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Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by Andrea ForexMart, Oct 4, 2016.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    US stock market under pressure from Russia-Ukraine conflict

    S&P 500

    The US stock market plunged, while the US dollar advanced. The situation in Ukraine and strong data on US nonfarm payrolls.

    Major US indices ended lower at the end of the week: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5%, the NASDAQ Composite slid by 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.8%.

    S&P 500: 4,329

    Friday's statistics on the US labor market for February turned out to be positive. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 678,000, beating expectations and notching the best month for jobs growth since July. However, this increase followed a fall in December caused by the Omicron outbreak in the US. This means that the labor market has somewhat recovered. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 4.0% in January. In general, the market has almost fully recovered to pre-COVID levels in terms of employment growth and the jobs level.

    As for Russia's military actions in Ukraine, the country continues to attack in several directions. Its forces are trying to encircle Kyiv and Kharkov. In the south, the Russians have opened a land corridor between Crimea and the Russian border in the east. Russia is seeking to expand the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

    The West is discussing new sanctions amid Russia's ongoing attack on Ukraine. Now traders fear that further sanctions will directly limit Russian oil and gas shipments. According to the German authorities, they are ready for such a scenario.

    Two rounds of Russia-Ukraine peace talks have yielded almost no results. A third round of negotiations between the parties is set to take place this weekend.

    USDX: 98.48. The US dollar hit a new annual high on both the situation in Ukraine and strong data on the US labor market. The Fed is still on track to raise interest rates on March 16.

    USD/CAD: 1.2725. The pair continues to trade within the range of 1.2600 - 1.2800

    Conclusion: The events unfolding in Ukraine remain the main factor driving the market. However, US stocks seem to be ready to gain on any signs of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.56%

    At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.56% to a 6-month low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.73%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.28%.

    Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 13.30 points or 6.76% to close at 210.00. Chevron Corp rose 8.49 points or 5.24% to close at 170.53. Boeing Co rose 4.63 points or 2.74% to close at 173.80.

    Shares of Coca-Cola Co were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 2.42 points (3.96%), ending the session at 58.66. Procter & Gamble Company rose 3.96% or 6.05 points to close at 146.79 while UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shed 2.75% or 13.41 points to close at 473.46.

    Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Enphase Energy Inc, which rose 10.82% to 175.99, SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which gained 10.41% to close at 328.91, and also shares of Quanta Services Inc, which rose 8.17% to close the session at 116.83.

    The biggest losers were Seagate Technology PLC, which shed 9.51% to close at 90.57. Shares of ConAgra Foods Inc shed 8.22% to end the session at 30.93. Quotes of Intuitive Surgical Inc decreased in price by 7.98% to 269.32.

    Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 203.31% to 1.00, Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 88.49% to close at 1.15. as well as shares of Westport Fuel Systems Inc, which rose 52.63% to end the session at 2.03.

    The drop leaders were shares of Imperial Petroleum Inc, which fell 43.33% to close at 4.25. Shares of Inspirato Inc lost 42.78% to end the session at 15.25. Quotes of Digital Brands Group Inc decreased in price by 30.61% to 1.36.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1694) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1502), while quotes of 147 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2069 companies rose in price, 1727 fell, and 265 remained at the level of the previous close.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.62% to 35.13.

    Gold futures for April delivery added 3.12%, or 62.35, to $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for April delivery rose 4.44%, or 5.30, to $124.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.06%, or 0.08, to $129.27 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.00% to 1.09, while USD/JPY edged up 0.01% to hit 115.67.

    Futures on the USD index fell 0.17% to 99.12.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Trading plan for USDJPY for March 10, 2022

    Technical outlook:
    USDJPY rallied through 116.19 highs during early hours of trade on Thursday. The wave structure still remains bearish until prices stay below 116.35 mark as bears remain inclined to be back in control from here. A break below 115.60 will confirm that a lower top is in place around 116.19 and that prices are dragging lower towards 114.40 at least.

    USDJPY could drop towards 113.50 and 112.50 in the next few trading sessions. The potential double top reversal pattern will be confirmed on a break below 113.50 mark, going forward. Alternatively, the currency pair is drifting sideways within a rising wedge since 116.35 highs. If the alternate count unfolds, prices could break above 116.35 mark producing a thrust wave higher towards 117.50.

    USDJPY needs to break below 114.40 initial support at least, to rule out any further upside or triangle breakout. Even if prices break higher above 116.35 mark, upside remains limited and bears might be back in control sooner than expected. Either way, expect a bearish reversal from here or from 117.00-50 mark.

    Trading plan:
    Potential drop through 109.00 against 118.50

    Trading plan for Gold for March 10, 2022

    Technical outlook:
    Gold seems to have carved a meaningful top around $2,070 mark on Tuesday. The yellow metal has faced formidable resistance just ahead of the critical swing high around $2,075 in August 2021. Prices are expected to drop one more time through $1,940-45 mark before producing a meaningful pullback going forward.

    Gold prices also surpassed the Fibonacci 1.618 extension seen around $2,010 levels as highlighted on the 4H chart here. The extended last leg rally came to an abrupt end around $2,070 as bears came back in control. The downside potential targets remain $1,880 and $1,780 in the medium term. Ideally, prices will remain below $2,070 mark.

    Gold finds immediate price support around $1,940, followed by $1,880 and further; while resistance is not fixed at $2,070 mark respectively. A break below $1,940 will confirm that bears are back in control and the trend has reversed for long time. The yellow metal remains a good candidate to be sold on rallies thereafter.

