Blackjack BJ the Infallible method!

Assuming that the playing hands per shoe are from 45 up to 55, we take an average of 50 hands/shoe.
Assuming that the least wins we can expect during any given shoe is 10 out of 50 decisions then how many would be the equivalent for betting simultaneously 5 boxes?
5 * 50 = 250 bets approximately per shoe.
My estimation is 104 wins in 250 decisions, that's 42 more losses.
10 wins in 50 decisions, that's 40 more losses.

According my calculations this would be the worst possible scenario during any shoe, but if you believe otherwise then please explain your reasoning.

An accumulated bust probability for player and dealer when player is using basic strategy is as follows:

1) Player_No-bust AND Dealer_No-bust: 0.665 * 0.665 = 44% of hands (half favorable to Dealer, half favorable to Player)

2) Player_No-bust AND Dealer_Bust: 0.665 * 0.335 = 22% (all favorable to Player)

3) Player_Bust AND Dealer_No-bust: <0.335 * 0.665 => 18% (all favorable to Dealer)

4) Player_Bust AND Dealer_Bust: <0.335 * 0.335 => 8% (all favorable to Dealer).

In situation 1), Dealer and Player have an equal opportunity to win, lose, or tie.
Let's divide the 44 out of 100 hands equally:
22 favorable to Dealer, 22 in favor of Player, thus Player wins 22 + 22 = 44 hands
Dealer wins 22 + 18 + 8 = 48 hands
We notice now only 92 hands out of 100, mystery? NO!
The 8 missing hands are those 8 cases when the Dealer does NOT even play his/her hands out — the simultaneous bust cases.

But what if we would not play by the book and decide to adapt a conservative approach in order not to have busted hands at all?
In order to do it properly we should not hit when we have 12 or more, all the rest we hit.
We should always split 6's, 7's and 8's, we should split Aces only if we could hit optionally additional card after the first dealt.
In order to do this you must take the decisions for all 5 boxes/bets, if others taking decisions and you only wager on their boxes then they could take the wrong decisions at your expense.

Thus since we are not going to get busted at any hand the key to success is 33.61% is the average probability for the dealer to get busted, or once per 3 hands approximately.

Total BJ Actions: 594,768
Hits to 1st 2-Cards: 297,153
Total Non-Bust Hands: 97,735
Total Dealer Bust Hands (*): 199,880

Percentage Dealer Bust: 199,880 / 594,768 = 33.61%

Natural Blackjacks (10+A): 64 / 1,326 = 4.83%

Total Complete BJ Hands: 297,615

Out of 10,000,000 simulated decisions the maximum delay for the dealer to get busted was 1 in 46 hands/decisions.
46 hands are about 1 shoe, in other words, we should expect at least 1 dealer's bust per shoe.

By combining the accumulated wins and losses after every hand for each box, we are calculating the overall balance and divide it by 5.
If you are in positive balance then you keep flat betting, when you get in negative divide your loss by 5 and bet the calculated sum on all your 5 boxes.
If the sum is less than minimum bet then keep betting the minimum, when the sum is decimal round it up to the closest whole number.
You keep this ongoing calculation only when in loss and till the dealer gets busted, after he/she get busted you restart the count/calculation from scratch.
We divide by 5 simply because we are betting on 5 boxes, therefore when the dealer gets busted we will get paid the amount in all 5 boxes.

steps bet unit$ lost / net profit

1 5*1 -1 / 5
2 5*1 -2 / 4
3 5*1 -3 / 3
4 5*1 -4 / 2
5 5*1 -5 / 1
6 5*2 -7 / 5
7 5*2 -9 / 3
8 5*2 -11 / 1
9 5*3 -14 / 4
10 5*3 -17 / 1
11 5*4 -21 / 3
12 5*5 -26 / 4
13 5*6 -32 / 4
14 5*7 -39 / 3
15 5*8 -47 / 1
16 5*10 -57 / 3
17 5*12 -69 / 3
18 5*14 -83 / 1
19 5*17 -100 / 2
20 5*21 -121 / 5
21 5*25 -146 / 4
22 5*30 -176 / 4
23 5*36 -212 / 4
24 5*43 -255 / 3
25 5*52 -307 / 5
26 5*62 -369 / 3

(5*62)+307= 617 units BR should be sufficient even for most tough shoes.

So what are you waiting for??
Go out there and make some money, enjoy yourselves!

 

"
Out of 10,000,000 simulated decisions the maximum delay for the dealer to get busted was 1 in 46 hands/decisions.
46 hands are about 1 shoe, in other words, we should expect at least 1 dealer's bust per shoe. "

My calendar must be running 2 months and 1 day fast !

 

What do you mean?

 

Of course you cannot lose all of the decisions, there are going to be wins including BJ naturals too, what it matters is the difference between your wins and losses.
My method achieves net profit for each and every shoe, however, I gave no promises regarding the size of gain because this depends from how much favorable the results are going to be.

Waiting for un-busted hands could save you losses but also could cost you missed wins, therefore I find no value in waiting.
617 units is pretty low actually if you consider that you'll net profit each and every shoe, the only question is how much.

The best application for my method is by organizing a team of 5 members, each one bets his/her own box (on the same table), divide the mutual bankroll equally to all 5 players, divide accumulated net profit equally in 5 shares after every session.
Everyone plays according to plan, a minimum of 600 units BR divided by 5 players equals 120 units invested from each member.
But I'd suggest 200 units per member of the team in order to feel more comfortable with 200*5= 1000 units total BankRoll, it's mostly for psychological reasons.
However, 600 units (total) must be sufficient and also the absolute minimum.

