Baccarat Can Martingle work?

Before the debate and individual opinions, lets talk about gambling with systems in general. Everybody talks about odds and probabilities which is so important and true BUT in reality those calculations are based on long term. When there an imbalance in the outcome of decisions, people were quick to point out that EVENTUALLY things will even out. This is because the math part did not play out right. Even money bets should evened out in the long run. So my question is, How long is long run? How big is the Universe?

As a dealer, I totaly believed in trends. Trends are outcomes of 3 of the same side in a row OR 4 when two different sides are involved. Jump in and flat bet and if you lose, quit. The damage is just one bet. If the trend continues, you will see gains. The excuse of 'everytime I jumped in, the trend changes' totally prevent people from winning.

OK, back to Martingle. Martingle is money management. Now let us look at the bet selection. There is NOT one bet selection method that is better than the other. Everything works when it is working. Therefore if we do a 5 step Martingale risking 31 units to win 3 to 4 units a session for 5 sessions a day, we'll be in good shape.

Never make 5 consecutive bets and never bet the same thing everyday. Chart the shoe and ONLY bet when trends occurred. In fact quit after losing one bet. In other words, when you lose, it has to be 5 bets at different trends and NOT 5 in a row on one trend.

Win 1/2 your bankroll (16 units a day) with 8 hrs of gambling. 20 days of work in a month. 14 winning days and 6 losing day at worse. 14x16 = 224 units minus 6x31 = 186. Net win 224-186 = 38 units.
Play with $100 units and it will replace your normal job. Play $10 to $50 a unit will provide extra dispensible money but, still have to keep your job.

At the moment, I use a 5 step Martingle 1,2,4,8,16 playing with a $25 unit on Imperial Baccarat machines in Vegas 5 days a week for 8 units profit a day. I have only 2 losses (31x2=62) and 16 winnig days (8x16=128). 128-62=66 units x$25 a unit = $1650. Not bad for this months's side income.

The point I would like to stress is NEVER use same trigger to start betting. NEVER make 5 consecutive bets. Chart, Chart & more Charting.

 

Martingale gives the bettor an edge.

The problem is betting limits and running out of money.

 

Actually no it doesn't. It merely increases the amount of money the player exposes to the house edge while chasing losses.

 

maybe you misunderstood me

martingale is a full proof strategy that will ALWAYS win

the problem is running out of money and/or table limits

so martingale is not a practical or playable strategy

if you were rich enough to successfully play marty with no limits, you would not be gambling in the first place

 

I know it "seems" as though it should work with enough money, but theoretically that's just not the case. It's like assuming that you could eventually reach zero by repeatedly dividing any whole number by two. You can get real close, but you can never quite reach it.

1. All best must be resolved.
2. The amount bet has no effect on the house edge.
3. There's a negative long term expectation.

 

the bottom line is martingale beats any even chance casino game if table limits were removed and you had the bankroll

that being said, for someone to have that kind of bankroll they wouldnt be doing this anyway

 

If you removed the table limits to the point that you could have an infinite bankroll, then eventually you'd become infinitely in debt.
The reason is the house edge would ensure that you marched farther and farther away from break even as you played.

 

Same crap over and over and over and over never ever changing never adding anything just crap. Why not head over to Corner 17 on Delmar and chill out?

 

Gotta disagree

Those limits exist for a reason

 

Because the casino administrations keep the correlation between the minimum and maximum at 6 or 7 just about any table minimum maximum you'll find. For that exact reason you are right RG.

 

Nope, that's not the reason.

The reason the limits exist has to do with game protection and to smooth the casino's variance with the game and has zero to do with the Martingale.

 

Even thats still not a "winner". Why? The goofs that feel if you WAIT for 8 in a row of the same EC, then start the Marty. They then think its HG time!! (lol) Been there, did all this.

Ken

 

Guys , I am talking about a 5 step Martingle. 1,2,4,8,16. Its 31 units of bankroll!!!! Who is talking about a fail-safe system?
Again, if you believed in math and not trends, you shouldn't be gambling at all. I am trying to find a method that involves winning and losing but would come out ahead in the long run.

 

That is why I never buck a trend. Try to spot a trend and follow. NOT against. If the first bet lost, quit!!!. Make your double up 2nd bet when you spot the next trend. I know the math is the same but trends RULE in gambling. NOT maths.

 

"Trends" LMFAO!!!!

 

The trend is your friend. I thought everyone knew that! Sheesh!

 

We can dance around it for a year

The fact remains

Using Marty is a fail proof way to win

The hurdle is running out of money and/or house limits

That being said, being rich enough to carry out Marty would make said individual having no need to play in the first place

 

You're missing the biggest problem. It's the house edge. Even if you were to flat bet, no Marty, after an infinite number of spins you'd be infinitely far away from break even. Every spin of the wheel walks the player further and further away from even because of the short payout. This is why, even with an infinite bankroll, that the Marty won't cut it.

 

Do you notice there isn't one game in a casino that is exactly set up like a coin flip. I am NOT talking about the house edge. Why isn't the Roulette wheel set up in a way that one half is totally black and the other half is totally red? Its because when one side go nuts it will run like crazy. The way the games are set up is to avoid "wild" patterns. Baccarat are set up with 8 decks. 4 deck blackjack games are gone because if the shoe is favorable to the player, the player can hurt the house more because more hands are being dealt. 1 and 2 deck games have limited hands so the damage is minimized. 6 and 8 deck games gives the house more edge therefore they are being widely offered. A lot of casinos have changed the 6 deck games to the high limit lounge only.

So, why are the casinos doing this and you are still sticking to the math and luck part? What makes people win in a casino? Its because of trends and runs. I know because I am a dealer and there are people who only play when the situation is ideal. They might lose but the wins seems to out do the losses. Remember PLAY TO WIN and not PLAY TO PLAY

If there are no trends, there will be no winners. If you really want to gamble and win, put your wisdom on trends and runs. Its never too late. Even if you lose, its one bet.
Again, if the math side is the discussion here, DON"T GAMBLE!!!! PERIOD.