    Trading plan:
    Potential drop to $1,940 in the near term.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.34%

    At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.43%, the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.95%.

    Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 4.55 points or 2.74% to close at 170.82. Walmart Inc rose 3.17 points (2.27%) to close at 142.63. Dow Inc rose 0.83 points or 1.39% to close at 60.63.

    Shares of Apple Inc became the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 4.43 points (2.72%), ending the session at 158.52. Procter & Gamble Company was up 2.57% or 3.83 points to close at 144.94, while Cisco Systems Inc was down 2.16% or 1.21 points to close at 54.71.

    Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Halliburton Company, which rose 8.93% to hit 37.95, Baker Hughes Co, which gained 8.67% to close at 36.74, and Mosaic Co, which rose 7.74% to end the session at 62.19.

    Etsy Inc was the biggest loser, shedding 5.35% to close at 136.98. Shares of EPAM Systems Inc lost 4.86% to end the session at 188.76. Quotes of MSCI Inc decreased in price by 4.69% to 465.26.

    Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 138.10% to hit 1.50, AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd, which gained 102.37% to close at 3.42 , as well as shares of Hoth Therapeutics Inc, which rose 38.79% to close the session at 0.80.

    The biggest losers were Trean Insurance Group Inc, which shed 51.70% to close at 3.40. Shares of Fossil Group Inc lost 37.51% and ended the session at 9.08. Quotes TherapeuticsMD Inc fell in price by 27.50% to 0.29.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1836) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1367), and quotes of 128 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,282 companies fell in price, 1,463 rose, and 253 remained at the level of the previous close.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 6.84% to 30.23.

    Gold futures for April delivery added 0.68% or 13.60 to hit $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures fell 2.64%, or 2.87, to $105.83 a barrel. Futures for Brent oil for May delivery fell 0.04%, or 0.04, to $109.15 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.05% to 1.10, while USD/JPY rallied 0.00% to hit 116.14.

    Futures on the USD index rose by 0.58% to 98.53.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Start of week in cryptocurrency market

    The first cryptocurrency fell to $37,100 last week. This was followed by BTC's soaring to $42,500. Digital gold is trading at $39,100 and has a market capitalisation of $743 billion.

    According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of virtual asset data, the total capitalisation of the crypto market fell 1.3% to $1.81 trillion in the past week.

    In November 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high, soaring above the $69,000 mark. Since then, the value of the coin has fallen by more than 40%.

    The unpredictable behaviour of the digital coin market has experts making the most unexpected forecasts about its future. For example, many crypto-enthusiasts believe Bitcoin will remain in a small value range in the near future. The reason for the main digital coin's indecision, in their view, remains the foggy prospects in the global economic and political situation. The serious conflict in eastern Europe and the high risks are preventing investors from making big investments in both the crypto market and US stock exchanges.

    However, some experts believe that the current volatility in global markets can benefit bitcoin. For example, Steve Wozniak, a well-known American computer programmer, recently said that BTC will soon reach the $100,000 mark. Wozniak believes that the main incentives for the digital coin to take such a leap are the tense geopolitical situation, the constantly growing interest of investors in cryptocurrencies and a soaring inflation rate.

    By the way, many analysts have repeatedly called Bitcoin one of the most inflation-resistant assets in the world.

    In any case, the focus of this week's crypto market remains the US Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

    Meanwhile, Russians coming to the United Arab Emirates are actively selling billions of dollars' worth of digital currency. Amid fears of their own assets being locked up, they are seeking to convert crypto into fiat money and then buying real estate in the UAE.

    Earlier, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed on his Twitter account that he had no plans to get rid of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin. Musk explained his decision with data from an article on inflation in the international business newspaper Financial Times.

    Musk went on to advise his social media followers to invest in physical assets. "It is generally better to own physical things like a home or stock in companies you think make good products, than dollars when inflation is high," he wrote.

    Following the Tesla CEO's tweet, the value of Dogecoin instantly rose by 10%.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 15/03/2022

    The European Union, as Josep Borrel said, seems to have really exhausted all possibilities for sanctions against Russia. The new sanctions package can be called purely symbolic, as it affects only a number of individuals and legal entities. In addition, Brussels intends to apply to the World Trade Organization for the suspension of the most favored nation regime in relation to Russia. But this point will have practically no effect, since Russia has not exported any goods to Europe anyway, except for raw materials, of course. So the introduction of protective duties, especially against the background of full-scale sanctions, will not affect the Russian economy in any way. It turns out that at least the European Union does not intend to further strengthen the sanctions confrontation, and it is quite possible that Russia will reciprocate. Which of course somewhat calms the market participants.

    But another point is much more important. If you believe the statement of the official representatives of Ukraine, the negotiation process seems to have moved from a dead point, and some kind of peace agreement will be reached in the near future. At least, the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, said that it could be achieved within a week. This means that the fighting may soon stop, and with it the flow of refugees to Western Europe will stop. And after all, it is the fighting that is the main reason for the rather large-scale weakening of the pound. The very prospect of their termination in the near future already contributes to its growth, which we have been observing since yesterday. If the situation does not change, and will move in this direction, then this growth will continue.

    The GBPUSD currency pair approached the level of 1.3000 with surgical precision, where the downward movement slowed down. The psychological level puts pressure on bears, but in this situation it is considered by traders only as a variable foothold on the path of a downward trend.

    The RSI technical instrument moves in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator in a four-hour period, which indicates a high interest of traders in short positions. RSI D1 is in the oversold zone, which is due to the intense downward movement and the important price level of 1.3000.

