Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

US stock market: bad news fully priced in

The S&P 500 had its worst quarter in three years. Investors are shifting capital from North America to Europe. Once-booming US tech stocks have collapsed. Major banks and respected institutions are raising the odds of a recession for the American economy. That's a lot of bad news for a broad stock index, isn't it? However, buying the dip towards the lower boundary of the sideways range at 5,500–5,790 has borne fruit — just in time for America's "Liberation Day".

Performance of US stock indices

Donald Trump's policies have caused turmoil not only in financial markets but also among the general public. According to the latest Associated Press poll, nearly 60% of Americans disapprove of the president's protectionist stance, and 58% are dissatisfied with his overall handling of the US economy. The market sell-off reflects investor skepticism, but the Republican leader remains undeterred. He insists the country must endure short-term pain to reclaim a golden era for America.

That "Liberation Day" will come on April 2, when the White House is set to announce new tariffs. According to Wall Street Journal sources, the president is weighing two options: blanket 20% import tariffs or tailored, reciprocal tariffs. The former could send another shock through financial markets, while the latter might calm nerves.

Following JP Morgan and Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Yet investors have found new reasons for optimism. After a massive sell-off in tech stocks, forward P/E ratios are now approaching historical averages. In other words, stocks are no longer overvalued, making them more attractive.

US tech sector P/E trends

The White House's new tariffs could also slow capital outflows from North America to Europe. A full-blown trade war would likely hit the EU harder due to its large trade surplus with the United States. Moreover, part of the capital shift was driven by a 4.6% gain in the euro against the dollar in the first quarter. As a result, European investors lost about 13% on US-listed assets.

According to Wells Fargo, the dollar's January-March slide was temporary. Looking ahead, tariffs and trade tensions could boost the greenback by 1.5% to 11%, with maximum gains expected if America's trade partners avoid a full-scale retaliatory response.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has bounced off the lower boundary of the previously established 5,500-5,790 consolidation range. Long positions opened at the 5,500 level appear to be worth holding. A break above the resistance levels at 5,625 (pivot) and 5,670 (fair value) would allow for additional long positions.

 

$10 Billion: The Price of Mistakes? J&J Back in Legal Storm

Wall Street Reels, But S&P 500 and Nasdaq Survive
U.S. stocks ended Tuesday with gains in the key S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, despite palpable nervousness gripping investors ahead of Donald Trump's announcement of new trade tariffs.

Investors on edge: markets in turmoil
The financial markets have been experiencing high volatility in recent weeks. The reason is fears that the US President's large-scale tariff initiatives could slow down the country's economic growth and spur inflation. While waiting for specifics from the White House, investors are maneuvering between caution and hope.

Markets are waiting for signals from the Rose Garden
All eyes are on Trump's speech tomorrow, scheduled for 4:00 PM ET in the White House Rose Garden. He is expected to announce the details of his tariff policy, and this may clarify at least part of the situation shrouded in guesswork and rumors.

However, even if clarity appears in terms of measures, investors will still face general uncertainty - both regarding the consequences of these steps and the possible reaction of US partners in the trade arena. All this makes the direction of further market movement vague and difficult to predict.

Swings of the day: from minus to confident point
Amid this tense uncertainty, all three major US indexes showed fluctuations throughout the trading session, jumping between growth and decline. Only in the second half of the day did positive dynamics prevail.

The bottom line for the day is as follows: the broad market S&P 500 index added 21.22 points, or 0.38%, to close at 5,633.07. The high-tech Nasdaq Composite strengthened by 150.60 points, which is an increase of 0.87%, ending the day at 17,449.89. But the Dow Jones industrial average slightly fell - by 11.80 points, or 0.03%, to 41,989.96.

Technology Takes Revenge: Nasdaq Back on Top
On Tuesday, it was the technology sector that became the engine of growth on Wall Street. After a difficult start to the year, the previously damaged IT giants began to confidently regain their positions, pulling the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices up with them.

Tesla Accelerates Ahead of the Report
Tesla stood out, its shares jumped by 3.6% amid expectations of fresh statistics on car deliveries for the first quarter, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors are betting on positive figures and waiting for a signal of demand recovery.

Other representatives of the so-called "magnificent seven" - Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) - also showed confident growth, adding from 1% to 1.8%. This strengthened the position of Nasdaq and breathed technological optimism into the market.

