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Baccarat Cutting It Down

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Frank Scoblete, Nov 10, 2015.

  1. Frank Scoblete

    Frank Scoblete Active Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2015
    Likes:
    70
  2. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Likes:
    69
    Hello Frank!

    It's true that the general plan of reducing the betting will help us in many forms: losing less, be more concentrated of what is actually happening and other issues, anyway this alone is not sufficìent to be a consistent winner.

    Truely, diluting the betting is the only way to get and edge. If there is any, no one single person in the world can win at baccarat wagering every hand or a large part of hands.

    The reason, imo, is simple: can we guess more often than not betting a large part of the mostly random world of phenomenons?
    No way.

    Mathematicians and experts will say there's no point to wait as any hand will be 50/50 placed (or almost 50/50 placed).
    Well it's just right on that "almost" word we should focus our attention.

    Let me express my idea of the game.

    Baccarat is a dependent process game and a finite card distribution game with 100% accuracy.
    Moreover, 8.4% of the total hands are hugely mathematically shifted toward one side, the banker chance.
    Within such amount the B side will have a 15.86% advantage over the player chance.

    We all know that card counting won't make the job, still a perfectly set up card removal software dictates that there are mathematically advantaged bets, unfortunately such edge is very very small. Anyway it exists.
    According to E. Jacobsen, like you a very respected person among the gambling world (who still keeps denying any statistical advantage for the player and he's completely wrong), the perfect strategy should be the one capable to recognize the profitable situations upon the cards removal. A thing only a pc could do, so the idea is worthless being electronic devices prohibited into casinos.
    However, such pc results have shown that the perfect B/P average ratio to bet is nearly 3/1 placed. More precisely, about 3/4 of the wagered profitable bets are made on B side, nearly 1/5 on P side, the rest dictates to wager ties.

    I've found interesting such results.

    First, we see that even the mathematically disadvantaged P bet could have the best of it after some circumstances apparition. It's a card composition issue but it doesn't matter.
    Secondly, we see that the advantaged B bet cannot be more right than 3/4 of the profitable betting situations.

    Coincidentally I found that by a mere statistical approach, of course not based upon strict mathematical findings, the best betting way to get an edge (yes an edge!) will include an almost 3/1 BP betting ratio.

    Naturally such profitable bets are quite rare and are not "sure" by any means as not supported by mathematics.

    Nevertheless we know that itlr B1<B2<B3 and P1>P2>P3, but any proposition is too small and too variance influenced to get us an edge (obviously, otherwise baccarat wouldn't exist)

    Imo, the only tool to get such discrepancies efficiently working is trying to amplify them.
    If P1 amount is higher than P2 and every other superior pattern but the degree is too low, we should work to amplify it. And such work may only come out from a careful and long patterns' study.

    We are not trending, because trending leads to nowhere, instead we are patiently waiting the favourable situations where B is more likely than P or P is more likely than B because is what emerged by very long data testing.

    No matter why and how we are doing this and besides the fact of thinking we have an edge or not, we should dilute at most our betting.

    So we made the same conclusion by different perspectives.

    Take care

    as.
     
  3. Rinzler

    Rinzler New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2015
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    49
    If you really want to "cut it down", don't go to a casino until you have a proved winning method which can be concealed for some time.

    Don't waste your time with SP/AP play. Neither can win because you have to bet big to win big.
     
  4. Anna Loudon

    Anna Loudon Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2015
    Likes:
    9
    Occupation:
    retired
    Location:
    Schiller Park, Illinois
    What is SP AP mean anyway I do not understand that statement. But like many players I want to play a portion of a shoe and then move to another shoe if I keep loosing because there is no reason to try to beat a dying horse imo. And to be honest, I am tired of doing that I might as well just go to the cashiers cage and just hand them all my money without playing. Wonder how casinos would react to someone attempting to do such a thing to save time?
     

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