    Alligator H4 and D1 indicate a downward trend. There are no intersections between MA moving lines.

    Expectations and prospects:

    Despite the high desire of traders to continue to form a downtrend, the level of 1.3000 has a negative impact on the volume of short positions. This may lead to a slowdown in the downward cycle and, as a result, a price pullback.

    A complex indicator analysis gives a signal to buy in the short term due to a price rollback. Indicators in the intraday and medium-term periods signal a sale, due to a downward trend.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 16, 2022

    Details of the economic calendar of March 15:
    Data on the UK labor market were published, where the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 3.9%. At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 48,000 during the February period, which is good news. The reaction of the pound sterling was quite restrained, probably, the information and news noise influences the market.

    In the European Union, data on industrial production were published, the growth rate of which slowed down from 2.0% to -1.3%. The figures are bad and this is just the beginning as the data for February and March will definitely turn out to be even worse due to the current situation.

    During the American trading session, the producer price index in the United States was published, where the indicator remained at the level of 10%.

    March 16 economic calendar:
    The key event of the day and, possibly, of the week are the results of the Fed meeting, where forecasts for the first refinancing rate increase in four years have been going on for a long time. Based on expectations, an increase of 0.25% is considered, which, with earlier forecasts, is considered the minimum possible change. Note that back in January, they predicted a rate increase of 0.5% at once, but due to recent events, the forecasts were revised.

    Now the most important thing is not the rate, but the comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, since in the event of a change in strategy regarding the tightening of monetary policy, the U.S. dollar can significantly lose value. If the previously developed strategy of multiple rate hikes continues, the dollar will continue to strengthen.

    It is worth considering that the fact of raising the rate even by 0.25% can locally play on the transactions of speculators.

    Time targeting

    Results of the Fed meeting - 18:00 UTC

    Press conference - 18:30 UTC

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 16:
    In this situation, price stagnation plays the role of accumulation of trading forces, with a high degree of probability it will lead to new surges in the market. Traders consider the values of 1.0900 and 1.1020 as signal levels. Holding the price outside one of the levels will indicate an impulse move in the price.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on March 16:
    Despite the importance of the 1.3000 level, the downward trend prevails on the market. This can lead to a breakdown of the psychological level, where the current amplitude will become a lever for traders.

    As a trading recommendation, consider two market development scenarios:

    The first scenario is based on the breakdown of the level of 1.3000, where the confirmation of this signal will be the holding of the price below 1.2950 in a four-hour period.

    The second scenario considers a price pullback from a psychologically important level. Buy positions will be active after holding the price above the value of 1.3080 in a four-hour period. This step will only temporarily change the trajectory of the main trend.
     

  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    EU stocks maintain upward movement

    At the close of trading on Wednesday, the main EU stock indices advanced amid rising risk appetite. In addition, market participants were awaiting the results of the FOMC meeting. They also continued to monitor news on the Russia- Ukraine conflict.

    The STOXX Europe 600 Index grew by 3% to 448.45. The biggest gainers were Dutch conglomerate Prosus NV (+23.2%), Norwegian IT company Adevinta ASA (+15.8%), and Russian mining giant Polymetal International PLC (+14%).

    The FTSE 100 Index jumped by 1.62% to 7291.68, while the CAC 40 index added 3.68%, hitting 6588.64. The DAX rose by 3.76%, approaching a 2-week high of 14440.74.

    The shares of E.ON, the largest German energy supplier, climbed by 3.8%. The day before, the company reported an increase in adjusted net profit by 53% in annual terms following the results of last year. The earnings result significantly exceeded market expectations.

    E.ON also points out that it expects a decrease in adjusted profit in 2022. The company is unable to assess the negative consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict for its operation yet.

    The capitalization of EQT AB, the Swedish investment company, soared by 13% after it announced the acquisition of rival private-equity firm Baring Private Equity Asia for $ 7.5 billion.

    On Wednesday, risk sentiment significantly increased in global markets. The stock indices of the Asia-Pacific region closed in the black. The Hang Seng index surged by 9% amid information that the Chinese authorities will adopt new rules for supervising the listing of companies on foreign exchanges. Meanwhile, the US stock markets also reported stable growth of 1-2%.

    On Thursday, investors are anticipating the publication of the results of the FOMC meeting. According to preliminary estimates, the US regulator will raise the key rate to 0.25-0.5% per annum. Such an increase will be the first since the fall of 2018.

    In addition, the Bank of England's meeting is scheduled for Thursday. Analysts assume that the central bank will announce a rate hike to 0.75% from 0.5% per annum.

    As widely expected, the ECB kept the interest rate at zero and the deposit rate at minus 0.5% at the meeting last week.

    At the same time, the regulator adjusted the volume of asset purchases. Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June.

    Apart from that, the watchdog downgraded the forecast for Eurozone GDP growth from 4.2% to 3.2% in 2022.

    Analysts reckon that traders were disappointed by the lack of reaction from the ECB to the war in eastern Europe. Following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Western states have permanently imposed sanctions against Russia. Last week, President Joe Biden banned the import of petroleum products from Russia. Large global corporations have partially or completely suspended their activities in Russia despite the prospects of s drop in their own profits.

    Geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe remain in the limelight this week. The day before, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that there was hope for a compromise in negotiations with Ukraine. At the same time, Western media publish quotes from speeches of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, e.g. that talks with Russia were sounding 'more realistic'.
     
  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    European stocks rose on Friday for the third trading session in a row

    Investors continued to evaluate the results of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve System and the Bank of England, according to Trading Economics.