Doctors and airlines drag the market down
But not everything was so rosy on the markets. The S&P 500 was under pressure from the healthcare and transportation sectors, which ended up in the red amid corporate and legal setbacks.

Johnson & Johnson was the real outsider of the day. The pharmaceutical giant's shares fell by 7.6%, showing the worst result among all the companies in the index. The reason was a blow in court: an American bankruptcy judge rejected J&J's offer to settle claims for $10 billion. We are talking about a long-standing dispute over talc-based products, which tens of thousands of plaintiffs associate with cancer.

The airline market is on the decline: anxiety over demand
Airlines also showed weakness. Shares of Delta, American Airlines and Southwest fell in the range of 2.4% to 5.9%. This was the result of analysts at Jefferies revising investment ratings downwards. Financial experts have expressed concern that macroeconomic uncertainty and fluctuations in consumer sentiment could negatively impact demand for both business and leisure travel.

IPO Newbies Are Rocking the Market: Newsmax and CoreWeave Are Riding High
Amid the general market turbulence, some newcomers to the exchange have become the real stars of the trading session. Among them is media player Newsmax, whose shares have demonstrated a dizzying rise for the second day in a row.

After a stunning start on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, when the company's shares rose by more than 700%, they jumped another 208% on Tuesday. Given Newsmax's politically charged and Trump-friendly image, investor interest was literally explosive.

CoreWeave Startup Rising After a Shaky Debut
Another participant in the recent IPO, AI company CoreWeave, has also pleased investors. Despite an uncertain first step after going public on Friday, its shares added an impressive 41.8% on Tuesday, exceeding the announced offering price. This signals strong demand for AI stocks despite market risks.

Gold finds support, Asia wavers
While some investors are chasing the hype of new releases, others are turning their attention to more conservative assets. Gold prices have begun to show signs of recovery — the metal is traditionally seen as a "safe haven" amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Asian markets, meanwhile, remained in a range of moderate volatility. Despite a shaky start, they managed to avoid sharp declines, following a more confident finish to trading on Wall Street. European futures are so far signaling a calm but cautious start.

Tariff time bomb
Investors are still keeping in mind the "hour X" — Donald Trump's planned statement on Wednesday, which he has dubbed "Liberation Day." In essence, we are talking about a large-scale initiative to introduce new import duties - both against strategic opponents and traditional US allies.

The announcement ceremony is scheduled for 20:00 GMT and will take place in a landmark location - the Rose Garden near the White House. And although market participants are waiting for specifics, no real relief from uncertainty is expected yet.

Quick measures, tough responses
Perhaps the most alarming detail is the lack of a negotiating phase. According to available data, tariff measures will be introduced immediately, which sharply reduces the room for diplomatic maneuvers and, on the contrary, increases the likelihood of a quick response from the affected countries.

This creates the basis for increased volatility in the markets in the coming days - from exchange rates to stock indices. Analysts do not rule out sharp jumps and new nervous sell-offs.

Tariff barrage: metal, cars and China under attack
The White House has already taken the first steps in implementing a tough trade strategy. Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on key import categories, from aluminum and steel to automobiles. He has also significantly increased tariffs on a whole range of Chinese products. These actions have resonated in global markets, increasing fears of a trade confrontation that could paralyze global economic growth.

Economists are sounding the alarm: the threat of a full-scale trade war is becoming increasingly real. Tensions between Washington and its main trading partners, including Beijing, threaten to go beyond diplomacy and enter the phase of a systemic conflict that could hit global supply chains and slow down the recovery of the world economy.

Gold shines amid anxiety
Amid growing risks, investors have flocked to safe haven assets, and, above all, to gold. The "yellow metal" is confidently storming new historical heights, having exceeded the psychological mark of $3,000 per ounce.

Gold has already gained 19% since the start of the year, continuing a strong upward trend after a remarkable 27% gain in 2024, the best year for the precious metal in a decade. The rise in prices reflects not only fears of geopolitical and economic shocks, but also growing demand from central banks and large institutional players seeking to preserve capital in an unstable environment.

Not gold, but a barometer of fear
With markets reeling from conflicting signals – from tariff threats to volatile inflation and unclear interest rate prospects – gold is once again becoming a universal indicator of anxiety. Its rise speaks not only of the demand for stability, but also of how deeply rooted the fears among investors are.

