    6 B P B P P P P P
    7 P B B P P P P P
    8 B B B P P P P P
    9 P P P B P P P P
    10 B P P B P P P P
    11 P B P B P P P P
    12 B B P B P P P P
    13 P P B B P P P P
    14 B P B B P P P P
    15 P B B B P P P P
    16 B B B B P P P P
    17 P P P P B P P P
    18 B P P P B P P P
    19 P B P P B P P P
    20 B B P P B P P P
    21 P P B P B P P P
    22 B P B P B P P P
    23 P B B P B P P P
    24 B B B P B P P P
    25 P P P B B P P P
    26 B P P B B P P P
    27 P B P B B P P P
    28 B B P B B P P P
    29 P P B B B P P P
    30 B P B B B P P P
    31 P B B B B P P P
    32 B B B B B P P P
    33 P P P P P B P P
    34 B P P P P B P P
    35 P B P P P B P P
    36 B B P P P B P P
    37 P P B P P B P P
    38 B P B P P B P P
    39 P B B P P B P P
    40 B B B P P B P P
    41 P P P B P B P P
    42 B P P B P B P P
    43 P B P B P B P P
    44 B B P B P B P P
    45 P P B B P B P P
    46 B P B B P B P P
    47 P B B B P B P P
    48 B B B B P B P P
    49 P P P P B B P P
    50 B P P P B B P P
    51 P B P P B B P P
    52 B B P P B B P P
    53 P P B P B B P P
    54 B P B P B B P P
    55 P B B P B B P P
    56 B B B P B B P P
    57 P P P B B B P P
    58 B P P B B B P P
    59 P B P B B B P P
    60 B B P B B B P P
    61 P P B B B B P P
    62 B P B B B B P P
    63 P B B B B B P P
    64 B B B B B B P P
    65 P P P P P P B P
    66 B P P P P P B P
    67 P B P P P P B P
    68 B B P P P P B P
    69 P P B P P P B P
    70 B P B P P P B P
    71 P B B P P P B P
    72 B B B P P P B P
    73 P P P B P P B P
    74 B P P B P P B P
    75 P B P B P P B P
    76 B B P B P P B P
    77 P P B B P P B P
    78 B P B B P P B P
    79 P B B B P P B P
    80 B B B B P P B P
    81 P P P P B P B P
    82 B P P P B P B P
    83 P B P P B P B P
    84 B B P P B P B P
    85 P P B P B P B P
    86 B P B P B P B P
    87 P B B P B P B P
    88 B B B P B P B P
    89 P P P B B P B P
    90 B P P B B P B P
    91 P B P B B P B P
    92 B B P B B P B P
    93 P P B B B P B P
    94 B P B B B P B P
    95 P B B B B P B P
    96 B B B B B P B P
    97 P P P P P B B P
    98 B P P P P B B P
    99 P B P P P B B P
    100 B B P P P B B P
    101 P P B P P B B P
    102 B P B P P B B P
    103 P B B P P B B P
    104 B B B P P B B P
    105 P P P B P B B P
    106 B P P B P B B P
    107 P B P B P B B P
    108 B B P B P B B P
    109 P P B B P B B P
    110 B P B B P B B P
    111 P B B B P B B P
    112 B B B B P B B P
    113 P P P P B B B P
    114 B P P P B B B P
    115 P B P P B B B P
    116 B B P P B B B P
    117 P P B P B B B P
    118 B P B P B B B P
    119 P B B P B B B P
    120 B B B P B B B P
    121 P P P B B B B P
    122 B P P B B B B P
    123 P B P B B B B P
    124 B B P B B B B P
    125 P P B B B B B P
    126 B P B B B B B P
    127 P B B B B B B P
    128 B B B B B B B P
    129 P P P P P P P B
    130 B P P P P P P B
    131 P B P P P P P B
    132 B B P P P P P B
    133 P P B P P P P B