    The composite index of the largest companies in Europe Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.9% during the day and amounted to 454.62 points. Since last Friday, it has risen by more than 5%, the highest gain since November 2020. At the same time, the indicator ended "in positive territory" for the second week in a row.

    The German DAX index on Friday rose by 0.2%, the British FTSE 100 - by 0.3% (having reached a maximum in two weeks), the French CAC 40 and the Spanish IBEX 35 - by 0.1%, the Italian FTSE MIB - by 0. 4%.

    Over the past week, the CAC 40 is up 5.8%, the FTSE 100 is up 3.4% (the biggest gain since November 2020), and the DAX is up about 5%.

    The leading gainer among Stoxx 600 components on Friday was HelloFresh SE, a food kit delivery company, up 9.7%. Quotes of securities of other representatives of this sector also rose significantly: Ocado Group Plc - by 7.6% and Delivery Hero SE - by 7.3%.

    Shares of the German developer of software for remote access to computers TeamViewer rose in price by 6.6%, another IT company Softcat Plc - by 6%.

    Meanwhile, Polymetal International, Russia's largest silver producer and one of the leading gold miners, plunged 13.6%. This is the worst result among the Stoxx 600 companies.

    In addition, shares of reinsurance firm Hannover Rueck SE (-4.5%), media company ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (-4.2%), developers Entra ASA (-3.7%) and Vonovia SE (-3 .3%).

    On the British market, shares of mining companies rose in price, including Anglo American (+0.8%) and BHP (+0.4%).

    Ted Baker Plc jumped more than 17% after investment firm Sycamore Partners Management LP confirmed it was considering an offer to buy the clothing retailer.

    Papers BATM Advanced Communications Ltd. rose by 1.4%. A telecommunications technology and systems provider for medical laboratories has entered into a strategic partnership with Taiwan's NEXCOM International Co.

    Capitalization of Electricite de France SA increased by 1.7% - up to 9.47 euros. The French energy company plans to raise 3.1 billion euros through an additional issue. EDF will place 500 million new shares on the stock exchange at a price of 6.35 euros per share. The company will give its shareholders a priority right to purchase.
     
  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 22, 2022

    March 22 economic calendar:
    Tuesday is not much different from Monday, the macroeconomic calendar is still empty. Traders will continue to analyze the information flow for hot topics.

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 22:
    Stable retention of the price below the level of 1.1000 may well lead to a subsequent recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent correction. In case of a coincidence of expectations, the euro rate may fall to the values of 1.0900-1.0800.

    An alternative scenario for the development of the market will be considered by traders if the quote returns above 1.1050. This step may well disrupt the recovery process.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on March 22:
    In this situation, traders are still considering the trading tactics of breaking one or another control value relative to the price stagnation. In this regard, buy positions will be valid after holding the price above 1.3210 in a four-hour period, and sell positions would be active after holding the price below 1.3080 in a four-hour period.

    ETH surpasses BTC in terms of growth rate

    Ethereum soared above $3,000 on Tuesday. The coin has advanced by 3% over the last 24 hours and has added 16% over the past week. At the moment of writing, the altcoin traded at $3,009.76.

    On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency updated the February high, and its market capitalization hit $361 billion.

    The surge came after BTC, the world's largest digital asset, reached $43,300 and broke through the high as of March 3. As a reminder, bitcoin has traded sideways in the range between $37,000 and $42,000 for about a month.

    However, after approaching the high on Tuesday, BTC started to gradually decrease. At the moment of writing, digital gold traded at $42,500. The asset has increased by 3% over the past 24 hours and has grown by 7.1% over the past seven days.

    The spike in the value of ETH came amid expectations of the updates that could change the mining process of the altcoin.

    Today, pressure mainly came from buyers in Europe and the United States, analysts at Glassnode said. Meanwhile, market players in the Asian region were more willing to sell the asset.

    Other popular tokens showed steady growth, following a rise in BTC and ETH. Thus, Dogecoin grew 4.1% to $0.124. Uniswap and Cardano appreciated by about 5%.

    The total capitalization of the crypto market came in at $2,02 trillion, according to CoinGecko, the world's largest cryptocurrency data aggregator.
     
  11. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 24/03/2022

    The single European currency is losing its position again. Although the scale of yesterday's decline turned out to be quite modest. But today this process has continued. And it is sustainable. The reason lies solely in the plane of energy carriers.

    First, US President Joe Biden once again stated that during his visit to Europe he would seek from the EU the imposition of an embargo on oil and gas supplies from Russia. But Europe is extremely dependent on Russian energy supplies, and it is not at all clear what to replace them with. The United States itself can export only insignificant volumes, which will not be enough to replace Russian supplies. And this is not counting the fact that fuel prices in the United States, if lower than in Europe, then quite a bit. Whereas in Russia they are five or even six times lower. So if the United States manages to bend Europe, it will inevitably face both a real shortage of energy resources and an even greater increase in fuel prices. This is akin to the destruction of the European economy as such.

    Secondly, Russia decided yesterday to sell gas for rubles. The truth is only for unfriendly countries, to which the whole of Western Europe belongs. Of course, this caused a shock, since for the entire post-war history, the prices of raw materials in the world were denominated exclusively in dollars. Roughly speaking, there was a unified pricing and settlement system. This is extremely convenient, and allows you to bring prices to a certain uniform standard, which reduces the cost. If prices are formed in different currencies, it will lead to chaos. The world is used to a single pricing system. And inevitably, this will lead to an increase in raw material prices. However, there is really no talk of any paradigm shift. It's all about the reservation regarding unfriendly countries. It contains an opportunity to bypass this solution. It's just that the buyers will not be the countries of the European Union, but some others. For example, from North Africa or the Middle East. But the gas itself will still be supplied to Europe. Only at slightly higher prices.