 

US Market News Digest for April 7

S&P 500 futures hover at critical support: rebound or breakout?
On April 7, futures on the S&P 500 index approached the key support level of 4,953. Holding above this zone could pave the way for a rebound targeting 5,100 and 5,274. However, if selling pressure intensifies, a drop to 4,612 cannot be ruled out. This setup creates potential for both aggressive short-term entries and defensive strategies in the event of a breakout.

The current technical outlook marks a critical decision point for traders, especially amid heightened volatility driven by geopolitical tensions.

Tariff shock: market loses capital
The Trump administration has escalated trade pressure, becoming the key trigger behind a sharp decline in US equity indices. A 20% plunge from February highs has already eroded investor confidence and stoked fears of a looming recession.

In moments like these, the ability to spot opportunities becomes paramount. Short-term corrections offer profit potential, especially in volatile assets and indices.

Trillions wiped out: what comes next for market?
In just two trading days, the S&P 500 index has lost more than $5.4 trillion in market capitalization. This shift is transforming investor behavior: passive strategies are being abandoned in favor of more active portfolio management. The focus is now on safe-haven assets, short-term speculation, and diversification.

Current market dynamics demand flexibility and swift decision-making. Right now, smart moves can create an edge amid widespread uncertainty.

One of the worst sell-offs in history
The US market is experiencing the fourth-biggest decline in its history. Washington's introduction of trade tariffs has triggered a chain reaction of capital flight, investor panic, and a sharp increase in economic risk. Money is moving into regions perceived as less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

Even in these conditions, trading opportunities remain. Rebounds, hedging, and index strategies via futures or CFDs offer ways to turn turbulence into tactical advantage.

As a reminder, InstaForex offers optimal conditions for trading stock indices, stocks, and bonds, allowing clients to profit from shifts in market sentiment.

 

Market gives away its secret

The world is a stage, and people are its actors. Tragicomedies happen every day in financial markets, but what happened at the start of the second week of April is mesmerizing. In just a few minutes, the capitalization of the US stock market surged by $2.4 trillion thanks to a false message on social media. Its denial by the White House caused the S&P 500 to plummet. What's the message? What did the rollercoaster ride on Wall Street reveal? The nerves of investors, stretched like strings? Or was it the time to buy American stocks?

If you want to make money, use your imagination. If you're thinking about how to make big money, come up with something that will make your hair stand on end.

Someone created a fake Bloomberg account on social media, posted news from the popular media agency for a long time, and gained millions of followers with one goal. On one spring day, they posted information that Hassett was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs against all countries except China. The news was so hot that it was immediately picked up by CNBC and Reuters. The S&P 500 surged, only to fall again.

The S&P 500's reaction to the White House's tariff pause news

No doubt, investors are unnerved. They are worried about what the White House's protectionist policies might do to the US economy. Tariffs on imports and trade wars threaten a global recession. When fear rules market sentiment, no one wants to buy stocks.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 fell by 20% from its February peak, entering the bear market. This was the second-fastest slump since 1945. The first occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing the Federal Reserve to throw a lifeline to the US economy with mind-boggling monetary stimuli.

The dynamics of the S&P 500's transitions into a bear market

In such conditions, investors are trying to puzzle out whether the worst has already happened and it is now time for negotiations and tariff rollbacks. Following this logic, is it the right time to buy stocks? If fear shifts to greed, the S&P 500 rally could be so fast that it will take your breath away. The fake news on social media is proof of that. What is needed is one good piece of news to enable the broad stock index to rise from the ashes.

I don't think the tough times are behind us. At least one trade war, between the US and China, has already started. According to UBS, a recession in the US economy could result in zero corporate profit growth, as every 1 percentage point drop in GDP subtracts 6.9 percentage points from this indicator.

Technically, on the Daily Chart of the S&P 500, a bounce from the support level at 4,905 suggests that the broad stock index may have found a bottom.

There is a high probability of consolidation in the range of 4,900 to 5,200 or 4,900-5,330. It makes sense to sell during a rise to its upper border and buy during a drop to the lower border. In the latter case, you need to think three times, as catching falling knives is extremely dangerous.
More analytics on our website: bit.ly/3VobLUv

 

"Golden" Forecasts: Gold at $3,500, $3,700 – Higher and Higher?

