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Forex Currently learning Forex, I would be glad to hear about your experiences

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by Bago, Feb 15, 2019.

  1. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Hi Richie, I am currently learning Forex, I would be glad to hear about your experience since you seem to have some. Thanks.
     
  2. Richie

    Richie Member

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    Hi Bago,

    My personal views:

    Don't trade more than 2% of your BR at a time.

    Aim for a minimum 4% profit level.

    Don't listen to talking heads on financial channels.

    Only trade 4hr/daily/weekly. Do not scalp.

    Stick to the majors

    Don't take positions just before Non Farm Payrolls and interest rate announcements.

    Losing is fine, even if you only win 50% of the time you will still be in profit if using good MM and ensuring profits are at least double yor risk of 2%.

    Use a good broker, avoid bucket shops when account grows bigger.

    Study trading psychology.

    Hold off trading until after Brexit next month, it will send major shock waves through the markets if we leave with no deal.

    Forget demo as soon as possible, use real cash, even if only really small amounts, it will prepare you emotionally for when you trade larger sums.

    Dont use signal services.

    Get good charting software.

    Study technical analysis, resistance and support levels, fibonnacci retracement levels.

    Always set a stop loss and your profit levels when placing the trade.

    There is so much more, but hope some of this helps.

    All the best
     
    Bago likes this.
  3. Richie

    Richie Member

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    Forgot to mention:

    I blew my first account through greed.
    I blew my second account through chasing loses and fear of placing trades etc.
    I kept my 3rd account, which has paid for the first two accounts and then some. Part of the learning curve I would say. Seems good traders have to learn this way.
    I stick to my method, if I am wrong and the trade fails, that is fine...no one wins all the time.

    Originally I would spend hours everyday in front of the screens, not good. Much healthier doing a bit of chart study, place trade, Fk off and check once a day for 5mins until TP or SL triggered.

    When it became boring I became more profitable.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2019
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  4. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Thanks Richie, do you pay any attention to the japanese candlestick patterns such as hammers, doji, darkcloud cover etc...? I read that they are known to be good reversal patterns with good odds of success.
     
  5. Richie

    Richie Member

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    I use candlesticks. The higher the time frame the better. A doji on weekly for example, at the top/bottom of a long trend gets my attention that a reversal could be on the cards. They don't always work, but a high percentage do. Price could bang around at that level for a few weeks as bulls/bears fight it out, sometimes though, price reverses fast and keeps going. Sometimes price will jump above/below reversal candle to take out the stops, something to watch out for.

    Those would be bread and butter trades as I call them, if it does reverse and keep going then SL is brought down a certain % each week to lock in more and more profit.
     
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  6. Richie

    Richie Member

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    If you saw a doji, hanging man etc, it tells you the trading psychology at that point in time. Sometimes it is better to wait for confirmation in the following candle. At the top of a trend for example, a bullish candle, followed by a hammer/hanging man/doji etc followed by a bearish candle is a very strong signal, but these still do not work all the time. However, it does stack the odds in your favour.
    If I noticed the above pattern on weekly, I would work down through daily and to the 4hr for a good entry point.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2019
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  7. Richie

    Richie Member

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    Reversal candles or OHLC, combined with a previous historical area of resistance, at a fib extension, at a major trend line etc are good indicators the the reversal could have legs.

    Obviously other traders know stops will be clustered above/below these levels and they may drive price quickly to these and collect/get a better entry point, before the reversal gets going.
     

  8. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Thanks Richie, I understand what you are telling me, I am following a good analyst and he is using the same principles you are explaining. Recently EUR/USD has been very hard to follow, some traps appeared, there has been a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily datas that didn't not produce its effect on support around 1,13. I may disagree with you concerning following only major pairs, I have seen more cleaned graphs and patterns on less followed pairs such has EUR/CAD CAD/JPY etc, but I am still a beginner so time will tell.
     