    So as a result, the cost of energy carriers for Europe will still grow, which will have an extremely negative impact on the European economy. So it is not surprising that the European currencies are losing ground. And oddly enough, Russia's decision allows the European Union to even go for an embargo, since it will still buy gas through intermediaries, and not directly. But Europe will still have to pay dearly. That is the main factor in the weakening of the single European currency.

    The EURUSD currency pair completed the consolidation move in the range of 1.1010/1.1045 by breaking the lower border. This move led to speculative activity, which enabled traders to stay below the psychological 1.1000 level.

    The RSI technical instrument in the four-hour period confirmed the completion of the consolidation by the rebound of the indicator from the 50 line.

    The Alligator H4 indicator has left the phase of intertwining MA moving lines, indicating a downward trend. Alligator D1 still indicates a downward trend in the medium term. There are no intersections between the moving MA lines.

    Expectations and prospects:

    In this situation, the primary signal to sell the euro was received in the course of holding the price below the level of 1.1000. Strengthening of the existing signal will occur when the price stays below 1.0960 in a four-hour period. This move may well restart dollar positions in the direction of 1.0900-1.0800. Otherwise, we are in for a turbulence within the boundaries of 1.0960/1.1150.

    A complex indicator analysis gives a sell signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the price rebound from the resistance level. Indicators in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.
     
  12. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Pound sterling fluctuates as BoE revises plans due to inflation

    The pound sterling has made slight gains over the week. However, GBP remains in a downtrend. Growing inflationary and geopolitical risks are putting pressure on the British currency, forcing the Bank of England to change its earlier plans.

    Inflation in the UK has reached the highest point in 30 years, cancelling the plans of the British government. In February, consumer prices added 6.2%, and producer price inflation reached 10.1%. The government planned to impose the highest taxes in years next month to help economic recovery and prevent inflation from spiraling out of control.

    Originally, the national insurance rate was to be increased by 1.25%, which would contribute £12 billion to state coffers. However, this plan was suspended due to difficult economic situation, UK finance minister Rishi Sunak announced on Wednesday, March 23.

    Furthermore, the government reduced payroll taxes, cut the basic rate of income tax, and decreased the fuel duty. These measures are aimed at helping poorer families cope with rising prices. However, these plans are unlikely to affect the actual economic situation. According to projections by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), the cost of living for the poorest could rise by 10%, while their benefits will increase by just 3.1%. The Bank of England estimates that inflation could rise to 8% in April. However, its actual level exceeds these projections.

    This situation is detrimental to the pound sterling in the long term. GBP is currently struggling to hold its current fragile position. Amid a protracted price increase, the British pound decreased on Thursday, March 24. GBP is fluctuating up and down, which are unbalancing the pound sterling's price dynamics. GBP/USD was moving within the 1.3214-1.3215 range early on Friday, trying to escape the downward spiral.

    Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend staying short on GBP, as markets price in too much tightening from the Bank of England this year - up to 5 interest rate increases in 2022.

    Many economists are cautious with their outlooks, because the UK economy is in a difficult situation, and its currency is far from stable.

    The Bank of England is conducting its current monetary policy in accordance with the challenges at hand, adjusting it depending on the current situation. The UK central bank has increased the key rate 3 times over the past 4 months. The hikes helped GBP advance against EUR, but weakened GBP/USD. Experts do not rule out another increase at the next BoE meeting on April 14.

    The economic slowdown in the UK and geopolitical uncertainty demands caution in making key decisions from the Bank of England. As real disposable income falls and energy prices soar, the UK economy is expected to weaken.

    Earlier outlooks suggested inflationary pressure would peak in April, with prices reaching 8%. However, stronger negative tendencies in the economy could send prices skyward throughout the year, experts predict. The Bank of England suggests further monetary tightening is appropriate amid skyrocketing real inflation in the UK.
     
  13. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Will the dollar lead the new monetary system?

    The U.S. currency started the new week with cautious movements, with an eye on the current geopolitical situation. Tensions in the air have gripped the global financial arena. Some analysts believe that the way out of this situation is the formation of a new monetary system.

    In the event of such a scenario, the dollar will be among the minor currencies. The place of the USD in the new financial order does not provide for the unconditional leadership of the latter. A similar long-term forecast for the EUR/USD pair was published by Zoltan Pozsar, an analyst at Credit Suisse. Based on a number of factors, he stated changes in the global monetary order.

    In his report "Bretton Woods III", Pozsar sets out his point of view on the formation of a new system of settlements and currency relations: "We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West."

    The expert emphasized that at the moment "a crisis of commodities is unfolding... and this crisis is about the rising allure of outside money over inside money." According to Pozsar, the basis of the Bretton Woods II system was internal means of payment. However, this bulk, which was considered unshakable, "crumbled a week ago when the G7 seized Russia's FX reserves," Pozsar said.

    Recall that the former global financial system, Bretton Woods, provided for the dominance of the U.S. currency. It reached its greatest prosperity from 1944 to 1976, when the dollar took the leading place in the system of international settlements and storage of global reserves. However, now the USD is losing its dominant position, experts believe.

    The world is preparing to update the existing monetary order, being on the threshold of the end of the "Eurodollar era." The era of regional currencies in the East begins, which are backed by goods. Such a scenario will lead Western countries to another round of inflation, experts say.