Gold forecasts are becoming increasingly dazzling in every sense, as analysts appear to be competing with one another over how high the precious metal could go. Rising geopolitical instability and President Donald Trump's current tariff policy fuel this. The yellow metal becomes a last reliable refuge for many investors in such an environment.

According to James Steel, currency strategist at HSBC, Washington's introduction of new tariffs against its trading partners triggered the sharp rise in the price of gold above $3,000 per ounce. "This is the first time in recent years when geopolitics and economic uncertainty have become the primary drivers of the gold market," the expert emphasizes.

Last week, spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,167.57 per troy ounce. As a result, the yellow metal is up 16% since the beginning of 2025. For reference, gold gained 27% in 2024. Monetary policy easing and concerns over fiscal deficits also contributed to increased investment in gold last year.

The current situation continues to favor gold. Against this backdrop, experts are forecasting unprecedented growth. Given that the precious metal has an inverse correlation with trade flows, gold stands to benefit either way. Trump's tariff stance — including the highest trade barriers enacted by Washington in a century — has also sent new investors rushing into gold, driven by fears of a full-blown trade war.

Gold has now surpassed the U.S. dollar in popularity among safe-haven assets, partly due to the prolonged weakening of the greenback. Additionally, many analysts have noted signs that the USD's status as the world's reserve currency is eroded by ongoing tariff uncertainty. In this environment, gold is outpacing the U.S. dollar. June gold futures on the Comex exchange rose 1.6% to $3,022 per ounce. On Wednesday, April 9, gold traded at $3,045 per troy ounce.

Global Uncertainty and Market Volatility Are Fertile Ground for Gold

Trump has significantly contributed to this environment by upending the global order just 2.5 months into his presidency, signaling that the U.S. will no longer guarantee European security, as it had since World War II. Moreover, the White House has radically shifted the U.S. stance on the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The eccentric billionaire has even seriously discussed the possibility of annexing Greenland.

Given the circumstances, currency strategists at Deutsche Bank have revised their gold price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upward, citing geopolitical and trade uncertainty as strong catalysts for demand for safe-haven assets. According to preliminary estimates, the average price of gold will be $3,140 per ounce in 2025 and $3,700 in 2026. The previous forecast was $2,725 and $2,900, respectively. By the end of 2025, Deutsche Bank analysts project that gold will be worth $3,350 per ounce. The bank's 2026 forecast is the most optimistic among major global financial institutions.

Another factor supporting gold is strong central bank demand. According to Deutsche Bank, central banks now account for around 24% of global gold demand — up from less than 10% in 2022.

Many analysts remain optimistic about the near-term prospects for gold. Last week, HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce. However, the bank is less bullish on 2026, expecting a decline to $2,915 per ounce.

Currency strategists at Bank of America (BofA) also aren't forecasting a meteoric rise. According to BofA analyst Michael Widmer, gold will average $3,063 per ounce in 2025 and $3,350 in 2026. However, he believes spot prices could reach $3,500 per ounce over the next two years.

"Purchasing gold at $3,000 an ounce is more appealing than buying it at $3,500. However, what is the risk involved? It's the possibility of returning to the conditions we faced two years ago—a more favorable global environment with no threat of trade wars and a Federal Reserve open to increasing interest rates. In that case, the economy stabilizes, financial market sentiment improves, and gold trading effectively dries up. But that's a fantasy scenario," Widmer concludes.

 

Bitcoin struggles to find support as tariff turmoil roils global markets

The flagship cryptocurrency remains in a fragmented state, unable to establish a firm footing. Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility and posted losses this week. Nevertheless, experts remain optimistic, anticipating a gradual recovery of the flagship digital asset.

On the evening of Wednesday, April 9, a major rally was recorded across both equity and commodity markets, reflecting investor reactions to US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of previously announced tariffs for 90 days.

At one point, every single stock within the broad-market S&P 500 index was in the green. The index rose 8.3%, with only 20 of its components closing in negative territory. Leading the gains were airline stocks (United Airlines, Delta Air Lines) and semiconductor companies (Microchip Technology, Advanced Micro Devices, and ON Semiconductor Corp).