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  9. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Richie, if we applied Turbo's Roulette HolyGrail on Forex, then we would just need to buy for example EUR/USD at a random price and let it run until it gives some profit, even if we have to wait 2 years and a drawdown of 15K had to be seen, but until we close the trade it is not a loss... think about it o_O
     
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  10. Richie

    Richie Member

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    Hi Bago,

    EUR/USD, you've been trying to enter a position whilst this pair has been in sideways chop since Nov 2018. Not a good place. Pull up a weekly, look at Jan/Feb 2018, those are 3 good reversal candles. There was a quick attempt to take out tight stops like I mentioned before, but the end of that uptrend was in place. It signaled the start of the current down trend that breached the lower major trend line and has lasted a year now.

    The EUR and GBP are going to chop like crazy until the end of next month's Brexit, many traders are on the sidelines, there is not much volume.

    I only suggested major pairs as that is where the most (although low at the moment) volume is. Be careful with the JPY, Jan 3rd kicked a lot of traders in the nuts. I wasn't trading Yen at the time, but I spat out my coffee when I saw it lol.

    Good luck with it all, whatever pairs you trade, keeping it simple seems to work. I don't use indicators such as MACD, RSI etc(apart from Fibs), systems, signals etc. A 50/100/200MA can help show how far price has deviated from mean price and potential support/resistance zones, but trend lines, previous s+r, fibs and price action works well.
     
  11. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Brent daily chart Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Richie

    Richie Member

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    Sweet reversal on weekly ending Jan 10th. Slide 3rd and 4th candles together and you get a perfect 3 candle reversal. Price has now broken through resistance and the 1st Fib retracement level from Oct-Dec. The inverted H&S is a bit weak, but if you had entered on the 14th jan (a Monday...do not enter on Friday afternoons) when the reversal candles on weekly completed you would be sitting nicely now with a SL at break even. Nice trade, I'm not in it though, problem with Brent or WTO is jawboning from anyone swings price. Well spotted though :)
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2019
  13. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Do you trade also indices or only currency pairs?.
     
  14. Richie

    Richie Member

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    As well as FX:

    Sugar, (still holding Shorts from Sept 2016, look at those sweet reversals on weekly Sept 2016, probably kill it before Brexit and TP)

    Oil, (only sometimes, been put off it this last year due to all the jawboning. Waiting till after Brexit)

    Gold, out of positions till after Brexit, Silver: never, more manipulated than a casino whore's knickers on a Saturday night.

    Nat Gas, holding Short since beginning Dec.

    Might jump on Bitcoin if it gets down to 1950 area.

    I only play long term trades with those, but FX is my mistress.
     

  15. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Ok, I will share some graphs here when I believe a setup is interesting and you will tell me your opinion. As Turbo put us in his ignore list, there should be no complaints.
     
  16. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Richie, the analyst I'm following likes Range strategies because you can optimise the Risk/Reward ratio to 1:3 putting the SL just below the support and TP at the last resistance area.
     
  17. Richie

    Richie Member

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    We're on his ignore list? Great, I feel all special.

    No probs, will have a look at your charts. Difference between turbo and me is, I don't talk in riddles and bullsh*t. If you talked "random" like he does on an FX forum they would kick you in the nuts.

    Will be away for couple days, B&M beckons. Will look at charts Sun or Mon.

    All the best
    Richie
     
  18. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    Richie, EURCAD Parrallel Channel forming on daily chart.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Richie

    Richie Member

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    Hi Bago,

    What you see from these analysts is a lot of "Could", "Should" "if" etc.

    I've had a look at EUR/CAD on my charts. I personally would say that this is not a trade I would look to enter, as the boat already sailed at the beginning of the year. I would say to expect a lot of choppy price action for the next few weeks until Brexit. A no-deal Brexit will affect the EUR (and obviously GBP) in a HUGE way and send tsunamis through the markets. Most traders are sitting on the sidelines observing. To try and trade the EUR/CAD right now, in my honest opinion may just leave you with a position underwater only to be smashed next month. On the other hand it could work out, but we are talking Risk/Reward here and the risk is not worth it.

    The key to this game is patience, allow the price action to determine your entry. Do not look to enter because you need to, you will save your bank roll this way buddy.

    Probably not the answer you needed, but just being honest.

    All the best
    Richie
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2019
  20. Richie

    Richie Member

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    PS Forgot to mention, you stated you like to range trade, sorry, missed that. Even so, range trading, I still wouldn't get into a position on any EUR at the moment.
     

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