    Many experts do not agree with this point of view and still believe in the stability of the greenback. According to analysts, the end of the "dollar hegemony era" is unlikely in the next few years. To prove this, arguments are given about the predominant number of currency transactions that are made in dollars. At the same time, the lion's share of global bank reserves is in the U.S. currency. Refusal of the greenback is possible only in the event of a large-scale global crisis comparable to the Second World War. Recall that after its completion, the USD acquired the status of a world currency.

    The replacement of the dollar by the yuan, which has been much talked about lately, is hardly possible in the foreseeable future. According to experts, the Chinese currency does not have such a strong base and global recognition as the U.S. dollar. Such a level of confidence in the yuan, as in the USD, has not yet been formed. At the same time, China is a cunning and cautious market player, analysts are sure. The Chinese government is able to deal harshly with their trading partners and is very reluctant to go beyond their interests, which are mainly related to the Asia-Pacific region.

    The disadvantage of the Chinese currency is its small number in the global financial system. Currently, the share of the greenback in international trade settlements is approaching 50%, and in reserves, it reaches 60%. At the same time, the share of the yuan does not exceed 5%, analysts emphasize.

    Currently, the U.S. currency is trying not to miss a single opportunity for growth. According to COT reports, over the past week, major market players have significantly increased their positions to buy contracts for the dollar index (USDX). As a result, the net position on it rose from the lows recorded since September 2021.

    The current data on the dollar index (USDX) fixes the growth of "bullish" sentiment on the U.S. currency. On Monday, March 28, the dollar index (the rate against a basket of currencies of six countries - key U.S. trading partners) rose by 0.37% to 989.15 points. This week, economists expect an increase in U.S. GDP by 7% and a reduction in unemployment in the country to 3.7%. Optimism about the U.S. currency is also promoted by the build-up of traders' positions on the rise of the latter.
     
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  14. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.27%

    At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.27% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 index rose 0.71%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 1.31%.

    Shares of Microsoft Corporation were the leaders of the gains among the components of the Dow Jones index in today's trading, which gained 7.02 points (2.31%) to close at 310.70. Salesforce.com Inc rose 4.25 points or 2.01% to close at 215.28. Walmart Inc rose 2.55 points or 1.78% to close at 146.00.

    The losers were shares of Chevron Corp, which lost 2.96 points or 1.75% to end the session at 166.35. Dow Inc was up 0.59 points (0.91%) to close at 64.11, while JPMorgan Chase & Co was down 1.05 points (0.74%) to close at 140. .87.

    Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Tesla Inc, which rose 8.03% to hit 1.00, Carnival Corporation, which gained 5.49% to close at 19.40, and Etsy Inc, which rose 4.70% to end the session at 138.54.

    The biggest losers were Discovery Inc Class A, which shed 6.47% to close at 25.58. Shares of Discovery Communications C Inc shed 6.15% to end the session at 25.63. Quotes of Mosaic Co decreased in price by 4.72% to 67.97.

    Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 81.25% to hit 2.32, DatChat Inc, which gained 61.45% to close at 2.68, and also shares of Newegg Commerce Inc, which rose 43.41% to end the session at 7.40.

    The biggest losers were Clever Leaves Holdings Inc, which shed 50.26% to close at 1.91. Neuroone Medical Technologies Corp lost 46.85% to end the session at 1.18. Quotes of Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 35.96% to 16.01.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1,715) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,490), and quotes of 134 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,051 stocks fell, 1,843 rose, and 199 remained at the previous close.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 5.67% to 19.63, hitting a new monthly low.

    Gold futures for April delivery lost 1.64%, or 32.10, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for May delivery fell 9.18%, or 10.46, to $103.44 a barrel. Brent futures for June delivery fell 9.01%, or 10.58, to $106.79 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.07% to 1.10, while USD/JPY rose 1.45% to hit 123.83.

    Futures on the USD index rose by 0.27% to 99.08.
     

  15. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 30, 2022

    March 30 economic calendar
    Today, the ADP report on employment in the United States is expected to be published, which is projected to grow by 450,000 in March. This is a positive signal for the labor market if the data is confirmed.

    Almost simultaneously with the ADP report, the final data on the United States GDP for 2021 will be published. The data will likely be left without much attention, which will confirm the preliminary assessment.

    Time targeting

    ADP report - 12:15 Universal time

    U.S. GDP - 12:30 Universal time

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 30
    In this situation, the local maximum at 1.1137 plays the role of resistance, which temporarily put pressure on buyers in the form of a technical pullback. In order for the upward cycle to be extended to new price levels, the quote needs to stay above 1.1180 in a four-hour period. This step will lead to further formation of a corrective move from the pivot point 1.0800. At the same time, the regular basis of the past, associated with the 1.1120/1.1180 area, may well put pressure on long positions. In this case, a slowdown in the upward cycle is possible, followed by a weakening of the euro, following the example of a price rebound on March 17th.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on March 30
    In this situation, a characteristic uncertainty could arise due to the convergence of the price with the psychologically important level of 1.3000, where there was a reduction in the volume of short positions in history. The risk of a price rebound from the pivot point in the market remains, so the prolongation of the downward cycle will be considered by traders only after holding the quote below 1.3000 in a four-hour period. Until then, a variable or a local pullback is possible.
     
  16. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    US stocks extend losses after confident rise early this week

    On Thursday, the main European stock indices continue to drop. However, at the beginning of the trading session, they climbed higher but later resumed the downward movement. Market participants are deeply concerned about the prospects of a slowdown in the global economy. The weakening of inflation fears amid a drawdown in oil prices limits the upward movement in European stock exchanges.