According to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the White House could soon reach new tariff agreements with the majority of its allies. Talks have already been scheduled with over 70 countries expressing willingness to deepen cooperation with the United States.

Against this backdrop, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from the key 102-point support level, which it had been testing actively earlier this month. It recovered all of Tuesday's losses, climbing back to 103. Investors dumped US Treasuries, which they had previously purchased en masse to hedge against the risk of a global recession triggered by the tariff war. "The buy-the-dip reflex is extremely strong. The recent tech stock sell-off has made market quotes more attractive," crypto expert Chris Beauchamp noted.

An island called China

Later that week, Trump officially announced a 90-day pause on the mutual tariffs initially declared the previous week. The steepest tariffs were imposed on Vietnam (46%), Sri Lanka (44%), and Cambodia (49%). However, countries that did not impose retaliatory measures will now face a reduced tariff of just 10% for the 90 days. China, on the other hand, is a different story—the tariff on Chinese goods has been increased to a staggering 125%. The reason? Beijing's retaliatory move. On Wednesday, April 9, China's authorities raised tariffs on US imports from 34% to a critical 84%.

"We've reached a turning point in the trade war initiated by the US president. This gives countries willing to negotiate on tariff elimination some time to work out a deal," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. "Trump has left China on an economic island, completely isolated from the rest of the world," he added. A striking metaphor indeed!

Amid this, the combined market capitalization of the "Magnificent Seven", the largest US companies by market cap, surged by more than $1 trillion. With tech giants dominating this group, the Nasdaq index jumped more than 10%, outpacing the S&P 500. And it may not stop there.

Crypto reacts sharply to global instability

Meanwhile, the global crypto market responded with a sell-off across most assets. On Monday, April 7, Bitcoin plunged to $74,500, triggering shockwaves across global financial markets. The situation has since stabilized, but a full recovery is still a long way off.

The bearish market structure deepened when BTC revisited its recent low of $78,600 early in the week. The price now appears to be drifting in a vacuum—neither rebounding nor bottoming out, leaving its direction unclear. Analysts doubt whether the bulls can hold current levels.

From a technical outlook, there's a shimmer of hope for a short-term bullish push. The range of $75,100 to $80,000 offers a potential rebound zone. However, this upside momentum is not considered strong enough to reverse the broader downtrend.

Bitcoin sinks below $80,000: consolidation or another dip?

On April 9, Bitcoin surged above $84,000, gaining more than 8% within a few hours following Trump's unexpected announcement of a global tariff pause. This rally supported a recent forecast by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who suggested that growing economic uncertainty might present an attractive entry point for long-term crypto investors.

Despite this bullish move, Bitcoin faced stiff resistance at $88,800—a high from April 2 when the initial tariff news broke. The top of the Keltner Channel now sits near $88,130, making it a critical resistance zone.

Analysts note that traders who entered during BTC's correction may start taking profits near breakeven levels, forming a potential "wall of selling." If Bitcoin fails to overcome this resistance, the path to the psychological $100,000 level could remain blocked.

The lower border of the Keltner Channel—currently at $73,500—acts as strong support and aligns with a liquidity zone formed during recent consolidation. A drop below $80,000, especially with growing selling pressure, could accelerate the downward move.

Trump's tariff pivot sparks BTC breakout to $84,000

On April 10, Bitcoin gained 12% after Trump dramatically revised his aggressive trade policies, replacing sweeping tariffs with a flat 10% duty, except for China. The policy shift eased investor fears about a full-blown global trade war.

The crypto market responded swiftly. BTC jumped from a low of $74,700 to a peak of $83,600, its strongest single-day gain since March 2025. Leading altcoins followed suit, with Ethereum, XRP, Cardano, Solana, and Dogecoin all posting double-digit gains.

The 10% rebound in BTC on April 10 coincided with comments from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who stated that widespread tariff enforcement could trigger a global market correction of up to 20%. However, he also called the situation "an incredible buying opportunity," encouraging investors to act. "I see this more as a buying opportunity than a selling one," said Fink, who also expressed a positive near-term outlook for Bitcoin.

The Trump administration's latest tariff changes affirm Fink's argument that the chaos of the trade war may present seasoned traders with a chance to capitalize on falling prices. Despite lingering bearish risks, many market participants viewed the situation as a green light to reenter the market, turning current uncertainty to their advantage.