    134 B P B P P P P B
    135 P B B P P P P B
    136 B B B P P P P B
    137 P P P B P P P B
    138 B P P B P P P B
    139 P B P B P P P B
    140 B B P B P P P B
    141 P P B B P P P B
    142 B P B B P P P B
    143 P B B B P P P B
    144 B B B B P P P B
    145 P P P P B P P B
    146 B P P P B P P B
    147 P B P P B P P B
    148 B B P P B P P B
    149 P P B P B P P B
    150 B P B P B P P B
    151 P B B P B P P B
    152 B B B P B P P B
    153 P P P B B P P B
    154 B P P B B P P B
    155 P B P B B P P B
    156 B B P B B P P B
    157 P P B B B P P B
    158 B P B B B P P B
    159 P B B B B P P B
    160 B B B B B P P B
    161 P P P P P B P B
    162 B P P P P B P B
    163 P B P P P B P B
    164 B B P P P B P B
    165 P P B P P B P B
    166 B P B P P B P B
    167 P B B P P B P B
    168 B B B P P B P B
    169 P P P B P B P B
    170 B P P B P B P B
    171 P B P B P B P B
    172 B B P B P B P B
    173 P P B B P B P B
    174 B P B B P B P B
    175 P B B B P B P B
    176 B B B B P B P B
    177 P P P P B B P B
    178 B P P P B B P B
    179 P B P P B B P B
    180 B B P P B B P B
    181 P P B P B B P B
    182 B P B P B B P B
    183 P B B P B B P B
    184 B B B P B B P B
    185 P P P B B B P B
    186 B P P B B B P B
    187 P B P B B B P B
    188 B B P B B B P B
    189 P P B B B B P B
    190 B P B B B B P B
    191 P B B B B B P B
    192 B B B B B B P B
    193 P P P P P P B B
    194 B P P P P P B B
    195 P B P P P P B B
    196 B B P P P P B B
    197 P P B P P P B B
    198 B P B P P P B B
    199 P B B P P P B B
    200 B B B P P P B B
    201 P P P B P P B B
    202 B P P B P P B B
    203 P B P B P P B B
    204 B B P B P P B B
    205 P P B B P P B B
    206 B P B B P P B B
    207 P B B B P P B B
    208 B B B B P P B B
    209 P P P P B P B B
    210 B P P P B P B B
    211 P B P P B P B B
    212 B B P P B P B B
    213 P P B P B P B B
    214 B P B P B P B B
    215 P B B P B P B B
    216 B B B P B P B B
    217 P P P B B P B B
    218 B P P B B P B B
    219 P B P B B P B B
    220 B B P B B P B B
    221 P P B B B P B B
    222 B P B B B P B B
    223 P B B B B P B B
    224 B B B B B P B B
    225 P P P P P B B B
    226 B P P P P B B B
    227 P B P P P B B B
    228 B B P P P B B B
    229 P P B P P B B B
    230 B P B P P B B B
    231 P B B P P B B B
    232 B B B P P B B B
    233 P P P B P B B B
    234 B P P B P B B B
    235 P B P B P B B B
    236 B B P B P B B B
    237 P P B B P B B B
    238 B P B B P B B B
    239 P B B B P B B B
    240 B B B B P B B B
    241 P P P P B B B B
    242 B P P P B B B B
    243 P B P P B B B B
    244 B B P P B B B B
    245 P P B P B B B B
    246 B P B P B B B B
    247 P B B P B B B B
    248 B B B P B B B B
    249 P P P B B B B B
    250 B P P B B B B B
    251 P B P B B B B B
    252 B B P B B B B B
    253 P P B B B B B B
    254 B P B B B B B B
    255 P B B B B B B B
    256 B B B B B B B B