    At the time of writing this article, the STOXX Europe 600 lost 0.12%, dropping to 459.63.

    The shares of Swedish IT company Sinch AB (-10.7%), Polish logistics company InPost SA (-4%), as well as Telecom Italia SpA (-3.2%) incurred the biggest losses.

    The largest gainers were the stocks of Russian gold mining company - Polymetal International (+8.1%) and Orpea SA (+4.8%).

    On Thursday, the DAX index is down by 0.04%. The FTSE MIB shed 0.2%, the IBEX 35 decreased by 0.15%, the FTSE 100 slid down by 0.04%, and the CAC 40 dropped by 0.16%.

    Despite a constant decrease in recent days, the leading European indices will end March on a positive note. The Stoxx 600 grew by 4%, while the DAX rose by 5%.

    H&M shares nosedived by 8.5%. Despite the company's upbeat earnings report in the first quarter of the current financial year, the net profit was lower than analysts' forecasts.

    The capitalization of UK investment company Brewin Dolphin Holdings instantly soared by more than 60% on the news that the Royal Bank of Canada agreed to buy it for $ 2.1 billion.

    During Wednesday's trading session, the major EU indices closed in the red after a spectacular rise a day earlier. The day before, market participants assessed the prospects of a recovery in the global economy amid the geopolitical woes in Eastern Europe.

    As a result, the STOXX Europe 600 index sank by 0.41% to 460.19.

    The shares of UK advertising company S4 Capital Plc logged the steepest drop among the companies included in the index. Its stock collapsed by 36%. S4 Capital Plc announced another delay in the publication of the earnings report due to problems with the PricewaterhouseCoopers audit.

    The CAC 40 index lost 0.74% on Wednesday, the DAX shed 1.45%, the FTSE MIB decreased by 0.03%, and the IBEX 35 slid down by 0.74%. Only the FTSE 100 index grew by 0.55%.

    Yesterday, the stocks of companies doing business in Russia also incurred losses. French conglomerates Societe Generale and BNP Paribas sank by 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively. Renault shares fell by 4%.

    The shares of Swiss financial holding UBS Group AG dropped by 1.5%. Even the announcement of the launch of a new share-buyback program of up to $6 billion the day before did not boost the company's shares. The program is scheduled to begin today. It will stay in effect for two years,

    The main reason for a sharp decline in the DAX index was the outlook for Germany's economy. Earlier, analysts lowered its GDP outlook for the current year amid the escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Thus, the growth of gross domestic product may total only 1.8%. In November 2021, economists predicted an increase in GDP by 4.6% in 2022.

    As for macroeconomic figures for Germany, in March, the inflation rate soared to 7.3% in annual terms from 5.1% in February. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the indicator hit an all-time high.

    Inflation in Spain surged to 9.8% in March from 7.6% in February, notching the highest level since 1985. At the same time, experts predicted an increase of only 8%.

    According to preliminary data, in March, the consumer confidence index in Sweden plunged to 73.5 from February 89, reaching a 30-year low.

    Another bearish factor for the DAX index was a dazzling rise in oil prices on Wednesday. Crude oil increased by 3%, while gas prices in Europe jumped by 9%.

    The FTSE 100 was up amid a rally in the commodity market. As a result, the oil and gas industries in the eurozone expanded by 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively. The capitalization of French energy giant TotalEnergies, UK Petroleum, and Glencore rose by 2.5%, 3.1%, and 4.2%, respectively.

    Geopolitical tensions, which began more than a month ago, have adversely affected stock markets worldwide. In addition, analysts are confident that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will slow down the expansion of the global economy as well as trigger a surge in inflation and shortages of raw materials in some countries.
     
  17. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 04/04/2022

    Given the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, it is only surprising that the pound's decline on Friday was more of a symbolic nature. And so, 460,000 new jobs were not created outside of agriculture, but 431,000. But even this is still almost twice as much as is necessary to maintain a stable unemployment rate. Which by the way decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%, with a forecast of 3.7%. And it looks like it will continue to decline. There are practically no doubts about this. And apparently, the pound was supported by the single European currency, the decline of which also turned out to be rather modest. However, this appears to be just a temporary phenomenon. Macroeconomic data is clearly in favor of the US dollar. Europe, on the other hand, cannot boast of such figures. As it is much worse. And the dynamics is rather exclusively negative. Whereas in the United States, macroeconomic statistics are more often encouraging than disappointing. So there is no doubt that the pound will gradually lose its positions against the US dollar.

    Unemployment rate (United States):

    The GBPUSD currency pair continues to move in the 1.3105/1.3180 range, despite the bears' attempts to overcome its lower limit. Long-term price movement in a closed range leads to the process of accumulation of trading forces, which can lead to acceleration in the market.

    The RSI technical instrument is moving along the middle line 50 in a four-hour period, which indicates a stagnation. RSI D1 is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, signaling the high interest of traders in a downward move.

    The Alligator H4 indicator has a lot of crossovers between the moving MA lines, which confirms the signal of stagnation. Alligator D1 signals a downward trend, MA moving lines are directed downwards.

    Expectations and prospects:

    In this situation, traders are still considering the trading tactics of breaking through one or another flat border. In this regard, long positions will be valid after keeping the price above 1.3185 in a four-hour period, and short positions would be valid after keeping the price below 1.3100 in a four-hour period.

    Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to stagnation. Indicators in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.
     