 

Why are you telling us then? Go make your bazillion dollars anonymously in the casinos.

 

By telling you it doesn't prevent me of doing so.
But don't worry, I understand that you've read and heard lot of craps through the years and you were surprised by someone (me) who wanted to share something of real value rather than the junk you could see on roulette forum.

 

Trust me, what you posted has NO value whatsoever.

 

According to you.

 

No... he's right. I'd go one step further and say not only does your "method" provide zero value, I would say it provides negative value (-EV... see what I did there?).

Blackjack is a solved game (and has been for a very long time), so why are you trying to reinvent the wheel?

 

I see that you have just registered on this forum in order to post your negative and unfounded comments in my thread, if I were you and truly believe what I'm saying, I would not even bother.

Allow me to know better what I see and do everyday of my life, thank you.

 

Your bets are not being correlated with your advantage and your "system" is complete nonsense. Good luck with it. It won't be long before you go broke with this "ingenious" idea.

 

First,welcome Ryemo. Good to see you posting. Tongue in cheek, I will just say that one of the sites you frequent, has a couple guys that have been trying to re-invent the wheel (as per blackjack solved game) for a couple years now. Actually, I am not sure if they are really trying to re-invent the wheel or just convince others that they have re-invented the wheel. But I will move on.

As per the infallible BJ method being discussed here: There is no betting scheme alone that can overcome a negative advantage game. Period. End of discussion.

 

KJ, you're missing the gist of this site. Reality doesn't apply to angels and geniuses. Angels can beat blackjack; geniuses can beat roulette.

 

So what's your point?

Everyone is free to express his/her opinion in polite manner, however it remains just a subjective opinion unless it's backed up with undeniable facts.

So far, despite my initial extensive analysis, I've seen only subjective opinions, whether they reflect reality and up to which degree is another thing.
Everyone is free to draw their own conclusions.

 

Good to see you here too KJ. Long time no talk. I hope all is well!

 

Blueangel, you are using words like opinion and phrases 'draw your own conclusions' incorrectly.

If someone comes here and posts that redietz has a god awful haircut....that is an "opinion". And we are all free to take a gander at redietz and draw our own conclusion as to whether he has a bad haircut or not.

But is someone comes here and posts that the world is flat, well that is not an opinion. It is a fallacy. It is proven fact that it is not. Anyone drawing their own conclusions as to whether the world is flat is just spouting nonsense. That is not an opinion. It is a proven, settled matter.

That no betting system alone can over come a negative advantage or negative value game is proven fact. There can be no opinions or drawing conclusions on the matter.

But for the sake of discussion I will play along a bit. It looks like your "system" is based on winning all five wagers when the dealer breaks. To do that you would have to be playing a no break strategy, which is a really horrible strategy that results in an enormous house advantage.

In other words you can not hit your 12, or 13, or 14, or 15, or 16, against any dealer hand. You can't hit your 13 vs dealer 9, or your 15 vs dealer 10, or your 12 vs dealer 8. or your 14 vs dealer 7. Because if you do hit any of these hands there is a chance that you could break and then even if the dealer goes on to break, you have already lost that hand. These (plus many more) are all basic strategy hit plays because hitting gives the best chance to win the hand, but with a no bust strategy which you need to be playing, you can not risk hitting and busting.

Playing basic strategy results in winning approximately 43% of hands, but playing a no bust strategy, which you would need to play to assure all 5 of your hands are alive if the dealer does bust, probably results in winning half that 43% of hands. (that's a guess....I haven't done the math as it isn't even worth doing). Again this is just a horrible, horrible strategy, which will result in an enormous house advantage.

 

Dear Cool J,

I respect your opinion, I'm aware you are an elder member of the BJ community, however your mainstream and obsolete ideas are not good enough.
Perhaps 30 to 40 years back you'd be chairman of the board, but unfortunately for you and the majority we are on 2017, therefore you need a time machine in order to go back in time and apply your rusty strategy.

You don't really expect to gain an edge with 40 years old principles, don't you?
Do I have to remind you about the continuous shufflers and the multiple decks?
Besides why do you think casinos still offer BJ with the same rules despite all those books and success stories about card counting?

Your time is over, let the new (r)evolution take its course and create its own unique reality.
What you, and anyone else, consider possible and real, that becomes your life frame.
Your reality, based on mainstream perceptions, doesn't affect mine, I've decided to create my own rather than follow like a sheep, rather than see and do like monkey, rather than listen and speak like parrot.

The world needs more innovative pioneers rather than sheeps, monkeys and parrots.
You belong on the past, I belong in the future, you've made your choice, I've made mine.

 

Righto, Angel. You're one of the many innovative geniuses on this site who have managed via insights and/or superpowers to circumvent probability. My sincere congratulations.

I especially like your observation that probability and outcomes are a matter of personal choice. If there's ever a vote for psychotic innovative site genius, you've got mine, but by a narrow margin. You need to amp it up a bit.

 

Go to a legit blackjack forum and post your nonsense and see what happens. You and your losing system will get ripped to shreds. Why? Because it's a 100% loser.

As said before, if you could win with it, you'd never tell a soul and you'd be in casinos making mega bank! Same with all of yours and these other idiots roulette garbage you all spew.

 

I'm sorry... but you're an idiot. I'm sure KJ was probably thinking the same thing, but he was too nice to say it. Have fun with your system.