    9COL

    1 B B B B B B B B B
    2 B B B B B B B B P
    3 B B B B B B B P B
    4 B B B B B B B P P
    5 B B B B B B P B B
    6 B B B B B B P B P
    7 B B B B B B P P B
    8 B B B B B B P P P
    9 B B B B B P B B B
    10 B B B B B P B B P
    11 B B B B B P B P B
    12 B B B B B P B P P
    13 B B B B B P P B B
    14 B B B B B P P B P
    15 B B B B B P P P B
    16 B B B B B P P P P
    17 B B B B P B B B B
    18 B B B B P B B B P
    19 B B B B P B B P B
    20 B B B B P B B P P
    21 B B B B P B P B B
    22 B B B B P B P B P
    23 B B B B P B P P B
    24 B B B B P B P P P
    25 B B B B P P B B B
    26 B B B B P P B B P
    27 B B B B P P B P B
    28 B B B B P P B P P
    29 B B B B P P P B B
    30 B B B B P P P B P
    31 B B B B P P P P B
    32 B B B B P P P P P
    33 B B B P B B B B B
    34 B B B P B B B B P
    35 B B B P B B B P B
    36 B B B P B B B P P
    37 B B B P B B P B B
    38 B B B P B B P B P
    39 B B B P B B P P B
    40 B B B P B B P P P
    41 B B B P B P B B B
    42 B B B P B P B B P
    43 B B B P B P B P B
    44 B B B P B P B P P
    45 B B B P B P P B B
    46 B B B P B P P B P
    47 B B B P B P P P B
    48 B B B P B P P P P
    49 B B B P P B B B B
    50 B B B P P B B B P
    51 B B B P P B B P B
    52 B B B P P B B P P
    53 B B B P P B P B B
    54 B B B P P B P B P
    55 B B B P P B P P B
    56 B B B P P B P P P
    57 B B B P P P B B B
    58 B B B P P P B B P
    59 B B B P P P B P B
    60 B B B P P P B P P
    61 B B B P P P P B B
    62 B B B P P P P B P
    63 B B B P P P P P B
    64 B B B P P P P P P
    65 B B P B B B B B B
    66 B B P B B B B B P
    67 B B P B B B B P B
    68 B B P B B B B P P
    69 B B P B B B P B B
    70 B B P B B B P B P
    71 B B P B B B P P B
    72 B B P B B B P P P
    73 B B P B B P B B B
    74 B B P B B P B B P
    75 B B P B B P B P B
    76 B B P B B P B P P
    77 B B P B B P P B B
    78 B B P B B P P B P
    79 B B P B B P P P B
    80 B B P B B P P P P
    81 B B P B P B B B B
    82 B B P B P B B B P
    83 B B P B P B B P B
    84 B B P B P B B P P
    85 B B P B P B P B B
    86 B B P B P B P B P
    87 B B P B P B P P B
    88 B B P B P B P P P
    89 B B P B P P B B B
    90 B B P B P P B B P
    91 B B P B P P B P B
    92 B B P B P P B P P
    93 B B P B P P P B B
    94 B B P B P P P B P
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    451 P P P B B B B P B
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    457 P P P B B P B B B
    458 P P P B B P B B P
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    460 P P P B B P B P P
    461 P P P B B P P B B
    462 P P P B B P P B P
    463 P P P B B P P P B
    464 P P P B B P P P P
    465 P P P B P B B B B
    466 P P P B P B B B P
    467 P P P B P B B P B
    468 P P P B P B B P P
    469 P P P B P B P B B
    470 P P P B P B P B P
    471 P P P B P B P P B
    472 P P P B P B P P P
    473 P P P B P P B B B
    474 P P P B P P B B P
    475 P P P B P P B P B
    476 P P P B P P B P P
    477 P P P B P P P B B
    478 P P P B P P P B P
    479 P P P B P P P P B
    480 P P P B P P P P P
    481 P P P P B B B B B
    482 P P P P B B B B P
    483 P P P P B B B P B
    484 P P P P B B B P P
    485 P P P P B B P B B
    486 P P P P B B P B P
    487 P P P P B B P P B
    488 P P P P B B P P P
    489 P P P P B P B B B
    490 P P P P B P B B P
    491 P P P P B P B P B
    492 P P P P B P B P P
    493 P P P P B P P B B
    494 P P P P B P P B P
    495 P P P P B P P P B
    496 P P P P B P P P P
    497 P P P P P B B B B
    498 P P P P P B B B P
    499 P P P P P B B P B
    500 P P P P P B B P P
    501 P P P P P B P B B
    502 P P P P P B P B P
    503 P P P P P B P P B
    504 P P P P P B P P P
    505 P P P P P P B B B
    506 P P P P P P B B P
    507 P P P P P P B P B
    508 P P P P P P B P P
    509 P P P P P P P B B
    510 P P P P P P P B P
    511 P P P P P P P P B
    512 P P P P P P P P P

    Apply ANY bet selection to the appropriate sized Truth Tables, everything resolves to 50%, if you think otherwise, you should be a millionaire.
     
    JAMESBANKROLL009 likes this.
  5. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I've tested styles of play that show positive result after 2000 and even 4000 tested shoe bucking up against a mix of rng and live dealt shoe result. But, Zeus knows that won't resonate with you, hey hey.
     
  6. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    ok. Thanks I will check. You are the first person I have seen every mention this in my talk about baccarat. I have been playing since the first card was dealt in Italy.

    Even a negative strike rate can win with positive progression. A basic approach to play is to look at each hand in the context of the entire Big Road and the entire Bead Plate.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
  7. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Here is an example:

    There are baccarat shoes where Bank or Player is confined to 3 max in a row for the entire shoe. There are baccarat shoes where Bank or Player is confined to 2 max for a good part of a shoe. There are baccarat shoes that are confined to 1 max for a good part of a shoe. This doesn't mean that if you play the next shoe or turn to another table that the same will apply.