  18. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 5, 2022

    The pound has been marking time for a whole week, although there is no talk of any lull in the foreign exchange market. The single European currency, for example, has been steadily going down for several days now. At the same time, the UK cannot boast of any remarkable macroeconomic data, so the behavior of the British currency is no longer surprising, but fearful.

    The market cannot stand still for so long, and even for no apparent reason. This only speaks of an excessive speculative component, which will inevitably make itself felt. It is most logical to assume that the British pound will move downwards, following the euro. But due to the excessive speculative component, upward movement is also possible. And this scenario seems to be the most realistic. That is, first a sharp jump up, and then a rapid reversal and a rapid upward movement.

    But all this needs a reason. Given that the macroeconomic calendar is empty, and in general the pound ignores statistics, everything will depend on the general information background. Therefore, it is worth keeping a close eye on the news feed of the largest media outlets. Any news that in one way or another will affect the UK and its economy can become the very trigger that starts this whole process.

    But the euro seems to have finally realized that there is a serious gap between the United States and the European Union in terms of macroeconomic statistics. And not much in favor of the euro area. In general, the single European currency steadily went down during the American session. This shows that European traders still deny the reality, while American traders look at things a little more rationally.

    The euro continues to be under serious pressure, and it is not yet clear when it will be able to break out of this state. More specifically, what can help it. Macroeconomic indicators are increasingly suggesting that Europe is bearing the greatest losses due to the sanctions confrontation between the West and Russia.

    The EURUSD currency pair has reached a variable pivot in the form of the 1.0940/1.0965 area during an intensive downward movement. This led to a slight slowdown with signs of a possible pullback. The subsequent increase in the volume of short positions is expected after holding the price below the value of 1.0940 in a four-hour period. Until then, the risk of a rebound remains.

    The GBPUSD currency pair has been moving in the 1.3100/1.3180 side channel for almost a week now. This indicates uncertainty and possible speculative activity in the future. Trading tactics consider the method of breaking through one or another border with confirmation in a four-hour period.
     
  19. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 06/04/2022

    The pound stayed for a long time, and has demonstrated incredible stability. But yesterday everything changed, and it finally followed the single European currency. That is, to the downside. At the same time, it completely repeated the typical scenario for the last few days for the euro. The British currency stood still during the European session, and after the opening of the US one, it went down. But yesterday, both major European currencies had enough reasons to fall. Although to be precise, there is only one reason. The notorious energy carriers. Just at the opening of the US trading session, publications appeared in the media on the topic that the new block of European sanctions against Russia would include restrictions on coal supplies. We are not talking about a complete ban on imports. It is planned to reduce the volume of deliveries by about 4 billion euros, which is about a third of all coal supplies from Russia to Europe. Naturally, an extremely simple question immediately arises - how does Europe plan to compensate for the falling volumes. Moreover, Europe is already facing an unprecedented increase in fuel prices and inflation. There is no doubt that this decision, if of course it is made, will cause Europe the most serious damage. Including an even greater increase in inflation. The sanctions themselves should be adopted today or tomorrow. And if this issue is delayed, the pressure on the pound will only increase. Uncertainty scares investors the most. But in any case, at least today, the pound will remain under pressure.

    The long-playing 1.3105/1.3180 horizontal channel for the GBPUSD pair was broken through on a downward trajectory. This led to speculation in the market, where the pound fell to the area of 1.3060. In fact, the bears tried to return the quote to the support level of 1.3000, playing a 100% corrective move.

    The RSI technical instrument moves in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator in a four-hour period, which signals a high interest of traders in short positions.

    The Alligator H4 indicator has a primary sell signal after a long intertwining between the moving MA lines. Alligator D1 is signaling a downward trend, MA moving lines are directed to the downside.

    Expectations and prospects:

    At the moment, the quote has slightly slowed down the downward movement, where the 1.3050/1.3060 area serves as a variable support. Keeping the price below these values is highly likely to lead to a further decline towards the support level of 1.3000. Until then, a rollback to the lower border of the passed flat is possible.

    Comprehensive indicator analysis gives a sell signal in the short, intraday and medium term due to the rapid downward movement.
     
  20. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Well-Known Member

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    Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 13, 2022

    Economic calendar for April 13
    Data on the UK inflation were published today, which saw an acceleration in consumer price growth from 6.2% to 7.0% with a forecast of 6.7%. Such high inflation is damaging the economy, which is a negative factor for the pound sterling.

    During the American trading session, the producer price index in the United States will be published, which is expected to grow from 10.0% to 10.6%. Rising prices will lead to further inflation, which is already at historical levels.

    All this is a negative factor for the US economy.

    Time targeting

    US producer price index - 12:30 UTC

    Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 13
    In this situation, holding the price below the level of 1.0800 in a four-hour period will indicate a continuation of the trend. This may lead to a subsequent movement towards the local minimum of 2020.

    An alternative scenario for the development of the market considers another slowdown in the downward move within 1.0800. This may lead to a temporary pullback, but not to a change in trading interests.

    Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 13
    The price stagnation within the deviation of the 1.3000 level will soon end. With a high degree of probability, it will become a lever for speculators in the upcoming acceleration in the market. It is worth considering that the signal of prolongation of the downward trend will be confirmed only after the price is kept below the value of 1.2950 in a four-hour period.

    As for the upward development of the price, traders consider this scenario as a local rebound of the price from the support level of 1.3000. The signal for action will come from the market at the moment the price is held above the value of 1.3055. In the future, this move may lead to the 1.3105 mark, after which a price reversal is not excluded.
     

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