    I know for may approach that there are set conditions where it is called to jump off of the base decision and follow other trends. If one or more of the Macau Roads starts on a massive trend I could either ignore it or follow.
     

  8. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the first paragraph, but the second paragraph was wrong. You can't over come those Truth tables even using a progression. "each hand in the context of the Big road / Bead plate", is simply another term for trending, which is a fallacy in a game of non-correlated independent trials.

    This was discussed at length over 10 years ago on the gamblersglen site, the answer then is still the same today, because simply put, a solution can't mathematically exist, it is not mathematically possible.



    Good night
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
  9. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Baccarat is not a game of non-correlated independent trials is my point. Each shoe is fully unique, but has similarities with others unless the exact duplicate is produced. Each shoe has elements/ trends/ formations that have a certain duration and the stronger and longer they are then the more players can identify them and play into them.

    If you believe that baccarat is a game of non-correlated independent trials then the only solution is to not play or always bet Bank.
     
    asymbacguy likes this.
  10. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Advanced math courses?
    Ask your phD candidates what's the Banker's EV when Banker shows 4 and Player third card is an ace.

    Let us know and I'm pretty sure they do not know how baccarat really works.

    First you need to know maths then....

    as.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
  11. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    I'm dead serious.
    Tell us how's the banker 's advantage when it shows 4 giving a third card ace to the player.

    I'm sure your super experts aren't capable to give the correct answer.

    Then let's talking about baccarat.

    as.
     
  12. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Or, for that matter, how is the Banker advantage when it shows 6 and giving a 4 to the Player.

    After all a phD student should know.

    as.
     
  13. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Or, for that matter #3, what's the exact player disadvantage when betting Player.
    Hint: it's not the common fkng -1.24% negative edge widely displayed here and there.

    I'm 100% sure no phD expert will get us the right solution.

    as.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
  14. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Most likely you won't get any right answers here..lol
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019

  15. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    So what there are card by card advantages to each Bank/ Player based on the total value? Baccarat is not poker. Show me a baccarat game where you can bet after the first card is out. Most players get a decent understanding of how strong a side is as each card comes out.

    In fact, I tend to view certain total values and differentials as more or less favorable for each side for the next hand. Naturals on each side can have a certain track record for that baccarat shoe which is in line or far counter to that over larger numbers of hands.

    AP Heat and others have pieces that review the odds of Bank or Player winning as a hand progresses.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
    Junket King likes this.
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    0.645692
    0.610422


    Precisely

    The Player doesn't get a +EV unless it has 7 or more, I have in the past when betting Player let my head be filled with, "only two cards beat me", "good I'm +EV". It does you no good, serves no purpose other than mess with your head.

    BTW - the figures above were borrowed from the Wizard of Odds site, no PhD needed.

    It is a game of non-correlated outcomes, all you are seeing is common occurrences of streak frequencies. So of course there are going to be similarities when singles and doubles consist of 75% of all outcomes.

    However as I've asked time and time again, "what constitutes a trend", 2 hands, 3 or 4.

    Look at the Binary tables above, when you think there is a Trend, the next hand is 50-50, if you define the trend to be something like OLD, DBL or FLD, again there are more avenues for a Trend not to continue than to continue, yes the next hand is a 50-50 proposition, I guess it depends how you define a trend.

    So how do you define a trend, how many hands does it take before you react?

    No the answer is not to only bet Banker, I've played Player dominated shoes for an entire session.

    By the way it was the infamous Mark Howie who was first to post Truth tables over at the GG site, the discussion has been done to death.

    There are certain aspects to be 'had' in regarding those Truth Tables above. I'll leave that for another time.
     
  17. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Trending is a contentious approach. But will admit when playing online I'll dabble with it when the trend appears strong, but won't in a bricks and Mortar casino, the reason is due to the differences shuffle procedures. I much prefer to play mechanical bet options, where I can focus entirely on my staking rather than guessing abilities, which in essence is a fallacy regardless. You guess a few hands correctly and it gives you a false sense of ability which is devoid of any reality.

    Anyway going back to those Binary tables, you can take any group you like, but let's use groups of 4 hands.


    4COL

    B B B B
    B B B P
    B B P B
    B B P P
    B P B B
    B P B P
    B P P B
    B P P P
    P B B B
    P B B P
    P B P B
    P B P P
    P P B B
    P P B P
    P P P B
    P P P P

    You can apply any bet selection you want, triggers, trend, DBL, OLD, FLD, equilibrium v's non-equilibrium, birthday paradox, same v's opposite, bet one side only, stop after any win and wait for the start of next 4 hands.

    When you count the winning hands v's the losing hands the answer is always 50-50, there is no escape, this is a mathematical given.

    To make things easier, you can substitute the above with;

    1- 0 0 0 0
    2- 0 0 0 X
    3- 0 0 X 0
    4- 0 0 X X
    5- 0 X 0 0
    6- 0 X 0 X
    7- 0 X X 0
    8- 0 X X X (where 0 and X can represent either Banker or Player)

    This simplifies testing, not that testing really matter, the answer is always the same, 50-50
    (all bet selections resolve to a 50% strike rate when tested against a set of binary tables)

    Ditto - Same applies to any other group sizing and any other bet selection.

    Regarding testing, which some people do.

    For a 70 hand shoe, there are 1,180,591,620,717,410,000,000 possible shoe combinations. So when you spend weeks testing 1000, 2000 or even 10,000 shoes, it's really not telling you much is it.

    Regarding trending, a quick glance at the binary tables, X0X0X0 or XX00XX clearly indicate you have to act fast if you wish to follow the trend, does the trend end after one hand? Because there are more pathways for a trend to not continue than to continue. One of the reason why I personally in most circumstances give the notion of trending a wide berth.

    So what is left, are we doomed?

    Well there are IMO two factors we can take from those Binary tables, firstly, we can control our bets, we decide how much we bet, I've always have the belief this is a money game. You get hit by a 16-1 shot (from the out-set), we can decide how much such an event is going to cost us.

    Secondly and more importantly, we can pre-decide what pattern is going to inflict a series of losses.

    We should already be aware that singles consist of 50% of all results in the medium term, 25% will consist of doubles and so on. Basically we should avoid bet selections that lose against the most common frequencies of streak lengths (singles and doubles). Rather shift what we prepared to lose against, to those streak lengths that should occur less often (streak of 4's, and beyond). Then to the best of our ability handle the variance using our money management prowess. If you lose or can't handle 1's and 2's, even the 3 streaks, then you are going to be in a rough ride. If you think you can play the shoe, well good luck with that, don't get caught making the switch.



    There is a mechanical bet selection that will capture every trend, so long as trend exists. I think it is called the "Punting Society".

    It is not mine, I never used it, if I find it, I'll lash it up for those that may not have seen it.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
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  18. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

    Joined:
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    You got to get over this. It's not a skill, it's a guess.

    It may be easier to look at groups of decisions and define them as a bias. Sputnik attempted to do this with his series which boiled down to mostly repeats appearing (2+,3+) or mostly chops (1's, 2's). So then you have groups that change (turning points or waves). Of course the longer the bias goes on the better and sure, you got to jump in fast initially with small bets hoping that bias will continue. So then you can look for certain common patterns to bet such as 1212 or 222 or33. OR, in that case just bet OLD and FLD respectively. Pretty simple really. The rest is betting.

    I think it's a mistake to just look for patterns without identifying the overall trend. Just leads to chasing rabbits down a hole.

    What I do is start every shoe with a fixed placement. Only three things can happen for the next up to 6 hands. Win, in which case just continue the fixed placement; lose, ascertain if it is a trend I like and bet that; break even, in which case just continue on. There really is not a lot of thinking involved. When things go sour betting and money management is your back up.

    J
     
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  19. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Member

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    Nov 17, 2015
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    Exactly!
    Is card counting the side bets about non-correlated indipendent trials? Don't think so.
    Further proof is that even card counting BP bets brings in a minuscule advantage. There are no advantages to be taken in a series of perfectly independent outcomes.
    And baccarat doesn't belong to such category.

    as.
     
  20. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
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    Occupation:
    Professional Guesser
    Location:
    Tristan da Cunha
    I don't think R19 was referring to the multitude of side bets which differ from casino to casino. Rather B & P outcomes, card counting offers no advantage, unless you had a deliberately stacked deck. Minuscule would refer to a decimal point advantage as in like Blackjack. Banker v's Player counting doesn't even come close to that, microscopic perhaps.

    Sure there is no advantage in a series of independent outcomes, but you can at least declare the streak length and % portion of the occurrence of that streak length you are willing to risk losing a series of bets against. Wordy as fuck, I know, LOL.
     
    Last edited: Jun 21, 2019

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